Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
DJRC said:
Sort of Dave, but - and again Ive said this throughout - we need to stop saying "the EU this, the EU that". Barroso and Draghi always have been, always will be and always are nobodies. The *only* and I emphasise again the word *only*, people who matter and have mattered throughout this lark with regards to the money have been the German banking industry as represented by Wolfgang, the German domestic slush fund as represented by Mutti and their partners in crime the SNB, otherwise better known as the Swiss National Bank. Yes, yes I know some of you are still wedded to this idea that the Swiss took a beating over the peg etc but again - I need to emphasise this - they really really didn't. The Swiss have been the German Banks and the ECBs bank of last resort the entire time. They have underlined the Euro, time and time again. When the peg was tested they swamped the market instantly with funds, i.e. the peg was tested for a matter of seconds before the SNB deployed the financial nukes. They didn't f
k about at Easter 2012, they hit the switched marked "billions" instantly and the hedge funds legged it. Out the back door the SNB were trading their purchased Euros so barely even keeping them luke warm let alone holding them. In the meantime they (and this is something you don't realise unless you lived there at the time) bought critical time for their own domestic exporting industry. Switzerland had its biggest financial crisis in 70 yrs in June/July 2011 and it was utterly unreported by anybody, but you could argue it underpinned the entire European economy. Swiss industry couldn't export beyond Dec 2011, the forward exchange deals covered the next 6 months and forecasts had it as BELOW 1 - 1 against the Pound. It started 2011 around 1.5 I think. Nobody could deal with that, so the SNB brought the peg in to save its own exporting industry because without that Swiss industry was dead and and as Europes Bank of last resort and the strongest currency in the world, Europe was arguably a lot closer to being v v fked.
So where does this all leave us? German Banks and French Banks are happy. The Swiss are happy. Merkel saw off Mr Bruni and got the Europe's worst premier instead (I don't think she has finished laughing yet) and kept CMD on side to the extent that she now sees a political path to make the next stage of European development/rule an Anglo-German direction, not a French aligned one.
Im a good political analyst. If Id actually stayed inside the game instead of realising v quickly back at Uni that everyone in the game was a complete, then I may have become a very good political analyst. There is no power nor knowledge in the world however that could enable me, even on my very best day I could possibly ever have, to get even remotely close to Mutti's level of political ability on her worst day, when she was blind drunk, crapping on the toilet from food poisoning and after just being rodgered up the arse by a Kauto Star & Frankel tag team.
let me know if you ever write a book, i will be first in the queue . tag teamed by kauto star and frankel ,indeed k about at Easter 2012, they hit the switched marked "billions" instantly and the hedge funds legged it. Out the back door the SNB were trading their purchased Euros so barely even keeping them luke warm let alone holding them. In the meantime they (and this is something you don't realise unless you lived there at the time) bought critical time for their own domestic exporting industry. Switzerland had its biggest financial crisis in 70 yrs in June/July 2011 and it was utterly unreported by anybody, but you could argue it underpinned the entire European economy. Swiss industry couldn't export beyond Dec 2011, the forward exchange deals covered the next 6 months and forecasts had it as BELOW 1 - 1 against the Pound. It started 2011 around 1.5 I think. Nobody could deal with that, so the SNB brought the peg in to save its own exporting industry because without that Swiss industry was dead and and as Europes Bank of last resort and the strongest currency in the world, Europe was arguably a lot closer to being v v fked.So where does this all leave us? German Banks and French Banks are happy. The Swiss are happy. Merkel saw off Mr Bruni and got the Europe's worst premier instead (I don't think she has finished laughing yet) and kept CMD on side to the extent that she now sees a political path to make the next stage of European development/rule an Anglo-German direction, not a French aligned one.
Im a good political analyst. If Id actually stayed inside the game instead of realising v quickly back at Uni that everyone in the game was a complete
, then I may have become a very good political analyst. There is no power nor knowledge in the world however that could enable me, even on my very best day I could possibly ever have, to get even remotely close to Mutti's level of political ability on her worst day, when she was blind drunk, crapping on the toilet from food poisoning and after just being rodgered up the arse by a Kauto Star & Frankel tag team.
