Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Digga said:
If or/and when the end comes, it will be swift and brutal.
This could simply be yet another bit of confusing chicanery, can kicking and chaos, or it could equally signal a significant change. Likely, we'll only know retrospectively.
One Monday morning........................ the Drachma notes have already been printed I expect.This could simply be yet another bit of confusing chicanery, can kicking and chaos, or it could equally signal a significant change. Likely, we'll only know retrospectively.
Digga said:
Gargamel said:
I am guessing it doesn't feel that way to the Greek People.
TBF, most of them abandoned any hope of rationality or assistance from any level of government - national or EU - long ago.Mermaid said:
Germany considering accepting Greece staggered deal on aid, markets rise.
Indeed, Mermaid, you are absolutely spot on, as ever, and the EU and the twin lynch pins within the EU, Germany and France are maling every effort to be seen to be making every effort to secure a further deal on Greece and to therefore to enable Greece to avoid the drop.See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33089665
Will they be successful? That's another question altogether.
But as you say the markets like to see the possibility of continuance?
On balance I cannot see how, with more than five years of abject failure by Greece to reign in the overspending and to effect productive taxation regime changes, within Greece, I cannot see much sign of any fundamental improvements within the Greece economy? In consequence it seems to me that the die is cast.
But the EU have control of the printing presses and this could be pushed forward if the EU agree to throw even more Billions of Euros away on this nonsense. In reality there is not the slightest sign that Greece can recover economically indeed all the signs are that Greece cannot recover economically! But the decision is down to the EU.
On balance I think this will turn out to be be pure window dressing. Greece has steadily slid towards inevitable insolvency for many, many years? I rather think, we must wait and see.
Idle thought 1) print money = inflation (or danger of).
Idle thought 2) Debt - either repay or inflate away.
Idle thought 3) Print money to inflate away Greek (+ other) debts.
How much money and what level of inflation would be sustainable to work? Or, unsustainable (or out of control inflation) but let's do it anyway as nothing else is working? Too long a time frame to sell to investors and electors?
Idle thought 2) Debt - either repay or inflate away.
Idle thought 3) Print money to inflate away Greek (+ other) debts.
How much money and what level of inflation would be sustainable to work? Or, unsustainable (or out of control inflation) but let's do it anyway as nothing else is working? Too long a time frame to sell to investors and electors?
Mermaid said:
Digga said:
If or/and when the end comes, it will be swift and brutal.
This could simply be yet another bit of confusing chicanery, can kicking and chaos, or it could equally signal a significant change. Likely, we'll only know retrospectively.
One Monday morning........................ the Drachma notes have already been printed I expect.This could simply be yet another bit of confusing chicanery, can kicking and chaos, or it could equally signal a significant change. Likely, we'll only know retrospectively.
AstonZagato said:
I wonder how much you could achieve in the creation of the notes without it leaking out. De La Rue, I'm sure, would be very discrete but the number of people involved in design, printing, shipping and distributing the notes would be huge. Banking system changes - particularly the software changes - would be immense too, I guess.
On the other hand if you did it electronically the amount of control one would gain over the flow, taxation and spending systems would be immense. This is why our Government and others are so keen to splash billions on huge software projects in the hope that one day they find one or two that work.
Each country in the EU and EZ will have areas that are run down and need financial support.
If the EU were indeed an integrated entity Greece, irrespective of failings in its local authority politicians and civil servants, would be one of the areas attracting "investment inflow". Maybe get Boris Johnson in as an advisor. He knows a bit about ancient history as I recall and has experience of running an area with a similar population complete with many immigrants.
So, your remove the cash culture "at a stroke", make all transactions visible to the "government", offer the job of guiding the area into the future to a person with some experience and then see what happens.
There may never be enough "balance of trade" for the place to run a surplus but you might get to an acceptable level of support funding that could be carried forward for as long as anyone alive is likely to care.
LongQ said:
On the other hand if you did it electronically the amount of control one would gain over the flow, taxation and spending systems would be immense.
