Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Blib]

If Greece is cut free and effectively has its loans written off, won't future governments of other financially stressed Eurozone countries be more likely to follow their example?

Especially as come what may, whatever the Greeks end up using as currency, the sun will still rise, Greeks will go on living and making do. Greece is not going to disappear off the face of the earth. The Greeks will muddle through. That's what humans do.

[Steffan]

RYH64E said:

Digga said:

Steffan said:

On the subject of Greece continuing pretending to be solvent the IMF seem to have made up their minds, taken their ball in and gone home. If that is the case then I think Greece really has hit the stops and the game is over. Presumably the EU will spin this as long as they can, but I cannot see how in these circumstances default by Greece can be avoided.

Politically, this does seem to be a fairly decisive point.

In the same way as many here think the UK govt should have let northern Rock go to the wall, there is an argument to say the Troika might also now be compelled to make an example of Greece. Let's be clear about Greece and it's politics; they're broadly communist in leaning and have overseen utterly corrupt, inefficient and unproductive governments. At the end of the day, there is eventually little room for compromise and, seemingly, a total lack of will to make even the most rudimentary of economic reforms - the simplification of doing business in the country being key. Sadly, there are too many little empires and vest interests.

It could be argued that ejecting Greece from the eurozone would strengthen the euro and make it's end even less nigh, they should never have been accepted in in the first place so keeping them in makes little sense. The money that they borrowed is lost anyway, it's just a shame that those who originally lent the money haven't suffered the consequences, but the EU can afford to take the hit. There's bound to be some short term turmoil but I doubt that would last long, better just to get it over with.

Let the Greeks run their country as they see fit, even if that's very badly, shame we can't do the same with Wales and Scotland...

Blib said:

If Greece is cut free and effectively has its loans written off, won't future governments of other financially stressed Eurozone countries be more likely to follow their example?

Especially as come what may, whatever the Greeks end up using as currency, the sun will still rise, Greeks will go on living and making do. Greece is not going to disappear off the face of the earth. The Greeks will muddle through. That's what humans do.

I can understand the arguments that Digga used to confirm that there may well be an argument that effective action by EU in allwing a default of Greece, may well assist to ensure all the other failing states are aware of the consequences to foolishness. Equally I can appreciate the arguments RYH64E is using to suggest that there may be some possibilty of the EU actually strengthening its position if the EU is seen to take even belated efective action over Greece.

Blib quite rightly says that the sun will still rise daily over Greece and that there will be a life for Greece even if there is default. However I think the reality of the poverty that that would be produced within Greece must not be underestimated. There could well be widespread lawlessness, although I would certainly hope not. Greece will be a vary difficult place to earn a living.

There has been a real change in the tone of the comminucations from the EU in recent days and the ver visible news of the IMF leaving the talks speaks volumes IMO. Perhaps there will be a scrambled further extension. But the grim reality of the absolute hopless and continuing insolvency of Greece is now apparent and I do think default must come.

[RYH64E]

Blib said:

If Greece is cut free and effectively has its loans written off, won't future governments of other financially stressed Eurozone countries be more likely to follow their example?

Especially as come what may, whatever the Greeks end up using as currency, the sun will still rise, Greeks will go on living and making do. Greece is not going to disappear off the face of the earth. The Greeks will muddle through. That's what humans do.

I think the short term consequences for Greece will be pretty dire, not sure anyone else would voluntarily choose to go down the same path. Same really for personal finances, you could go out and spend a lot of money you don't have then declare yourself bankrupt, plenty of people do, but most don't.

[Walford]

Was there ever a plan by the EU to grab the Caribbean, maybe around 2005
I was talking with a guy in Bonaire, they became part of the Kingdom of Holand again so in the EU
he said they were planning to get more islands in, but then the crash stopped it dead

[Digga]

TA14 said:

Have they already lost the shirt off their backs?

A Freudian slip, but yes, they are figuratively down to their vest & pants here.

