Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[wc98]

Andy Zarse said:

There might have been a point to all this integration thirty years ago when it was dreamed up, but such a behemoth is increasingly looking like an outmoded dinosaur.

I'd simply say two things; history is littered with terrible conflict when countries are forced together against the will of the people. Secondly, the single currency is swiftly being rendered obsolete by technology. As we quickly move to a cashless society I would ask you to explain what on earth is the point of it any more? Have we not reached the point where the massive disadvantages outweigh the perceived benefits (which never really materialised as planned anyway).

when i say natural evolution , i mean over a very long timescale . i can foresee a future where there may be only a few languages spoken world wide ,all religions consigned to history and very few ,if any prejudices based on fear of the unknown/unseen or unspoken.
the only barriers to something along these lines occurring are politicians and the power hungry who would rather maintain multiple personal fiefdoms for the benefit of kith and kin. the eu is currently a fine example of this.

all imo of course,i have no doubt at all about the inherent capacity of the human race as either a collective or on an individual basis, to continue to fk things up on a grand scale . on current form i would have to agree with you.

[AstonZagato]

LongQ said:

So one would expect that a business person in NI bringing cash to some other part of the the UK in order to buy something by way of trade would have no problems whatsoever.

However it seems that within the rules of banking (as it currently exists) that may be considered to be a "grey area" and possibly subject to "money laundering" regulations.

Ignoring, for a moment, the veracity of such a situation, why on earth would it have any potential to exist in the first place?

When is a "single currency" NOT a single currency?

Perhaps when it's a fiscal Union rather than a Political union?

I'm sorry but now I'm confused. I thought you were trying to say we are in a currency union with Scotland (which we aren't). Now you seem to be saying that we are not in a single currency with Northern Ireland because they use notes which are not legal tender in the rest of the UK (which again is incorrect).

A NI businessman with cash might find his life difficult if he chooses to use cash (so not really a "businessman" then). However, if he electronically transfers cash, or writes a cheque, or uses a debit card, or puts it on a credit card, it will be Sterling that he pays in. The same Sterling that sits in his bank account in NI. Indeed, he can go into any bank in NI (and, I guess in the UK) and change his NI notes into the more familiar UK notes at a guaranteed 1 for 1 rate and spend them to his heart's content.

Paper money has nothing to do with fiscal or monetary union in the UK. You spend Sterling across the UK. You earn Sterling across the UK. The paper money in your wallet means nothing in that context. The regional notes are a historical anachronism that persists because the local population like it. In the current atmosphere of growing nationalism, the politicians will never fiddle with the status quo but the odd notes could be done away with at the stroke of a pen.

[Digga]

fblm said:

Mr Whippy said:

.
How long it takes, depends on how long the unelected pigs want to keep their neo-socialist gravy train jobs going for.

Dave

One of the reasons IMO the EU and Euro are going nowhere any time soon.

Totally. Not sure if it's ever been mentioned here before, but the book "The Untouchables" is an interesting and amusing (it happily names names) take on just a small part (Eire) of the cronyism and revolving door culture of European politics and big business.

It's not a great read - am skimming through a copy that Digga snr read - but is informative, nonetheless. they are examples of the parasitic "anti-fragile" talked about by N Taleb.

http://www.thebookpeople.co.uk/webapp/wcs/stores/s...

[Andy Zarse]

AstonZagato said:

Paper money has nothing to do with fiscal or monetary union in the UK....

Or the EU...

One of the greatest benefits of the Euro, we were told, was getting rid of the need for lots of different notes and coins. As we move into a cashless society such benefits are amortised.

Clearly the crusty old out of touch Gaullist apparatchiks who designed the Euro couldn't have foreseen the revolution in mobile computing which would render the Euro redundant within fifteen years of its launch. Integrated banking systems and proper regulations on cost will see to the rest.

So far from being modern, currency union is an out moded concept from the 1970s and now looks as silly as kipper ties and Dacron shirts.

[Mr Whippy]

grantone said:

Mr Whippy said:

But they need money, but are unwilling and unable to finance the debt interest on what they've borrowed, at very low rates, never mind borrowing more to increase both cost of credit and total debt.

