Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
PugwasHDJ80 said:
is there a left or right in this case? i'd struggle to identify them!
In the wider world it will be interesting to see how the Left react what the EU is up to. The EU has, for some reason, always been the darling of various Left leaning organisation throught Europe. Now, it seems, they are intent on chucking out the first truly left wing Government elected in Europe for a long time after just 6 months. Even some in the BBC might be less than impressed about that!
Mermaid said:
So how do we expect currency/stock markets to react Sunday night/Monday? A damp squib or a big swing?
Difficult question given the desperate state of the Greek economy and the less than cordial relations between Syriza and the EU. The IMF presumably have an input but who knows (possibly or cares?!) what the Orange lady Christine Legarde actually is expecting on this nonsense. If the IMF are right and the Greeks does require debt relief (AKA Insolveny) and a further €50 Billion, and 20 years of forbearance from the lenders then I cannot see how Greece can do anything but default. Since the failure by Greece to pay the IMF dues is obviously an act of Insovency discussing further lending and decades of forebearnce by the lenders and lending yet more money to a failing Sovereign state seems absolute madness to me. From the position of the EU it woukd seem absolute madness (with other peoples money) is preferable to a reality check.
On that basis I cannot see how the markets can do anything other than dither and dive. But I am no expert on either the currency or stock markets.
One way or other, they'll have their austerity. That's a given. No matter what, that's the real future for the ordinary people. Their choice really is between a kicking forever or (maybe, depending on their survival abilities) a kicking for a shorter time.
From a Greek perspective, I'd default and run a mile from the clutches of the angered ones with the perceived power.
And I'd speculate that those with the perceived power would do well to open an ear to the populace of the other core countries not currently doing quite so well right now.
Can't help but think that there's a potential groundswell of anti-EU feeling just around the corner. And that's before any dominoes start to sway, contagion-wise.
It'll make CMD's job in selling a Yes vote all the more enjoyable to watch.
From a Greek perspective, I'd default and run a mile from the clutches of the angered ones with the perceived power.
And I'd speculate that those with the perceived power would do well to open an ear to the populace of the other core countries not currently doing quite so well right now.
Can't help but think that there's a potential groundswell of anti-EU feeling just around the corner. And that's before any dominoes start to sway, contagion-wise.
It'll make CMD's job in selling a Yes vote all the more enjoyable to watch.
Steffan said:
Mermaid said:
So how do we expect currency/stock markets to react Sunday night/Monday? A damp squib or a big swing?
Difficult question given the desperate state of the Greek economy and the less than cordial relations between Syriza and the EU. The IMF presumably have an input but who knows (possibly or cares?!) what the Orange lady Christine Legarde actually is expecting on this nonsense. If the IMF are right and the Greeks does require debt relief (AKA Insolveny) and a further €50 Billion, and 20 years of forbearance from the lenders then I cannot see how Greece can do anything but default. Since the failure by Greece to pay the IMF dues is obviously an act of Insovency discussing further lending and decades of forebearnce by the lenders and lending yet more money to a failing Sovereign state seems absolute madness to me. From the position of the EU it woukd seem absolute madness (with other peoples money) is preferable to a reality check.
On that basis I cannot see how the markets can do anything other than dither and dive. But I am no expert on either the currency or stock markets.
Maybe that is hyperbole, maybe not....The question is how much do we value stability in that part of the med?
tumble dryer said:
Can't help but think that there's a potential groundswell of anti-EU feeling just around the corner. And that's before any dominoes start to sway, contagion-wise.
It'll make CMD's job in selling a Yes vote all the more enjoyable to watch.
I can't see a potential cause for positivity for the 2017 pro EU campaign in any way this develops. It'll make CMD's job in selling a Yes vote all the more enjoyable to watch.
Except we of course are talking biased BBC hand picked debate audiences and minority media powers sheep herding the masses.
craig7l said:
tumble dryer said:
Can't help but think that there's a potential groundswell of anti-EU feeling just around the corner. And that's before any dominoes start to sway, contagion-wise.
It'll make CMD's job in selling a Yes vote all the more enjoyable to watch.
I can't see a potential cause for positivity for the 2017 pro EU campaign in any way this develops. It'll make CMD's job in selling a Yes vote all the more enjoyable to watch.
Except we of course are talking biased BBC hand picked debate audiences and minority media powers sheep herding the masses.