I'll stop you there. Large parts of Greece are completely "off grid" when it comes to the webnet. It will be at best decades (at worst never) before they have coverage of a decent percentile of the population.Digga said:
LongQ said:
On the other hand if you did it electronically the amount of control one would gain over the flow, taxation and spending systems would be immense.
I'll stop you there. Large parts of Greece are completely "off grid" when it comes to the webnet. It will be at best decades (at worst never) before they have coverage of a decent percentile of the population.In the case of Greece the system is, reportedly, in such a state that the temptation to impose controls with trackability at almost any price to the populace must be high no matter what the cost. If it was the price of an extended bailout would they be able to resist?
The EU/EZ could treat it as a live trial for plans to make it Europewide in the next decade or two. By then many of the larger "money" churn projects - road pricing via automated monitoring for example - will be in place and full electronic payment system usage will almost certainly be very close to total coverage. The "Anti Money Laundering" banking controls will ensure it happens.
So, like it or not, Greece might as well be the test case now - it's a location that would seem to represent the greatest potential benefits from such an "advance" as far as any authority might seek them.
Make it a 10 year trial for which they are paid at a "suitable" rate and end up with a clean slate.
Faces saved all round and with a plausible excuse for the undertaking.
Perfect concept for those in the corridors of power.
telford_mike said:
Mermaid said:
Germany considering accepting Greece staggered deal on aid, markets rise.
IMF team go home, citing major differences. Markets fall.turbobloke said:
telford_mike said:
Mermaid said:
Germany considering accepting Greece staggered deal on aid, markets rise.
IMF team go home, citing major differences. Markets fall.,
Gargamel said:
Ed Balls
NO NO NO!!!! Please. We are very well rid of E.Balls, as I know you will agree Gargamel. Let us all pray (to whichever Deity you prefer) this is permanent. Its bad enough having to watch the awful Mrs E Balls (Yvette Cooper) making a very poor attempt at getting on the ladder within Labour. Never ever again. PLEASE! On the subject of Greece continuing pretending to be solvent the IMF seem to have made up their minds, taken their ball in and gone home. If that is the case then I think Greece really has hit the stops and the game is over. Presumably the EU will spin this as long as they can, but I cannot see how in these circumstances default by Greece can be avoided.
Steffan said:
On the subject of Greece continuing pretending to be solvent the IMF seem to have made up their minds, taken their ball in and gone home. If that is the case then I think Greece really has hit the stops and the game is over. Presumably the EU will spin this as long as they can, but I cannot see how in these circumstances default by Greece can be avoided.
Politically, this does seem to be a fairly decisive point.In the same way as many here think the UK govt should have let northern Rock go to the wall, there is an argument to say the Troika might also now be compelled to make an example of Greece. Let's be clear about Greece and it's politics; they're broadly communist in leaning and have overseen utterly corrupt, inefficient and unproductive governments. At the end of the day, there is eventually little room for compromise and, seemingly, a total lack of will to make even the most rudimentary of economic reforms - the simplification of doing business in the country being key. Sadly, there are too many little empires and vest interests.
Digga said:
Steffan said:
On the subject of Greece continuing pretending to be solvent the IMF seem to have made up their minds, taken their ball in and gone home. If that is the case then I think Greece really has hit the stops and the game is over. Presumably the EU will spin this as long as they can, but I cannot see how in these circumstances default by Greece can be avoided.
Politically, this does seem to be a fairly decisive point.In the same way as many here think the UK govt should have let northern Rock go to the wall, there is an argument to say the Troika might also now be compelled to make an example of Greece. Let's be clear about Greece and it's politics; they're broadly communist in leaning and have overseen utterly corrupt, inefficient and unproductive governments. At the end of the day, there is eventually little room for compromise and, seemingly, a total lack of will to make even the most rudimentary of economic reforms - the simplification of doing business in the country being key. Sadly, there are too many little empires and vest interests.
Let the Greeks run their country as they see fit, even if that's very badly, shame we can't do the same with Wales and Scotland...
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff