Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[anonymous-user]

Enricogto said:

Both EFSF and ESM. As per the LTRO, all countries' bond were part of the purchase program, so technically you could say all countries have been bailed out.

I don't follow. The fact that, say, Bunds were eligible collateral for the LTRO is irrelevant, its eligible collateral for practically everything, but who would actually use it as such when the whole point of the LTRO was to relax those collateral rules to allow EZ banks to borrow against all the stty PIGS debt they have. 'Technically' I guess you could say the LTRO provided liquidity to German/nonPIGS banks holding crappy PIGS/ABS debt and so indirectly could be seen as a bailout of those banks countries. That's a far cry from directly bailing out a countries sovereign bonds by virtue of their inclusion in a list of eligible collateral.

[Walford]

[Blib]

I don't know Madoff. But, I do know someone pretty well who's currently serving 13 years in the nick for a £80 million fraud. On the face of it, a really lovely chap. He could charm the birds from the trees.

Carry on.

[Steffan]

Blib said:

I don't know Madoff. But, I do know someone pretty well who's currently serving 13 years in the nick for a £80 million fraud. On the face of it, a really lovely chap. He could charm the birds from the trees.

Carry on.

F

Many years of quite varied experience acting for both personal and company Insolvencies, taught me that a charming, amusing, witty and presentable personality was common amongst many of the characters I met. To be successful with their shenanigans they had to be likeable and believable. There were also a good many cases where I had some sympathy with the insolvents, particularly where house and home had gone in an effort to save a sinking business. Not all insolvents make a living out if it. But there are unquestionably those that do and some of the characters really are exceptionally able. Pity. Is they will not turn their abilities onto genuine business. I think they like the easy money.

Ponzi schemes are of course outright deliberate fraud. Some, like Madhoff, do live exceptionally well for many decades before the bubble bursts. I have known a number disappear with the proceeds and many are clever enough never to reappear spending their time away in sunny lands. The tragedy is that so many naive individuals so easlily believe the daft claims and promises, proffered by so many of these individuals, as a means to get rich. The old adage " If it looks to good to be true, it very probably is too good to be true" has to be the best approach IMO. If wishes came true, we would all be Kings, being another! Caveat Emptor still being the best advice, after many, many years. Never more true than in financial investment!

[Steffan]

Just spotted this on the Greek saga. It seems Greece is dictating terms to the IMF. What a surprise

See:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33009034

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

...Ponzi schemes are of course outright deliberate fraud. Some, like Madhoff, do live exceptionally well for many decades before the bubble bursts. I have known a number disappear with the proceeds and many are clever enough never to reappear spending their time away in sunny lands. The tragedy is that so many naive individuals so easlily believe the daft claims and promises, proffered by so many of these individuals, as a means to get rich. The old adage " If it looks to good to be true, it very probably is too good to be true" has to be the best approach IMO. If wishes came true, we would all be Kings, being another! Caveat Emptor still being the best advice, after many, many years. Never more true than in financial investment!

Greeks knew what they were going into, the rest were naive/hopeful.

[paulrockliffe]

Seems Greece are to delay their June payments by rolling them all into one payment at the end of the month. Some daft IMF rule that lets you ask to do that (I don't think Greece asked!) if making multiple payments creates administrative difficulties. I think the rule dates back to the 70s, when moving money was more difficult.

Ridiculous.

[Blib]

Steffan said:

Blib said:

I don't know Madoff. But, I do know someone pretty well who's currently serving 13 years in the nick for a £80 million fraud. On the face of it, a really lovely chap. He could charm the birds from the trees.

Carry on.

F

Many years of quite varied experience acting for both personal and company Insolvencies, taught me that a charming, amusing, witty and presentable personality was common amongst many of the characters I met. To be successful with their shenanigans they had to be likeable and believable. There were also a good many cases where I had some sympathy with the insolvents, particularly where house and home had gone in an effort to save a sinking business. Not all insolvents make a living out if it. But there are unquestionably those that do and some of the characters really are exceptionally able. Pity. Is they will not turn their abilities onto genuine business. I think they like the easy money.

Ponzi schemes are of course outright deliberate fraud. Some, like Madhoff, do live exceptionally well for many decades before the bubble bursts. I have known a number disappear with the proceeds and many are clever enough never to reappear spending their time away in sunny lands. The tragedy is that so many naive individuals so easlily believe the daft claims and promises, proffered by so many of these individuals, as a means to get rich. The old adage " If it looks to good to be true, it very probably is too good to be true" has to be the best approach IMO. If wishes came true, we would all be Kings, being another! Caveat Emptor still being the best advice, after many, many years. Never more true than in financial investment!

Or, as my dad said to me many years ago. "Son, there are no Father Christmasses."

[LongQ]

Blib said:

Steffan said:

Blib said:

I don't know Madoff. But, I do know someone pretty well who's currently serving 13 years in the nick for a £80 million fraud. On the face of it, a really lovely chap. He could charm the birds from the trees.

Carry on.

F

Many years of quite varied experience acting for both personal and company Insolvencies, taught me that a charming, amusing, witty and presentable personality was common amongst many of the characters I met. To be successful with their shenanigans they had to be likeable and believable. There were also a good many cases where I had some sympathy with the insolvents, particularly where house and home had gone in an effort to save a sinking business. Not all insolvents make a living out if it. But there are unquestionably those that do and some of the characters really are exceptionally able. Pity. Is they will not turn their abilities onto genuine business. I think they like the easy money.

