Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[maffski]

DJRC said:

Alas Ive about 10k to be paid to me this week in Euros for my last lot of expenses and salary. All I needed was the fking Greeks to have put this off by a week - the selfish bds!

Then its back to the £ and some sand

Keep them in Euros - Greek 2 year bond look to have a good yield, what could go wrong?

[AJL308]

Steffan said:

The BBC have suggested that Greece has failed to pay the IMF the sum due currently

see : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33339363

First time for any developed nation in the last 70 years I think

Still waiting for that and still will be after midnight.

[Driller]

AJL308 said:

Steffan said:

The BBC have suggested that Greece has failed to pay the IMF the sum due currently

see : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33339363

First time for any developed nation in the last 70 years I think

Still waiting for that and still will be after midnight.

Watching this with interest. The can just got a whole lot bigger!

[sanf]

A daft question - that I've not heard a simple answer to yet.

Why is it a disaster if Greece exits the Euro and or the EU?? All the presenters/commentators and correspondence on the news keep telling us it will be a disaster for everyone, but not actually why.

I get that Greece owe a shed load of people a bucket full of cash, and they are looking likely to default this, meaning anyone that is a creditor won't get much, if anything back - in the normal style of debts/defaults/bankruptcy. Ultimately if they were a person, hopelessly over indebted, not enough income and looking to borrow more debt to pay the existing ones, sooner or later the advice would be default/bankruptcy, start-again.

But from there what is the impending disaster??

Is that Greece may do trade deals with other countries, offer very cheap holidays (with a massively deflated currency), get their economy back on track and show the EU is not all it's cracked up to be? Thus making other countries think the grass is greener?

Alternatively, Greece owes so much to other EU countries and when the don't pay it back, other EU countries will fold as well??

What is the actual disaster awaiting the whole world, once beyond the default?

[Art0ir]

sanf said:

A daft question - that I've not heard a simple answer to yet.

Why is it a disaster if Greece exits the Euro and or the EU?? All the presenters/commentators and correspondence on the news keep telling us it will be a disaster for everyone, but not actually why.

I get that Greece owe a shed load of people a bucket full of cash, and they are looking likely to default this, meaning anyone that is a creditor won't get much, if anything back - in the normal style of debts/defaults/bankruptcy. Ultimately if they were a person, hopelessly over indebted, not enough income and looking to borrow more debt to pay the existing ones, sooner or later the advice would be default/bankruptcy, start-again.

But from there what is the impending disaster??

Is that Greece may do trade deals with other countries, offer very cheap holidays (with a massively deflated currency), get their economy back on track and show the EU is not all it's cracked up to be? Thus making other countries think the grass is greener?

Alternatively, Greece owes so much to other EU countries and when the don't pay it back, other EU countries will fold as well??

What is the actual disaster awaiting the whole world, once beyond the default?

It will be a disaster for the insiders.

[AJL308]

Driller said:

AJL308 said:

Steffan said:

The BBC have suggested that Greece has failed to pay the IMF the sum due currently

see : http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33339363

First time for any developed nation in the last 70 years I think

Still waiting for that and still will be after midnight.

Watching this with interest. The can just got a whole lot bigger!

The point that I was making was that even if Greece defaults we will still be waiting for a 'developed' nation to default.

[AJL308]

sanf said:

A daft question - that I've not heard a simple answer to yet.

Why is it a disaster if Greece exits the Euro and or the EU?? All the presenters/commentators and correspondence on the news keep telling us it will be a disaster for everyone, but not actually why.

It won't be.

The left media needs to convince everyone to the contrary because they believe in the European project with a religious like fervour which is why we are hearing about it so much. If Greece leaves then it's easier for net contributors like us to leave and that is when their EU project implodes.

[AJL308]

sanf said:

A daft question - that I've not heard a simple answer to yet.

Why is it a disaster if Greece exits the Euro and or the EU?? All the presenters/commentators and correspondence on the news keep telling us it will be a disaster for everyone, but not actually why.

It won't be.

The left media needs to convince everyone to the contrary because they believe in the European project with a religious like fervour which is why we are hearing about it so much. If Greece leaves then it's easier for net contributors like us to leave and that is when their EU project implodes.

[grantone]

sanf said:

A daft question - that I've not heard a simple answer to yet.