Something has to give.

Either they continue with austerity measures and the public vote out even more tersely, or the other EU countries lose wealth in order to keep them in.


There is no other way. Can kicking costs money... so who will pay?


Greeks can't, but other wealthier countries can. But will the public in those countries want to?


This is the end game for the EU/Euro... but as said, it could be long and drawn out and fairly painful, with even more dire and desperate attempts at grand unifications and other such bonkers ideas, before a final collapse.


How long it takes, depends on how long the unelected pigs want to keep their neo-socialist gravy train jobs going for.

Dave

Is grand unification such a bonkers idea? Isn't it the whole point of the EU & particularly the Eurozone? First the standards, then borders and currency, then fiscal policy, etc....

We all know that Greece will never pay back the debt in real terms to Eurozone members, so we've already had major fiscal transfers.

I know Netherlands, Finland, etc... might not want it, but aren't they too deep in it to back out now? If you consider the complexity of just the UK leaving the EU imagine how difficult it would be for the Netherlands to leave the Eurozone!

Instead of the endgame of the Eurozone ending, it might be the endgame of the Eurozone becoming a proper federal union?

(I think I might be completely wrong on this, hence all the question marks!)

Like I said a few pages back, do you want to be paying for a larger EU government, AND our own UK government?

How many 'leaders' do we really need to make sure the dustbin collections occur, or that our passports get sorted in time for our holidays?


The big question is, does a federal EU offer us something more than not having an EU?

The simple answer is no. Everything the EU gets us, we could get via simple agreements. Countries traded across the entire Eurasian continent thousands of years ago, taking months to travel across it. We don't need agreements or unions to make it happen.



There is also the question of wanting to be part of what is ultimately a socialist union, rather than a free-market capitalist democracy (not what we are, but that is my ideal)

Personally the idea of a neo-communist EU, which is already showing frightening levels of all the bad parts of socialism before it's even got going, scares me a great deal.

I'd prefer the UK to leave, go back to the basics of growth economy based on true free markets and economics, with social oversight by a lightweight government.



As for leaving being hard. Is it? Germany was in two halves and since became one part. The USSR split into many smaller countries. Things can and do change. All that is required is for people to want it... 'the people'... not bd child neo-commie crony capitalist self-appointed EU cronies. There has to be a simpler name for them



As for the end game being total union. I agree it might be one of the EU's death throes... I can easily see later this year, or 2016 resulting in some 'exceptional' situation in Ukraine, or natural disaster, or financial crash... and suddenly the UK has to join the EU and euro, matter of national security, blah blah, has to be done.
Anything to keep the titanic from sinking, even though it's ultimately inevitable... they'd rather cause wars and financial crises to last a lifetime while going under, than let power and union slip away quietly.

Governments should never get THAT big. There is nothing a big government can do better than smaller ones except build bigger war machines, or bigger more self-servicing financial machines/corporations.



But like flbm noted, it's probably not going anywhere soon. The trough feeders are too happy to let it go away. So us and our children, and possibly their children, will be taken down this st path for a lifetime just so a few self-appointed cretins can have their EU gravy train jobs a while longer.



I really have lost all faith in politics. They all lie. They are all in it for themselves first, their donors second, and the electorate last. Democracy has failed through corruption.

The best thing I can see happening is a comet smashing into the planet or a huge solar flare wiping out all electronics. Get us back to a time where real work generates real reward, and governments can't grown to abnormal and unsustainable sizes through debt.

[Einion Yrth]

Mr Whippy said:

The best thing I can see happening is a comet smashing into the planet or a huge solar flare wiping out all electronics. Get us back to a time where real work generates real reward, and governments can't grown to abnormal and unsustainable sizes through debt.

I feel the immediate aftermath might be a tad unpleasant. I would also suggest you study feudal systems, life before the industrial revolution wasn't exactly a bed of roses for most.

[Mr Whippy]

Einion Yrth said:

Mr Whippy said:

The best thing I can see happening is a comet smashing into the planet or a huge solar flare wiping out all electronics. Get us back to a time where real work generates real reward, and governments can't grown to abnormal and unsustainable sizes through debt.

