Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Steffan]

Just spotted a BBC article which I think worthwhile posting see:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32335758

Germany seems to be suggesting the Greeks are most welcome to seek funds elsewhere if Greece can? From the comments of the German finance men is seems a somewhat difficult task. Syriza seem entrenched in refusing to make any worthwhile economic changes. Does not look good does it?

[Mr Whippy]

Steffan said:

Just spotted a BBC article which I think worthwhile posting see:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32335758

Germany seems to be suggesting the Greeks are most welcome to seek funds elsewhere if Greece can? From the comments of the German finance men is seems a somewhat difficult task. Syriza seem entrenched in refusing to make any worthwhile economic changes. Does not look good does it?

Like I said some pages back, Germany has set the tone and message for how 'poor' members will be treated.

Greek has no hope and when it does finally go the Euro is screwed as the rest of the Pigs won't be happy to go the way of Greece under German dictatorship.

I honestly think the show right now is all about manoeuvring for the big cheeses to get out in one piece with their wealth intact.
The elected and unelected lot running the public show will be the sheep to the slaughter while the wolves sneak out the back door.

[gruffalo]

A couple of recent articles have been setting the expectation that Greece will default and effectively drop out of the monetary union while keeping the Euro as a currency.

I can't really work out how that would work, can anyone explain how in practice you could have a common currency that would have to end up being worth more in one country than another?

[Steffan]

gruffalo said:

A couple of recent articles have been setting the expectation that Greece will default and effectively drop out of the monetary union while keeping the Euro as a currency.

I can't really work out how that would work, can anyone explain how in practice you could have a common currency that would have to end up being worth more in one country than another?

In a word No! I personally cannot see how this could successfully operate.

However there are a number of market watchers and very bright individuals on here and somebody may be able to extrapolate a method of how this could be wangled through? I think outright default is very much more probable. One currency with different values in different countries seems impossible to me but perhaps someone can offer a possible method? My bet (perhaps predictably) is that Greece will default and then there will be a real kerfuffle over who pays which will result in major losses for the solvent European currency members.

[PRTVR]

Steffan said:

gruffalo said:

A couple of recent articles have been setting the expectation that Greece will default and effectively drop out of the monetary union while keeping the Euro as a currency.

I can't really work out how that would work, can anyone explain how in practice you could have a common currency that would have to end up being worth more in one country than another?

In a word No! I personally cannot see how this could successfully operate.

However there are a number of market watchers and very bright individuals on here and somebody may be able to extrapolate a method of how this could be wangled through? I think outright default is very much more probable. One currency with different values in different countries seems impossible to me but perhaps someone can offer a possible method? My bet (perhaps predictably) is that Greece will default and then there will be a real kerfuffle over who pays which will result in major losses for the solvent European currency members.

My son was in Malta last year, he commenced on how cheap it was, perhaps that is the way forward for some counties, use the Euro, but for all internal prices will be cut say a beer costs €4 drop it €2 wages will drop at the same rate, this should stimulate the holiday market and provide more jobs along with foreign income, the problem comes with commodities that have to be bought from abroad, fuel etc, perhaps subsidies certain items would be possible.

[SilverSixer]

PRTVR said:

Steffan said:

gruffalo said:

A couple of recent articles have been setting the expectation that Greece will default and effectively drop out of the monetary union while keeping the Euro as a currency.

I can't really work out how that would work, can anyone explain how in practice you could have a common currency that would have to end up being worth more in one country than another?

In a word No! I personally cannot see how this could successfully operate.

However there are a number of market watchers and very bright individuals on here and somebody may be able to extrapolate a method of how this could be wangled through? I think outright default is very much more probable. One currency with different values in different countries seems impossible to me but perhaps someone can offer a possible method? My bet (perhaps predictably) is that Greece will default and then there will be a real kerfuffle over who pays which will result in major losses for the solvent European currency members.

My son was in Malta last year, he commenced on how cheap it was, perhaps that is the way forward for some counties, use the Euro, but for all internal prices will be cut say a beer costs €4 drop it €2 wages will drop at the same rate, this should stimulate the holiday market and provide more jobs along with foreign income, the problem comes with commodities that have to be bought from abroad, fuel etc, perhaps subsidies certain items would be possible.

This is how Montenegro works at the moment. Ironically, they are barred from both EU and Euro membership due to the fact that they don't have their own independent currency as a starting point. But they carry on using the Euro. They're not exactly rolling in it and there are social problems - but it seems to work OK. their only industry is tourism, essentially. Bit of wine export but not much.

[gruffalo]

So in that case locally produced items that require no imported raw materials would be cheap, every thing else imported would be expensive. This would intern drive investment in local industry, employment and tax revenue, all good things for Greece.

It would put Greece in a great position for exports as they also would seem really cheap to the rest of Europe.

If the Greek population were to accept the lack of access to imported goods and actually working and paying tax this could well work for them over the mid to long term, short term it will be painful.

May be going to Greece next year for our holidays again;-)

[Borghetto]

gruffalo said:

So in that case locally produced items that require no imported raw materials would be cheap, every thing else imported would be expensive. This would intern drive investment in local industry, employment and tax revenue, all good things for Greece.

