Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
WelshChris said:
Steffan said:
The EU are busting a gut to keep this rolling along and risking more and more money gambling that Greece will return to solvency. Not in five years, they haven't and I do not see how Greece can ever recover solvency.
How long is it since Greece were actually 'solvent'? - have they ever been?180 years. The position they are in now is not down to their membership of the EU, but to themselves, but it has not been helped by the big dream EU zealots, who made the mistake of admitting Greece (with their appalling economic track record) into the EU in the first place, and are now trying to save face using other peoples cash, to keep flogging a dead horse, which has been dead for so long, it stunk to the heavens even when it was first admitted to the `club'.
DJRC said:
Steffan...you appear to have forgotten my posts and comments on Merkel and the German position with regards to this: namely that the Frau has managed the situation for Germany almost perfectly. She has ensured the German banks are no longer at any great risk. She has ensured there will be minimal contagion from Greece to the wider domestic European marketplace. She has ensured a continuing European domestic marketplace for German industry to dominate. She has ensured that the debt burden on the German tax payer has been spread around every other country.
Angie has played a blinder. I keep telling you two things:
A. Never ever think Germany or Angela Merkel play for the EU. They don't, they play for Germany. The EU & the Euro are tools/instruments for them to use.
B. Angela Merkel is two steps ahead of you.
I take your points, which are well made. You have far more knowledge and experience than I on the machinations of Greman politics. Merkel has been a great champion for Germany and does remain head and shoulders above the rest of the EU leaders. Given the hoplessness of the idiots like Hollande as contemporaries, perhaps not surprisingly.Angie has played a blinder. I keep telling you two things:
A. Never ever think Germany or Angela Merkel play for the EU. They don't, they play for Germany. The EU & the Euro are tools/instruments for them to use.
B. Angela Merkel is two steps ahead of you.
I also agree that the debt burden has been spread about the countries in Europe as this has progressed. I think we all realise that Greece crashing out now will be far less damaging to the remaining EU members than it might have been before such changes were engineered. What could once have been really serious has been reconfigured to be significantly less serious.
Turning to the question of what happens next in this Greek nonsense I still cannot see how Greece can possibly continue within the EU? I am not suggesting anyone can, by this remark, merely highlighting the problem. The arrival of the new Greek (english educated interesting man?) Varoufakis replacement seems to have not been entirely successful as yet.
As a number of other contributors have reminded us Greece is the country with massive queues outside the banks, sobbing pensioners in the streets, inadequate pharmaceuticals in hospitals and chemists and a plethora of soup kitchens. I well understand why many observers point out that if this is success, they woukd prefer not to be successful.
However I do think that Syriza, given the awful mess they inherited some six months ago, have demonstrated the weakness of the actual control,that the EU have over the individual sovereign states within the EU. It seems to me that, unless the EU accept Greel debt write offs, then Greece will fall out of the EU this month? I cannot see how Greece can actually remain within this union when so visibly insolvent.
jmorgan said:
Another deadline?
This will be made to work, with a few more deadlines.
If the EU leadership do this, they will have lost whatever tiny shred (if it has any left at all) of credibility they might still have.This will be made to work, with a few more deadlines.
Economically Greece is gone, it is dead, it is no more. The EU should stop pumping adrenaline, chest pressing, and ventilating it, and let it slip away for heavens sake, and try to reclaim whatever tiny particle of credibility, and decency, for both Greece and the EU that might still be left to it.
Axionknight said:
I can see it - it'll be another final warning and final bailout, again and again and again. The onus has been pushed onto the tax payers, the pockets are deep!
Would you be able to believe someone who says this is the absolute, final, last chance, last ditch deadline, and who then puts that deadline back again and again, and again? I wouldn't.What sort of credibility would an organisation which does this have? My view would be absolutely none, in this particular matter, and of course any other.
The EU may want to keep their zealots dream alive for as long as possible, but they really must now start considering its on going credibility and therefore its future, once Greece has gone.
At the moment it is not looking good at all.
Pan Pan Pan said:
Would you be able to believe someone who says this is the absolute, final, last chance, last ditch deadline, and who then puts that deadline back again and again, and again? I wouldn't.
What sort of credibility would an organisation which does this have? My view would be absolutely none, in this particular matter, and of course any other.
