Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Pan Pan Pan]

RYH64E said:

Blib said:

However, this situation was created solely by membership of the Euro.

Not so, this situation was created the failure of Greece to run a modern, efficient economy. Regardless of whether they stay in the EZ or revert to the Drachma, they are going to have to change their ways and accept that they can't afford for hairdressers to retire at 50 on a full pension etc.

Greece hasn't been successful since someone applied for planning permission to build the Parthenon... Why would this change simply by reverting to the Drachma?

This. I was there years ago (for both holiday and work purposes) and was shocked at the attitude I found prevalent there, such that on leaving the country, my thoughts were that if all of Greece is like this, they don't have much of a future in front of them. And now years later, it seems the impression I got of the way they operate, has now come home to roost.
As noted by others as well as myself, this monumental cock up is the result of both the attitude of the Greeks (which really ought to have been taken into account when their case for admittance was up for discussion) and the EU hierarchy`s wish to further the great EU project (at all costs)
I suggested a new term for defaulting on debt, many postings ago, as `doing a Greeky' But why do so many seem surprised that the Greeks have stayed true to form and done `a Greeky?'

[QuantumTokoloshi]

turbobloke said:

"What the Greek people are experiencing at the moment is a foretaste of life outside the EZ" isn't quite right.

It won't be instant nirvana far from it but outside the EZ there are more options for Greece to select from when navigating their recovery.

Iceland told creditors to take a hike in 2008. They also imposed capital controls and allowed the value of their currency to fall, because they could.

The krona lost ~half of its value against the euro in five years.

Experts said that Iceland would be punished as a persona non grata with the international financial markets.

Yet it was rehabilitated and sold $1bn of 10-year bonds to investors in 2012.

"eaten olives are soon forgotten"

Iceland rating upgrade lifted from Baa2 from Baa3 2 days ago.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/351961/iceland-upgrade

Edited by QuantumTokoloshi on Wednesday 1st July 10:23

[Blib]

Pan Pan Pan said:

RYH64E said:

Blib said:

However, this situation was created solely by membership of the Euro.

Not so, this situation was created the failure of Greece to run a modern, efficient economy. Regardless of whether they stay in the EZ or revert to the Drachma, they are going to have to change their ways and accept that they can't afford for hairdressers to retire at 50 on a full pension etc.

Greece hasn't been successful since someone applied for planning permission to build the Parthenon... Why would this change simply by reverting to the Drachma?

This. I was there years ago (for both holiday and work purposes) and was shocked at the attitude I found prevalent there, such that on leaving the country, my thoughts were that if all of Greece is like this, they don't have much of a future in front of them. And now years later, it seems the impression I got of the way they operate, has now come home to roost.
As noted by others as well as myself, this monumental cock up is the result of both the attitude of the Greeks (which really ought to have been taken into account when their case for admittance was up for discussion) and the EU hierarchy`s wish to further the great EU project (at all costs)
I suggested a new term for defaulting on debt, many postings ago, as `doing a Greeky' But why do so many seem surprised that the Greeks have stayed true to form and done `a Greeky?'

Once again I ask. If that was so obvious, why were they allowed to become members of the Euro? Greece's problem TODAY is doen to membership. Had they not been allowed in, they may and probably would have different problems. However, they would also have other, more flexible tools to deal with those problems.

[turbobloke]

QuantumTokoloshi said:

turbobloke said:

"What the Greek people are experiencing at the moment is a foretaste of life outside the EZ" isn't quite right.

It won't be instant nirvana far from it but outside the EZ there are more options for Greece to select from when navigating their recovery.

Iceland told creditors to take a hike in 2008. They also imposed capital controls and allowed the value of their currency to fall, because they could.

The krona lost ~half of its value against the euro in five years.

Experts said that Iceland would be punished as a persona non grata with the international financial markets.

Yet it was rehabilitated and sold $1bn of 10-year bonds to investors in 2012.

"eaten olives are soon forgotten"

Iceland rating upgrade lifted from Baa2 from Baa3 2 days ago.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/351961/iceland-upgrade

http://www.ft.com/fastft/351961/iceland-upgrade

3 months ago Iceland formally ended their bid to join the EU, which is more good news (for Iceland).

