Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Mermaid said:
Greeks say No, and the markets are almost unchanged from the Friday close.
If they had said Yes?
If they had said yes i think it would be much the same due to a complete lack of confidence that Greece will actually do what they say they will when it comes to controlling public spending or collecting tax.If they had said Yes?
Mermaid said:
arguti said:
Stig said:
Back to 1.407 this morning. Markets have this all factored in methinks?
Or is the Swiss National Bank buying all the euros it can....just a thought! I have been trying to see a way forward for the EU in this mess (one entirely of their own making!). Greece being forced out of the Euro now must be an anathema to the EU. On a practical note the Greek debts being written off would force the EU to admit ther losses and therefore to admit that the solvent Euro states will be paying all of this loss. Something the EU are desperate to avoid.
I therefore posed the question to myself of how the EU might avoid that calamity? I began to wonder if the EU could still use their time honoured fudge formula and push the problem forward? Just for a change. That sent me thinking and it occurred to me that the EU might lend Greece sufficient new money to enable Greece to make the necessary payments to the IMF and the EU to turn the original rescue package taps back on again and therefore to remove the threat of default. The EU can then claim that Greece has agreed to repay this additional loan in full. Trebles all round!!
Naturally that repayment will never actually take place because Greece is insolvent and will remain insolvent. But the EU can claim that this is a secure (?!£€?!) loan which means this nonsense solution can continue. Buys the EU leaders more time, buys Greece more time, costs the EU taxpayers a fortune but we know from years of experience on ths thread, that such costs are not the concern of the EU. None of the players in this are looking for a real solution. Just for there to be an opportunity for the losses and subsidy to continue?
Precisely the same deficiencies will remain within the Greek economy but plenty of bulls
t nonsense about new forms of taxation reforms etc (which will never actually happen as they have failed to materialise over the past five years!) could cover that fudge and on the EU can go without an immediate crisis that the EU just do not wish to sully their hands with in any waynif at all possinle Lovely jubbly!No solution to anything at all but I have come to the conclusion that the EU politicians and bureaucrats and the EU visionaries right at the top of everything are so totally obsessed with the huge future they percieve for theselves personally, within Europe, that is the most probable outcome. This will not solve any problems at all and Greece will inevitably founder. which seems to me to the reality of how this mess got started in the first place.
Any thoughts?
Steffan said:
No solution to anything at all but I have come to the conclusion that the EU politicians and bureaucrats and the EU visionaries right at the top of everything are so totally obsessed with the huge future they percieve for theselves personally, within Europe, that is the most probable outcome. This will not solve any problems at all and Greece will inevitably founder. which seems to me to the reality of how this mess got started in the first place.
Any thoughts?
This is exactly as I have seen it from the start. I really do not think they care about much else outside of what they can personally gain, in power, in riches and shiny new palaces they build for themselves. It has always been about them. Now they have had a whiff of power and riches, they will not give it up so easily, short of a revolution, I would think.Any thoughts?
chris watton said:
Steffan said:
No solution to anything at all but I have come to the conclusion that the EU politicians and bureaucrats and the EU visionaries right at the top of everything are so totally obsessed with the huge future they percieve for theselves personally, within Europe, that is the most probable outcome. This will not solve any problems at all and Greece will inevitably founder. which seems to me to the reality of how this mess got started in the first place.
Any thoughts?
This is exactly as I have seen it from the start. I really do not think they care about much else outside of what they can personally gain, in power, in riches and shiny new palaces they build for themselves. It has always been about them. Now they have had a whiff of power and riches, they will not give it up so easily, short of a revolution, I would think.Any thoughts?
How about; Boy George call l'Orange up and proposes that the IMF (having fecked up royally on this issue) gets back in to the mix. The UK pays off the last tranch to the IMF (1.5 billion Euro) out of the foreign aid budget (it would only end up in some despots pocket anyway) so that Greece has technically not defaulted on an IMF loan. Then The IMF offers the deal it says will work; complete default, Greece with a primary surplus, back to the Drachma with the IMF backing it to the tune of 50 billion which a now debt free Greece can afford to service. Ouzos all round, cheap holidays in Greece again, Greece makes a rapid recovery with IMF inspectors calling the shots, various people in the EU and ECB given a loaded revolver and a bottle of Scotch.
gruffalo said:
Mermaid said:
Greeks say No, and the markets are almost unchanged from the Friday close.
If they had said Yes?
If they had said yes i think it would be much the same due to a complete lack of confidence that Greece will actually do what they say they will when it comes to controlling public spending or collecting tax.If they had said Yes?
Whilst in one sense Steffan that is a likely solution, I think this time it really is different. I was listening to some crusty old German Finance guy this morning on Today. He basically said, at least the Governments before Syriza pretended like they were going to change, reform the economy and re pay the money.
Syriza's economic policies have almost no reform contained within them and they have proved to be a really unlikable bunch to work with, so I think the club are closing ranks.
France would see it as a significant foreign policy blow for the EU to be damaged, since their entire European Foreign policy since the 2nd World War has been one of integration via the EU.
Germany would see turning on the taps again for a mark 3 bailout as opening the doors for a variety of other claims, don't forget in that article from Williams above, the Irish Government have promised to try to retrospectively renegotiate the debt burden.
Announced the all Greek Banks will be shut tomorrow, Syriza due to come back with new proposals - I think they will up the ante and call for a complete debt write off.
Syriza's economic policies have almost no reform contained within them and they have proved to be a really unlikable bunch to work with, so I think the club are closing ranks.
