Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
towser said:
Interesting and to be honest, at times sad, article on the Greek crisis.
https://www.byline.com/column/11/article/135
"Greece feels betrayed. The people "in the know" assured us that if we did as they instructed, the situation will improve. It didn't. It got worse. And then worse again. We agreed to buy back our own debt at a premium and, by doing so, gave time to large financial interests to disentangle themselves from Greece, to put buffers against contagion. Now they don't care. Greece was played. We were convinced to get in a lifeboat full of holes and now Europe wants to set us adrift."
The Greeks betrayed themselves, by having, and maintaining a corrupt, backward, non productive, intransigent economy (from what I have seen, for at least 25 years, possibly longer) and then failing to use the cash given them by the EU, to drag their basket case economy into the 21st century.https://www.byline.com/column/11/article/135
"Greece feels betrayed. The people "in the know" assured us that if we did as they instructed, the situation will improve. It didn't. It got worse. And then worse again. We agreed to buy back our own debt at a premium and, by doing so, gave time to large financial interests to disentangle themselves from Greece, to put buffers against contagion. Now they don't care. Greece was played. We were convinced to get in a lifeboat full of holes and now Europe wants to set us adrift."
No doubt their position has been made worse by the way EU zealots provided the cash, but allowed Greece to continue with its disastrous practices for so long without checks, and balances (but that has been the story of the EU from the beginning, How many audits of EU finances have been carried out / completed to date???)
The only way for Greece now is to undergo massive change, and `work' themselves out of the position they are in, but it seems they are not really interested in that option.
Axionknight said:
gruffalo said:
When are the results due?
First results will be in around 9pm allegedly, but this is the Greek work ethic we are talking about here, so they probably mean 9pm on Thursday.http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/05/greek...
paulrockliffe said:
Greece's primary budget surplus is calculated after adjusting for the economic cycle. Ie its nothing like a surplus.
Indeed as as per that Forbes article it doesnt account for interest repayments on debt .... Love Economic statistics LOOK over here...... don't for god's sake look over there.
Gargamel said:
Indeed as as per that Forbes article it doesnt account for interest repayments on debt .... Love Economic statistics
LOOK over here...... don't for god's sake look over there.
But that's the point - the debt is unsustainable. If Greece had declared bankruptcy at the start there would have been enough money sloshing around in Greece to power through - make cuts, grumble a bit, and by now they would possibly have access to international money markets again. LOOK over here...... don't for god's sake look over there.
By trying to stay in for so long they've made it a lot harder for themselves. There's probably not enough money left in the country (not under the beds, anyway) right now for a viable economy.
davepoth said:
Gargamel said:
Indeed as as per that Forbes article it doesnt account for interest repayments on debt .... Love Economic statistics
LOOK over here...... don't for god's sake look over there.
But that's the point - the debt is unsustainable. If Greece had declared bankruptcy at the start there would have been enough money sloshing around in Greece to power through - make cuts, grumble a bit, and by now they would possibly have access to international money markets again. LOOK over here...... don't for god's sake look over there.
By trying to stay in for so long they've made it a lot harder for themselves. There's probably not enough money left in the country (not under the beds, anyway) right now for a viable economy.
is that the sound of dust covers being taken off printing presses?davepoth said:
But that's the point - the debt is unsustainable. If Greece had declared bankruptcy at the start there would have been enough money sloshing around in Greece to power through - make cuts, grumble a bit, and by now they would possibly have access to international money markets again.
By trying to stay in for so long they've made it a lot harder for themselves. There's probably not enough money left in the country (not under the beds, anyway) right now for a viable economy.
Bankrupt or not the debt would still prevail and until it was paid down/recommended to be paid ability to borrow in the markets would be at eye wateringly high rates. By trying to stay in for so long they've made it a lot harder for themselves. There's probably not enough money left in the country (not under the beds, anyway) right now for a viable economy.
Debt for equity or asset swap is in order. Given them an island or two or more to pay it down. Easy solution - highly challenging to deliver but why make the population suffer for 50-80-100years? Or give up some assets.
davepoth said:
I should think that the man who pours the ink in will be stood ready with his funnel. It'll be overprinted Euro notes for the first few weeks though.
If they had enough euro notes to overprint they wouldn't be in the situation they are, anyway, wouldn't overprinting euro notes be like turning £50 notes into tenners?Welshbeef said:
Bankrupt or not the debt would still prevail and until it was paid down/recommended to be paid ability to borrow in the markets would be at eye wateringly high rates.
Debt for equity or asset swap is in order. Given them an island or two or more to pay it down. Easy solution - highly challenging to deliver but why make the population suffer for 50-80-100years? Or give up some assets.