[Mermaid]

Medium/long term, Greece has more to gain than lose.

Euro Masters - their ego/face/balance sheet is more important than the fate of the Greeks.

[RYH64E]

There was a documentary on tv months ago where Greeks were interviewed about their attitudes towards the euro, surprisingly maybe, they were overwhelmingly positive about it and wanted to remain in the EZ. The key reason being that they hoped that membership of the EZ would impose some much needed discipline on their financial system and bring some stability to the economy, they weren't keen on going back to days of rampant inflation and ever depreciating currency. It would be interesting to see an updated version of the same programme today, but I fully expect the outcome of this weekend's referendum to be overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EZ, even if that means more austerity.

[chris watton]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Reminds me of that scene in game of Thrones, when a guy is trying to get a loan, to which the reply was, 'You can see how these numbers are unlikely to result in a happy ending'

[Borghetto]

Vaud said:

Cough, Salomon Brothers, cough.

I think you mean Goldman Sachs.

[Borghetto]

Iceland, unlike Greece has an educated population, motivated to work. They have oodles of Thermal energy along with a successful fishing/processing industry.

[turbobloke]

Borghetto said:

Iceland, unlike Greece has an educated population, motivated to work. They have oodles of Thermal energy along with a successful fishing/processing industry.

Which as a national interest understandably played a key part in ending their application to the EU.

[RYH64E]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Indeed, they talk about a mandate to end austerity as if all you have to do is vote for an end to poverty and it automatically happens.

Regardless of currency, for people to have a better life you need a strong economy, a point that our own Labour Party (and even more so, the SNP) would do well to note.

[Borghetto]

RYH64E said:

Regardless of currency, for people to have a better life you need a strong economy, a point that our own Labour Party (and even more so, the SNP) would do well to note.

But do they, like the SNP, have the Sovereign Will of their people - cos if not, they're sunk.

[RYH64E]

Borghetto said:

But do they, like the SNP, have the Sovereign Will of their people - cos if not, they're sunk.

The Sovereign Will of the Scottish people was clearly in favour of remaining part of the UK (much to the disappointment of the SNP), and I expect the Sovereign Will of the Greek people to be a similarly clear wish to remain part of the EZ, something which Syriza will find themselves somewhat unwilling to deliver.

[NailedOn]

RYH64E said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Indeed, they talk about a mandate to end austerity as if all you have to do is vote for an end to poverty and it automatically happens.

Regardless of currency, for people to have a better life you need a strong economy, a point that our own Labour Party (and even more so, the SNP) would do well to note.

These anti-austerity clowns are deluded.
The Greeks need to wake up to reality. They are close to outright economic failure due to their national 'money for nothing culture.' They don't pay enough taxes and want to reitire on fat pensions at 55. All these useless idiots including the SNP don't have a clue how to generate wealth.
When the Italians call you dishonest and idle, you're in trouble!

[Borghetto]

Guess which domestic banks are most exposed to Greece - Germany, US and the UK - we look in for about 10 billion - I wonder how much our banks lent over the last year or so http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33345219

Edited by Borghetto on Wednesday 1st July 15:05

[The Don of Croy]

Just to re-cap, at the start of the crisis in Greece there was rioting, including the targetting of banks where one premises was set alight leading to the deaths of three employees inside (emergency services impeded by rioters apparently).

At the same time it was common practice for Greek state employees to receive 14 monthly wage packets per year. Same in retirement. You might be tempted to riot to maintain that kind of largesse?

Average wage on the rail system - £60k per year in 2011. Cost to run railways - £500million, income from tickets £80million.

I could go on. The Greeks enjoyed the party, now the bill is due.

[RYH64E]

Here's a good article in The Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/g...

Telegraph said:

It was, perhaps, a rally for Athens's answer to Britain's "shy Tories" – those Greeks who are quietly horrified at the way their country is now portrayed as feckless and lazy, and as some kind of European version of Hugo Chavez's Venezuela.

