Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Stig]

grantone said:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/20...

Maybe not representative, but completed since the Referendum announcement, 55 out of 100 Greeks surveyed in this Guardian piece are going to vote to stay in the Eurozone. (Not sure why it won't work as a link)

Which is why after a few days of closed banks, 60 euro withdrawal limits there will be a big swing to the 'YES' vote and normal service will be resumed.

Billions more Euros will be flushed away as a consequence and history's most expensive can, will be booted down the road a bit further.

Just in: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33325886

Tsipras has been painted into a corner:

"Speaking live on state TV on Monday evening, Mr Tsipras appealed to Greeks to reject the creditors' proposals, saying this would give Greece "more powerful weapons" to take to the negotiating table.

Mr Tsipras also hinted strongly that he would resign if the result of the referendum was a "yes" vote.

"If the Greek people want to proceed with austerity plans in perpetuity, which will leave us unable to lift our head... we will respect it, but we will not be the ones to carry it out," he said."

So for the average Greek, which poison do you take? Given that they are in this mess for taking the 'easy' way out, I can't see them voting to leave whilst still suckling at the inexaustible teat of the EU.

Edited by Stig on Tuesday 30th June 15:29

[matsoc]

Borghetto said:

matsoc said:

Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis among the countries you stated Italy is the only that hasn't effectively any money from FMI but it the one with the highest public debt, over 2200 €billions, Greece has just 300. I don't believe the monetary union could survive the exit of an economy large like Italy.

AIUI, Italy's debt is a bit like Japan's, most of it is held domestically.

Edited by Borghetto on Tuesday 30th June 14:28

Well, yes, the quote not held domestically has descreased a lot since 2007 when it was over 50% but it is still 36% now, still an awful lot of money...

[Quarterly]

Stig said:

grantone said:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/20...

Maybe not representative, but completed since the Referendum announcement, 55 out of 100 Greeks surveyed in this Guardian piece are going to vote to stay in the Eurozone. (Not sure why it won't work as a link)

Which is why after a few days of closed banks, 60 euro withdrawal limits there will be a big swing to the 'YES' vote and normal service will be resumed.

Billions more Euros will be flushed away as a consequence and history's most expensive can, will be booted down the road a bit further.

Did anyone else watch on Newsnight yesterday, they were interviewing two journalists from Greek newspapers who had opposing views on the referendum, but BOTH agreed that even if they are thrown out of the Euro, they won't be thrown out of the EU. They both also thought that what ever happens in the referendum it still strengthens their negotiating position. Yes thats right, even if they get thrown out of the Euro, they still think the EU should continue to pay.

[Stig]

Quarterly said:

Yes thats right, even if they get thrown out of the Euro, they still think the EU should continue to pay.

Remember, where there's blame, there's a claim!!

[Mark Benson]

Stig said:

grantone said:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/20...

Maybe not representative, but completed since the Referendum announcement, 55 out of 100 Greeks surveyed in this Guardian piece are going to vote to stay in the Eurozone. (Not sure why it won't work as a link)

Which is why after a few days of closed banks, 60 euro withdrawal limits there will be a big swing to the 'YES' vote and normal service will be resumed.

Billions more Euros will be flushed away as a consequence and history's most expensive can, will be booted down the road a bit further.

Just in: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33325886

Tsipras has been painted into a corner:

"Speaking live on state TV on Monday evening, Mr Tsipras appealed to Greeks to reject the creditors' proposals, saying this would give Greece "more powerful weapons" to take to the negotiating table.

Mr Tsipras also hinted strongly that he would resign if the result of the referendum was a "yes" vote.

"If the Greek people want to proceed with austerity plans in perpetuity, which will leave us unable to lift our head... we will respect it, but we will not be the ones to carry it out," he said."

So for the average Greek, which poison do you take? Given that they are in this mess for taking the 'easy' way out, I can't see them voting to leave whilst still suckling at the inexaustible teat of the EU.

Edited by Stig on Tuesday 30th June 15:29

That's it then - servitudeice as usual for the Greeks for a generation.

[Andy Zarse]

matsoc said:

Borghetto said:

matsoc said:

Since the beginning of the sovereign debt crisis among the countries you stated Italy is the only that hasn't effectively any money from FMI but it the one with the highest public debt, over 2200 €billions, Greece has just 300. I don't believe the monetary union could survive the exit of an economy large like Italy.

AIUI, Italy's debt is a bit like Japan's, most of it is held domestically.

Edited by Borghetto on Tuesday 30th June 14:28

Well, yes, the quote not held domestically has descreased a lot since 2007 when it was over 50% but it is still 36% now, still an awful lot of money...

If Greece defaults to the IMF/ECB/EU mechanisms AFAIUI Italy is in for about EU68BN losses. I'm guessing they will have to come up with a cunning way of hiding the cost of their folly from the populus.

Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 30th June 15:54

[gruffalo]

Greece now looking for a 2 year bailout.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33325886

The Greek government is reportedly planning to request a new two-year bailout deal from the eurozone.
It comes just hours ahead of a deadline to repay €1.6bn (£1.1bn) to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Reports of the move to call for aid from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) emerged as Greek leaders held talks over the European Commission's latest proposal for economic reforms.
If Athens accepts the EC deal, it will free up cash to repay the €1.6bn.