It does seem to me that the point has been reached in this thread where suggesting that Greece can actually continue within the Euro and EU is simply not credible, any longer? Greece has already failed to repay Billions of Euros due to the IMF. Therefore Greece has defaulted upon their borrowing requirements. The IMF are seriously suggesting that Greece will require lending of another €50 Billion Euros in order to continue within the EU on top of the €400 Billion Euros already thrown into the pot, by the lenders.
Who in their right mind coud seriously suggest the Greek economy can possibly recover in such circumstances? Over the last five years the Greek economic output has nosedived steadily. With inexperienced Socialist dreamers in government in Greece, dreaming nonsence and offerring totally unaffordable economic policies, there can be no hope of recovery for Greece.
The credibility of the EU seems to be hanging on a very thin thread in this nonsense. As the Economist says in this current article the whole future of the EU will be seriously changed as a resultif ths over stretching attempt by the EU.
See: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21656662-wha...
Credibility as competant economic and financial managers is a requirement in modern economis and politics. The EU have made basic, foolish mistakes and this Greek nonsence is just one example of this. Unless the EU wise up and face reality with this nonsense they will find their credibility has totally evaporated. As I have said before, time for a sharp exit for Greece!
Who in their right mind coud seriously suggest the Greek economy can possibly recover in such circumstances? Over the last five years the Greek economic output has nosedived steadily. With inexperienced Socialist dreamers in government in Greece, dreaming nonsence and offerring totally unaffordable economic policies, there can be no hope of recovery for Greece.
The credibility of the EU seems to be hanging on a very thin thread in this nonsense. As the Economist says in this current article the whole future of the EU will be seriously changed as a resultif ths over stretching attempt by the EU.
See: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21656662-wha...
Credibility as competant economic and financial managers is a requirement in modern economis and politics. The EU have made basic, foolish mistakes and this Greek nonsence is just one example of this. Unless the EU wise up and face reality with this nonsense they will find their credibility has totally evaporated. As I have said before, time for a sharp exit for Greece!
Edited by Steffan on Friday 3rd July 22:55
johnfm said:
So, who is next?
Italy?
Italy still have a solid industrial base, good brand appeal, tourism and some world class talent, Italians are seriously bright and the northern part has Germanic work ethic. Italy?
Portugal would get my vote as the next in line. However actually I really think Greece is a proper rogue state in so many more ways than the other EZ members.
The real question for this thread, is can the Euro currency survive a default of one of its members.
Right now the US looks strong and everyone else weak. Living in Canada I have seen the huge impact of the world economy..commodity prices, flight to USD which has dropped our currency from party to 80 cents very quickly. We have fallen against the USD even faster than the Euro ( slightly) which is pretty impressive given the Euro's plunge.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Ireland in trouble. Not because it's a basket case in the Greek sense but because it's economy is out of step with much of the rest of the EU and more aligned with ours and that of the US. It was already over-heating before 2008 and could do this again. Perhaps worse would be if Ireland got into difficulties while the core EZ was doing better and had raised interest rates. They would then be in an ERM plus scenario with a stagnant economy with rising interest rates and an appreciating currency hampering exports. An EZ wide spurt of growth perhaps isn't a very immediate concern but it could happen.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I fear you are correct. the problem for the Greek people, is that like the multi generational `can work, but don't want to work' benefits claimants we have here, they have been divorced from operatinganything like a modern sound national economy for so long (at least 25 years from what I have seen, but it could back much further), they don't even realize how disastrous what they have been doing, and are doing now is.
They might possibly think that what `they' have been doing is normal, without even bothering to compare their economy and practises with other more successful economies (as long as the EU benefits kept rolling in.
They are now in a similar position to jobless benefits claimants who have learned their benefits are to be cut off,
No Job, No skills, no inclination to work, or change their ways, and now no more free cash fluttering down from above.
Whether they stay in the EU / EZ or not, it makes no difference, they have a harsh awakening awaiting them, and the only ones who can get themselves out of their dire position are themselves.
They have had all the cash they are going to get, to bring changtheir country
You have to feel sorry for the needy and elderly pensioners in Greece. But little sympathy for the pensioners in their mid-50s. I feel more sorry for the other Europeans of that age who are still working to pay for them..
we've heard a lot from the Greek government about what they want. Now let's her about what they can give . If it's nothing, then time to cut Europes losses . You are the weakest link - goodbye ..
we've heard a lot from the Greek government about what they want. Now let's her about what they can give . If it's nothing, then time to cut Europes losses . You are the weakest link - goodbye ..
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