Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Mermaid said:
If he's right about the geopolitics, perhaps the government in Greece can persuade the USA to underwrite the next round of can-kicking? 
Doesn't every member state have to join the Euro by 2020 including the U.K.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10935...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10935...
Edited by retrorider on Monday 20th April 18:36
t Sherlock!Mr Whippy said:
The thing is, that is how it's always worked. Debt today will be cheaper to re-finance tomorrow. OK to an extent... assuming perpetual growth of economies.
We think Greece is in a bad spot now, but we'll all be in that bad spot soon if the global economy doesn't pick up and boom again... and the signs are increasingly that it's going to deflate and do it rather hard...
Future generations won't be paying for this debt, WE will in the very near future as everything is reset because it'll be the only realistic way we can move forward.
All I'll say is own what you own outright. Or with unsecured finance... a poo storm approaches.
Dave
I'm in Germany at the moment, banks are offering mortgages fixed at less than 2% for 20 years...they don't expect a poo storm.We think Greece is in a bad spot now, but we'll all be in that bad spot soon if the global economy doesn't pick up and boom again... and the signs are increasingly that it's going to deflate and do it rather hard...
Future generations won't be paying for this debt, WE will in the very near future as everything is reset because it'll be the only realistic way we can move forward.
All I'll say is own what you own outright. Or with unsecured finance... a poo storm approaches.
Dave
NicD said:
Hmmm, yes. I don't think we needed Fabre to tell us that, it's what many on here have been saying for a very long time.Kawasicki said:
I'm in Germany at the moment, banks are offering mortgages fixed at less than 2% for 20 years...they don't expect a poo storm.
How do mortgage rates and bank mainstream lending sentiment impact the likelihood of a poo storm?20yr fixed at 2% is pretty suggestive that the EZ expects inflation to stay very low and thus central bank interest rates.
That alone isn't reassuring if you want to deflate debt liabilities over almost a generation.
Annuity rates suggest the same over a similar timeframe.
Poo will hit the fan as growth slows, deflation bites, and more countries succumb to their debts.
Greece is the first frog in the pan of boiling water to wriggle, a pan that we're all in whether we accept it or not.
But while QE flows confidence will be high.
And rates/mortgage terms were great right before Northern Rock went tits up. Confidence high, till it's not
EskimoArapaho said:
Greek government tries to close the stable door after the horse has bolted: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102601803
Crazy. They're going to need that money to eat in a few weeks time. Why not default now, the writing is on the wall in massive letters.Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 21st April 07:27
retrorider said:
Doesn't every member state have to join the Euro by 2020 including the U.K.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10935...
No, obviously not.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10935...
Mr Whippy said:
Kawasicki said:
I'm in Germany at the moment, banks are offering mortgages fixed at less than 2% for 20 years...they don't expect a poo storm.
How do mortgage rates and bank mainstream lending sentiment impact the likelihood of a poo storm?20yr fixed at 2% is pretty suggestive that the EZ expects inflation to stay very low and thus central bank interest rates.
That alone isn't reassuring if you want to deflate debt liabilities over almost a generation.
Annuity rates suggest the same over a similar timeframe.
Poo will hit the fan as growth slows, deflation bites, and more countries succumb to their debts.
Greece is the first frog in the pan of boiling water to wriggle, a pan that we're all in whether we accept it or not.
But while QE flows confidence will be high.
And rates/mortgage terms were great right before Northern Rock went tits up. Confidence high, till it's not
Some reading for Kawasiki: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=ecb+negative+interest+rates
Digga said:
Exactly. When the banks are being charged to 'store' money by ECB, the inference is clear; get lending. This is stimulus and that has nothing (rational) to do with future expectations.
Some reading for Kawasiki: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=ecb+negative+interest+rates
Thanks Digga & Mr Whippy.Some reading for Kawasiki: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=ecb+negative+interest+rates
Amongst the wreckage and detritus of the Greek situation comes this slightly amazing stat.
ECB have through the ELA instrument process lent a further $74bn to the Greek banks, to prevent the inevitable Grexit and default.
ELA may ONLY be used as an instrument if there is a credible plan to return to solvency.... some big laughs all round.
But consider the actual number. ELA has lent almost as much as ONE THIRD again of the original size of bailouts, on what is effectively a nod and a wink to prevent the full blown banking crisis.
Look at the depositor numbers, share prices and capital flight. It is happening everyday, and nothing, but nothing in the current Syriza position or the Greek economy can save it.
Can anyone on PH robust expound a scenario where Greece doesn't go bust and does re pay its debts ?
Gargamel said:
Amongst the wreckage and detritus of the Greek situation comes this slightly amazing stat.
ECB have through the ELA instrument process lent a further $74bn to the Greek banks, to prevent the inevitable Grexit and default.
ELA may ONLY be used as an instrument if there is a credible plan to return to solvency.... some big laughs all round.
But consider the actual number. ELA has lent almost as much as ONE THIRD again of the original size of bailouts, on what is effectively a nod and a wink to prevent the full blown banking crisis.
Look at the depositor numbers, share prices and capital flight. It is happening everyday, and nothing, but nothing in the current Syriza position or the Greek economy can save it.
Can anyone on PH robust expound a scenario where Greece doesn't go bust and does re pay its debts ?
My thoughts entirely.ECB have through the ELA instrument process lent a further $74bn to the Greek banks, to prevent the inevitable Grexit and default.
ELA may ONLY be used as an instrument if there is a credible plan to return to solvency.... some big laughs all round.
But consider the actual number. ELA has lent almost as much as ONE THIRD again of the original size of bailouts, on what is effectively a nod and a wink to prevent the full blown banking crisis.
