Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
turbobloke said:
NicD said:
Firstly, shorting anything should not be lauded.
If it's the correct call, why should it not be lauded?Watching it again, the ERM (or Extending Recession Mechanism as it was called in 1991) was
so eerily familiar to the Euro saga now.
Thank Soros and the other speculators for shorting the £!
fido said:
turbobloke said:
NicD said:
Firstly, shorting anything should not be lauded.
If it's the correct call, why should it not be lauded?Watching it again, the ERM (or Extending Recession Mechanism as it was called in 1991) was
so eerily familiar to the Euro saga now.
Thank Soros and the other speculators for shorting the £!
turbobloke said:
fido said:
turbobloke said:
NicD said:
Firstly, shorting anything should not be lauded.
If it's the correct call, why should it not be lauded?Watching it again, the ERM (or Extending Recession Mechanism as it was called in 1991) was
so eerily familiar to the Euro saga now.
Thank Soros and the other speculators for shorting the £!
To my mind within the capitalist economies of the Western world the likes of Soros and the much less interesting hedge fund runners are acting within the law. It is the function of governments to monitor and control that activity if they feel that such activates are actually becoming inappropriate. Regrettably none of the Western leaders have the faintest idea how to direct or manage individuals such as George Soros and frankly I see no hope of such ineffective politicians managing anything much effectively. Far too preoccupied with keeping their personal seats on the gravy train. Piss up and brewery come to mind.
Soros is predicting that Greece will fall out of the EU because, in his view (and others!) the Greek economy, has never been able to afford to be within the EU, from the start of its membership thereof, and will never be able to afford to remain within the EU. Just a matter of time.
I agree with him. I personally admire and respect the man who is vastly more able and effective than the likes of Camerion, Osbourne, and Co and I will not even compare his abilities and strengths to the idiots in Labour. Imceraitainly applaud the massuve intellect, exceptional foresite and iron nerve of George Soros. Wholly exceptional and gifted man. He certainly does remind ef Henry Kissiinger in that respect. Very few individuals could match either.
fido said:
turbobloke said:
NicD said:
Firstly, shorting anything should not be lauded.
If it's the correct call, why should it not be lauded?Watching it again, the ERM (or Extending Recession Mechanism as it was called in 1991) was
so eerily familiar to the Euro saga now.
Thank Soros and the other speculators for shorting the £!
One question as it stands is everyone in agreement that the UK is in a much better current position than having the € and its issues?
Welshbeef said:
fido said:
turbobloke said:
NicD said:
Firstly, shorting anything should not be lauded.
If it's the correct call, why should it not be lauded?Watching it again, the ERM (or Extending Recession Mechanism as it was called in 1991) was
so eerily familiar to the Euro saga now.
Thank Soros and the other speculators for shorting the £!
One question as it stands is everyone in agreement that the UK is in a much better current position than having the € and its issues?
Seeking to relive economic events and asking the What If? questions, is an interesting excercise. Personally I think the UK entry at that time was very badly timed and appallingly managed (not managed!). I think the events (and Mr Soros) conspired in a way that the government of the day (J Major I think) simply could not forestall and the UK fell out of the exchange rate mechanism as a result of the inability of the government to maage the matter effectively.
Clearly incompetant management of the UK economy is not restricted to Labour.
Fortuitously I do think the UK is in a much better position as a result. It's an I'll wind...........
In reality we are very much better out of the Euro. Angela Merkel may very well find before long that being the Top Dog in the EU is a very poisened chalice indeed. One way or another unless the EU solvent states are prepared to agree to permanently subside the membership of Greece then Greece cannot remain within the EU.
None of the solvent EU states are actualy prepared to pay for any of the losses of Greece. Therefore Greece must default. There can be other resolution. It is precisely why a United Federation of States with central control of taxation, and central control of the economy of the federation, like the USA, can and does subsidise the weaker states and precisely why the EU without that central taxation control cannot manage the position. The politicians know that full well. They are playing this for all it is worth which is a very great deal to them, personally. Staying on the gravy train and looking forward to a very wealthy retirement.