DJRC said:
Sort of Dave, but - and again Ive said this throughout - we need to stop saying "the EU this, the EU that". Barroso and Draghi always have been, always will be and always are nobodies. The *only* and I emphasise again the word *only*, people who matter and have mattered throughout this lark with regards to the money have been the German banking industry as represented by Wolfgang, the German domestic slush fund as represented by Mutti and their partners in crime the SNB, otherwise better known as the Swiss National Bank. Yes, yes I know some of you are still wedded to this idea that the Swiss took a beating over the peg etc but again - I need to emphasise this - they really really didn't. The Swiss have been the German Banks and the ECBs bank of last resort the entire time. They have underlined the Euro, time and time again. When the peg was tested they swamped the market instantly with funds, i.e. the peg was tested for a matter of seconds before the SNB deployed the financial nukes. They didn't fk about at Easter 2012, they hit the switched marked "billions" instantly and the hedge funds legged it. Out the back door the SNB were trading their purchased Euros so barely even keeping them luke warm let alone holding them. In the meantime they (and this is something you don't realise unless you lived there at the time) bought critical time for their own domestic exporting industry. Switzerland had its biggest financial crisis in 70 yrs in June/July 2011 and it was utterly unreported by anybody, but you could argue it underpinned the entire European economy. Swiss industry couldn't export beyond Dec 2011, the forward exchange deals covered the next 6 months and forecasts had it as BELOW 1 - 1 against the Pound. It started 2011 around 1.5 I think. Nobody could deal with that, so the SNB brought the peg in to save its own exporting industry because without that Swiss industry was dead and and as Europes Bank of last resort and the strongest currency in the world, Europe was arguably a lot closer to being v v fked.
So where does this all leave us? German Banks and French Banks are happy. The Swiss are happy. Merkel saw off Mr Bruni and got the Europe's worst premier instead (I don't think she has finished laughing yet) and kept CMD on side to the extent that she now sees a political path to make the next stage of European development/rule an Anglo-German direction, not a French aligned one.
Im a good political analyst. If Id actually stayed inside the game instead of realising v quickly back at Uni that everyone in the game was a complete, then I may have become a very good political analyst. There is no power nor knowledge in the world however that could enable me, even on my very best day I could possibly ever have, to get even remotely close to Mutti's level of political ability on her worst day, when she was blind drunk, crapping on the toilet from food poisoning and after just being rodgered up the arse by a Kauto Star & Frankel tag team.
How do you not write for the Economist? Lol . What do you do?k about at Easter 2012, they hit the switched marked "billions" instantly and the hedge funds legged it. Out the back door the SNB were trading their purchased Euros so barely even keeping them luke warm let alone holding them. In the meantime they (and this is something you don't realise unless you lived there at the time) bought critical time for their own domestic exporting industry. Switzerland had its biggest financial crisis in 70 yrs in June/July 2011 and it was utterly unreported by anybody, but you could argue it underpinned the entire European economy. Swiss industry couldn't export beyond Dec 2011, the forward exchange deals covered the next 6 months and forecasts had it as BELOW 1 - 1 against the Pound. It started 2011 around 1.5 I think. Nobody could deal with that, so the SNB brought the peg in to save its own exporting industry because without that Swiss industry was dead and and as Europes Bank of last resort and the strongest currency in the world, Europe was arguably a lot closer to being v v fked.So where does this all leave us? German Banks and French Banks are happy. The Swiss are happy. Merkel saw off Mr Bruni and got the Europe's worst premier instead (I don't think she has finished laughing yet) and kept CMD on side to the extent that she now sees a political path to make the next stage of European development/rule an Anglo-German direction, not a French aligned one.
Im a good political analyst. If Id actually stayed inside the game instead of realising v quickly back at Uni that everyone in the game was a complete
, then I may have become a very good political analyst. There is no power nor knowledge in the world however that could enable me, even on my very best day I could possibly ever have, to get even remotely close to Mutti's level of political ability on her worst day, when she was blind drunk, crapping on the toilet from food poisoning and after just being rodgered up the arse by a Kauto Star & Frankel tag team.Some interesting posts here recently. Thank you.
Just to step back a little though I still see two independent (albeit somewhat related) questions here. On (say) a 12 month view:
1. Will Greece default on its debt obligations? [Yes/No]
2. Will Greece remain a member of the European Union? [Yes/No]
I think that we all know the answer to the first question is Yes.
I don't think we know the answer to second question. I believe that both "Yes" and "No" are plausible.
Perhaps too much coverage (not necessarily comment here) seems to be based on the implicit assumption that Default = Grexit?
Just to step back a little though I still see two independent (albeit somewhat related) questions here. On (say) a 12 month view:
1. Will Greece default on its debt obligations? [Yes/No]
2. Will Greece remain a member of the European Union? [Yes/No]
I think that we all know the answer to the first question is Yes.
I don't think we know the answer to second question. I believe that both "Yes" and "No" are plausible.
Perhaps too much coverage (not necessarily comment here) seems to be based on the implicit assumption that Default = Grexit?