This is what you get when you google "bankruptcy"Debt for equity or asset swap is in order. Given them an island or two or more to pay it down. Easy solution - highly challenging to deliver but why make the population suffer for 50-80-100years? Or give up some assets.
[quote = Google]Bankruptcy is a legal status of a person or other entity that cannot repay the debts it owes to creditors. In most jurisdictions, bankruptcy is imposed by a court order, often initiated by the debtor.
davepoth said:
The whole point of bankruptcy is that they get to not pay their debts any more.
For an individual. Also they have pun italics rates for at least ten years and cannot ever be a company director again.
Look at Argentina for a real life country example and tell me that's a good outcome. It's diabolical the people suffering and nearly two decades on they are still in the utter more with frankly no hope for a very very long time to come.
If I were Greek or Argentinian I'd be emigrating permanently to anywhere else which isn't screwed for at least my entire lifetime.
Welshbeef said:
davepoth said:
The whole point of bankruptcy is that they get to not pay their debts any more.
For an individual. Also they have pun italics rates for at least ten years and cannot ever be a company director again.
Look at Argentina for a real life country example and tell me that's a good outcome. It's diabolical the people suffering and nearly two decades on they are still in the utter more with frankly no hope for a very very long time to come.
If I were Greek or Argentinian I'd be emigrating permanently to anywhere else which isn't screwed for at least my entire lifetime.
Argentina has been in the mire ever since because it's ruled by a melting faced lunatic who thinks her country's salvation lies in a few small islands rather than in the vast and formerly wealthy country she's mismanaged into the ground.
davepoth said:
Argentina has been in the mire ever since because it's ruled by a melting faced lunatic who thinks her country's salvation lies in a few small islands rather than in the vast and formerly wealthy country she's mismanaged into the ground.
They would be better off if we colonized Argentina.No matter if Greece defaults or not; no matter if they have an Oxi or Nei, Greece is and will be isolated from capital markets for a very long time. They have destroyed all public confidence since 2009 and before, especially since the Greek society won't recognize that they are the only ones alone who are responsible to fix this situation.
Working for specialist Insolvency practioners taught me a great deal about the darker side of human nature. Perhaps the most interesting case was a businessman (now deceased and therefore not privelaged) who was operating six different personalities illegally compete with bent passports, driving licences (courtesy of a supplier now defunct) and untangling that wrangled mess was a real education in itself. Singularly educational. He went jail for quite some time!
This business has got very complicated. To my mind any suggestion that Greece can continue within the EU/Euro is very difficult to believe and almost impossible to support. Doubtless the IMF are correct in that Greece needs at least another 50 billion € on top of the money already burnt by lending to Greece. And 20 years of debt relief. Trying to contain that nonsense within a stable currency just seems preposterous to me. However who knows with the EU? Further write offs of Greek debt seem to me to be inevitable. How in these circumstances can continuance be seriously contemplated.
We are all awaiting the results of the Referendum. However I for one, cannot really understand the questions put to the Greek voters in that Referendum. Equally I cannot see the relevance of the Referendum to the final outcome of this mess. for these reasons:
If Syriza achieve a majority No vote then I would expect the EU to give up on Greece.
If the referendum achieves a majority Yes vote then I cannot see the EU again proffering the terms offered to Greece immediately prior to defauly by Greece. Which in any event did not include the major caveat that Greece needs at least another 50 Billion according to the IMF. And twenty years forbearance and massive debt relief. It just cannot work can it?
To my mind therefore the real question in this is not what does Greece want because without being callous, beggars can never be choosers? The real question is what credible package could the EU provide that might actually assist Greece to return to solvency and growth.
Again to my mind there can be no credible package in these circumstances given that:
A) Greece has already received a massive write down of debts in the original rescue by the EU five years ago.
B) Five long years of constant subsidy from the EU have left Greece worse off than Greece was at the beginning.
C) Yet more money (50 Billion) is essential for Greece to continue to survive and there is no evidence of any improvement.
The credibility gap is simply widening steadily of a daily basis. Forj all those reaons, if the EU do decide to support Greece and continue the bail out and therefore add to the losses, then I think further credibility damage to the reputation of the EU will be immediate, deeply serious and strike at the fundamental trust that the EU cannot afford to lose.
On the subject of the Referenum itself, on balance, despite the dire warnings of Syriza and the leading Greek politicians, I think a shaded win by the Yes supporters is probable. Given the chilling scenes in Greece, the huge queues at the banks, the sobbing pensioners and the lack of food and money in the Greek population the voters will have been chilled to the bone by these awful sights. Most Greek voters will have been chilled to their very core. Awful and seriously distressing to witness.
Therefore I justI cannot see how this can go on in this way any longer. I do however, wonder, just what the EU will finally decide?
This business has got very complicated. To my mind any suggestion that Greece can continue within the EU/Euro is very difficult to believe and almost impossible to support. Doubtless the IMF are correct in that Greece needs at least another 50 billion € on top of the money already burnt by lending to Greece. And 20 years of debt relief. Trying to contain that nonsense within a stable currency just seems preposterous to me. However who knows with the EU? Further write offs of Greek debt seem to me to be inevitable. How in these circumstances can continuance be seriously contemplated.
We are all awaiting the results of the Referendum. However I for one, cannot really understand the questions put to the Greek voters in that Referendum. Equally I cannot see the relevance of the Referendum to the final outcome of this mess. for these reasons:
If Syriza achieve a majority No vote then I would expect the EU to give up on Greece.
If the referendum achieves a majority Yes vote then I cannot see the EU again proffering the terms offered to Greece immediately prior to defauly by Greece. Which in any event did not include the major caveat that Greece needs at least another 50 Billion according to the IMF. And twenty years forbearance and massive debt relief. It just cannot work can it?
To my mind therefore the real question in this is not what does Greece want because without being callous, beggars can never be choosers? The real question is what credible package could the EU provide that might actually assist Greece to return to solvency and growth.
Again to my mind there can be no credible package in these circumstances given that:
A) Greece has already received a massive write down of debts in the original rescue by the EU five years ago.
B) Five long years of constant subsidy from the EU have left Greece worse off than Greece was at the beginning.
C) Yet more money (50 Billion) is essential for Greece to continue to survive and there is no evidence of any improvement.
The credibility gap is simply widening steadily of a daily basis. Forj all those reaons, if the EU do decide to support Greece and continue the bail out and therefore add to the losses, then I think further credibility damage to the reputation of the EU will be immediate, deeply serious and strike at the fundamental trust that the EU cannot afford to lose.
On the subject of the Referenum itself, on balance, despite the dire warnings of Syriza and the leading Greek politicians, I think a shaded win by the Yes supporters is probable. Given the chilling scenes in Greece, the huge queues at the banks, the sobbing pensioners and the lack of food and money in the Greek population the voters will have been chilled to the bone by these awful sights. Most Greek voters will have been chilled to their very core. Awful and seriously distressing to witness.
Therefore I justI cannot see how this can go on in this way any longer. I do however, wonder, just what the EU will finally decide?
Steffan said:
..
Therefore I justI cannot see how this can go on in this way any longer. I do however, wonder, just what the EU will finally decide?
Rhyme/reason/logic has nothing to do with this - it is not a simple financial or only a financial issue - numbers on a balance sheet. This is about politics and Greece will remain if it suits the EU, they are assessing what they lose in direct money terms by what they gain elsewhere.Therefore I justI cannot see how this can go on in this way any longer. I do however, wonder, just what the EU will finally decide?
Steffan you have been right that this is unsustainable on any logical basis, but this is the unaccountable EU we are talking about.
Mermaid said:
Steffan said:
..
Therefore I justI cannot see how this can go on in this way any longer. I do however, wonder, just what the EU will finally decide?
Rhyme/reason/logic has nothing to do with this - it is not a simple financial or only a financial issue - numbers on a balance sheet. This is about politics and Greece will remain if it suits the EU, they are assessing what they lose in direct money terms by what they gain elsewhere.Therefore I justI cannot see how this can go on in this way any longer. I do however, wonder, just what the EU will finally decide?
Steffan you have been right that this is unsustainable on any logical basis, but this is the unaccountable EU we are talking about.
Primarily because in dire straits like these, there are none. Decades of recovery and gradually improving the Grrek economy over a significant period, providing all the necessary fundamental economic changes are undertaken by Greece, if in fact, there are any ways to resolve the weakness if the Greek economy and the only way to restore Greece to solvency. Which I personally seriously doubt.
The "Qucikly fixes" that the EU has been offering to Greece and trying for more than five years as "the Solution" never stood even the remotest chance of success. Being this wrong consistently has already raised serious doubts throughout the Western World that the EU actually capable of resolving this roble. Quite simply, if they were, they would have resolved ths years ago.
Recognising that some events are beyond control is an essential part of effective political understanding. The EU leaders and Mario Draghi and co look like soft touch fools who could not recognise the total failure of this policy. Which, from the start, is precisely what they have been in this nonsense.
Damage limitation and credibility rebuilding is the future for the EU. Greece is bust. Unless the EU continues the hopless task in which case then : Who knows?!
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