Ponzi schemes are of course outright deliberate fraud. Some, like Madhoff, do live exceptionally well for many decades before the bubble bursts. I have known a number disappear with the proceeds and many are clever enough never to reappear spending their time away in sunny lands. The tragedy is that so many naive individuals so easlily believe the daft claims and promises, proffered by so many of these individuals, as a means to get rich. The old adage " If it looks to good to be true, it very probably is too good to be true" has to be the best approach IMO. If wishes came true, we would all be Kings, being another! Caveat Emptor still being the best advice, after many, many years. Never more true than in financial investment!

Or, as my dad said to me many years ago. "Son, there are no Father Christmasses."

I heard that a "move of last resort" for sons who reached advanced age without really understanding that Santa might not be around for ever.

So, how old were you when Pater delivered this memorable blow to your psyche?

[eldar]

LongQ said:

I heard that a "move of last resort" for sons who reached advanced age without really understanding that Santa might not be around for ever.

So, how old were you when Pater delivered this memorable blow to your psyche?

Blib was 82, his pater 106.

[gruffalo]

Blib said:

Or, as my dad said to me many years ago. "Son, there are no Father Christmasses."

WHAT??

You're joking right!

[Blib]

LongQ said:

I heard that a "move of last resort" for sons who reached advanced age without really understanding that Santa might not be around for ever.

So, how old were you when Pater delivered this memorable blow to your psyche?

Iirc, I was about 82 and dad was 106.

[LongQ]

I'm not so sure that we should be discussing just the Euro.

The way the legal entities and politicians are raiding the Bank's as piggy banks makes me wonder how long the system can survive. The Bank management teams seem to be wondering the same thing since they seem to be cowed in defence of themselves rather than pointing out the potential danger of rampantly trashing the current system whilst having no clear workable alternative to replace it.

This is ridiculous at most levels, not least in the "High Street".

Yesterday evening my wife spent at least 40 mins on the phone, could have been longer as I don't know how long she had been talking before I came to hear the conversation, to a telephone service line. She wanted to increased the credit limit on her credit card from the 3 figure amount it has been for years (never offered an automatic increase) to a 4 figure amount that would double the limit. She has banked with them for decades. They could see a complete and solid history. She was asked why she wanted the increase and what she might use it for. Etc., etc.

40 minutes just to add a few hundred quid to a very low credit limit. This is one of the many banks shedding staff and trying to cut costs.

At the end of that time the person on the phone (possibly the second or third she had been put through to) almost insisted that the limit should be increased to 4 times what she wanted it to be. She declined. Doesn't need that much and a lower amount is more secure should the card be cloned, etc.

40 minutes to achieve almost nothing of significance for an organisation that is seeking "efficiencies".

If all banks with retail operations are being managed within those constraints our version of a civilisation is in deep trouble as a social construct.

The best of it is - she's staff and has been all of her working life. What hope can mere customers have?

[davepoth]

paulrockliffe said:

Seems Greece are to delay their June payments by rolling them all into one payment at the end of the month. Some daft IMF rule that lets you ask to do that (I don't think Greece asked!) if making multiple payments creates administrative difficulties. I think the rule dates back to the 70s, when moving money was more difficult.

Ridiculous.

They don't have the money and they're trying to string it out as long as possible. The upshot of leaving it so late is that the Greek banks will be empty by the time capital controls are introduced. Greece is going to be really bankrupt when it finally goes.

[Walford]

Am not convinced, when you default on a car or house loan you lose the asset, but this will not be the case here

[gruffalo]

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/04/gr...

The Guardian saying that the delaying of the payment is being done as an act of defiance, surely this will only annoy those that Greece needs on side if they are true to their word and wish to stay in the EZ?

[Blib]

Greece’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, told Sky News: “Objectively speaking, we have until the 30 June because this is when the extension of the agreement with our creditors expires.”

But he conceded that Greece would be unable to continue making repayments at some point.

[Art0ir]

What I don't understand is how the IMF's creditors are going along with this?

There's no way in hell they are going to get back all of this bailout money.

[Quarterly]

Gargamel said:

Quarterly said:

This might be a good moment for me to ask a question.

Would it be possible to save the Euro by letting Greece default on its loans, but stay in the Euro? They could continue to use the euro, but obviously no one would lend them anything. Could that happen?

It could happen in theory yes.

a few problems though

What would make Italy or Portugal want to carry on paying back there bailouts (or Ireland for that matter)

Secondly, with a Socialist government in power, and no economic reform on the horizon, then Greece is still unable to pay its way even without the debt. So it would need further funding simply to meet its future state obligations.

Third - The IMF won't I think even consider writing off loans, Europe is one thing, but owing around 90bn to the IMF is a whole other thing. The IMF is the lender of last resort, and they will want there money out. Since they lend to far riskier places than Greece.

I agree though they can remain in the Euro, but what they really need is an almost complete recapitalisation. But they aslo need very significant economic reform. (Sack some Cleaners !)

Thanks for the reply on Monday. So it looks like they've missed the deadline but not been thrown out of the Euro, so in theory all they have to do is keep saying they will pay it and continue using the Euro. It doesn't solve any of their problems other than they don't have to make any more payments and the EU can keep them in the Euro. Win, win.

[Borghetto]

It seems that within the IMF rules, Greece can bundle all payments due to the IMF into one payment at the end of the month. So on this pantomime will go until the next "final deadline".