It would put Greece in a great position for exports as they also would seem really cheap to the rest of Europe.

If the Greek population were to accept the lack of access to imported goods and actually working and paying tax this could well work for them over the mid to long term, short term it will be painful.

May be going to Greece next year for our holidays again;-)

What exports does Greece have that anybody else wants to buy? I can think of only olive oil, maybe some wine, but nothing that is likely to make a great deal of difference. Only tourism will boost their fx income and then only if they don't elect some barmy govt like New Dawn.

[gruffalo]

Borghetto said:

gruffalo said:

So in that case locally produced items that require no imported raw materials would be cheap, every thing else imported would be expensive. This would intern drive investment in local industry, employment and tax revenue, all good things for Greece.

It would put Greece in a great position for exports as they also would seem really cheap to the rest of Europe.

If the Greek population were to accept the lack of access to imported goods and actually working and paying tax this could well work for them over the mid to long term, short term it will be painful.

May be going to Greece next year for our holidays again;-)

What exports does Greece have that anybody else wants to buy? I can think of only olive oil, maybe some wine, but nothing that is likely to make a great deal of difference. Only tourism will boost their fx income and then only if they don't elect some barmy govt like New Dawn.

Yes tourism will probably return to being a major contributor, comodity export wise it will have to be mostly food products as I do not believe they have much in the way of raw material wealth.

Mind you it is a lot of Package holidays, Yogurt, Honey and Olive Oil to pay off their debt.

[Steffan]

Borghetto said:

gruffalo said:

So in that case locally produced items that require no imported raw materials would be cheap, every thing else imported would be expensive. This would intern drive investment in local industry, employment and tax revenue, all good things for Greece.

It would put Greece in a great position for exports as they also would seem really cheap to the rest of Europe.

If the Greek population were to accept the lack of access to imported goods and actually working and paying tax this could well work for them over the mid to long term, short term it will be painful.

May be going to Greece next year for our holidays again;-)

What exports does Greece have that anybody else wants to buy? I can think of only olive oil, maybe some wine, but nothing that is likely to make a great deal of difference. Only tourism will boost their fx income and then only if they don't elect some barmy govt like New Dawn.

Spot on IMO. With a very left wing government like Syriza bent on not actually addressing any of the multitude of most serious ills within the Greek economy in any way whatsoever then, default by Greece, is inevitable. Whether the EU and IMF can mount a subsistance program to help the poor trapped within this mess remains to be seen. I do hope they will make an attempt to do so.

But default is inevitable given the game of cat and mouse that Greece and the EU have ended up in together. With threats and counter threats.. Greece will not reform it's economy. The Greek economy is totally insolvent. There has been no recovery whatsoever and therefore, default has become inevitable. Will it be before or after the latest additional sums being demanded by Greece? With threats from the EU? Will the latest tranche of yet more debt have been thrown away by the EU unable to find a workable solition? Those really are the only questions now.

[maffski]

gruffalo said:

Mind you it is a lot of Package holidays, Yogurt, Honey and Olive Oil to pay off their debt.

Tourism isn't just two weeks in the sun though, with cheap accommodation and food costs you can make gains in a whole bunch of areas like education, health care and foreign retirees.

[Steffan]

maffski said:

gruffalo said:

Mind you it is a lot of Package holidays, Yogurt, Honey and Olive Oil to pay off their debt.

Tourism isn't just two weeks in the sun though, with cheap accommodation and food costs you can make gains in a whole bunch of areas like education, health care and foreign retirees.

Recovery is possible for failing economies but only if the will exists to introduce effective reform to the economy of the affected country. Greece has steadily borrowed more and more lovely subsidy from the EU and made no effective attempts to repay any of this relying on more and more handouts to even manage to pay the interest off these debts,, let alone the capital sums. Greece has steadfastly refused to either admit, recognise, or admit the reality of the abject sutdy in insolvency that the Greek economy has become.

Greece fiddled the figures to get into the EU initially and fiddled their remaining within the EU, with the connivance of the EU itself. Once this collapses there will be one hell of a kerfuffle within the EU with very serious questions being asked about the conduct of many of the main players in this mess. The losses will be paid for by the solvent states, because they are solvent. But there are going to be some major ructions before then!

Latest from the BBC asks the question once again see:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32332221

[YankeePorker]

Just a precision, I suppose it depends on your definition of solvent!

Steffan said:

The losses will be paid for by the solvent other states, because they are solvent can still borrow money. But there are going to be some major ructions before then!

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

Latest from the BBC asks the question once again see:

Steffan

The reality is there are so many questions, simply not enough credible answers - but "they"are in charge.

The Greek accident will happen, be patient.

[Steffan]

YankeePorker said:

I still regard the definition of solvency using the old defintion which was "Being able to pay your debts as and when they fall due." Whether this is still the best definition is a moot point.

To my mind Greece is now so insolvent following three wasted years under this EU "Solution" which clearly was deliberate misrepresentation, that to suggest that Greece could ever repay these debts is plainly nonsense.