[Mermaid]

Doing a "Greece" - new phrase/excuse added to the world of borrowing & not paying.

[turbobloke]

Mermaid said:

Doing a "Greece" - new phrase/excuse added to the world of borrowing & not paying.

How about "Making a Drachma Out of a Crisis" to be added to the EU lexicon.

[EskimoArapaho]

Ms Merkel doesn't want to talk until after the referendum, it seems.

[Mermaid]

EskimoArapaho said:

Ms Merkel doesn't want to talk until after the referendum, it seems.

I would not put it past the Greeks to propose a 2nd referendum, if the 1st one does not provide the correct answer, EU style.

[gruffalo]

EskimoArapaho said:

Ms Merkel doesn't want to talk until after the referendum, it seems.

I get the impression that all patience is now lost with Greece and they are going to be left to their own fate.

And frankly who can blame Merkel when Greece announced to the world that it was rolling all this months IMF payments into one Christine Lagarde immediately came out and said that if the payment due on the 30th June was not received on time then a default would be declared and under international law a country in default has to change their currency and yet Greece announces a referendum to be held 5 days after they will be considered in default.

Their strategy is hard to fathom but it seems to be to stick two fingers up at every one and then ask them for help. I wonder why it doesn't seem to be working.

[Gargamel]

The EU have made a paper profit of around 3bn Euros on the interest collected on Greek Bonds, this money is technically owed back to the Greek Government.

It has been a source of some dispute as to whether the EU should immediately release these funds to enable the Greeks to pay.

The EU clearly could do so, without making any fresh loans or commitments, this could in theory enable Greece to pay the IMF today, and hold the referendum.

[911Gary]

Andy Zarse said:

If Greece defaults to the IMF/ECB/EU mechanisms AFAIUI Italy is in for about EU68BN losses. I'm guessing they will have to come up with a cunning way of hiding the cost of their folly from the populus.

Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 30th June 15:54

How can Italy as a bankrupt bailed out state lend money to another? IE If Italy were in default for example how do they call in their debtors to pay of their own liabilities? Are they controlled by the EU/IMF/ECB?
If so the lot must surely crash down like a house of cards.

[Borghetto]

Gargamel said:

The EU have made a paper profit of around 3bn Euros on the interest collected on Greek Bonds, this money is technically owed back to the Greek Government.

It has been a source of some dispute as to whether the EU should immediately release these funds to enable the Greeks to pay.

The EU clearly could do so, without making any fresh loans or commitments, this could in theory enable Greece to pay the IMF today, and hold the referendum.

So the ECB have lent the Greek banks tens of billions of euros in liquidity loans. I keep on seeing quoted that this is all secured. Secured to what?. If its Greek government bonds, how on earth are they going to collect, if Greece goes pop. Shouldn't this liquidity assistance be added to the hundreds of billions the Greeks are already in hock for and show the true figure of their indebtedness; which is way above 180% of GDP. Or am I missing something?

[Cheib]

gruffalo said:

Their strategy is hard to fathom but it seems to be to stick two fingers up at every one and then ask them for help. I wonder why it doesn't seem to be working.

I think two things

1) They thought the EU/IMF would cave in....nobody wants to destroy a countries economy like they have done deliberately IMHO. It'll take years to unwind the damage of just the deposit flight overseas.

2) They really wanted to stir up hatred for the Germans/French amongst the other debtor nations.

[Andy Zarse]

911Gary said:

Andy Zarse said:

If Greece defaults to the IMF/ECB/EU mechanisms AFAIUI Italy is in for about EU68BN losses. I'm guessing they will have to come up with a cunning way of hiding the cost of their folly from the populus.

Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 30th June 15:54

How can Italy as a bankrupt bailed out state lend money to another? IE If Italy were in default for example how do they call in their debtors to pay of their own liabilities? Are they controlled by the EU/IMF/ECB?
If so the lot must surely crash down like a house of cards.

Italy hasn't been directly bailed out (except for via LTROs/QE etc, which is not direct).

She can still access the bond market, and generally borrows from Italian banks secured against Italian Govt bonds. Honestly, it's as safe as houses.

[andy-xr]

gruffalo said:

Greece now looking for a 2 year bailout.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33325886

The Greek government is reportedly planning to request a new two-year bailout deal from the eurozone.
It comes just hours ahead of a deadline to repay €1.6bn (£1.1bn) to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Reports of the move to call for aid from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) emerged as Greek leaders held talks over the European Commission's latest proposal for economic reforms.
If Athens accepts the EC deal, it will free up cash to repay the €1.6bn.

I love this! And I shan't be playing chess with any Greeks at anytime soon. I think the ESM people will fold

[Cheib]

The real economy in Greece is in tatters...I work for a company which has very close links. Young Greek lad at work is supposed to be going home for summer holiday. His parents can't buy his Easyjet ticket because it's considered an overseas cash transfer.....

[Mermaid]

Merkel getting tough, no deals till after the referendum.