No one railed furiously about the Eurozone's finance chiefs, and no one called Angela Merkel a Nazi. Instead, some were even willing to say the unsayable: that when it came to Greece's financial problems, Greeks themselves were to blame and nobody else.

"The Greeks have always blamed foreigners for their problems," said Marcos Diamandes, 55, who runs a shoemaking business. "We have a habit of doing this, but we need to look in the mirror at ourselves. what have we done wrong? Everything. We have made the state too big."

Petros Mandis, 35, an accountant, agreed. The reason Greece couldn't pay its bills, he said, was not because of the demands of the Eurozone creditors, but because of its vast, inefficient public sector, bloated by generations of politicians who doled out government jobs as a form of patronage.

"We believe in the private sector, and we do not want lazy public servants paid for by our taxes," he said.

What Greece needs is reform, not a return to the Drachma.

[Smollet]

RYH64E said:

What Greece needs is reform, not a return to the Drachma.

Actually a return to the drachma is needed as the Euro clearly hasn't worked for them whereas when they had the drachma they could manage their own economy. The Euro is the most ridiculous fiscal invention of recent times.

[Driller]

egor110 said:

How are they treated as second class citizens?

The fact is Greece has to impose public service cuts, they have to make people work until there older to make the savings and they refuse.

Oh come on, you must have had a weird, smelly kid in class who was much weaker than everyone else. I'm not saying it's normal to keep bailing them out, on the contrary, but from the PIV of the general public who are not to blame for anything in this, they must be pretty pissed off with the whole affair.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Blib said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

RYH64E said:

Blib said:

However, this situation was created solely by membership of the Euro.

Not so, this situation was created the failure of Greece to run a modern, efficient economy. Regardless of whether they stay in the EZ or revert to the Drachma, they are going to have to change their ways and accept that they can't afford for hairdressers to retire at 50 on a full pension etc.

Greece hasn't been successful since someone applied for planning permission to build the Parthenon... Why would this change simply by reverting to the Drachma?

This. I was there years ago (for both holiday and work purposes) and was shocked at the attitude I found prevalent there, such that on leaving the country, my thoughts were that if all of Greece is like this, they don't have much of a future in front of them. And now years later, it seems the impression I got of the way they operate, has now come home to roost.
As noted by others as well as myself, this monumental cock up is the result of both the attitude of the Greeks (which really ought to have been taken into account when their case for admittance was up for discussion) and the EU hierarchy`s wish to further the great EU project (at all costs)
I suggested a new term for defaulting on debt, many postings ago, as `doing a Greeky' But why do so many seem surprised that the Greeks have stayed true to form and done `a Greeky?'

Once again I ask. If that was so obvious, why were they allowed to become members of the Euro? Greece's problem TODAY is doen to membership. Had they not been allowed in, they may and probably would have different problems. However, they would also have other, more flexible tools to deal with those problems.

NO. Their failure today is down to practises, and attitudes that were in place in Greece long, long, long before the EU even existed. I have been there both before and after they were admitted to the EU
and I can tell you, I saw no changes whatsoever to the way they operate their country.
The EU gave them billions to drag their backward, basket case, country into the 21st century, so they could become a modern, functioning, contributing (off their own efforts) member state of the EU.
All they did was take the money, and carried on with their clearly unsustainable way of operating
refusing all calls for change and improvement, (which they are doing even NOW, even at the cliff edge
of self inflicted financial disaster)
How can one possibly help such an arrogant, dishonest, untrustworthy country, How can one possibly trade with people with this attitude to those who have given them huge amounts to enable them to help themselves, but who flatly refused to do so, and even NOW are refusing to do so?
They were given the cash by the EU because the EU hoped that they would use it to clean up their act, in the same way as that a drug addict, or alcoholic might be given assistance to clean up their lives, get back into society as a functioning entity. All they did was use the money to buy more drugs and booze, and then had the nerve to ask for more!!!! Whilst still flatly refusing to change their ways. Whether they stay in or out, they have a huge awakening in front of them, and it wont be vey pleasant either way.