I feel the immediate aftermath might be a tad unpleasant. I would also suggest you study feudal systems, life before the industrial revolution wasn't exactly a bed of roses for most.

The long-term is a tad unpleasant.

USA sabre ratting with the two other largest nuclear powers in the world.

Global population going up and resources getting more expensive.

Global debt in the 'developed' world at all time highs, with future outlook for growth at all time lows.

Corporate ignorance to ecological matters at increasing lows.

EU becoming a neo-communists wet dream. Yay, communism was a real bed of roses for the soviets in the early 20th century!

We don't have to 'go back' to pre-industrial, we just need to start back from near therewith today's knowledge.




We've clearly gone awry, took a wrong turn somewhere, and no government seems willing to steer the ship around. Driven mostly by cronyism I'd say. Turning the ship will be costly in the short term. Not what super wealthy or share holders want... despite the future outlook of not changing being very bleak.

It's that whole delayed gratification thing. The future for our kids would be better, but most won't sign up for that, stupidly.

But I believe nature will do it's thing even if we can't.

[LongQ]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/comment/article-3...


An interesting read that may have a familiar ring to it.

[Axionknight]

In the words of Aerosmith:

It's the same old story, the same old song and dance my friend!

[Mrr T]

Mr Whippy said:

The long-term is a tad unpleasant.

USA sabre ratting with the two other largest nuclear powers in the world.

Global population going up and resources getting more expensive.

Global debt in the 'developed' world at all time highs, with future outlook for growth at all time lows.

Corporate ignorance to ecological matters at increasing lows.

EU becoming a neo-communists wet dream. Yay, communism was a real bed of roses for the soviets in the early 20th century!

We don't have to 'go back' to pre-industrial, we just need to start back from near therewith today's knowledge.




We've clearly gone awry, took a wrong turn somewhere, and no government seems willing to steer the ship around. Driven mostly by cronyism I'd say. Turning the ship will be costly in the short term. Not what super wealthy or share holders want... despite the future outlook of not changing being very bleak.

It's that whole delayed gratification thing. The future for our kids would be better, but most won't sign up for that, stupidly.

But I believe nature will do it's thing even if we can't.

Or you could say the future is looking rosy.

World poverty falling.

Wealth rising.

Air and water is getting cleaner.

More trees are growing.

World food production is growing faster than population.

Lots more efficient and cheap fossil fuels being discovered.

[Axionknight]

Scratch that - tis' far too positive!

[Mr Whippy]

Mrr T said:

Mr Whippy said:

The long-term is a tad unpleasant.

USA sabre ratting with the two other largest nuclear powers in the world.

Global population going up and resources getting more expensive.

Global debt in the 'developed' world at all time highs, with future outlook for growth at all time lows.

Corporate ignorance to ecological matters at increasing lows.

EU becoming a neo-communists wet dream. Yay, communism was a real bed of roses for the soviets in the early 20th century!

We don't have to 'go back' to pre-industrial, we just need to start back from near therewith today's knowledge.




We've clearly gone awry, took a wrong turn somewhere, and no government seems willing to steer the ship around. Driven mostly by cronyism I'd say. Turning the ship will be costly in the short term. Not what super wealthy or share holders want... despite the future outlook of not changing being very bleak.

It's that whole delayed gratification thing. The future for our kids would be better, but most won't sign up for that, stupidly.

But I believe nature will do it's thing even if we can't.

Or you could say the future is looking rosy.

World poverty falling.

Wealth rising.

Air and water is getting cleaner.

More trees are growing.

World food production is growing faster than population.

Lots more efficient and cheap fossil fuels being discovered.

Poverty is falling in absolute terms for now because we're borrowing money we don't have to pay for it.

Wealth rising? Really? The UK debt has doubled in the last 5 years. The USA debt is rising like a rocket too. Only faith is keeping things together.

Air and water cleaner? For a majority living in Chinese cities, or Indian cities, I'd argue that proportionally, more people are living in dirtier air than cleaner air.