Why is it a disaster if Greece exits the Euro and or the EU?? All the presenters/commentators and correspondence on the news keep telling us it will be a disaster for everyone, but not actually why.

I get that Greece owe a shed load of people a bucket full of cash, and they are looking likely to default this, meaning anyone that is a creditor won't get much, if anything back - in the normal style of debts/defaults/bankruptcy. Ultimately if they were a person, hopelessly over indebted, not enough income and looking to borrow more debt to pay the existing ones, sooner or later the advice would be default/bankruptcy, start-again.

But from there what is the impending disaster??

Is that Greece may do trade deals with other countries, offer very cheap holidays (with a massively deflated currency), get their economy back on track and show the EU is not all it's cracked up to be? Thus making other countries think the grass is greener?

Alternatively, Greece owes so much to other EU countries and when the don't pay it back, other EU countries will fold as well??

What is the actual disaster awaiting the whole world, once beyond the default?

The disaster for Greece is that they would struggle to buy things on the international market with the Drachma and that would seriously mess up their supply chains for functioning parts of the economy. Fuel, bulk raw materials, IT and telecoms equipment, etc... You then risk a massive brain drain as job prospects are even more limited than they are today, so no-one is left to rebuild the economy.

The disaster for Eurozone is twofold. First they have a massively destabilised country right on the doorstep that is potentially open to unwelcome foreign influence. Second would be that the genie is out the bag, the Euro is reversible and the Eurozone members will not fully backstop each other. It's not a single currency any more, it's just a group of countries with a slightly flamboyant currency peg mechanism. The risk now is that currency speculators can take advantage of this and force more splits (see George Soros UK 1992). Imagine losing a country every boom & bust cycle, it would be very difficult to plan for and soon none of the nations would trust each other.

The disaster for the world is not really a disaster, but it could easily knock back global growth by a small fraction as there is minor supply chain disruption, productivity is lost as people spend time dealing with the consequences instead of producing and sentiment dips leading to lower investment.

Having said all that Greece could flourish without the debt and the ability to devalue it's obligations away, the Eurozone gets rid of a dead weight and the world just gets on with it as no-one really cares about a tiny country with a GDP that's more like a rounding error in the global scheme of things.

[anonymous-user]

^ Good answer.

The risk to Greece is woefully underestimated by many people who do not realise how utterly dependent we all are on a functioning banking system. How long do cities remain civil after the last cash machine is emptied? Secondly cheap holidays are not the panacea everyone imagines. They are cheap because everyone is dirt poor but all the imports needed to sustain that industry become hugely expensive. Sadly you can't build a hotel out of olives, lamb and yoghurt, no matter how yummy it might be.

[All that jazz]

sanf said:

A daft question - that I've not heard a simple answer to yet.

Why is it a disaster if Greece exits the Euro and or the EU?? All the presenters/commentators and correspondence on the news keep telling us it will be a disaster for everyone, but not actually why.

I get that Greece owe a shed load of people a bucket full of cash, and they are looking likely to default this, meaning anyone that is a creditor won't get much, if anything back - in the normal style of debts/defaults/bankruptcy. Ultimately if they were a person, hopelessly over indebted, not enough income and looking to borrow more debt to pay the existing ones, sooner or later the advice would be default/bankruptcy, start-again.

But from there what is the impending disaster??

Is that Greece may do trade deals with other countries, offer very cheap holidays (with a massively deflated currency), get their economy back on track and show the EU is not all it's cracked up to be? Thus making other countries think the grass is greener?

Alternatively, Greece owes so much to other EU countries and when the don't pay it back, other EU countries will fold as well??

What is the actual disaster awaiting the whole world, once beyond the default?

The wheels must stay on the EU party bus at all costs!!!!! They cannot allow their EU pet project to fail!

[All that jazz]

AJL308 said:

sanf said:

A daft question - that I've not heard a simple answer to yet.

Why is it a disaster if Greece exits the Euro and or the EU?? All the presenters/commentators and correspondence on the news keep telling us it will be a disaster for everyone, but not actually why.

It won't be.

The left media needs to convince everyone to the contrary because they believe in the European project with a religious like fervour which is why we are hearing about it so much. If Greece leaves then it's easier for net contributors like us to leave and that is when their EU project implodes.

