Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Mermaid]

Merkel getting tough, no deals till after the referendum.

[EskimoArapaho]

andy-xr said:

I love this! And I shan't be playing chess with any Greeks at anytime soon. I think the ESM people will fold

Well, the bad news is that the ESM bail-out would come with one of those pesky "Memorandum of Understandings" attached. Mr Tsipras had some sort of issue with the last one... http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/02/28/greek-p...

Mr T said:

All those who bet on a third Memorandum in June will be disappointed – Memoranda are done.

Edited by EskimoArapaho on Tuesday 30th June 17:51

[andy-xr]

EskimoArapaho said:

Well, the bad news is that the ESM bail-out would come with one of those pesky "Memorandum of Understandings" attached. Mr Tsipras had some sort of issue with the last one... http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/02/28/greek-p...

I kind of assumed that he'd be 'yeah yeah, course, we'll pay you back....<suckers>' and that this was the main play for getting new funding today/tomorrow/this week rather than actually having any kind of plan in 2 years to either be in power still or pay it back

Edited by andy-xr on Tuesday 30th June 17:54

[Steffan]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I agree with your dry appreciation of the reality of the fickle Greek positions. I do hope A Merkel maintains the no deal position until after the referenda and then maintains exactly the same requirements as the EU did before this obvious ploy was foisted upon Greece by Syriza. I also agree that the Greek government is in this for what they can get out of it. The EU have failed to understand the reality of the hopless insolvency and inadequacy of the Greece economy itself and that Greece therefore, cannot possibly afford to maintain itself within the Euro and the EU. The Greeks are playing this for all they can fiddle through this system. Thus far some €350 Billion Euros and rising.

The EU is running serious risks of being seen by the markets and perhaps more seriously, the other failing states within the EU, as being a very soft touch. If more money is offered by the EU to Greece then more EQ money will be seen by outsiders as the being thrown away by the EU on a nonsense dream. Greece has not managed to achieve any improvement in their economy over the last five years of receiving subsidy from the EU. The EU needs to man up on this nonsense. Greece has not introduced the serious economic changes necessary to remaining within the EU and Greece has nointentionofnintriducing such changes. Greece is simply hoping for further subsidy.

Time for sharp exit, I think!

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

Time for sharp exit, I think!

Relief for the remaining & responsible 18.

For Greece, it could turn out be a social catastrophe well beyond anything the country has had to endure so far - unless they change their habits,discipline overnight. I think they will vote to stay in

[DJRC]

spikeyhead said:

DJRC said:

The end of the Euro may or may not be nigh but far more importantly however the end of the greatest horse in history has arrived

Kauto Star has died. Something that frankly I regard as vastly more tragic than the Euro.

I always won more out of Desert Orchid.

Aren't you getting paid in sand now?

Alas Ive about 10k to be paid to me this week in Euros for my last lot of expenses and salary. All I needed was the fking Greeks to have put this off by a week - the selfish bds!

Then its back to the £ and some sand

[Vaud]

I'm sure these have been posted many times before:

How 'magic' made Greek debt disappear before it joined the euro
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16834815

Greece ‘Cheated’ to Join Euro, Former ECB Economist Issing Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-05-26/...

[Mermaid]

Will the referendum even take place? Was it just a ploy?

[PugwasHDJ80]

Vaud said:

I'm sure these have been posted many times before:

How 'magic' made Greek debt disappear before it joined the euro
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16834815

Greece ‘Cheated’ to Join Euro, Former ECB Economist Issing Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-05-26/...

had no one ever heard of due diligence?

[Vaud]

PugwasHDJ80 said:

had no one ever heard of due diligence?

I think they had, but the political ideal of one glorious booming Europe outweighed common sense, long term thinking and rationality.

[tescorank]

Green MP nutty as normal


http://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2015/06/29/brig...

[Steffan]

Mermaid said:

Will the referendum even take place? Was it just a ploy?

Mermsid I do agree you are right to ask that question. Syriza certainly has been that duplicitous, in their handling of this matter. If this refernda does not take place then I think the Greek government really will look All Greek to the rest of the EU. In those circumstances, I cannot see any further negotiations taking pace. At that point the credibility of Syriza as responsible (!?) politicians would evaporate.

The latest application to the EU from Syriza, today, without any notice whatsoever, for a further loan from the ESF ffor another additional 29 Billion Euros,until 2017, on top of all the loans already thrown at Greece by the EU in the sum of €350 Billion to date, apparently just to tide Greece over, really does confirm the ridiculous depths to which Syriza are prepared to plunge Greece. This does expose the reality of the complete nonsense that this mess has become.

Syriza are acting like children in a sweet shop and blythly asking for more, and more, and more. Knowing full well that the money will never be repaid to the lenders, were anyone follosh enough to trust Syriza. They are after all committed Socialists. Time for the EU to wise up and see this for what ihas now become. A money grabbing excercise for Greece. Continuing to negotiate with this bunch of cowboys has become a nonsense.

Definitely time for, A Sharp Exit! :

[Vaud]

To pay back, Greece needs a sustainable, growing economy. It is foolish to lend money centrally with the majority going to pay back debts.