Trees growing. Is that a net global tree gain? Have any figures? I thought the rain forests were still disappearing at a football pitch per minute or so?

World food production is growing due to modern techniques that are potentially harming the environment and the quality of our foods too. At some point the law of unintended consequences will impact our biosphere and we'll learn the hard way what tampering too fast with our environment will do.



Yes it's negative but it's the reality of our position.

We've had a boom time, expanded, and for a time it's been good. But now I believe we've over extended ourselves. Our hubris over the last 50 years has seen us do some very unsustainable things, or has left a big door wide open for unintended consequences.



Lets see how the world can unwind it's over-extension. It's starting with Greece. It'll end with the USA and China eventually, with billions suffering from our combined stupidity to not moderate ourselves and our greed.
Humanity won't move onwards and upwards until we can control our greedy nature.

[Digga]

In the case of the BRICs, there's been a huge misallocation of the capital proceeds of their free-market activity. Witness the property booms not only, but especially in London and New York. Look at the ghost cities in China.

IMHO none of this is going to deliver the long term growth that these large economies (and the rest of us who want to sell to them) need, it just creates asset bubbles. There's insufficient industrial and technological investment.

[Mr Whippy]

Digga said:

There's insufficient industrial and technological investment.

Skimmers and prospectors have been allowed to gouge the system and get rich to a level that is unsustainable outside a world that perpetually grows at double digit levels.

Needless to say it's going to get very messy when it all unwinds.

If people look at Greece now and think, oh poor Greece, then it's just a matter of time until our debt becomes 'realised', and we see that we have no money... we're net in debt up to the eyeballs!



You only need to combine French type capital controls on cash withdrawals, to protect you from terrorism.

Throw in some Cyprus style capital controls, to protect your wealth, even though it's taken in the process.

Throw on some extra levels of Austrian style removal of government funded deposit protection on your bank account, banks will now insure your deposits

Maybe layer in some proposed USA style controls on pension funds, so they can 'protect' you from bad fund providers, and look after it for you themselves.


They're coming for every penny you have to perpetuate this mess.

The irony is it's the worst of socialism and capitalist democracy all rolled into one. Both the worst bits that enrich the few at the cost of the many.

To not see Greece as the petri dish for how it'll go in other countries is at your own peril!

Dave

[Art0ir]

AstonZagato said:

I'm sorry but now I'm confused. I thought you were trying to say we are in a currency union with Scotland (which we aren't). Now you seem to be saying that we are not in a single currency with Northern Ireland because they use notes which are not legal tender in the rest of the UK (which again is incorrect).

A NI businessman with cash might find his life difficult if he chooses to use cash (so not really a "businessman" then). However, if he electronically transfers cash, or writes a cheque, or uses a debit card, or puts it on a credit card, it will be Sterling that he pays in. The same Sterling that sits in his bank account in NI. Indeed, he can go into any bank in NI (and, I guess in the UK) and change his NI notes into the more familiar UK notes at a guaranteed 1 for 1 rate and spend them to his heart's content.

Paper money has nothing to do with fiscal or monetary union in the UK. You spend Sterling across the UK. You earn Sterling across the UK. The paper money in your wallet means nothing in that context. The regional notes are a historical anachronism that persists because the local population like it. In the current atmosphere of growing nationalism, the politicians will never fiddle with the status quo but the odd notes could be done away with at the stroke of a pen.

Not a "Businessman", but I successfully spent plenty of NI sterling cash around the London area in the past few weeks

[anonymous-user]

Mr Whippy said:

The long-term is a tad unpleasant.

Challenge!

Mr Whippy said:

USA sabre ratting with the two other largest nuclear powers in the world.

Quite the opposite. WRT China they've been bending over backwards to avoid escalating China's island creation in and militarisation of the South China Sea. Even the recent change to the PLA strategy from defence to defence and attack has gone almost unmentioned. You could probably make a good argument that if anything the US response has not been remotely harsh enough! WRT Russia there has been no physical threat, despite blatent Russian provocation of NATO allies. Economic sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine is hardly an over reaction. With Iraq and Afganistan more or less wound down its fair to say the US is rattling it's sabre less than at any time since before WW2

Mr Whippy said:

Global population going up and resources getting more expensive.