Exactly this! ^

[AJS-]

It would be a much bigger disaster for the prestige of the Euro and it's supporters than for the people of Greece or the rest of the EU, or anyone else.

[RYH64E]

AJS- said:

It would be a much bigger disaster for the prestige of the Euro and it's supporters than for the people of Greece or the rest of the EU, or anyone else.

It looks like a pretty big disaster for the people of Greece to me, banks closed and withdrawals limited to €60 per day is going to cause major hardship very quickly.

I don't know how long the banks will remain closed but without support from the ECB their reserves are not going to miraculously replenish come Monday, without access to funds otherwise viable businesses will start going bust very soon and the downward spiral accelerates.

[AJS-]

It's a full on collapse at the moment, and horrendous for the people living there.

What I meant was that leaving the Euro and issuing Drachma, the only real way out of this mess, would be far more of a disaster for the Euro-enthusiasts than it would for the Greek people. It would mean a few difficult years, but it would allow them to start rebuilding.

[turbobloke]

RYH64E said:

AJS- said:

It would be a much bigger disaster for the prestige of the Euro and it's supporters than for the people of Greece or the rest of the EU, or anyone else.

It looks like a pretty big disaster for the people of Greece to me, banks closed and withdrawals limited to €60 per day is going to cause major hardship very quickly.

Hold on though, that disaster as you rightly called it is all within the EZ, within the EU. The gist of comments you were replying to referred to Greece in a different context - leaving the EZ and the EU.

RYH64E said:

I don't know how long the banks will remain closed but without support from the ECB their reserves are not going to miraculously replenish come Monday, without access to funds otherwise viable businesses will start going bust very soon and the downward spiral accelerates.

The pickle that Greece is in, in terms of being unable to save itself via a national interest hand on more controls than it has, arose from being in the EU and the EZ.

More handouts that kick the can further down the road don't look any more useful than a sticking plaster over a gaping wound.

You do have to wonder, what on earth has to happen for a "viable business" to be viable only when the country it's in is being gifted £billions on a regular basis. The answer is obvious. Something is fundamentally wrong, and fundamental change will be needed to bring about a long-term solution.

Germans may or may not remember the debt relief their country received in the 1950s. The problem for Greece is that, as the posts you referred to correctly indicated, the EU cannot afford an explicit write-off as far as Greek debt is concerned. Not because it would be bad for Greece but because it will harm other countries and make it harder for the EZ and EU to hold together in the fallout. This is what the EU priority is, it's not the plight of Greek businesses.

[turbobloke]

AJS- said:

It's a full on collapse at the moment, and horrendous for the people living there.

What I meant was that leaving the Euro and issuing Drachma, the only real way out of this mess, would be far more of a disaster for the Euro-enthusiasts than it would for the Greek people. It would mean a few difficult years, but it would allow them to start rebuilding.

Yes, fundamental change is needed, and if that can't be an explicit sizeable debt write-off then goodbye EZ hello Drachma.

However the eurocrats haven't got any appetite for that due to the paramount interests of the EZ and EU and of countries other than Greece, as PHers are indicating.

Billions via X to repay billions owed via Y is going to do what after 2 years...require billions via Z. And on the EZ staggers, as the Greeks stagger and collapse.

Edited by turbobloke on Wednesday 1st July 07:05

[Steffan]

turbobloke said:

RYH64E said:

AJS- said:

It would be a much bigger disaster for the prestige of the Euro and it's supporters than for the people of Greece or the rest of the EU, or anyone else.

It looks like a pretty big disaster for the people of Greece to me, banks closed and withdrawals limited to €60 per day is going to cause major hardship very quickly.

Hold on though, that disaster as you rightly called it is all within the EZ, within the EU. The gist of comments you were replying to referred to Greece in a different context - leaving the EZ and the EU.

RYH64E said:

I don't know how long the banks will remain closed but without support from the ECB their reserves are not going to miraculously replenish come Monday, without access to funds otherwise viable businesses will start going bust very soon and the downward spiral accelerates.

The pickle that Greece is in, in terms of being unable to save itself via a national interest hand on more controls than it has, arose from being in the EU and the EZ.

More handouts that kick the can further down the road don't look any more useful than a sticking plaster over a gaping wound.