The situation is getting worse by the day. The EU can still (And may still) throw more Bllions at Greece but none of these "Loans" will ever be repid by Greece. Just a question of when now! The pathetic cat and mouse game does neither side credit.

[Borghetto]

What this whole sorry episode illustrates, is how difficult it is to take back money/benefits from any group once given. Quite clearly this and previous Greek Governments have built up a huge client base amongst their supporters. These voters/clients have become so used to the State's largess, that they believe they are entitled to live at this elevated level, quite out of balance with their or the States ability to earn. A parallel with the UK under a labour Government isn't difficult to draw. If you look back to Brown's desperate last months in office and his giveaways, we might have gone down a similar track to the Greeks - of course with our own currency, the markets would have been much quicker to bring us to heel. Let's just hope Miliband/Balls and co have learn't the lesson - though I somehow doubt it. Politicians as we know love to give other peoples money away.

[Art0ir]

Borghetto said:

What this whole sorry episode illustrates, is how difficult it is to take back money/benefits from any group once given. Quite clearly this and previous Greek Governments have built up a huge client base amongst their supporters. These voters/clients have become so used to the State's largess, that they believe they are entitled to live at this elevated level, quite out of balance with their or the States ability to earn. A parallel with the UK under a labour Government isn't difficult to draw. If you look back to Brown's desperate last months in office and his giveaways, we might have gone down a similar track to the Greeks - of course with our own currency, the markets would have been much quicker to bring us to heel. Let's just hope Miliband/Balls and co have learn't the lesson - though I somehow doubt it. Politicians as we know love to give other peoples money away.

Last night's debate was terrifying.

More debt for future generations - applause and cheering.

Cut the deficit and reduce spending - silence.

[anonymous-user]

Borghetto said:

A parallel with the UK...

It was impossible to read without thinking the exact same! Many other countries too I suppose.

[Welshbeef]

Art0ir said:

Last night's debate was terrifying.

More debt for future generations - applause and cheering.

Cut the deficit and reduce spending - silence.

And this is where Farage was a super star he smashed their back doors in demanding why our children and grandchildren and great grandchildren should pay for our errors? Refusal to accept our collective error and take the pain instead ph fk off someone else can pay.

Surely you want to pass onto future generations not the mess we leave behind but prosperity and low /diminishing debt. Instead it looks like we will have great pensions own our houses retire early free uni. Whereas they will have massive student debt, very small retirement funds much later retirement and might not even get onto the property ladder until well into their 40's+.
Please tell me why I should make my children suffer? And I'd apply that to every family in the UK. Shameful for those who think it's fine.

[Steffan]

Welshbeef said:

Art0ir said:

Last night's debate was terrifying.

More debt for future generations - applause and cheering.

Cut the deficit and reduce spending - silence.

And this is where Farage was a super star he smashed their back doors in demanding why our children and grandchildren and great grandchildren should pay for our errors? Refusal to accept our collective error and take the pain instead ph fk off someone else can pay.

Surely you want to pass onto future generations not the mess we leave behind but prosperity and low /diminishing debt. Instead it looks like we will have great pensions own our houses retire early free uni. Whereas they will have massive student debt, very small retirement funds much later retirement and might not even get onto the property ladder until well into their 40's+.
Please tell me why I should make my children suffer? And I'd apply that to every family in the UK. Shameful for those who think it's fine.

I must agree foisting our overborrowing and overspending onto our children cannot be right. Regrettably that has become the approach most popular with politicians in many countries including sadly, the UK. France is yet another prime example of this approach and as DJRC reminded us years ago, France is toast and that really is visibly becoming absolutely inevitable.

Personally were I some 40 years younger with small children I would be looking at emigrating to Canada, New Zealand, the USA, or Australia. No guarantees of success but these countries require much more self reliance from their electorate, which makes social security more affordable, and have massive untapped natural resources still waiting to be used sensibly. There are difficulties in that choice, but the overcrowding and overpopulation of the UK will only worsen with time. Not somewhere I would want to be personally given the youthful energy needed to make such changes. However I am 40 years too old so here I will stay.

The UK has been a great place for me to live within, I have really had a very full life here. But I can see serious structural financial problems being compounded like the steadily growing burden of the retired, the unfunded and unfundable state pensions, and the pernicious growth of debt, both governmental and personal, all burgeoning steadily and there will
inevitably be unpleasant consequences in the UK. For those reasons I woud be voting with my feet. These problems are not going to be admitted or recognised by UK politicians.

Cameron seems to have made a fundamental error of judgement in refusing to appear in these debates. I suspect it's because he knows he is crap at keeping his temper when losing in a debate and therefore refuses to appear. Could cost his party dear but with the mighty Boris coming into parliament again I hold little hope for Cameron politically anyway. Cameron is a lightweight at best. Boris is most certainly not.


Apologies for the addendum here because it is a link to an R Peston BBC link.

I do appreciate R Peston is not everybodies brew on PH, but I do think is worth a read and very relevant to this thread.

Much more direct than Peston usually is, which tells its own story:

http://m.bbc.com/news/business-32335756

Edited by Steffan on Friday 17th April 19:21