World population growth is a little over 1% and has been falling steadily for 50 years.
In real terms (inflation adjusted) oil is the same price today it was in the 70's, electricity is less than it was in the 60's or any time since. Wheat, corn, sugar, tungsten, chromium, steel, all a fraction of their price 30 or 40 years ago.

Mr Whippy said:

Global debt in the 'developed' world at all time highs, with future outlook for growth at all time lows.

Global wealth in the developed world at all time highs. Outlook? No idea your guess is as good as mine but I'll wager everything I have that you lose if you bet against global growth in the long term.

Mr Whippy said:

Corporate ignorance to ecological matters at increasing lows.

You have got to be kidding!

Mr Whippy said:

EU becoming a neo-communists wet dream. Yay, communism was a real bed of roses for the soviets in the early 20th century!

I got nothing. Very sadly for us all you seem to be right

[Art0ir]

fblm said:

Mr Whippy said:

The long-term is a tad unpleasant.

Challenge!

Mr Whippy said:

USA sabre ratting with the two other largest nuclear powers in the world.

Quite the opposite. WRT China they've been bending over backwards to avoid escalating China's island creation in and militarisation of the South China Sea. Even the recent change to the PLA strategy from defence to defence and attack has gone almost unmentioned. You could probably make a good argument that if anything the US response has not been remotely harsh enough! WRT Russia there has been no physical threat, despite blatent Russian provocation of NATO allies. Economic sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine is hardly an over reaction. With Iraq and Afganistan more or less wound down its fair to say the US is rattling it's sabre less than at any time since before WW2

Mr Whippy said:

Global population going up and resources getting more expensive.

World population growth is a little over 1% and has been falling steadily for 50 years.
In real terms (inflation adjusted) oil is the same price today it was in the 70's, electricity is less than it was in the 60's or any time since. Wheat, corn, sugar, tungsten, chromium, steel, all a fraction of their price 30 or 40 years ago.

Mr Whippy said:

Global debt in the 'developed' world at all time highs, with future outlook for growth at all time lows.

Global wealth in the developed world at all time highs. Outlook? No idea your guess is as good as mine but I'll wager everything I have that you lose if you bet against global growth in the long term.

Mr Whippy said:

Corporate ignorance to ecological matters at increasing lows.

You have got to be kidding!

Mr Whippy said:

EU becoming a neo-communists wet dream. Yay, communism was a real bed of roses for the soviets in the early 20th century!

I got nothing. Very sadly for us all you seem to be right

Don't you come in here with your cautious optimism! We're dooooomed!

[Mr Whippy]

fblm said:

Mr Whippy said:

The long-term is a tad unpleasant.

Challenge!

Mr Whippy said:

USA sabre ratting with the two other largest nuclear powers in the world.

Quite the opposite. WRT China they've been bending over backwards to avoid escalating China's island creation in and militarisation of the South China Sea. Even the recent change to the PLA strategy from defence to defence and attack has gone almost unmentioned. You could probably make a good argument that if anything the US response has not been remotely harsh enough! WRT Russia there has been no physical threat, despite blatent Russian provocation of NATO allies. Economic sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine is hardly an over reaction. With Iraq and Afganistan more or less wound down its fair to say the US is rattling it's sabre less than at any time since before WW2

Mr Whippy said:

Global population going up and resources getting more expensive.

World population growth is a little over 1% and has been falling steadily for 50 years.
In real terms (inflation adjusted) oil is the same price today it was in the 70's, electricity is less than it was in the 60's or any time since. Wheat, corn, sugar, tungsten, chromium, steel, all a fraction of their price 30 or 40 years ago.

Mr Whippy said:

Global debt in the 'developed' world at all time highs, with future outlook for growth at all time lows.

Global wealth in the developed world at all time highs. Outlook? No idea your guess is as good as mine but I'll wager everything I have that you lose if you bet against global growth in the long term.

Mr Whippy said:

Corporate ignorance to ecological matters at increasing lows.

You have got to be kidding!