1. The Economist can't afford me.
2. If I ever wrote a book it would!d be entit!ed " Kauto Star:The greatest arse rodgering horse that ever lived".
Most things in life I am extremely cynical over, but dear God watching Kauto eyeball Denman and Long Run and laying down the law remains possibly the most life affirming thing I've ever seen. But then I've also seen two Octogenarians by the name of Moss and Brabham put an entire field to the sword in the pouring rain.
2. If I ever wrote a book it would!d be entit!ed " Kauto Star:The greatest arse rodgering horse that ever lived".
Most things in life I am extremely cynical over, but dear God watching Kauto eyeball Denman and Long Run and laying down the law remains possibly the most life affirming thing I've ever seen. But then I've also seen two Octogenarians by the name of Moss and Brabham put an entire field to the sword in the pouring rain.
"It is regularly pointed out that Greece is only 2 per cent of eurozone GDP, but maybe we should consider that the plughole is also only 2 per cent of the bath. Greece matters not just politically and financially, but morally too and this is why the behaviour of Brussels – and by extension our own finance ministry – in this sorry tale has been appalling.
Ghandi once observed that the weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong"
David McWilliams
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/06/08/greeces-d...
Ghandi once observed that the weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong"
David McWilliams
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2015/06/08/greeces-d...
iantr said:
1. Will Greece default on its debt obligations? [Yes/No]
2. Will Greece remain a member of the European Union? [Yes/No]
I think the only thing less likely than Greece being able to make it's current debt repayments is for the 'great and good' of the Euro zone (and the IMF) to admit they were wrong.2. Will Greece remain a member of the European Union? [Yes/No]
So we'll see some pantomime theatre and public bun fights while in the background they redefine Greece's obligations into 30 years of indenture and the tax payers of Europe take the hit.
DJRC said:
Yes, yes I know some of you are still wedded to this idea that the Swiss took a beating over the peg etc but again - I need to emphasise this - they really really didn't.
Our money is worth too much and we are all too rich, this is terrible! The SNB should hire Ed Balls that should fix CHFAll very inreresting and good to hear that many others on here are generally aware that time s running out for Grrece in this matter. Indeed, Frau Merkel has pronounced upon the time running out for Greece to come up with adeqate proposals to enable the EU to consider whether the support program for Greece can be continued.
See: http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-33044766
As Mermaid, DJRC, maffski , fbfm and so many others on here have suggested in their various interesting contributions, the reality of the hopless insolvency of Greece has beeb recognised and the the reality of the completely ineffective support framework becoming unsustainabe for Greece has become all too visible for the support program to be continued by the EU unless the EU can establish new proposals for the recovery of Greece in the very short term. The situation cannot be sustained without such a rationalised continuance. It seems to me that the EU have achieved their primary goal, namely enabling the French banks (and others) to foist their very insecure lending to Greece onto other, much less critical (for the EU) sources, at the cost of hundreds Billions of Euros provided in good faith by the unwitting EU taxpayers? It also appears that the recognition that this nonsense has been pushed as far as it can be pushed has arrived.
I cannot see the EU wishing to attempt any such "new solution ideas" because this has been a long and painfulll business and has already overexposed the EU to a great deal of acrimoinious doubt ancriticism and considerable rancour. No doubt there will be some vain attempts to rally the position once this does becomes apparent. But it seems to me that Greece has used up all it's chips in this game and that the duplicitous, agressive and attacking attitude that Syriza have displayed in the negotiations has done Greece absolutely no favours. From all I can see I do think that the crunch is coming.
See: http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-33044766
As Mermaid, DJRC, maffski , fbfm and so many others on here have suggested in their various interesting contributions, the reality of the hopless insolvency of Greece has beeb recognised and the the reality of the completely ineffective support framework becoming unsustainabe for Greece has become all too visible for the support program to be continued by the EU unless the EU can establish new proposals for the recovery of Greece in the very short term. The situation cannot be sustained without such a rationalised continuance. It seems to me that the EU have achieved their primary goal, namely enabling the French banks (and others) to foist their very insecure lending to Greece onto other, much less critical (for the EU) sources, at the cost of hundreds Billions of Euros provided in good faith by the unwitting EU taxpayers? It also appears that the recognition that this nonsense has been pushed as far as it can be pushed has arrived.
I cannot see the EU wishing to attempt any such "new solution ideas" because this has been a long and painfulll business and has already overexposed the EU to a great deal of acrimoinious doubt ancriticism and considerable rancour. No doubt there will be some vain attempts to rally the position once this does becomes apparent. But it seems to me that Greece has used up all it's chips in this game and that the duplicitous, agressive and attacking attitude that Syriza have displayed in the negotiations has done Greece absolutely no favours. From all I can see I do think that the crunch is coming.
