Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
OzzyR1 said:
Don't give up the day job!!
Go here.http://www.betmunky.co.uk/book-percentage-converti...
3/2 ... 40%
Condi said:
jsf said:
davepoth said:
jsf said:
AJS- said:
God I do hope the end is nigh and the wheels are finallyl falling off this miserable, destructive and downright dangerous project of European Union.
Not a chance of that. It will take a war to kill off the EU political project.The big mistake in all this has always been going beyond a trade agreement. As soon as you get political egos building thiefdoms you get chaos.
But yes, once you get one country leave it encourages all the others. Interestingly this was said by some Euro MP recently
'The euro is not irreversible just by saying it, just by writing it in a contract," one says. "The euro is irreversible only if politicians do everything to make it irreversible and to guarantee that national parliaments live up to their responsibilities.
"Of course a country can leave if it wants to leave. The national sovereignty is still there – we are not a political union.'
Which is an change of rhetoric from what things were 12 months ago. The reality of the EU project, along with a rise in nationalism and EU sceptic parties are starting to bite I think.
As AJS remarks the EU as it is has serious issues which are being cheerfully ignored by the EU politicians and Bureacrats. He is also on the button with his comments on the dangers such largesse in politics is indeed dangerous.
As Davepoth says we must all be careful what we wish for and this is very true f Greece. Who appears to want Nirvaah combined with early retirement on huge pensions. Never going to happen is is?
Then Condi comes in with a seres of comments on the change of rhetoric and attitudes within the EU electorate over the last few years.
The EU seems to be making a real pigs ear of this Greek business. This shoud never have been allowed to happen at all, and effective and decisive action should have nipped the consequences to the EU years ago. Now the failure of the EU to deal with this matter effectively has become visible to huge numbers of voters in the EU. Equally the failures of the EU have become very visible indeed to the markets. Major changes to the EU will follow this nonsense. Rightly so.
It woukd seem that the Greek electorate are favouring not accepting the last offer from the EU. Could well be the EU take them up on that refusal. Greece is simply not capable of trading within a currency heavily dominated by Germany. Time for the EU to wise up, at last!
Edited by Steffan on Sunday 5th July 20:45
Luke Warm said:
3/2 odds. Let's say you put £100 down on that and you won you'd get your stake back plus £150.
If the odds were 2/5 and again you put £100 down and won you'd get your stake back plus £40.
Male sense?
Welshbeef said:
3/2 odds.
Let's say you put £100 down on that and you won you'd get your stake back plus £150.
If the odds were 2/5 and again you put £100 down and won you'd get your stake back plus £40.
Male sense?
That makes sense.Let's say you put £100 down on that and you won you'd get your stake back plus £150.
If the odds were 2/5 and again you put £100 down and won you'd get your stake back plus £40.
Male sense?
What does not make sense is that 6/4 implies a 67% probability of 'no' winning.
The link I posted explains how it works.
Lovely snippet from the Guardian's live coverage:
Guardian said:
Daniel Howden has spoken to a ‘Yes’ voter. Yannis Raptodimos, 29, who lives in Dervenohoria, central Greece, and works in a local munitions factory, warns of catastrophe if the drachma is reintroduced.
"Those who have money in the bank will vote Yes. Those with loans have been told that if they vote No they won’t have to repay them. This is not right. If you don’t repay loans the banks will fold. With the Drachma we’ll have catastrophe."
You've made your bed, now lie in it."Those who have money in the bank will vote Yes. Those with loans have been told that if they vote No they won’t have to repay them. This is not right. If you don’t repay loans the banks will fold. With the Drachma we’ll have catastrophe."
Luke Warm said:
No 6/4 is 40% implied probability. I got it wrong and have corrected my post.
How did you arrive at 67%?
Maths. invert the odds to make fractions - 5/1 to 1/5 = 20%. Do the same for 6/4 - 4/6 or 67%.How did you arrive at 67%?
Bookmaking mathematics are different as it turns out, and I've not spent much time in bookies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematics_of_bookm...
The formula is b/(a+b) to work back to proper mathematical probabilities from bookmaking probabilities. So as you say, 6/4 odds would be 4/(6+4), or 4/10, or 40%.
Twilkes said:
10/1 is a 1 in 10 chance, or 1/10th = 0.1 = 10%
6/4 is a 4 in 6 chance, or 4/6ths = 0.6666666 = 67%
That isn't how it works.6/4 is a 4 in 6 chance, or 4/6ths = 0.6666666 = 67%
http://www.betmunky.co.uk/book-percentage-converti...
Scroll down the page about half way.
3/2 (6/4) = 40%
1/2 = 66.67%
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