Mr Whippy said:

EU becoming a neo-communists wet dream. Yay, communism was a real bed of roses for the soviets in the early 20th century!

I got nothing. Very sadly for us all you seem to be right

You can screw the idea that I'm going to waste my afternoon nesting quotes two posts deep

Challenge yes, but fighting against our man made problems more and more.

I have the pragmatic outlook if I leave our 'elected' leaders and their crony capitalist mates at the back door, and look forward with technological and scientific goggles on.
I could see us colonising the solar system within decades if we wanted to. The future is infinitely bright if we let it be, and leave unfettered greed behind.

We're being held back by our own idiocy in promoting or allowing sociopathic liars to be/become our leaders.
Unfortunately we've got a bunch of greedy cretins at the wheel of humanity.



The USA is sabre rattling. Two events not on their borders or involving anyone within NATO, and they're getting involved. If that isn't sabre rattling I'm not sure what is.
Being a self appointed world police doesn't mean they are not rattling sabres.


World population growth has slowed, but it's still growing. More importantly the demand by those on the planet upon the worlds resources is increasing. We use more water, more energy, etc etc.

Yes resources haven't gone up dramatically in price, but that is due to increasingly advanced methods of extraction that are more opposed to the biosphere. Shale oil for example uses lots of fresh water for extraction and impacts local ecology significantly. Much more than an oil well in a desert. Then we have deep sea oil leaks costing a great deal and doing more environmental damage because they're harder to control when they go wrong.

Wheat, corn, foodstuffs, yes, we make loads of them. But is the onward march of high yield low labour crop production sustainable? We use methods increasingly against the natural biosphere to offer these benefits, and that obviously impacts the biosphere more too. Ie, monoculture isn't good for other life. Palm oil forests for example destroy habitats for many animals.



Global growth in the long term yeah sure. In the long term we're all dead too.

After every economic crash, in the long term, we're doing better eventually.

But when you're stood on the precipice of ecological, economic and social highs, which we can all agree have occurred over the last 100-200 years, there has to be a down-turn.

That is where we're going now. It's not doom and gloom. It's just the way of things.

Unfortunately, my point is, it's being made worse by the greed and megalomania of the types running the EU gravy train and their corporate buddies who are along for the ride.


Greece are the sign on the wall that all is not well.

We can all clearly see Spain and Italy are not doing so well either.

This isn't just going to disappear, it's unfolding day by day... and getting worse. Look back 5 years and look how we saw the near future. It's turning out worse at every stage than we expected it to be in 5 years time.
If that isn't a sign things are going pants I don't know what is.


Unfortunately de-leveraging is a bh that we're gonna have to face at some stage. Chances are in the short term it's gonna cost you your own wealth if the EU neo-commies get their way!

Dave

Edited by Mr Whippy on Wednesday 27th May 16:28

[Steffan]

Mr Whippy said:

fblm said:

Mr Whippy said:

The long-term is a tad unpleasant.

Challenge!

Mr Whippy said:

USA sabre ratting with the two other largest nuclear powers in the world.

Quite the opposite. WRT China they've been bending over backwards to avoid escalating China's island creation in and militarisation of the South China Sea. Even the recent change to the PLA strategy from defence to defence and attack has gone almost unmentioned. You could probably make a good argument that if anything the US response has not been remotely harsh enough! WRT Russia there has been no physical threat, despite blatent Russian provocation of NATO allies. Economic sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine is hardly an over reaction. With Iraq and Afganistan more or less wound down its fair to say the US is rattling it's sabre less than at any time since before WW2

Mr Whippy said:

Global population going up and resources getting more expensive.

World population growth is a little over 1% and has been falling steadily for 50 years.
In real terms (inflation adjusted) oil is the same price today it was in the 70's, electricity is less than it was in the 60's or any time since. Wheat, corn, sugar, tungsten, chromium, steel, all a fraction of their price 30 or 40 years ago.

Mr Whippy said:

Global debt in the 'developed' world at all time highs, with future outlook for growth at all time lows.

Global wealth in the developed world at all time highs. Outlook? No idea your guess is as good as mine but I'll wager everything I have that you lose if you bet against global growth in the long term.