I don't think default and Grexit will prove to be the sort of 'free lunch' debt jubilee that any other errant states might wish to emulate. As Steffan says, the results will be pretty dire but, on the other hand, there is a limit to the stupidity the troika can tolerably accommodate.

[anonymous-user]

RYH64E said:

It could be argued that ejecting Greece from the eurozone would strengthen the euro and make it's end even less nigh...

I agree but if it were an orderly exit which worked for Greece then it would serve as a blueprint for other nations or at least strengthen their seperatist/nationalist parties. I'm afraid if Greece does jump or get pushed the EU/EZ will have to completely fvck them over (some more). Pour not encourager les autres.

[Digga]

fblm said:

I agree but if it were an orderly exit which worked for Greece then it would serve as a blueprint for other nations or at least strengthen their seperatist/nationalist parties. I'm afraid if Greece does jump or get pushed the EU/EZ will have to completely fvck them over (some more). Pour not encourager les autres.

My thoughts pretty much.

It seems that, without being unkind, the Greeks want to live in splendid isolation and indolence, away from the grind of the Northern European reality, whilst enjoying all of its benefits. If and when the crunch comes, it will be acrimonious and the Greek people will no doubt be encouraged by politicians to ascribe more blame to the Troika than to their own governments or, indeed, themselves. The kids are in charge of the sweet shop.

[RYH64E]

fblm said:

RYH64E said:

It could be argued that ejecting Greece from the eurozone would strengthen the euro and make it's end even less nigh...

I agree but if it were an orderly exit which worked for Greece then it would serve as a blueprint for other nations or at least strengthen their seperatist/nationalist parties. I'm afraid if Greece does jump or get pushed the EU/EZ will have to completely fvck them over (some more). Pour not encourager les autres.

I don't think the eu will have to do anything at all, Greece is quite capable of making an example of themselves without external assistance.

[anonymous-user]

RYH64E said:

I don't think the eu will have to do anything at all, Greece is quite capable of making an example of themselves without external assistance.

Ha. Very true but the EU/EZ can still make life very difficult for them if they leave.

[Steffan]

fblm said:

RYH64E said:

I don't think the eu will have to do anything at all, Greece is quite capable of making an example of themselves without external assistance.

Ha. Very true but the EU/EZ can still make life very difficult for them if they leave.

I do appreciate the comments of RYH64E on the capacity of Greece to make a real mess of their own economy all by themselves and the comments of fbfm in that the EU could make life very difficult indeed for Greece if they chose to do so. They are both quite right in their views. To my mind the game changer here, has been the departure of the IMF contingent from the Greek talks that occurred yesterday. Germany were insistent that the IMF were involved from the start of ths affair, probbably quite correctly. The IMF have apparently decided that enough is enough.

From the start of this matter the IMF have been central in supporting the decisions made by the EU and in adding gravitas to what might otherwise have been seen as an unrealistic attempt to prevent the inevitable. Credence was added by the prescence of the IMF. For that reason the IMF pulling out of the talks must be regarded as deeply serious to the prognss for this bailout continuing.

There do seem to be a significant number of comments in the media, currently, generally suggesting that the die is cast and that Greece simply no longer has the economic strength to remain within the Euro. Merkel is still trying to broker another deal but with the Syriza government committed to reducing the austerity program as it unquestionably has been and the obvious effects on the failing Greek economy, which have been very visible continuing, seem to me to indicate that the reality of default by Greece is beginning to dawn.

The EU may try to extend the deadline or fudge this foward in some other way. But once independent organisations like the IMF walk away, then, I really think that any talk of recovery by Greece is just that alone. I cannot see how this can be continued for any length of time. Buton the other hand, the EU have the printing presses. On balance I think the EU will now begin to concentrate on ensuring damage limitation to the EU. I think life could get very very nasty indeed for the poor Greek people.

[Steffan]

Definitely an increase in the volume and a much more strident tone to the reports of the Greek difficulties in the media on this subject currently

See: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0c45e4ee-10d9-11e5-8413-...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33106990

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102754047

Whilst one Swallow does not a summer make, I cannot see how the EU can continue to keep this nonsense running successfully? Damage limitation coming up? I wonder........

