Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Andy Zarse said:
Can you not find out what bonds they're buying then piggyback on the quiet, letting them do all the hard yakka? Yes, I know there's no real fun in it but...
After 5 years in litigation the vulture fund gets his 100 cents on the $ back and you're left with a piece of paper shouting; hey you gave them their money back, what about me? To which they reply; what about you? Very rich mans game.Andy Zarse said:
Stop it I can't breathe! We'd have been a bloody great big Ireland; think where house prices would have gone, what kind of crazy mortgage schemes would the retail mortgage lenders have come up with, the FCA would have been even more hands-off, Winky would have got even more drunk on spending on "investment" and the financial crash would made NR and RBS look as genteel as the content of an old maid's chamber pot.
Edited by Andy Zarse on Tuesday 7th July 14:36
Just seen a news clip that no new proposal has been submitted by Greece to the meeting of Finance ministers currently taking place.
Probably the best thing they could have done as I guess this means they exit the Euro.
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is to address the European Parliament on Wednesday, a Greek government source said.
Reports say that the Greek side gave a presentation at the finance ministers' meeting on Tuesday. However, sources said there was no new written plan.
One source told Reuters: "They say they will submit a new request and outline of proposals, maybe tomorrow (Wednesday)."
Reflecting the level of difficulty at the meeting, another eurozone official said: "If they really plan to present something formal tomorrow, they may not find anyone to read it."
Probably the best thing they could have done as I guess this means they exit the Euro.
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is to address the European Parliament on Wednesday, a Greek government source said.
Reports say that the Greek side gave a presentation at the finance ministers' meeting on Tuesday. However, sources said there was no new written plan.
One source told Reuters: "They say they will submit a new request and outline of proposals, maybe tomorrow (Wednesday)."
Reflecting the level of difficulty at the meeting, another eurozone official said: "If they really plan to present something formal tomorrow, they may not find anyone to read it."
Edited by gruffalo on Tuesday 7th July 16:04
Gargamel said:
Can you imagine Gordon "I have abolished boom and bust" Brown with a Euro currency to play with....doesn't bear thinking about
To be fair to him in the late 90's there was still a lot of talk and considerable expectation that NuLabour would try to join ERM again and Brown was pretty resolute in keeping you out. Of course back then the Germans and French hadn't dismantled the Stability and Growth pact so it's no wonder he didn't want to join!gruffalo said:
Just seen a news clip that no new proposal has been submitted by Greece............I guess this means they exit the Euro.
I dont know how people keep getting to this conclusion. It's certainly one option, but the way the Greeks have played this, it'll be the ECB/IMF that issue the death warrant, not the Greeks opting to leave. From what I've read, Greece could sue the IMF if they boot them out of the €, though I dont know how true that is
andy-xr said:
gruffalo said:
Just seen a news clip that no new proposal has been submitted by Greece............I guess this means they exit the Euro.
I dont know how people keep getting to this conclusion. It's certainly one option, but the way the Greeks have played this, it'll be the ECB/IMF that issue the death warrant, not the Greeks opting to leave. From what I've read, Greece could sue the IMF if they boot them out of the €, though I dont know how true that is
gruffalo said:
To me it seems like Greece making it impossible for the EZ to keep them in the club, as though exit was their plan all along.
Flip it the other way, it seems like the EZ making it impossible for Greece to stay in the Euro, as though Greek exit was their plan all along. Any different? Greece moved it to a humanitarian issue fairly quickly. It wont be long before Cameron sends in food and medicines and the rest of the world's tutting at Angela
I think they want something put infront of them to agree to. It's either a s
t load of money that's a long term loan together with a write down, or to be offered a pegged currency that has a guaranteed investment of German €100bn into it to kickstart it. I dont think they much care what the currency is called, Euro, Drachma, Monopoly bonds...fblm said:
Borghetto said:
It looks like those highly paid "experts" in the City of London, have managed to increase their exposure at the expense of the competition. I guess they could always find jobs in the EU after they've hosed their long suffering shareholders capital up the wall
It looks to me like the "experts" on the internet have never heard of CDS or vulture funds.Steffan said:
What the EU cannot do is actually manage this position. Which is why they are waiting for the decision of the debtor, Greece. Madness.
I think they EU might be exactly where it wants to be. They can sound helpful and publicly claim they're happy to listen to any offers from Greece, all the while just waiting for the Greek bank meltdown to cripple their economy so much the only choice Greece has is to remove itself from the Euro or bow to their demands.Of course if they really want to be nasty they could just inform Greece that any new deal will need a democratic mandate from their own voters, which should happy drag things out until Greece is destitute and ensure none of the other weak EU members complain about special treatment for the Greeks.
andy-xr said:
Flip it the other way, it seems like the EZ making it impossible for Greece to stay in the Euro, as though Greek exit was their plan all along. Any different?
Greece moved it to a humanitarian issue fairly quickly. It wont be long before Cameron sends in food and medicines and the rest of the world's tutting at Angela
I think they want something put infront of them to agree to. It's either a st load of money that's a long term loan together with a write down, or to be offered a pegged currency that has a guaranteed investment of German €100bn into it to kickstart it. I dont think they much care what the currency is called, Euro, Drachma, Monopoly bonds...