Mr Whippy said:

Corporate ignorance to ecological matters at increasing lows.

You have got to be kidding!

Mr Whippy said:

EU becoming a neo-communists wet dream. Yay, communism was a real bed of roses for the soviets in the early 20th century!

I got nothing. Very sadly for us all you seem to be right

You can screw the idea that I'm going to waste my afternoon nesting quotes two posts deep

Challenge yes, but fighting against our man made problems more and more.

I have the pragmatic outlook if I leave our 'elected' leaders and their crony capitalist mates at the back door, and look forward with technological and scientific goggles on.
I could see us colonising the solar system within decades if we wanted to. The future is infinitely bright if we let it be, and leave unfettered greed behind.

We're being held back by our own idiocy in promoting or allowing sociopathic liars to be/become our leaders.
Unfortunately we've got a bunch of greedy cretins at the wheel of humanity.



The USA is sabre rattling. Two events not on their borders or involving anyone within NATO, and they're getting involved. If that isn't sabre rattling I'm not sure what is.
Being a self appointed world police doesn't mean they are not rattling sabres.


World population growth has slowed, but it's still growing. More importantly the demand by those on the planet upon the worlds resources is increasing. We use more water, more energy, etc etc.

Yes resources haven't gone up dramatically in price, but that is due to increasingly advanced methods of extraction that are more opposed to the biosphere. Shale oil for example uses lots of fresh water for extraction and impacts local ecology significantly. Much more than an oil well in a desert. Then we have deep sea oil leaks costing a great deal and doing more environmental damage because they're harder to control when they go wrong.

Wheat, corn, foodstuffs, yes, we make loads of them. But is the onward march of high yield low labour crop production sustainable? We use methods increasingly against the natural biosphere to offer these benefits, and that obviously impacts the biosphere more too. Ie, monoculture isn't good for other life. Palm oil forests for example destroy habitats for many animals.



Global growth in the long term yeah sure. In the long term we're all dead too.

After every economic crash, in the long term, we're doing better eventually.

But when you're stood on the precipice of ecological, economic and social highs, which we can all agree have occurred over the last 100-200 years, there has to be a down-turn.

That is where we're going now. It's not doom and gloom. It's just the way of things.

Unfortunately, my point is, it's being made worse by the greed and megalomania of the types running the EU gravy train and their corporate buddies who are along for the ride.


Greece are the sign on the wall that all is not well.

We can all clearly see Spain and Italy are not doing so well either.

This isn't just going to disappear, it's unfolding day by day... and getting worse. Look back 5 years and look how we saw the near future. It's turning out worse at every stage than we expected it to be in 5 years time.
If that isn't a sign things are going pants I don't know what is.


Unfortunately de-leveraging is a bh that we're gonna have to face at some stage. Chances are in the short term it's gonna cost you your own wealth if the EU neo-commies get their way!

Dave

Edited by Mr Whippy on Wednesday 27th May 16:28

Both informative, interesting and challenging posts. I am out of the UK again currently on a very weak wifi signal which drops frequently currently. Hence this short post!

The reality of the difficulties that are currently being either admitted or corrected in the case of Greece and indeed the other failing states is the most serious concern IMO. The EU are wasting Billions of Euros pretending they can escape the reality of economics. The EU cannot and will not. For that reason Greece will fail and from that point the EU will be desperately trying to field all sorts of immediate economic concerns. Only one end to this dream. 

[Mermaid]

Greece news and chatter continues to permeate markets as Greece gets closer to the first payment to the IMF due June 5. Reports of continued losses at Greek banks and deposit outflows continues to weigh on sentiment as liquidity remains at a premium. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, has weighed in with her comments telling a German newspaper that a Greek exit from the euro zone was possible but that this would probably not herald the end of the euro currency. She said such a step would "not be a walk in the park" but would "probably not" mean the end of the euro. US Treasury Secretary Lew has also offered his two cents worth, saying in a speech in London to the London School of Economics that “it’s a mistake to think that a failure is of no consequence outside of Greece …… we don’t know the exact scope”.