Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Andy Zarse said:
GuitarTech said:
But, much, much better: The clown known as Varoufakis is threatening to sue the EU if they throw Greece out of the EU.
You couldn't make it up: what has he been smoking?
Okay then, show us where in any of the EU Treaties there is a mechanism for terminating EU membership? You couldn't make it up: what has he been smoking?
What Varoufakis is saying (and I am no particular fan of Syriza) is that the EU must act within the law and the Greeks will apply for an injunction against being thrown out of the EU.
In any event, I wouldn't pay too much attention to the utter horsecrap written in the German press. It's a complete disgrace, no more than a mouthpiece for the likes of Schaubel. History will be very harsh on Germany for their role in perpetuating this crisis.
And the horsecrap written in the German press isn't any better or worse than the other countries in Europe.
Fact is, I don't think the incompetent clowns in Brussels will have any problems at all moving the goal posts far enough to be able to kick Greece out of the EU should it suit them. If the law doesn't suit them, they will just change it till it does
richie99 said:
I don't believe Greece will ever reform, and is completely incapable of doing so. Their recent history is one of finding some poor sap with a poor knowledge of history, to give or lend a whole load of money to fund their profligate lazy lifestyle and then refuse to pay it back. Rinse and repeat except this time the misguided lenders included the EU which take idiocy to whole new level therefor Greece even further in debt this time.
matsoc said:
Once you are in it going out from the Euro is madness, I think YES will win by a huge margin, something like 80% or more.
The trouble is a Yes vote isn't a vote for improving anything, it's a vote for '...would you like this mess to carry on for a few years to the next crisis...'Gargamel said:
The EU have been totally unwilling to restructure the long term debt for Greece, and yet any realistic solution must contain a write down.
It could all have been so different.
A year ago, The Euro could have put out a bland little statement somewhere quiet on a Tuesday night, with a technical sentence like.
As a result of success in containing and managing the financial shocks of 2008, the bailout terms for Greece have been amended to write down 70bn Euros in bonds, and adjust term dates out to 2050 on a further 70bn.
As they are printing close a trillion euros anyway, you wonder what actually is the value in punishing Greece of the Troika terms which let's face it was a necessary firewall to prevent a French banking run.
Sure some of the members might not have liked it, but I think they will find it considerable less funny, if Greece does default and exit, as effectively the EU loses one tail end charlie, but will quickly gain another one, likely to be Portugal.
but then Portugal, and Italy and Spain and Ireland would have seen that and been negotiating their own debt.It could all have been so different.
A year ago, The Euro could have put out a bland little statement somewhere quiet on a Tuesday night, with a technical sentence like.
As a result of success in containing and managing the financial shocks of 2008, the bailout terms for Greece have been amended to write down 70bn Euros in bonds, and adjust term dates out to 2050 on a further 70bn.
As they are printing close a trillion euros anyway, you wonder what actually is the value in punishing Greece of the Troika terms which let's face it was a necessary firewall to prevent a French banking run.
Sure some of the members might not have liked it, but I think they will find it considerable less funny, if Greece does default and exit, as effectively the EU loses one tail end charlie, but will quickly gain another one, likely to be Portugal.
Luke Warm said:
Importer pays in the currency of the exporting nation (or US dollars).
The importer pays in whatever currency is agreed with the exporter, I've got suppliers in China who take payment in euro (part of my drive to pay in euro whenever possible). I can foresee extreme difficulty in converting Drachma into any internationally accepted currency, so unless Greece can run a neutral Balance of Payments account then getting access to currency won't be easy.spikeyhead said:
Gargamel said:
The EU have been totally unwilling to restructure the long term debt for Greece, and yet any realistic solution must contain a write down.
It could all have been so different.
A year ago, The Euro could have put out a bland little statement somewhere quiet on a Tuesday night, with a technical sentence like.
As a result of success in containing and managing the financial shocks of 2008, the bailout terms for Greece have been amended to write down 70bn Euros in bonds, and adjust term dates out to 2050 on a further 70bn.
As they are printing close a trillion euros anyway, you wonder what actually is the value in punishing Greece of the Troika terms which let's face it was a necessary firewall to prevent a French banking run.
Sure some of the members might not have liked it, but I think they will find it considerable less funny, if Greece does default and exit, as effectively the EU loses one tail end charlie, but will quickly gain another one, likely to be Portugal.
but then Portugal, and Italy and Spain and Ireland would have seen that and been negotiating their own debt.It could all have been so different.
A year ago, The Euro could have put out a bland little statement somewhere quiet on a Tuesday night, with a technical sentence like.
As a result of success in containing and managing the financial shocks of 2008, the bailout terms for Greece have been amended to write down 70bn Euros in bonds, and adjust term dates out to 2050 on a further 70bn.
As they are printing close a trillion euros anyway, you wonder what actually is the value in punishing Greece of the Troika terms which let's face it was a necessary firewall to prevent a French banking run.
Sure some of the members might not have liked it, but I think they will find it considerable less funny, if Greece does default and exit, as effectively the EU loses one tail end charlie, but will quickly gain another one, likely to be Portugal.
Mermaid said:
Has all this sullied opinions about Greeks?
No Stavros the Harry Enfield character has always been my opinion of Greeks.Those outside of the cities basically worked May till September and then took the rest of the year off.
Those in industry always massively corrupt, trading with Greek companies set that opinion in me.
I worked on a project for a well known Greek airline some years ago in the early 1990's. The senior technical person in charge of the project told me that everybody above him in the services part of the airline was there because of who they knew and not what they knew (friends/relatives of politicians) and these people hardly ever turned up for work and only appeared once or twice a month. Not knowing any better I asked him how that could be tolerated and he just shrugged and said "it's the Greek way and nobody can do anything about it, you just have to try and get decisions when they are around otherwise you just have to wait". Needless to say the project never went live as crucial decisions were never made.
matsoc said:
Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis among the countries you stated Italy is the only that hasn't effectively any money from FMI but it the one with the highest public debt, over 2200 €billions, Greece has just 300. I don't believe the monetary union could survive the exit of an economy large like Italy.
AIUI, Italy's debt is a bit like Japan's, most of it is held domestically.Edited by Borghetto on Tuesday 30th June 14:28
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/g...
http://www.ekathimerini.com/198471/article/ekathim...
Maybe not representative, but completed since the Referendum announcement, 55 out of 100 Greeks surveyed in this Guardian piece are going to vote to stay in the Eurozone. (Not sure why it won't work as a link)
http://www.ekathimerini.com/198471/article/ekathim...
Ekathimerini said:
In the poll by Alco for the Proto Thema Sunday paper, 57 percent said they believed Greece should make a deal with its EU partners while 29 percent wanted a rupture. A separate poll by Kapa Research for the To Vima newspaper found 47.2 percent of respondents would vote in favor of a new, painful agreement with Greece's creditors, compared to 33 percent who would vote no and 18.4 percent undecided.
Both nationwide polls were conducted from June 24-26. The Alco poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percent while Kapa Research's was 3.09 percent.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2015/jun/30/greece-euro-referendum-100-greeks-give-their-viewBoth nationwide polls were conducted from June 24-26. The Alco poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percent while Kapa Research's was 3.09 percent.
Maybe not representative, but completed since the Referendum announcement, 55 out of 100 Greeks surveyed in this Guardian piece are going to vote to stay in the Eurozone. (Not sure why it won't work as a link)
DJRC said:
The end of the Euro may or may not be nigh but far more importantly however the end of the greatest horse in history has arrived 
Kauto Star has died. Something that frankly I regard as vastly more tragic than the Euro.
I always won more out of Desert Orchid. Kauto Star has died. Something that frankly I regard as vastly more tragic than the Euro.
Aren't you getting paid in sand now?
craig7l said:
Derek Smith said:
So will we see a return of the military in Greece? It is not so long ago that a democratic rightist government was seen as too liberal.
Greece, the home of democracy, has hardly been stable over recent years.
If the left leaning government does force what will be, in effect, the economic collapse of the country, there might well be riots in the streets, just the sort of excuse an ambitious army officer might find useful.
My understanding is that this might well force Greece to leave/be kicked out of the EU.
Destabilising the area would be a gift for Russia. The dormant ill-feeling between Greece and Turkey would probably surface again, leaving opportunities for Putin.
If you could not afford to import oil for electricity, let alone businesses, and the nice man offered you gas and oil at a price you could indeed afford, at least in the short term, then you are going to accept.
As the EU has happily led greece to this point without a real solution over the last 5 years or more, to a point of hopelessness and nationalism:Greece, the home of democracy, has hardly been stable over recent years.
If the left leaning government does force what will be, in effect, the economic collapse of the country, there might well be riots in the streets, just the sort of excuse an ambitious army officer might find useful.
My understanding is that this might well force Greece to leave/be kicked out of the EU.
Destabilising the area would be a gift for Russia. The dormant ill-feeling between Greece and Turkey would probably surface again, leaving opportunities for Putin.
If you could not afford to import oil for electricity, let alone businesses, and the nice man offered you gas and oil at a price you could indeed afford, at least in the short term, then you are going to accept.
will the EU do the right thing and give back the Nobel peace prize..?
God I hate the communist Ponzi european edifice and all that goes with it....
I'm reminded of a Keynesian quote (about Germany, funnily enough):
“I cannot leave this subject as though its just treatment wholly depended either on our own pledges or economic facts. The policy of reducing Germany to servitude for a generation, of degrading the lives of millions of human beings, and of depriving a whole nation of happiness should be abhorrent and detestable, - abhorrent and detestable, even if it were possible, even if it enriched ourselves, even if it did not sow the decay of the whole civilized life of Europe. Some preach it in the name of Justice. In the great events of man's history, in the unwinding of the complex fates of nations Justice is not so simple. And if it were, nations are not authorized, by religion or by natural morals, to visit on the children of their enemies the misdoings of parents of rulers.”
- John Maynard Keynes, ‘The Economic Consequences of the Peace’.
The Second World War was an almost direct consequence of the poverty and indignity heaped on Germany after the Great War. Thankfully the Allies didn't make that mistake after the Second - quite the opposite.
None of this compares directly. The indignity and poverty are of a completely different scale. The importance of Greece to Europe and her neighbours is a fraction of the importance of Germany. The Greeks put themselves into the position in which they find themselves in an entirely different way.
But, a destabilised Greece at risk of a dictatorship and/or falling into the Russian sphere of influence is not in Europe's (or the UK's) interest.
It is remarkable that Europe have put itself in such a difficult position. The failure of the leadership to foresee and forestall this outcome is a very clear demonstration of the fact that the Eurozone (and probably the EU) is not fit for purpose.
DJRC said:
The end of the Euro may or may not be nigh but far more importantly however the end of the greatest horse in history has arrived
Kauto Star has died. Something that frankly I regard as vastly more tragic than the Euro.
Nonsense Kauto Star has died. Something that frankly I regard as vastly more tragic than the Euro.
Surely Bucephalus, Copenhagen or Hercules are far more important horses.
DJRC said:
Garg - important? I said greatest 
How many folks on here know those horses is open to debate
Important to raise the bar once in a while. (Though not sure Hercules really meets the standard) How many folks on here know those horses is open to debate
Sad though that Kauto survived an entire racing career, and then broke a hip going out to a paddock.
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