The Eureaucrats have to make Grexit as painful as possible so that others are discouraged from doing so. Once you understand that - then you'll understand why they've come this far to keeping Greece in the Euro. I mean they could have let Greece go in 2010 - before lending them another 250 billion Euros.Greece moved it to a humanitarian issue fairly quickly. It wont be long before Cameron sends in food and medicines and the rest of the world's tutting at Angela
I think they want something put infront of them to agree to. It's either a s
t load of money that's a long term loan together with a write down, or to be offered a pegged currency that has a guaranteed investment of German €100bn into it to kickstart it. I dont think they much care what the currency is called, Euro, Drachma, Monopoly bonds...Edited by fido on Tuesday 7th July 16:32
andy-xr said:
I dont know how people keep getting to this conclusion. It's certainly one option, but the way the Greeks have played this, it'll be the ECB/IMF that issue the death warrant, not the Greeks opting to leave.
From what I've read, Greece could sue the IMF if they boot them out of the €, though I dont know how true that is
Don't think the IMF can call that particular shot. From what I've read, Greece could sue the IMF if they boot them out of the €, though I dont know how true that is
The real kicker is on the 20th of July when 3.5bn in repayments is due to be paid by Greece to the ECB, if that isn't paid, then Greece will have default on 70% of its loan book (IMF AND ECB)
Technically the ECB couldn't then continue with the ELA Banking support and the Greek banks will fold like a house of cards. However what will actually happen in this extraordinary situation is absolutely anyone's guess.
IMF keeping strangely quiet given that Greece is already in default to them.
http://www.slideshare.net/aristidesnhatzis/greece-...
Some interesting slides on how far Greece is a from having a viable future. Default really the only option, just the wait for who will be the hatchet man/woman who pulls the plug. My money on the ECB restricting credit and forcing them to need to print their own money.
Some interesting slides on how far Greece is a from having a viable future. Default really the only option, just the wait for who will be the hatchet man/woman who pulls the plug. My money on the ECB restricting credit and forcing them to need to print their own money.
Edited by Crusoe on Tuesday 7th July 16:48
Gargamel said:
Don't think the IMF can call that particular shot.
I cant quite work it out. I dont think it'll be a country that does it, political suicide for their elections. I dont think the ECB would do it, so it's kind of down to the EC and the IMF. I wonder if there's actually a way for Greece to be kicked out yet, I dont think anyone would have the ability on their own and it'd need Greece to agree, and take down the printing presses, which they could be awkward about giving back. Or they could give them back at a cost of €30bn or something for p+pturbobloke said:
Gargamel said:
Interesting to see Hollande leading the Doves, guess which countries banks have the most exposure to Greek debts?
Axionknight said:
I'm not sure on the French banks themselves, but the country has stumped up some 42 billion Euros via the bailout fund. They'll never see a penny, olive branch or no, IMO.
As of September 2014 apparently it looked like this:http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1557...
I didn't confirm each figure personally.
Gargamel said:
andy-xr said:
I dont know how people keep getting to this conclusion. It's certainly one option, but the way the Greeks have played this, it'll be the ECB/IMF that issue the death warrant, not the Greeks opting to leave.
From what I've read, Greece could sue the IMF if they boot them out of the €, though I dont know how true that is
Don't think the IMF can call that particular shot. From what I've read, Greece could sue the IMF if they boot them out of the €, though I dont know how true that is
The real kicker is on the 20th of July when 3.5bn in repayments is due to be paid by Greece to the ECB, if that isn't paid, then Greece will have default on 70% of its loan book (IMF AND ECB)
Technically the ECB couldn't then continue with the ELA Banking support and the Greek banks will fold like a house of cards. However what will actually happen in this extraordinary situation is absolutely anyone's guess.
IMF keeping strangely quiet given that Greece is already in default to them.
I suspect Tspiras is probably surprising himself how long he's managing to draw this one out. The EU really, really don't want to allow any deserters but their patience must now be wearing thin. It all comes down to how much they want the federal dream vs being made to look like fools by a bunch of gobby Trots, maybe they'll quietly take Greece out and put a bullet through the back of their head [i]pour encourager des autres[-i].
Crusoe said:
http://www.slideshare.net/aristidesnhatzis/greece-...
Some interesting slides on how far Greece is from being a viable future. Default really the only option, just the wait for who will be the hatchet man/woman who pulls the plug. My money on the ECB restricting credit and forcing them to need to print their own money.
Some interesting slides on how far Greece is from being a viable future. Default really the only option, just the wait for who will be the hatchet man/woman who pulls the plug. My money on the ECB restricting credit and forcing them to need to print their own money.
Digga said:
Gargamel said:
However what will actually happen in this extraordinary situation is absolutely anyone's guess.
Exactly. Which is why I've sunk everything I own into Green Shield Stamps.As Crusoe correctly says the point of no return went by some time ago for Greece. Equally Digga comments how ridiculous this is and qoutes Gargamel's comments on the total non viability of the Greek economy and the inevitable crash that will end this madness.
The old hackneyed phrase "If wishes came true we would all be Kings" really does summarise the current nonsense policies that the EU is relentlessly pursuing. Unfortunately these nonsense policies have been hopelessly ineffective in procuring the slightest improvement in the Greek economy. These policies will continue to fail miserably becuse the EU has failed totally to ensure the Greek government actually introduces the policies needed to restore economic balance to Greece. This has gone on far too long and cost a great deal of EUmoney (In relation to the size of the economy of Greece). Only going one way.
This has gone from a foolish mistake through successive more and more hopeless failing bail outs until once again the collapse of Greece is imminent. The wishes of the EU may still be there but the failed policies have been totally disastrous. One way or another the Greeks are going to crash out in the end.
With the EU as accident prone as they have been in this complete nonsense then the EU will probably get all the blame for the failure of Greece and all the costs of that failure and be smeared as uncaring b
ds. Very good example of how to make a complete mess of abusing power.
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