Not good is it? Which is why this is going to end badly.
Yep the UK will do better than most, for the 'average' person, because it's cut social spending and it's not printed money too much.
USA and Europe are screwed in comparison.
I think we're seeing the beginning of the end for the EU now. Trust between countries has now gone given how Greecevhas been treated, and with the USA warmongering to East Europe then internal political stresses in Europe will come to the fore.
What ugliness will go on between now and final collapse is another matter. It might be full Union and the failure soon after ala ussr in the last decade.
I can't see the UK going for ever closer union with the EU in a future referendum if it's failing more and more while we prosper in comparison.
USA and Europe are screwed in comparison.
I think we're seeing the beginning of the end for the EU now. Trust between countries has now gone given how Greecevhas been treated, and with the USA warmongering to East Europe then internal political stresses in Europe will come to the fore.
What ugliness will go on between now and final collapse is another matter. It might be full Union and the failure soon after ala ussr in the last decade.
I can't see the UK going for ever closer union with the EU in a future referendum if it's failing more and more while we prosper in comparison.
Mr Whippy said:
Yep the UK will do better than most, for the 'average' person, because it's cut social spending and it's not printed money too much.
USA and Europe are screwed in comparison.
I think we're seeing the beginning of the end for the EU now. Trust between countries has now gone given how Greecevhas been treated, and with the USA warmongering to East Europe then internal political stresses in Europe will come to the fore.
What ugliness will go on between now and final collapse is another matter. It might be full Union and the failure soon after ala ussr in the last decade.
I can't see the UK going for ever closer union with the EU in a future referendum if it's failing more and more while we prosper in comparison.
You are essentially correct in your view. USA and Europe are screwed in comparison.
I think we're seeing the beginning of the end for the EU now. Trust between countries has now gone given how Greecevhas been treated, and with the USA warmongering to East Europe then internal political stresses in Europe will come to the fore.
What ugliness will go on between now and final collapse is another matter. It might be full Union and the failure soon after ala ussr in the last decade.
I can't see the UK going for ever closer union with the EU in a future referendum if it's failing more and more while we prosper in comparison.
Clearly Greece has not recovered, in any way whatsoever, economically and will not recover because such an economic recovery is completely beyond the resources of Greece. There hhas been a steadfast continuous dive in the economy of Greece without one single economic indicator showing even hope of the slightest improvement in the Greek economy. Despite the multi billions loaned (supposedly: in realty Billions thrown away) to Greece, the Greek economy which was already insolvent before these extra loans were added from the EU, is in an even more insolvent position new and collapse is staring both the EU and Greece straight in the face.
Watching the drama unfold is not much fun at all for the EU or for the individual solvent states within the EU, who are going to pick up the tab theselves because there is no one else to pick up the tab. The EU is desperately trying to cobble together some form of wording for a new EU agreement with Greece and a new "solution" that actually has some vague possibility of working. The credibility of the whole process is wearing very, very, thin and clearly, Greece is not going to recover.
The latest efforts by the EU to progess this fiddle, amount to not a lot, but as the BBC reports unsurprisingly another nonsense attempt at extending this farce is current
see http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32105897.
There simply is no longer a credible logic for this mess to be extended except that by extending the mess, the EU politicians can all continue to stay on the gravy train themselves. The " proposals" by Greece are simply a wish list of the Greek politicias and totally empty promises from start to finish.
What have Syriza Greek government actually done? Introduce left wing polices (Oh that's really going to help!) and promised less hardship and more employment within Greece and more Greek civil servants and better pensions to the Greek electors. Ths is shoddy window dressing of the worst kind and it is deeply disturbing to see such pathetic nonsense promulgated as the saviour of the economy of the country.
It really is just a matter if time after three years of unfullfilled nonsense promises the EU is reduced to still pretending all will be well. It won't! Just as it as not been well for the last three years. The steady decline of Greece economically has become ever more visible and steadily continuing ever downward. Default is coming.
Mr Whippy said:
Yep the UK will do better than most, for the 'average' person, because it's cut social spending and it's not printed money too much.
Are you sure about this? Surely EZ countries problems stem from lack of stimulus, hence Mario now having to do it now? And whilst they were sat on their hands we were printing like buggery. Right or wrong on the reasons, I think you've made a bad call here...
Andy Zarse said:
Are you sure about this?
Surely EZ countries problems stem from lack of stimulus, hence Mario now having to do it now? And whilst they were sat on their hands we were printing like buggery. Right or wrong on the reasons, I think you've made a bad call here...
I can't remember all the details but given we've got this far since we printed money without apparent issues it's likely the cost will be more diffused if default deleveraging deflation proper occurs.Surely EZ countries problems stem from lack of stimulus, hence Mario now having to do it now? And whilst they were sat on their hands we were printing like buggery. Right or wrong on the reasons, I think you've made a bad call here...
While QE infinity USA and Japan, and now Europe, are printing when it's clearly too late and their money just seems to go into a hole in comparison.
I won't pretend I know all the ins and outs, but I assume no one does because if they did based on 2009 projections we'd be back on track by now with money to spare and global growth roaring forward.
I agree though that stimulus would be a good thing, done right. I'm certain in 2009 on here I suggested the same, spend billions on infrastructure for our future, not on bailouts and trying to put liquidity into banks so they lend. Give direct to business that will build for our future growth.
That has been the biggest cock up for the UK imo. if we do money printing again it should be on roads, railways, ports, quick internet everywhere, etc etc. NO more money to banks, let them fail of they still haven't deleveraged enough by now!
Steffan said:
The latest efforts by the EU to progess this fiddle, amount to not a lot, but as the BBC reports unsurprisingly another nonsense attempt at extending this farce is current
see http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32105897.
see http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32105897.
BBC said:
The plan includes moves to combat tax evasion, more privatisations...
So in other words, the new offer is for Syriza to re-agree to the conditions the previous Greek government agreed to.I do wish they had the willpower to either go back or move forward with a proper federal union.
maffski said:
So in other words, the new offer is for Syriza to re-agree to the conditions the previous Greek government agreed to.
I do wish they had the willpower to either go back or move forward with a proper federal union.
I thought I heard a familiar, tinny rattle over the weekend.I do wish they had the willpower to either go back or move forward with a proper federal union.
David McWilliams reckons the left/right paradigm is irrelevant. The EZ is all about insiders and outsides.
Article
Article
DMcW said:
Because we are now in an electoral cycle, the conventional parties need to crush Syriza to crush the other nonconformist parties and show their own electorates what voting in a nonconformist way leads to.
When looking at politics in mature democracies, I prefer to use the term insider vs outsider, rather than right vs left, urban vs rural or conservative vs liberal, to describe the electoral fault lines.
The insiders are those, literally, on the inside. They are the people with influence, with a voice at the table, those with a stake in the society. Insiders can either be on the left or the right. They can be traditional public sector trade unions who want no reform or they can be bank bosses who want a bailout. Their game plan is to gouge the state and extract as much rent as possible for their members and interests.
Insiders are organised. They are part of the process of politics and their concerns are listened to by the state. In short, they have access to power and can influence the way it is deployed.
When looking at politics in mature democracies, I prefer to use the term insider vs outsider, rather than right vs left, urban vs rural or conservative vs liberal, to describe the electoral fault lines.
The insiders are those, literally, on the inside. They are the people with influence, with a voice at the table, those with a stake in the society. Insiders can either be on the left or the right. They can be traditional public sector trade unions who want no reform or they can be bank bosses who want a bailout. Their game plan is to gouge the state and extract as much rent as possible for their members and interests.
Insiders are organised. They are part of the process of politics and their concerns are listened to by the state. In short, they have access to power and can influence the way it is deployed.