[LongQ]

Unless it's all just co-ordinated theatre as usual.

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

Unless it's all just co-ordinated theatre as usual.

Which much of this could be. The EU coud be trying to bounce Greece into accepting austerity erasures that might actually make recovery a very slim possibility. The IMF coud be trying the same gambit with their widely reported dissatisfaction with the progress. However I doubt that either the EU or the IMF can actually begin the economic recovery process for Greece and the economic indicators are the chances are slim to nothing. Time will tell.

[Beati Dogu]

Greece will never recover while it's part of the Euro. But then they EU doesn't really give a st about Greece, they just want to maintain their superstate dream.

[Gargamel]

LongQ said:

Unless it's all just co-ordinated theatre as usual.

There is still a big number to pay back at the end of this month.

My feeling is that now this is personal, insults have flown, Syriza have not won friends or built relationships, they have taken a strange line in tone I think.

If a last ditch deal is stitched together, it will look a lot like a "bail out III" of around 25bn Euros, IE enough for nothing to change until around January, and it will in all but name be another loan to be used to pay off the loans.

However, I cannot realistic see the EU backing away from the economic change required by the original austerity deal. Which Syriza seemed deadlocked on.

Odd all round really.

[LongQ]

Gargamel said:

LongQ said:

Unless it's all just co-ordinated theatre as usual.

There is still a big number to pay back at the end of this month.

My feeling is that now this is personal, insults have flown, Syriza have not won friends or built relationships, they have taken a strange line in tone I think.

If a last ditch deal is stitched together, it will look a lot like a "bail out III" of around 25bn Euros, IE enough for nothing to change until around January, and it will in all but name be another loan to be used to pay off the loans.

However, I cannot realistic see the EU backing away from the economic change required by the original austerity deal. Which Syriza seemed deadlocked on.

Odd all round really.

Odd if you want a solution.

Not so much if you want a distraction.

It's a near perfect Hollywood script outline with good potential for an extended franchise.

Whilst it runs the current cast and those not yet in the show have a vested interest in keeping things as they are even if they can be presented as remarkably unstable.

The PIIS will want to watch without becoming too associated with any particular position that might be detrimental to their future casting options.

Meanwhile the Juncker/Tusk duo don;t seem to be making as much headway nor as many healinse as the Barosso/Van Rompuy team managed so one might suspect thier PR teams are seeking as many opportunities as they can find for "meaningful" and "influential" interventions. Much easier to do something in that respect in an unstable situation although there is no certainty that the teams would have any more successful outcomes than, say, Ed Minigland's lot had in the UK.

[majordad]

What would the effect of Greece leaving/being dumped from the EU/Euro be on the Euro and Sterling ?

[richie99]

A anyone lending money to Greece and expecting to get anything back is at best, optimistic and at worst a complete idiot. They certainly are not students of history. http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0911/th...

Of course, the EU doesn't care about the Greeks. There's something about a nation which will lie and cheat to borrow everything they can with no intention of ever paying anything back, and to repeatedly do so through history.

[Gargamel]

majordad said:

What would the effect of Greece leaving/being dumped from the EU/Euro be on the Euro and Sterling ?

Depends how it happens.

Initially you would expect the euro to decline and the pound to strengthen. But provided no banks in Eurozone collapse and that it is managed relatively efficiently I would expect the Euro to rise as it would be stronger without Greece in it.

However, QE installments in the Euro zone are probably a more influential factor for actual currency value, the Greek thing is more sentiment.

[Mermaid]

Gargamel said:

Initially you would expect the euro to decline and the pound to strengthen. But provided no banks in Eurozone collapse and that it is managed relatively efficiently I would expect the Euro to rise as it would be stronger without Greece in it.

However, QE installments in the Euro zone are probably a more influential factor for actual currency value, the Greek thing is more sentiment.

I suppose so much is factored in already, and a relief rally likely after the initial reaction.