Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

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Discussion

rovermorris999

5,195 posts

188 months

Wednesday 6th May 2015
quotequote all
I hope they've not been so worried about the eurozone situation that they've copied the Oozulum bird. smile

Edited by rovermorris999 on Wednesday 6th May 16:35

Gargamel

14,957 posts

260 months

Wednesday 6th May 2015
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DJ is putting the English Cricket team straight over in Sports.

Andy has retired to live an (even more) playboy lifestyle after his Euro Shorting strategy paid off.

Actually just think we are all bored with the same st every week. Crisis meeting this, Eurocrat shoots mouth off that, Greeks continue to drag feet all over, Cans kicked, and STILL NO END OF THE BLOODY EURO.

Still, we only have to be right once. Draghi and Super Mario, The Drunkard and Oily Rehn have to be right every day. silly



RYH64E

7,960 posts

243 months

Wednesday 6th May 2015
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Gargamel said:
Still, we only have to be right once. Draghi and Super Mario, The Drunkard and Oily Rehn have to be right every day. silly
You're still making the same mistake of expecting a logical outcome to the situation, but this is more about politics than economics and there's nothing logical about politics. They don't have to right every day, they don't have to right at all, they just have to keep kicking the can along the road and the euro will continue plodding on and on and on, much like this thread...

Gargamel

14,957 posts

260 months

Wednesday 6th May 2015
quotequote all
RYH64E said:
You're still making the same mistake of expecting a logical outcome to the situation, but this is more about politics than economics and there's nothing logical about politics. They don't have to right every day, they don't have to right at all, they just have to keep kicking the can along the road and the euro will continue plodding on and on and on, much like this thread...
Agreed, this has moved way beyond logic (it never really was) past reason, into comedy and now beyond farce.

In the end though I still feel a deep sense of tragedy that people, actual humans in Greece have been thrown to the wolves, their hopes, aspirations, careers, pensions and healthcare all crush in the name of a dogma, a single currency.

It remains a massive vanity project, that has caused real hardship and misery to millions of Europeans.

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Wednesday 6th May 2015
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
RYH64E said:
You're still making the same mistake of expecting a logical outcome to the situation, but this is more about politics than economics and there's nothing logical about politics. They don't have to right every day, they don't have to right at all, they just have to keep kicking the can along the road and the euro will continue plodding on and on and on, much like this thread...
Agreed, this has moved way beyond logic (it never really was) past reason, into comedy and now beyond farce.

In the end though I still feel a deep sense of tragedy that people, actual humans in Greece have been thrown to the wolves, their hopes, aspirations, careers, pensions and healthcare all crush in the name of a dogma, a single currency.

It remains a massive vanity project, that has caused real hardship and misery to millions of Europeans.
Indeed. Sadly I think matters are going to get a lot worse for the EU because the EU have very effectively demonstrated that their solution was a Con. That fact will reverberate through the markets and the whole future of the EU may well be called into question. I also deeply regret the consequences to the Greek people theselves, who have become enmeshed in a currency that their country coud never afford to be within and coud never afford to remain within. The original frauds by Greece and the EU shoud never have happened.

The other problems the EU have will firstly reflect the reality of the poor economic performances of the other failing states within the EU, who may well be directly affected by the Domino effect, which in turn may well put further pressure onto already highly reassured economies. Then there is the absolute lack of growth within the EU itself and then there us the nonsense that France has become seemingly determined to plough ther own economic furrow straight into the ground.

This could well be seen as the start of the unwinding of the EU hype and I do think fundamental revisions of approach will be forthcoming. Germany is still the powerhouse Europe but even Germany cannot afford to pay for all these economic disasters. Reality time is coming to Europe.



Borghetto

3,274 posts

182 months

Wednesday 6th May 2015
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Reported in the FT online today, Greece Overturns Civil Service Reforms. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3b674d8-f3d8-11e4-99de-...

The result will be 15000 civil servants will be rehired. In addition they will be resurecting the state broadcaster and that'll be 1500 rehires. How the bufoons in the Troika can continue to pretend the Greeks are trying to come up with their own austerity measures, beggars belief.

Edited to add: The cherry on the cake. Civil servants will NOT be evaluated, nor will promotions be based on merit - what could possibly go wrong.

Edited by Borghetto on Wednesday 6th May 20:30

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Wednesday 6th May 2015
quotequote all
Borghetto said:
Reported in the FT online today, Greece Overturns Civil Service Reforms. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3b674d8-f3d8-11e4-99de-...

The result will be 15000 civil servants will be rehired. In addition they will be resurecting the state broadcaster and that'll be 1500 rehires. How the bufoons in the Troika can continue to pretend the Greeks are trying to come up with their own austerity measures, beggars belief.

Edited to add: The cherry on the cake. Civil servants will NOT be evaluated, nor will promotions be based on merit - what could possibly go wrong.

Edited by Borghetto on Wednesday 6th May 20:30
And these Greek people know that it is specifically EU other nation taxpayers who themselves might be struggling who are having to make cuts themselves yet Greek people won't they way other nations to suffer ongoing to help them live beyond their means.

Madness

Gargamel

14,957 posts

260 months

Thursday 7th May 2015
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Backdoor bank funding for Stavros, by the EU has gone up again.

Emergency Liquidity Assistance now up by a further 2bn Euros to 79bn - I guess they needed to put some cash in the banks in order to receive the tax money on people withdrawing it.

  • *hoof***

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Thursday 7th May 2015
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Gargamel said:
Backdoor bank funding for Stavros, by the EU has gone up again.

Emergency Liquidity Assistance now up by a further 2bn Euros to 79bn - I guess they needed to put some cash in the banks in order to receive the tax money on people withdrawing it.

  • *hoof***
Quite. The continuing deliberate disenginuity of Greece and the EU strikes me as a textbook example of a pair well met. No good will come of it.

The Newsblack out on the Greece reality criss does seem to be showing signs of diminishing. The latest articles posted by the BBC demonstrate farly reasonably effectively that the Greek government are continuing to be duplicitous and disingenuous whilst stalling for more time and more lovely subsidy.

See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32630338

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32625968

Quite how the EU are continuing to convince themselves that the abject collapse and failure of the Greek economy is still avoidable I have no idea because from all the indicators I can see on the Greek failures and the procrastination from the Greek givernment, recovery simply is not feasible. To suggest recovery with this much visible derision being heaped upon the EU by the Greeks sees to me to be plainly foolish.

The Greeks will not make the necessary changes to even begin an improvement in the Greek insolvency. For that reason suggesting recovery indicates to me that the EU are chasing rainbows in LaLa Land.



LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Monday 11th May 2015
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An interesting article about UK debt.

What were those Greek figures again ....?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/comment/article-3...



Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

246 months

Monday 11th May 2015
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Andrew[MG] said:
Where have Andy Zarse and DJRC gone?
Nowhere really... sorry just bloody busy at work, hopefully the pressure is dying down now.

Art0ir

9,401 posts

169 months

Monday 11th May 2015
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LongQ said:
An interesting article about UK debt.

What were those Greek figures again ....?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/comment/article-3...
UK debt is definitely a problem, but we have the luxury of;

  • Being the 5th largest economy on earth
  • Having our own currency
  • Perceived as a "safe" bet - 10 year yields 1.9% this morning
  • Being able to reduce the deficit slowly without seeing the same massive contractions within the economy seen across Europe, for the reasons above.

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Monday 11th May 2015
quotequote all
Art0ir said:
LongQ said:
An interesting article about UK debt.

What were those Greek figures again ....?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/comment/article-3...
UK debt is definitely a problem, but we have the luxury of;

  • Being the 5th largest economy on earth
  • Having our own currency
  • Perceived as a "safe" bet - 10 year yields 1.9% this morning
  • Being able to reduce the deficit slowly without seeing the same massive contractions within the economy seen across Europe, for the reasons above.
But, as the article observes, the repercussions of a Grexit would take everyone into uncharted territory.

A continuing slowdown in China might take us into territory that we have yet to discover at all.

Might such events prove catastrophic to the UK in some way?

Or could they be used to devalue the debt over a time scale that would mean something to anyone alive today (and currently paying taxes on income) without serious compromise to their financial expectations?

Art0ir

9,401 posts

169 months

Monday 11th May 2015
quotequote all
A meteor could crash into Canary Wharf tomorrow and that would upset things. But there's no way to predict it, nor is there any way to stop it.

You're right though, you should definitely be prepared for it. I can only hope Cameron can do as he says and meet his fiscal targets during this term.

You can also go too far the other way for dogmatic reasons; there's people queueing up to pay the Germans to take their money, but they refuse to do so and spend it on a crumbling infrastructure because of ideology.

Steffan

10,362 posts

227 months

Tuesday 12th May 2015
quotequote all
LongQ said:
Art0ir said:
LongQ said:
An interesting article about UK debt.

What were those Greek figures again ....?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/comment/article-3...
UK debt is definitely a problem, but we have the luxury of;

  • Being the 5th largest economy on earth
  • Having our own currency
  • Perceived as a "safe" bet - 10 year yields 1.9% this morning
  • Being able to reduce the deficit slowly without seeing the same massive contractions within the economy seen across Europe, for the reasons above.
But, as the article observes, the repercussions of a Grexit would take everyone into uncharted territory.

A continuing slowdown in China might take us into territory that we have yet to discover at all.

Might such events prove catastrophic to the UK in some way?

Or could they be used to devalue the debt over a time scale that would mean something to anyone alive today (and currently paying taxes on income) without serious compromise to their financial expectations?
I do think that the serious concern widely held about the reality of the conseqeces of the Greek tragedy causing very widespread effects across the entire financial framework of the EU are rightly regarded as potentially very, very serious Indeed. Throughout the markets and financial centres. Entering into completely unknown territory can be disastrous when the consequences of failure become as serious as this matter has been allowed to become. Mismanagement by the EU is now undeniably apparent and there are no "Solutions" to the reality of this mess.

For that reason I think the EU are trying to find a means to spin thus still further on without Greece exiting the EU. The real problem now is that another fudge will not suffice. The EU cannot easily walk away from this self created problem because their judgement has been shown by repeated events over the last five years, to be visibly myopic and wholly misplaced.

There are an abundance of headlines about currently and a lot of sudden awareness that the policy of pretending that all is well and requiring a news blackout on the Greek question, which as been apparent for some weeks, is no longer sustainable. Thus todays latest headlines make interesting reading:

See:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/may/...


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32699355


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11596...

The crunch is coming I think. Certainly the reality of the Greek economy being utterly incapable of sustaining Greece within the Euro has become abundantly clear and simply udeniable. There has never been anything other than spin and hot air behind the promised Greek economic recovery and for that reason continuing in the same vein has become impossible. The Greek economy has not, cannot and will not recover for many years. If in fact the Greek economy was ever capable of being sustained within the Euro. Which I have always thought very, very doubtful.

I do wonder whether the EU will try to find a way for this economic nonsense to continue. The undertones concerning compesation for the German atrocities in WWII in Greece might just possibly be a way? Could there be others? Otherwise I would suggest the EU are looking at a very difficulty credibility gap which may well cause serious doubts about the reality of the strength and the future of the EU in its current form.





Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 12th May 10:17

paulrockliffe

15,639 posts

226 months

Tuesday 12th May 2015
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The FT says Greece made a 750m payment to the IMF today. 650m of that came from........... The IMF.

gruffalo

7,509 posts

225 months

Tuesday 12th May 2015
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Yep, paid 650M from the Greek IMF reserve.

A bit like paying off your overdraft using your credit card,it bought them a couple of weeks and tried to show RoW they are serious about paying their bills to help secure further loans, that is all.

Welshbeef

49,633 posts

197 months

Tuesday 12th May 2015
quotequote all
I'm sure I heard on R4 this morning that doctors and nurses had not received payment for any overtime from 1/1/2015 to date, medical suppliers to the Greek NHS have not been paid - unsure for how long. Plus a few other things.

What will the Greek people do if there is a GrExit? From a loans mortgage perspective? If it's a new currency they will be crucified and then that debt will go bad for Euro banks - unless of course most Greek debt is held by Greek Banks so would remain a Greek problem.

What about UK people who have bought villas etc in Greece will they be taking a bath on property value?

DJRC

23,563 posts

235 months

Tuesday 12th May 2015
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Andy Zarse said:
Andrew[MG] said:
Where have Andy Zarse and DJRC gone?
Nowhere really... sorry just bloody busy at work, hopefully the pressure is dying down now.
Well Garg was largely right...upto the point where England threw the bloody series away with a single innings of muppetness at which point I stopped bothering to defend the cricket team. I also got bored with all this crap, it is the same each week and the merry go round carries on.

Work is mental.

I buggered off to France for a week to half work and half support mum with dad on his first trip out of the country after the stroke.

And my pay cut is now between 20-25% from 2yrs ago when I started to get paid in Euros. It's at the point where even my hedging isn't covering that and what is largely a nominal theoretical discussion for many actually impacts drastically on my life. It's really starting to piss me off now. I get thoroughly fking annoyed when I make provisions in my life for the incompetence of everyone else and then they manage to be even more incompetent than that!


Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

246 months

Wednesday 13th May 2015
quotequote all
DJRC said:
Andy Zarse said:
Andrew[MG] said:
Where have Andy Zarse and DJRC gone?
Nowhere really... sorry just bloody busy at work, hopefully the pressure is dying down now.
Well Garg was largely right...upto the point where England threw the bloody series away with a single innings of muppetness at which point I stopped bothering to defend the cricket team. I also got bored with all this crap, it is the same each week and the merry go round carries on.

Work is mental.

I buggered off to France for a week to half work and half support mum with dad on his first trip out of the country after the stroke.

And my pay cut is now between 20-25% from 2yrs ago when I started to get paid in Euros. It's at the point where even my hedging isn't covering that and what is largely a nominal theoretical discussion for many actually impacts drastically on my life. It's really starting to piss me off now. I get thoroughly fking annoyed when I make provisions in my life for the incompetence of everyone else and then they manage to be even more incompetent than that!
So busy I couldn't even get to Antigua for the first test...

And don't talk about bloody Euro weakness, we just negotiated a 5% uplift in our charge out rate and have seen it all wiped out by currency movement. Bloody ECB, look at Euroarea GDP growth going positive, who in their right minds thinks QE was necessary?

Still, it'll make Le Mans a bit cheaper this year beer