Edited by Art0ir on Monday 30th March 11:03
rovermorris999 said:
Walford said:
I think there would be masive support for going back to say 1980 common market
Indeed, that's what we thought we were voting for when we last had the chance in 1975. We were sold a pup though.I think it is a moot point whether, Harold Wilson, who was generally reckoned to be the best economist of his generation, really knew what he was doing? Certainly I am at a complete loss to understand how anyone can seriously support the transparent dishonesty of the EU as it has become. Continuing to throw Billions of Euros into a totally insolent Sovereign country, whist pretending that this a secured loan, knowing full well that the Country borrowing the money, cannot and will not recover economically, is outright fraud, on the higest scale. In this case the taxpayers of the solvent EU states will be picking up the whole tab and losing Billions in the process.
How Angela Merkel can assent to this I have no idea. But she is clearly assenting to this madness, and supporting it personally. In the end she will prove to be utterly wrong in that assent and her reputation will plummet along with that of the other self serving leaders of the EU. Greece is so obviously not able to recover that I find the finanvil charade being enacted by the EU just awful to witness.
It is said that in modern democracies, the electorate get the government they deserve. In which case the electorate of the Solvent States of the EU states must be deserving of a very hard time because that is where this is most certainly going!
Mr Whippy said:
While QE infinity USA and Japan, and now Europe, are printing when it's clearly too late and their money just seems to go into a hole in comparison.
The US stopped QE last October at a total $4.5tr, which at a 1/4 of GDP is almost exactly where the BoE stopped 2 years earlier (£375bn).Mr Whippy said:
I won't pretend I know all the ins and outs
Well lets start with the basics; all QE is, is the Central Bank creating money in order to BUY Government bonds from anyone willing to sell them. They do not just give the money to banks, thank god, they don't have that mandate. They do not just give the money to construction companies to build roads either. They BUY government bonds, that's it. YOU can get some of that lovely QE cash exactly the same way Goldman Sachs or PIMCO does, by selling Government bonds. As a point of fact UK Banks holdings of government bonds increased during UK QE; ergo net they did not receive a single penny of the QE cash! If government wishes to issue more bonds and invest in infrastructure then the treasury could do exactly that, absolutely nothing stopping them, QE or no QE.IMO European QE will fail. QE buys governments time by keeping a lid on their borrowing costs which otherwise would likely soar, in this respect the ECB will succeed. Unfortunately the EU and european governments will not use that time to generate economic growth or restructure their entitlements but will procrastinate, can kick and point fingers. It's so sad because its all so predictable.
Well I thought Government Bonds were issued by the government. So I bought the Bond off the government via a bank/financial body. Or the central bank buys the bond off the government.
I didn't think I could sell a government bond to a central bank who had 'made up money' to be able to buy it off me.
How can I sell a government bond for QE cash. I'm not a government unfortunately.
Hmmmm
I didn't think I could sell a government bond to a central bank who had 'made up money' to be able to buy it off me.
How can I sell a government bond for QE cash. I'm not a government unfortunately.
Hmmmm
Mr Whippy said:
Well I thought Government Bonds were issued by the government. So I bought the Bond off the government via a bank/financial body. Or the central bank buys the bond off the government.
Spot on. Although the CB buys the bonds via the market, not directly from government to avoid the appearance of monetization.Mr Whippy said:
I didn't think I could sell a government bond to a central bank who had 'made up money' to be able to buy it off me.
Sure you can. You sell back to the bank/financial body you mentioned above. Of course you can't dicatate that they then sell to the central bank on your behalf but effectively thats what happens during QE due to the massive amount of buying the central bank is doing.Mr Whippy said:
How can I sell a government bond for QE cash. I'm not a government unfortunately.
You don't have to be a government to sell a government bond, you just have to own or borrow one to sell. Same as everyone else. You refer to banks being given QE cash, the point is, like everyone, in order to 'receive QE cash' you have to sell government bonds to the central bank regardless of whether you're Mr Whippy or Goldman Sachs.(as a matter of a technicality in the UK you'll sell via intermediaries firstly your broker and secondly the GEMMs who are 'the banks', not directly to the BoE, but that's irrelevant to the discussion)
Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 30th March 17:30
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