France would see it as a significant foreign policy blow for the EU to be damaged, since their entire European Foreign policy since the 2nd World War has been one of integration via the EU.
Germany would see turning on the taps again for a mark 3 bailout as opening the doors for a variety of other claims, don't forget in that article from Williams above, the Irish Government have promised to try to retrospectively renegotiate the debt burden.
Announced the all Greek Banks will be shut tomorrow, Syriza due to come back with new proposals - I think they will up the ante and call for a complete debt write off.
Edited by Gargamel on Monday 6th July 18:15
Art0ir said:
Mermaid said:
He's looking at it from an Irish perspective as well as a rational one. The creditors are trying to absolve themselves entirely of any responsibility in this when the truth is that debt is a two way deal.
He's spot on about Ireland. Should interest rates rise and/or the US/GB slows, they are knackered.
bazza white said:
I know they are saying holidays will be fine but how are all these all inclusive hotels doing business, wont supply chains start drying up a bit.are staff paid cash or paid direct into account.
If it isnt true already, I imagine all these hotels will be asking for cash (and not Euros identifiable as Greek issued), and paying out in cash. Probably any hard currency will do. Greece will be mainly a cash economy now.s2art said:
How about; Boy George call l'Orange up and proposes that the IMF (having fecked up royally on this issue) gets back in to the mix. The UK pays off the last tranch to the IMF (1.5 billion Euro) out of the foreign aid budget...
Go straight to Greece and lease an Island - a new Hong Kong in the med.fblm said:
911Gary said:
Yes exactly right a good friend posted it did not check for accuracy apologies if incorrect as I was busy earlier feel free to correct if an error and i will amend it or whatever?
G
Then your friend is an idiot. Look at the numbers; they are all utterly absurd.G
It's the sort of thing that halfwit @laboureoin spends all day tweeting.
Gargamel said:
Whilst in one sense Steffan that is a likely solution, I think this time it really is different. I was listening to some crusty old German Finance guy this morning on Today. He basically said, at least the Governments before Syriza pretended like they were going to change, reform the economy and re pay the money.
Syriza's economic policies have almost no reform contained within them and they have proved to be a really unlikable bunch to work with, so I think the club are closing ranks.
France would see it as a significant foreign policy blow for the EU to be damaged, since their entire European Foreign policy since the 2nd World War has been one of integration via the EU.
Germany would see turning on the taps again for a mark 3 bailout as opening the doors for a variety of other claims, don't forget in that article from Williams above, the Irish Government have promised to try to retrospectively renegotiate the debt burden.
Announced the all Greek Banks will be shut tomorrow, Syriza due to come back with new proposals - I think they will up the ante and call for a complete debt write off.
You may well be right on this. Interesting series of observations.Syriza's economic policies have almost no reform contained within them and they have proved to be a really unlikable bunch to work with, so I think the club are closing ranks.
France would see it as a significant foreign policy blow for the EU to be damaged, since their entire European Foreign policy since the 2nd World War has been one of integration via the EU.
Germany would see turning on the taps again for a mark 3 bailout as opening the doors for a variety of other claims, don't forget in that article from Williams above, the Irish Government have promised to try to retrospectively renegotiate the debt burden.
Announced the all Greek Banks will be shut tomorrow, Syriza due to come back with new proposals - I think they will up the ante and call for a complete debt write off.
Edited by Gargamel on Monday 6th July 18:15
The responses of Greece really have unsettled the EU with their referendum which gave a pretty substantial no to the EU and a bit of a bruised nose, I do agree Syriza have no intention of reforming Greece. Their current policy is to be as awkward as possible and to get everything they can out of the EU. Currently the EU are on the back foot. Very much so as the current silence and time for consideration of the Greek result shows in the abscence of any structured EU proposals. The EU coud say take it or leave it? But as Syriza have constantly stated the EU have just as much to lose as Greece if Greece defaults. The Greeks have outsmarted the EU. Once again the reality of the less than effective management within the EU is there for all to see and take note of. Bad news for the EU.
Tsiparis has convinced the Greek population that austerity can be prevented and a better deal can be negotiated. I think the EU will roll over and offer a better deal to the Dissenting Greeks. Tsiparis will therefore be ptoved the better player. You may also well be right on the Greeks demanding write offs. The EU clearly can currently continue as they will. However longer term I think that voter dissention in the EU over how much this costing and how unfair the whole subject as become, will continue to fuel the right wing results in Europe. The EU have made a real mess of this and gained precisely nothing at considerable expense to the EU Taxpayers. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
911Gary said:
Bit of perspective for the "Holier than thou brigade"
Bit of perspective for the "5 years later still don't have a fvkcing clue brigade"US banks;
https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list
UK banks;
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-...
Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 6th July 19:26
bazza white said:
I know they are saying holidays will be fine but how are all these all inclusive hotels doing business, wont supply chains start drying up a bit.are staff paid cash or paid direct into account.
All inclusive but bring your own stuff, we'll supply wine and lamb 
They might be ok if they can supply from local produce, isn't that what a holiday is about anyway, eating and drinking what the locals do? Not a whisky with your foie gras in the evening.
It'll be like the 1970's again
All options stink for them to be honest. Unless they make De Loreans over there still with mph speedo's.
Gandahar said:
All options stink for them to be honest. Unless they make De Loreans over there still with mph speedo's.
Audi/Apple could move their production there & UK call centres could move away from India to Greece, the French appoint the Greeks to fight wars for them if necessary. That's a bit of joint enterprise. Anglo/American/Franco/German project.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff