Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
glazbagun said:
Even if they have a printing press it would surely be madness to unilaterally start printing Euro's. Wouldn't that be like Clydeesdale Bank turning on the taps of the UK money supply?
It's a bit more complicated for Greece - but for the Clydesdale they have to have a Pound deposited in the BoE for every Pound they issue as a note. Yes, it would be madness to start printing Euros, but this entire situation is ludicrous anyway.davepoth said:
He's lying; they print the 10 Euro note in Greece. But they could quite easily print as many of those as they like. They'd likely need to change the serials on them but it's a pretty excellent blackmail tactic.
That's easier then for the €100 note as all they need to do is add a nought..! Just seen pictures on the news of celebrations of thousands of Greeks circle dancing.....it's midnight....... I presume they don't have work in the morning....?
Edited by craig7l on Sunday 5th July 22:11
I, for one, have rather mixed feelings on the whole thing.
On the one hand, I don't have a great deal of sympathy for the Greek people, as they consistently voted in the politicians who got them into this f
ked up situation.
On the other hand, however, there is a chance that a default by Greece may bring about the collapse of the Euro, and that surely has to be good news for almost everyone except the Germans?
It seems that the Greeks are going to be paying a very, very high price for being the ultimately very necessary sacrificial lamb.
On the one hand, I don't have a great deal of sympathy for the Greek people, as they consistently voted in the politicians who got them into this f
ked up situation.On the other hand, however, there is a chance that a default by Greece may bring about the collapse of the Euro, and that surely has to be good news for almost everyone except the Germans?
It seems that the Greeks are going to be paying a very, very high price for being the ultimately very necessary sacrificial lamb.
Steffan said:
Two posts on here which rang a bell with me. Mermaid is quite right on the extent of the huge under declaration of taxes within Greece. Craig 71 and Axionknight offer comments on the madness if the current EU position and the dangers that this must bring to the EU.
On the question of whether Greece could make a fist of leaving the EU and actually fare better than expected, then this, does seem unlikely to me. If they did then the EU would be completely superfluous. Huge number of questions need to be asked and answered now. I do hope the EU wakes up and smells the burning. This sorry mess has gone on far too long and cost far, far too much. And more losses are going to accrue to the EU in getting out of this affair. It's going to be a very interesting few weeks in the rest of July! One we go!!
Indeed! If you are bankrupt, it doesn't really matter which currency you use, you are still bankrupt. And for the lenders, still out of pocket.On the question of whether Greece could make a fist of leaving the EU and actually fare better than expected, then this, does seem unlikely to me. If they did then the EU would be completely superfluous. Huge number of questions need to be asked and answered now. I do hope the EU wakes up and smells the burning. This sorry mess has gone on far too long and cost far, far too much. And more losses are going to accrue to the EU in getting out of this affair. It's going to be a very interesting few weeks in the rest of July! One we go!!
AreOut said:
Plan B - revert to forgery
I do realise you are making the point in dry humour. But I have thought for some time that if the wheel does come off on Greece remaining within the Euro there must be real possibility that the Greek presses will roll without authorisation from the ECB. I do hope this does not come to be. But I am very doubtful that any new solution will be found for Greece . Difficult times ahead for both the EU and Greece. I am at a loss to understand how Greece can seriously expect this to go on. But they clearly do and therefore is up to the EU to disavow Greece of that notion. I think it's the perfect way to bat one back over the net to the troika, all of whom have backed themselves into the corner they thought they backed Greece into
That's a really good position Greece are in right now, though people are suffering the way this plays out is that the EU twist the knife or they start stitching the wounds
That's a really good position Greece are in right now, though people are suffering the way this plays out is that the EU twist the knife or they start stitching the wounds
Axionknight said:
Anyone think this'll lead to a Grexit?
I don't know.On the surface, an exit seems unstoppable.
However, we must not underestimate the desire of Merkle, Hollande and some others to strive for "ever closer union".
Also, the Greek PM has said that they won't leave the Eurozone.
My personal feeling is that if Greece returned to the Drachma, then they would quickly rebuild their economy.
My wife is Spanish. 30-something years ago I had an argument with my (slightly socialist) sister in law(SIL). At that time Spaniards had few material possessions, but they had a fantastic quality of life. A beer cost 7p. A meal at the fiesta cost £3.60 for 6 people. That included a bottle of very drinkable wine!
I told my SIL that if Spain joined the EEC, that they would swap their daily visits to the bars/restaurants for nice shiny BMWs.
Nowadays, meals and drinks are almost as expensive in Spain as they are here. My SIL can no longer afford to go out, and meet her neighbours, everyday.
I wonder how the Eurogods will play this.
It's for serious stakes when you consider the periphery, and that's still before a financial wobble anywhere.
Who'll take control, and what's their strategy likely to be...?
The people of Greece will go through their pain (either way) but I suspect they know this. They'll come through though, to whatever level they deserve.
It's for serious stakes when you consider the periphery, and that's still before a financial wobble anywhere.
Who'll take control, and what's their strategy likely to be...?
The people of Greece will go through their pain (either way) but I suspect they know this. They'll come through though, to whatever level they deserve.
Recent statement from the European Parliament prrsident
"...Ordinary citizens, pensioners, sick people or children in the kindergarten should not pay a price for the dramatic situation in which the country and the government brought the country now. Therefore a humanitarian programme is needed immediately and I hope that the Greek government will make in the next coming hours meaningful and constructive proposals allowing that it is meaningful and possible te renegotiate. If not, we are entering a very difficult and even dramatic time."
Humanitarian aid for Greece??
"...Ordinary citizens, pensioners, sick people or children in the kindergarten should not pay a price for the dramatic situation in which the country and the government brought the country now. Therefore a humanitarian programme is needed immediately and I hope that the Greek government will make in the next coming hours meaningful and constructive proposals allowing that it is meaningful and possible te renegotiate. If not, we are entering a very difficult and even dramatic time."
Humanitarian aid for Greece??
Steffan said:
AreOut said:
Plan B - revert to forgery
I do realise you are making the point in dry humour. But I have thought for some time that if the wheel does come off on Greece remaining within the Euro there must be real possibility that the Greek presses will roll without authorisation from the ECB. I do hope this does not come to be. But I am very doubtful that any new solution will be found for Greece . Difficult times ahead for both the EU and Greece. I am at a loss to understand how Greece can seriously expect this to go on. But they clearly do and therefore is up to the EU to disavow Greece of that notion. williamp said:
Recent statement from the European Parliament prrsident
"...Ordinary citizens, pensioners, sick people or children in the kindergarten should not pay a price for the dramatic situation in which the country and the government brought the country now. Therefore a humanitarian programme is needed immediately and I hope that the Greek government will make in the next coming hours meaningful and constructive proposals allowing that it is meaningful and possible te renegotiate. If not, we are entering a very difficult and even dramatic time."
Humanitarian aid for Greece??
Regrettably that is likely to be where Greece ends up. In five very expensive years of subsidised recovery,Greece has got steadily, more and more insolvent. That being the case, it is very difficult to predict the likely outcome. I cannot see how this can be made to work. But the EU can throw yet more taxpayers money in the bonfire ish they choose to do so. That is what has kept this going."...Ordinary citizens, pensioners, sick people or children in the kindergarten should not pay a price for the dramatic situation in which the country and the government brought the country now. Therefore a humanitarian programme is needed immediately and I hope that the Greek government will make in the next coming hours meaningful and constructive proposals allowing that it is meaningful and possible te renegotiate. If not, we are entering a very difficult and even dramatic time."
Humanitarian aid for Greece??
williamp said:
Recent statement from the European Parliament prrsident
"...Ordinary citizens, pensioners, sick people or children in the kindergarten should not pay a price for the dramatic situation in which the country and the government brought the country now. Therefore a humanitarian programme is needed immediately and I hope that the Greek government will make in the next coming hours meaningful and constructive proposals allowing that it is meaningful and possible te renegotiate. If not, we are entering a very difficult and even dramatic time."
Humanitarian aid for Greece??
Herr Schultz I assume? He had no compunction in trying to overturn a democratically elected government. In short, he is the absolute caricature of the worst kind of Germany, a proper charmless humourless kraut and a bad egg. "...Ordinary citizens, pensioners, sick people or children in the kindergarten should not pay a price for the dramatic situation in which the country and the government brought the country now. Therefore a humanitarian programme is needed immediately and I hope that the Greek government will make in the next coming hours meaningful and constructive proposals allowing that it is meaningful and possible te renegotiate. If not, we are entering a very difficult and even dramatic time."
Humanitarian aid for Greece??
Surely the response from Merkel et all has to be that they will offer their full support to the return of the Drachma by buying long term bonds as soon as they are issued. Negotiations on existing euro debt will continue with the results being reflected in Greece's credit rating. If they ever get their st together and experience nationwide amnesia they can apply for re-entry...
I've never understood the reluctance to countenance exit from the Euro. How else can the currency protect itself from being fundamentally undermined by situations like this?
t together and experience nationwide amnesia they can apply for re-entry...I've never understood the reluctance to countenance exit from the Euro. How else can the currency protect itself from being fundamentally undermined by situations like this?
New odds of Grexit:
Oxford Economics Ltd. - 85%
Teneo Intelligence - 75%
Evercore ISI - 67%
JP Morgan - >50%
Barclays - >50%
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-05/...
Oxford Economics Ltd. - 85%
Teneo Intelligence - 75%
Evercore ISI - 67%
JP Morgan - >50%
Barclays - >50%
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-05/...
Barclays said:
A “no” vote means (Economic Monetary Union) EMU exit, most likely ... We argue that an EMU exit would become the more likely scenario, even if Greece remaining in the euro area cannot be ruled out. Agreeing on a programme with the current Greek government would be extremely difficult for EA leaders, given the Greek rejection of the last deal offered. EA leaders accepting all Greek proposals would be a difficult sell at home, especially at the Bundestag or in Spain ahead of the general elections.
How long Greece can stay in the euro without a financial assistance programme will depend on the ECB’s willingness to continue to provide liquidity to its banking sector and the consequence of a default on the bonds held by the ECB in its SMP portfolio on 20 July.
If there is no agreement on a programme, the ECB will shut down ELA no later than 20 July. Banks will then not only be illiquid but would then turn insolvent. As a result, the lack of financing would trigger a collapse of the Greek economy. This situation could not last more than a few days, beyond which the Greek government would have to decide to take back the control over the central bank of Greece and force it to provide liquidity support to Greek banks, therefore printing de facto another currency. This would clearly be a violation of the Treaty and would certainly put Greece outside the monetary union.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/greek-referendum-gre...How long Greece can stay in the euro without a financial assistance programme will depend on the ECB’s willingness to continue to provide liquidity to its banking sector and the consequence of a default on the bonds held by the ECB in its SMP portfolio on 20 July.
If there is no agreement on a programme, the ECB will shut down ELA no later than 20 July. Banks will then not only be illiquid but would then turn insolvent. As a result, the lack of financing would trigger a collapse of the Greek economy. This situation could not last more than a few days, beyond which the Greek government would have to decide to take back the control over the central bank of Greece and force it to provide liquidity support to Greek banks, therefore printing de facto another currency. This would clearly be a violation of the Treaty and would certainly put Greece outside the monetary union.
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