You do have to wonder, what on earth has to happen for a "viable business" to be viable only when the country it's in is being gifted £billions on a regular basis. The answer is obvious. Something is fundamentally wrong, and fundamental change will be needed to bring about a long-term solution.

Germans may or may not remember the debt relief their country received in the 1950s. The problem for Greece is that, as the posts you referred to correctly indicated, the EU cannot afford an explicit write-off as far as Greek debt is concerned. Not because it would be bad for Greece but because it will harm other countries and make it harder for the EZ and EU to hold together in the fallout. This is what the EU priority is, it's not the plight of Greek businesses.

turbobloke said:

AJS- said:

It's a full on collapse at the moment, and horrendous for the people living there.

What I meant was that leaving the Euro and issuing Drachma, the only real way out of this mess, would be far more of a disaster for the Euro-enthusiasts than it would for the Greek people. It would mean a few difficult years, but it would allow them to start rebuilding.

Yes, fundamental change is needed, and if that can't be an explicit sizeable debt write-off then goodbye EZ hello Drachma.

However the eurocrats haven't got any appetite for that due to the paramount interests of the EZ and EU and of countries other than Greece, as PHers are indicating.

Billions via X to repay billions owed via Y is going to do what after 2 years...require billions via Z. And on the EZ staggers, as the Greeks stagger and collapse.

Edited by turbobloke on Wednesday 1st July 07:05

Two highly detailed and very accurate posts by Turbobloke.

As he correctly says this nonsense has great significance for the EU because once one country drops out of the EU which has been oroffered as a supposed bastion of strength that dream is shattered and the EU becomes vulnerable to criticism for the failing. This has always been about the machinations of the EU leaders and Bureacrats who have tirelessly sought to create a fantastic structure within the EU that gives them, personally, power, wealth and privilege, with huge income streams, limitless expenses and a platform to strut about on the world stage.

By the End of July, the month we are all now in, Greece will have to find ANOTHER €3.9,000,000,000 Euros to repay their creditors. It is a totally ridiculous fantasy and that fantasy has now turned into a real nightmare for both Greece and the EU, neither of whom will come well out of this. This always was an unsustainable nonsense and this remains an unsustainable nonsense. Major changes to all concerned will follow this matter.

[AJS-]

I think that will depend who X, Y and Z are. A lot of the Greek tragedy so far has bailed out the likes of BNP Paribas and others.

[RYH64E]

turbobloke said:

RYH64E said:

AJS- said:

It would be a much bigger disaster for the prestige of the Euro and it's supporters than for the people of Greece or the rest of the EU, or anyone else.

It looks like a pretty big disaster for the people of Greece to me, banks closed and withdrawals limited to €60 per day is going to cause major hardship very quickly.

Hold on though, that disaster as you rightly called it is all within the EZ, within the EU. The gist of comments you were replying to referred to Greece in a different context - leaving the EZ and the EU.

RYH64E said:

I don't know how long the banks will remain closed but without support from the ECB their reserves are not going to miraculously replenish come Monday, without access to funds otherwise viable businesses will start going bust very soon and the downward spiral accelerates.

The pickle that Greece is in, in terms of being unable to save itself via a national interest hand on more controls than it has, arose from being in the EU and the EZ.

More handouts that kick the can further down the road don't look any more useful than a sticking plaster over a gaping wound.

You do have to wonder, what on earth has to happen for a "viable business" to be viable only when the country it's in is being gifted £billions on a regular basis. The answer is obvious. Something is fundamentally wrong, and fundamental change will be needed to bring about a long-term solution.

Germans may or may not remember the debt relief their country received in the 1950s. The problem for Greece is that, as the posts you referred to correctly indicated, the EU cannot afford an explicit write-off as far as Greek debt is concerned. Not because it would be bad for Greece but because it will harm other countries and make it harder for the EZ and EU to hold together in the fallout. This is what the EU priority is, it's not the plight of Greek businesses.

What the Greek people are experiencing at the moment is a foretaste of life outside the EZ, the ECB have largely withdrawn support following the breakdown of negotiations so they are only on the fringes of the EZ at present. Depending how the referendum goes this weekend Greece could either find themselves back at the negotiating table, ECB support restored, banks open, or back to the Drachma, banks closed, businesses going bust in droves. I would be amazed if the people of Greece take the risky option of going it alone, regardless of the long term prospects the immediate future would be grim.