Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Blib said:
He agrees with me that the return of the Drachma is the least worst solution.
The question is does Tsipras (secretly) agree with that as well? Has the past 4-5 months been an elaborate charade designed by him to ultimately lead to Euro exit (regardless of what he might say)?Is he very clever, or is he a headless chicken thinking things up on the hoof? No one really knows, and what will happen if he loses the referendum? Will he go? Stay? Call an election? No one has a clue.
It is pretty clear that Europe does not want to deal with him and wants him gone.
confused_buyer said:
Is he very clever, or is he a headless chicken thinking things up on the hoof? No one really knows, and what will happen if he loses the referendum? Will he go? Stay? Call an election? No one has a clue.
It is pretty clear that Europe does not want to deal with him and wants him gone.
Hasn't he said he will agree with most of the conditions?It is pretty clear that Europe does not want to deal with him and wants him gone.
confused_buyer said:
Blib said:
He agrees with me that the return of the Drachma is the least worst solution.
The question is does Tsipras (secretly) agree with that as well? Has the past 4-5 months been an elaborate charade designed by him to ultimately lead to Euro exit (regardless of what he might say)?Is he very clever, or is he a headless chicken thinking things up on the hoof? No one really knows, and what will happen if he loses the referendum? Will he go? Stay? Call an election? No one has a clue.
It is pretty clear that Europe does not want to deal with him and wants him gone.
Esseesse said:
confused_buyer said:
Blib said:
He agrees with me that the return of the Drachma is the least worst solution.
The question is does Tsipras (secretly) agree with that as well? Has the past 4-5 months been an elaborate charade designed by him to ultimately lead to Euro exit (regardless of what he might say)?Is he very clever, or is he a headless chicken thinking things up on the hoof? No one really knows, and what will happen if he loses the referendum? Will he go? Stay? Call an election? No one has a clue.
It is pretty clear that Europe does not want to deal with him and wants him gone.
A slightly different perspective below.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-01/e...
I actually work in Athens and live just outside, expats have been able to withdraw their daily limit from their home nation account. I'm just waiting to get lynched at the ATM next time i visit! You don't realise how much you miss having cash in your pocket until you aren't able to have cash in your pocket. My Greek account on the other hand is pretty much useless.
As mentioned numerous times already on this thread, a lot of transactions are cash only here, "black money" is what the locals call it and this is just increasing as the scramble for hard cash is increasing. They don't seem to realise this is a major part of the problem.
The work ethic here is poor at best, the Greek people have made a rod for their own back in my view.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-01/e...
I actually work in Athens and live just outside, expats have been able to withdraw their daily limit from their home nation account. I'm just waiting to get lynched at the ATM next time i visit! You don't realise how much you miss having cash in your pocket until you aren't able to have cash in your pocket. My Greek account on the other hand is pretty much useless.
As mentioned numerous times already on this thread, a lot of transactions are cash only here, "black money" is what the locals call it and this is just increasing as the scramble for hard cash is increasing. They don't seem to realise this is a major part of the problem.
The work ethic here is poor at best, the Greek people have made a rod for their own back in my view.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
The IMF certainly deserves some serious questions. They broke pretty much all their own rules on the original bailout (and there were many complaints inside the IMF) as they effectively bailed out private banks in wealthy countries. It is a bit like the UK getting Bangladesh to bail out RBS and Lloyds. Rather than act as an independent institution they have acted as an EU one. When you think where the last and current heads come from this isn't surprising.thainy77 said:
A slightly different perspective below.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-01/e...
I actually work in Athens and live just outside, expats have been able to withdraw their daily limit from their home nation account. I'm just waiting to get lynched at the ATM next time i visit! You don't realise how much you miss having cash in your pocket until you aren't able to have cash in your pocket. My Greek account on the other hand is pretty much useless.
As mentioned numerous times already on this thread, a lot of transactions are cash only here, "black money" is what the locals call it and this is just increasing as the scramble for hard cash is increasing. They don't seem to realise this is a major part of the problem.
The work ethic here is poor at best, the Greek people have made a rod for their own back in my view.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-01/e...
I actually work in Athens and live just outside, expats have been able to withdraw their daily limit from their home nation account. I'm just waiting to get lynched at the ATM next time i visit! You don't realise how much you miss having cash in your pocket until you aren't able to have cash in your pocket. My Greek account on the other hand is pretty much useless.
As mentioned numerous times already on this thread, a lot of transactions are cash only here, "black money" is what the locals call it and this is just increasing as the scramble for hard cash is increasing. They don't seem to realise this is a major part of the problem.
The work ethic here is poor at best, the Greek people have made a rod for their own back in my view.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
The combination of information in these two posts really underlines the fundamental problems in this affair. Clearly the Greeks do have an excess of the Mediteranean "Come day, some day, maybe one day" approach to life and responsibility. The EU has had its own concerns with the seriously overlent EU banks being at risk in this and have used the opportunity extensively under cover provided by the Greek affair to effectively secure the rationalisation of the debt these banks had overlent upon and remove tye threat this had created to the EU banking system. That was always one of the primary concerns of the EU. Looking after itself!The detailed comments from thainy77]A clearly establishes and underlines once again the extent of the Black economy in Greece, that has become an accepted and extensive means of getting what the Greeks want for themselves and operating outside the taxation systems.
Sadly I think that it is apparent that Greece has no intention if chanfpging the Greek approach to enjoying life abd not getting involved in the complexities of actually contributing to the economy of the nation in which you live. I suspect that the EU are confident nw that the consequences of the collapse of Greece are much better controlled now and therefore are no longer desperate to hold Greece up.
Therefore, given the shambles that Tsiparis and Syriza have nade of this matter, in seeking more and more without introducing effective reforms into Greece, heaped upon the previous four years of Greek governments with exactly the same self serving approach, I am inclined to the view that Greece will be allowed to founder by the EU.
The lunatic (For he unquestionably is just that) Hollande will rant abd rave, as only demented Socizlist can do. But I cannot see the EU continuing with this Greek tragedy. If the EU do try to do that then their already seriously damaged credibility will disappear towards zero at high speed!
Guam said:
Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11712...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11712...
Article said:
Europe has suffered a reputational catastrophe in Greece. The eurozone has shown itself unable to manage its basic moral responsibilities.
Sometimes it's helpful for a newspaper to state the bleedin' obvious.However...what reputation? That's a mighty generous assumption for a starting point. From gutter to sewer is more like it.
Mermaid said:
turbobloke said:
Sometimes it's helpful for a newspaper to state the bleedin' obvious.
However...what reputation? That's a mighty generous assumption for a starting point. From gutter to sewer is more like it.
Not in their view, delusional fools in charge.However...what reputation? That's a mighty generous assumption for a starting point. From gutter to sewer is more like it.
And this isn't to ignore the role of Greece, but we're focusing on the EU at the moment.
Mermaid said:
Not in their view, delusional fools in charge.
And lots of them. They can never take a difficult decision because you need 18 Finance Ministers, 18 PM/Chancellors/Presidents, 18 Parliaments, the EU Commission, the ECB, the IMF and even the MEP's to actually agree on something.Because no one (including Merkel who in my view is useless when it comes to actually leading) has grabbed any sort of initiative.
Even if Greece did want to sort it's self out, the EU is only going to come up with short term stop-gaps to kick the problem down the road for 6 months as a compromise solution.
I suspect the air fares alone of all the Eurogroup over the last 5 months would keep Greece going for a few weeks.
turbobloke said:
Mermaid said:
turbobloke said:
Sometimes it's helpful for a newspaper to state the bleedin' obvious.
However...what reputation? That's a mighty generous assumption for a starting point. From gutter to sewer is more like it.
Not in their view, delusional fools in charge.However...what reputation? That's a mighty generous assumption for a starting point. From gutter to sewer is more like it.
And this isn't to ignore the role of Greece, but we're focusing on the EU at the moment.
Currently the reputation of the EU as an effective organisation managing difficult problems, if in fact there ever was that reputation,this is already in tatters. If the EU carry on trying to bail out Greece the little reputation and credibility of the EU as a competent balanced organisation of the EU will evapourate totally!. Shredded very effectively by the the utter nonsense spin that the EU have tried to put on this disaster for both Greece and the EU!
The EU has demonstrated their complete and utter fantasy in their failure to understand either that Greece has no intention of changing their approach to life, or admit the total failure of the EU to admit reality and admit the massive losses now accruing against the solvent states within the Euro!
The EU cannot hide their complete failure. In consequence I suspect, deep and serious concern will develop over which of the many insolvent states within the EU are going to follow the same process? I hope this will prove to be the first and last immediate failure within the EU? This is a deeply serious matter for both Greece and the EU. However the Domino effect and the probable contagion within the remaining insolvent states currently within the EU will follow this nonsense.
There needs to be a major shift within the EU towards properly managed financial controls covering all the EU activities and create effective reporting and auditing systems. If that does not occur, within the EU, then serious pressure will develop within the EU from the solvent states who are beginning to realise that their contributions are holding up member states who otherwise could not remain within the club.
Unless the EU changes its autocratic central approach there will be other solvent states who decide enough is enough. It may well be the UK Referendum falls into that effect. The EU needs to wake up and smell the changes. I am not holding my breath. One way or another major changes will follow this nonsense in Europe.
I don't like his politics, but he is very adept in an interview and he has a certain style and charm that many politicians lack. About 5 mins in for his confirmation that he would resign
varoufakis on bloomberg
confused_buyer said:
Because no one (including Merkel who in my view is useless when it comes to actually leading) has grabbed any sort of initiative.
I was thinking about this the other day. Everyone raves about Merkel, what she's done and how strong and marvellous she is... but what exactly has she ever done? She's created an utter economic mess in half a continent, that's for sure, but other than that, what are her major domestic and international achievements? I honestly can't think of any of real significance. All she seems to do is say yah and nein to things and apply her rubber stamp. She's done almost nothing about the nasty bear nextdoor except sell them cars. It seemed to me she got jolly cross and thought seriously about coming down on them like a ton of bricks after Vladimir shot down the Malaysian Airbus, but didn't do anything in the end because, you know, the gas...
Any thoughts?
Vaud said:
To be fair to her, the German economy is in pretty good shape - long term investment in high end manufacturing, etc.
As it should being locked in a fixed currency union with a bunch of duffers who'll buy everything the Germans make to the detriment of their own firms who can't compete. That said, if you speak to your average German, generally they don't feel that prosperous, so whilst the economy is in good health it's not entirely reflected by the populous IYSWIM.
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