Look at the depositor numbers, share prices and capital flight. It is happening everyday, and nothing, but nothing in the current Syriza position or the Greek economy can save it.
Can anyone on PH robust expound a scenario where Greece doesn't go bust and does re pay its debts ?
For all the nonsense spouted by the EU leaders and EU employees like Draghi and co Greece is going bust and there is no way for the EU to claw this mess back! The EU simply cannot correct the deliberate refusal of Syriza to face reality and successive governments in Greece have taken every penny they can borrow and it is never every coming back.
All the interest is going to be written off. So is all the capital.Financial disaster on a massive scale? Precisely what the EU said would never happen?
Real question now that the reality of the collapse and dropout of Greece is upon the EU what are the realities of the consequences to the EU and Greece?
Gargamel said:
Amongst the wreckage and detritus of the Greek situation comes this slightly amazing stat.
ECB have through the ELA instrument process lent a further $74bn to the Greek banks, to prevent the inevitable Grexit and default.
ELA may ONLY be used as an instrument if there is a credible plan to return to solvency.... some big laughs all round.
But consider the actual number. ELA has lent almost as much as ONE THIRD again of the original size of bailouts, on what is effectively a nod and a wink to prevent the full blown banking crisis.
Look at the depositor numbers, share prices and capital flight. It is happening everyday, and nothing, but nothing in the current Syriza position or the Greek economy can save it.
Can anyone on PH robust expound a scenario where Greece doesn't go bust and does re pay its debts ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_republicECB have through the ELA instrument process lent a further $74bn to the Greek banks, to prevent the inevitable Grexit and default.
ELA may ONLY be used as an instrument if there is a credible plan to return to solvency.... some big laughs all round.
But consider the actual number. ELA has lent almost as much as ONE THIRD again of the original size of bailouts, on what is effectively a nod and a wink to prevent the full blown banking crisis.
Look at the depositor numbers, share prices and capital flight. It is happening everyday, and nothing, but nothing in the current Syriza position or the Greek economy can save it.
Can anyone on PH robust expound a scenario where Greece doesn't go bust and does re pay its debts ?
Gargamel said:
Can anyone on PH robust expound a scenario where Greece doesn't go bust and does re pay its debts?
Greece is 'taken over' by the EU.Some kind of emergency situation, unprecedented action, security of the Euro Zone and European Union, blah blah, make us scared.
A completely EU led government removes their sovereignty and Greece becomes the first true state of the EU.
Heavy oppression on the people living there, state provided jobs to secure the recovery, borders across euro closed during 'the transition' for security, safety, prosperity, all the best of Orwell's double-speak, etc etc... neo-socialist heartland.
Heavy propaganda showing the rest of Europe how lovely Greece now is, how we're all better off for averting disaster, yadda yadda.
Italy and Spain follow suit in the next 5 years, with the rest shortly afterwards.
Welcome to neo-socialist EU... the one that the Consevatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour all want us to be in ever closer union with. Yay! No thanks.
Dave
Gargamel said:
Amongst the wreckage and detritus of the Greek situation comes this slightly amazing stat.
ECB have through the ELA instrument process lent a further $74bn to the Greek banks, to prevent the inevitable Grexit and default.
ELA may ONLY be used as an instrument if there is a credible plan to return to solvency.... some big laughs all round.
But consider the actual number. ELA has lent almost as much as ONE THIRD again of the original size of bailouts, on what is effectively a nod and a wink to prevent the full blown banking crisis.
Look at the depositor numbers, share prices and capital flight. It is happening everyday, and nothing, but nothing in the current Syriza position or the Greek economy can save it.
Can anyone on PH robust expound a scenario where Greece doesn't go bust and does re pay its debts ?
My thoughts entirely.ECB have through the ELA instrument process lent a further $74bn to the Greek banks, to prevent the inevitable Grexit and default.
ELA may ONLY be used as an instrument if there is a credible plan to return to solvency.... some big laughs all round.
But consider the actual number. ELA has lent almost as much as ONE THIRD again of the original size of bailouts, on what is effectively a nod and a wink to prevent the full blown banking crisis.
Look at the depositor numbers, share prices and capital flight. It is happening everyday, and nothing, but nothing in the current Syriza position or the Greek economy can save it.
Can anyone on PH robust expound a scenario where Greece doesn't go bust and does re pay its debts ?
For all the nonsense spouted by the EU leaders and EU employees like Draghi and co Greece is going bust and there is no way for the EU to claw this mess back! The EU simply cannot correct the inevitable consequences of the deliberate refusal of Syriza to face reality and that successive governments in Greece have taken every penny they can borrow and it is never, ever, coming back.
All the interest is going to be written off. So is all the capital.Financial disaster on a massive scale? Precisely what the EU said would never happen?
Real question now that the reality of the collapse and dropout of Greece is upon the EU must surely be, what are the realities of the consequences to the EU and Greece? Furthermore what are the consequences to the other failing states?
I am highly suspicious that, given that the EU have failed utterly to see this coming, at all, there are going to be major ructions within the financial community as to whether the EU is the secure and safe and well administered organization it purports to be. It would seem the evidence in this affair must beg the question?
Greece will presumably return to the Drachma. The Russian nonsense seems to me to be so much hot air given the perilous state of the Russian economy itself. I am very hopeful that the EU will offer humanitarian assistance to Greece because I can see conditions there getting very poor indeed, very, very quickly.
Getting to the point where even the main media are anticipating the collapse of Greece? My mind is casting back to the early days of this thread, years ago, when umpteen contributors suggested I was completely demented to suggest that the failing states within the EU were heading for disaster. Not a lot of that now! I am of course, distinctly demented: but I do think I am on the money with this matter.
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