I'm not a fan of debt cut, but longer term repayment (a la war bonds with 50-100yr pay back) would free up the payments to actually invest in the economy to return to growth.

No don't misread me - the current party are not the ones to do it - but the current model is unsustainable in the long term - and the IMF agree.

Root and branch reform is needed, austerity in some areas is also key - but growth is the important factor.

[Axionknight]

Apparently the answer is NEIN

Ho ho ho

[Steffan]

Vaud said:

To pay back, Greece needs a sustainable, growing economy. It is foolish to lend money centrally with the majority going to pay back debts.

I'm not a fan of debt cut, but longer term repayment (a la war bonds with 50-100yr pay back) would free up the payments to actually invest in the economy to return to growth.

No don't misread me - the current party are not the ones to do it - but the current model is unsustainable in the long term - and the IMF agree.

Root and branch reform is needed, austerity in some areas is also key - but growth is the important factor.

I would agree that the only way for Greece to recover is through major stuctural changes to the Greek economy to massively improve the competitiveness thereof and major strucural change within Greece, itself, toremove the majority of the fiddles hidden in the Greek economy currently. It would also be essential to introduce effective taxation into Greece. Which currently is an absurd joke. The fact that the changes are so basic and are being utterly denied as necessary by Syriza, demonstrates the utter nonsense that the current tryons by Syriza have now become, in reality. All this is after five years of subsidised receivery time has been totally wasted by Greece. Time only made possible by the generosity of the EU!

Growth in the Greek economy would also be good. But achieving growth within a balanced budget, within Greece in its hoplessly insolvent state currently, is quite impossible. Unless Greece undertakes these essential, reforms, which Greece has studiously failed to do in the five years of recovery time to date, then, there can be no economic recovery within Greece. In consequence Greece must exit the EU.

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 30th June 22:54

[Bodo]

DJRC said:

Alas Ive about 10k to be paid to me this week in Euros for my last lot of expenses and salary. All I needed was the fking Greeks to have put this off by a week - the selfish bds!

Then its back to the £ and some sand

GBP/EUR went from 1.395 to 1.41 in the last seven days. What's your concern?

[DJRC]

Bodo said:

DJRC said:

Alas Ive about 10k to be paid to me this week in Euros for my last lot of expenses and salary. All I needed was the fking Greeks to have put this off by a week - the selfish bds!

Then its back to the £ and some sand

GBP/EUR went from 1.395 to 1.41 in the last seven days. What's your concern?

Cos it might be 1.43 by Friday! A cpl of weeks ago it was below 1.38. When I started this contract it was 1.15 !!

[DJRC]

Steffan said:

Mermaid said:

Will the referendum even take place? Was it just a ploy?

Mermsid I do agree you are right to ask that question. Syriza certainly has been that duplicitous, in their handling of this matter. If this refernda does not take place then I think the Greek government really will look All Greek to the rest of the EU. In those circumstances, I cannot see any further negotiations taking pace. At that point the credibility of Syriza as responsible (!?) politicians would evaporate.

The latest application to the EU from Syriza, today, without any notice whatsoever, for a further loan from the ESF ffor another additional 29 Billion Euros,until 2017, on top of all the loans already thrown at Greece by the EU in the sum of €350 Billion to date, apparently just to tide Greece over, really does confirm the ridiculous depths to which Syriza are prepared to plunge Greece. This does expose the reality of the complete nonsense that this mess has become.

Syriza are acting like children in a sweet shop and blythly asking for more, and more, and more. Knowing full well that the money will never be repaid to the lenders, were anyone follosh enough to trust Syriza. They are after all committed Socialists. Time for the EU to wise up and see this for what ihas now become. A money grabbing excercise for Greece. Continuing to negotiate with this bunch of cowboys has become a nonsense.

Definitely time for, A Sharp Exit! :

No they haven't though Steffan. Syriza have done exactly what they said in January. The logical outcome of what they said they would do has happened, thats all.

What *was* duplicitous was the Greeks believing they could have renegotiations, more acceptable terms and conditions and remain in the Euro and forever subsidised.

Tsippy and Yan the Man have followed a very simple game plan from start to finish. Bring a hardline negotiating plot to the table and stick to it, driving the opposition to the only conclusion possible and the conclusion that Tsippy and Yanny wanted from the start - the Germans/Troika being the bad guys and punishing Greece by driving them out of the Euro. They had no mandate to leave the Euro in Jan, they will after the referendum (if they win). A gamble yes, but a favourable one for them. And gives them carte blanche.

Angie and Wolfgang for their part have got what they wanted - German banks solidified, debt contagion neutralised, the German "domestic" European market maintained. Job done.



Syriza have (almost) got what they want. The Germans have got what they want. Nobody else -that includes the French, Spanish, Italians, Portuguese, Junker, Barroso, Mario etc - was important or relevant.

[Magog]

Interestingly the USA seems to be facing a comparable situation to that of the EU/Greece in Puerto Rico.

[AJL308]

DJRC said:

Cos it might be 1.43 by Friday! A cpl of weeks ago it was below 1.38. When I started this contract it was 1.15 !!

It was 1.43 a few days ago when Grece gave the big F-Off to the rest of Europe. Mentioned a few days back on this thread as I recall.