Steffan said:
I cannot see the EU wishing to attempt any such "new solution ideas" because this has been a long and painfulll business and has already overexposed the EU to a great deal of acrimoinious doubt ancriticism and considerable rancour. No doubt there will be some vain attempts to rally the position once this does becomes apparent. But it seems to me that Greece has used up all it's chips in this game and that the duplicitous, agressive and attacking attitude that Syriza have displayed in the negotiations has done Greece absolutely no favours. From all I can see I do think that the crunch is coming.
Agreed. I really can't see an easy way out. There seems to be no will to bail-in the rest of the EU and yet an abject fear of cutting Greece loose.There's resentment all round - the most polarised being from within Greece and Germany respectively - and no small amount of propaganda being circulated on both sides.
Digga snr is off out to visit my sister and the Greek bit of our extended family again, and I very much doubt whether there will be any major change on the ground - things have been s
t for the man/woman on the street for ages now - save for a few more disgruntled public sector workers and a further decline in public services.Blib said:
Funkycoldribena said:
Steffan said in 2011-
As more observers are saying the Greek collapse is inevitable I think August.
Steffan I agree with all you say but I'm never going to Ladbrokes with you....
Ah. But, In that quote, Steffan did not specify which August. As more observers are saying the Greek collapse is inevitable I think August.
Steffan I agree with all you say but I'm never going to Ladbrokes with you....
fblm said:
Blib said:
Funkycoldribena said:
Steffan said in 2011-
As more observers are saying the Greek collapse is inevitable I think August.
Steffan I agree with all you say but I'm never going to Ladbrokes with you....
Ah. But, In that quote, Steffan did not specify which August. As more observers are saying the Greek collapse is inevitable I think August.
Steffan I agree with all you say but I'm never going to Ladbrokes with you....
fblm said:
RYH64E said:
The eventual outcome will be more about politics than economics, so anything's possible and the timeframe is whatever they want it to be.
I've been saying the same thing on this thread for years!Report from the BBC. Greece has apparently submitted their latest set of proposals? Whether this actually amounts to a bag of frogs remains to be seen. Certainly, given the attitude and approach of Syriza to the EU it seems most unlikely that there will be an agreement to me. But the EU have the controls and the printing presses so, time will tell. If there is, then the same process will be enacted again and again, with Greece staggering from criss to crisis. There are, so far as I can see, no signs either of the slightest possibility of achieving recovery for Greece or of any intentions of actually making the necessary changes to effect any recovery in Greece. Cloudcuckoo land economics IMO.
Steffan said:
fblm said:
RYH64E said:
The eventual outcome will be more about politics than economics, so anything's possible and the timeframe is whatever they want it to be.
I've been saying the same thing on this thread for years!Report from the BBC. Greece has apparently submitted their latest set of proposals? Whether this actually amounts to a bag of frogs remains to be seen. Certainly, given the attitude and approach of Syriza to the EU it seems most unlikely that there will be an agreement to me. But the EU have the controls and the printing presses so, time will tell. If there is, then the same process will be enacted again and again, with Greece staggering from criss to crisis. There are, so far as I can see, no signs either of the slightest possibility of achieving recovery for Greece or of any intentions of actually making the necessary changes to effect any recovery in Greece. Cloudcuckoo land economics IMO.
RYH64E said:
It's not about the economic recovery of Greece, it never has been. If the EU decide that they can cut Greece loose without irreparably damaging the euro or any major eu states then they'll do so, if not they'll come up with another fudge. They can keep the whole sorry process going on for as long as they choose, or end it tomorrow.
Could we now be seeing the end game coming about?
I thought the new proposals from Greece were to be discussed between Junkers and Tsipras on Wednesday but Junkers has apparently now said he has no plans to meet the Greek PM.
Could Junkers actually be thinking of cutting Greece free from the Euro by not even discussing any compromise offers from Greece and leaving Greece with a take it or leave ultimatum?
European banks now safe from too much exposure to Greek debt so could this have been the plan all along?
I thought the new proposals from Greece were to be discussed between Junkers and Tsipras on Wednesday but Junkers has apparently now said he has no plans to meet the Greek PM.
Could Junkers actually be thinking of cutting Greece free from the Euro by not even discussing any compromise offers from Greece and leaving Greece with a take it or leave ultimatum?
European banks now safe from too much exposure to Greek debt so could this have been the plan all along?
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