The EU may want to keep their zealots dream alive for as long as possible, but they really must now start considering its on going credibility and therefore its future, once Greece has gone.
At the moment it is not looking good at all.
Good post.What sort of credibility would an organisation which does this have? My view would be absolutely none, in this particular matter, and of course any other.
The EU may want to keep their zealots dream alive for as long as possible, but they really must now start considering its on going credibility and therefore its future, once Greece has gone.
At the moment it is not looking good at all.
The EU, more toothless than ruthless.
Differing ideas of how the situation got to this stage are interesting but hardly relevant.
The Eurozone wants Greece to remain, the EU wants Greece to remain, NATO wants Greece to remain.
Merkel has just two options, both almost as bad as each other. There is no good way out. Merkel cannot win.
The Greeks are depending on a form of cargo cult and it has already arrived and divested itself of goodies. Money has been given to Greece and they have no intention of repaying it. They are just waiting for the next delivery.
Tsipras is the one who has options. Not many, but they are positive in a way.
He is, in effect, threatening that Greece will shoot itself in the head. We will leave the Euro/EU/NATO unless you up your offers.
He might even sidle up to the Big Bear. No one wants that, probably not even Putin. All he wants is the threat of it.
NATO wants a solvent(ish) Greece. The USA will not be happy to see it become unstable.
It is not all that long ago that Greece was ruled by a military junta. No one wants a return to the instability of the region, with the possible exception of Putin.
Pointing fingers is no answer.
The Eurozone wants Greece to remain, the EU wants Greece to remain, NATO wants Greece to remain.
Merkel has just two options, both almost as bad as each other. There is no good way out. Merkel cannot win.
The Greeks are depending on a form of cargo cult and it has already arrived and divested itself of goodies. Money has been given to Greece and they have no intention of repaying it. They are just waiting for the next delivery.
Tsipras is the one who has options. Not many, but they are positive in a way.
He is, in effect, threatening that Greece will shoot itself in the head. We will leave the Euro/EU/NATO unless you up your offers.
He might even sidle up to the Big Bear. No one wants that, probably not even Putin. All he wants is the threat of it.
NATO wants a solvent(ish) Greece. The USA will not be happy to see it become unstable.
It is not all that long ago that Greece was ruled by a military junta. No one wants a return to the instability of the region, with the possible exception of Putin.
Pointing fingers is no answer.
Pan Pan Pan said:
The answer to that one is no. As someone else posted, bankrupt as a nation 6 times in the last
180 years. The position they are in now is not down to their membership of the EU, but to themselves, but it has not been helped by the big dream EU zealots, who made the mistake of admitting Greece (with their appalling economic track record) into the EU in the first place,
AFAIK, the view taken over Greek application for membership of the EU was that180 years. The position they are in now is not down to their membership of the EU, but to themselves, but it has not been helped by the big dream EU zealots, who made the mistake of admitting Greece (with their appalling economic track record) into the EU in the first place,
the Greek economy would be only 1-2% of the EU economy and so it didn't matter that
the Greeks had cooked the books for entry and it wouldn't matter if they did
their usual and defaulted on loans in a few years time.
That time has come.
Interestingly, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said he wanted Greece to remain in the Eurozone but that Greece had to "tell us where they are heading" by the end of the week.
And he also issued a warning: "We have a Grexit scenario, prepared in detail."
Sounds to me like the printing presses in Frankfurt have been busy recently
making the new Drachma and the plane will be on standby soon to fly to Athens.
Derek Smith said:
Differing ideas of how the situation got to this stage are interesting but hardly relevant.
The Eurozone wants Greece to remain, the EU wants Greece to remain, NATO wants Greece to remain.
Merkel has just two options, both almost as bad as each other. There is no good way out. Merkel cannot win.
The Greeks are depending on a form of cargo cult and it has already arrived and divested itself of goodies. Money has been given to Greece and they have no intention of repaying it. They are just waiting for the next delivery.
Tsipras is the one who has options. Not many, but they are positive in a way.
He is, in effect, threatening that Greece will shoot itself in the head. We will leave the Euro/EU/NATO unless you up your offers.
He might even sidle up to the Big Bear. No one wants that, probably not even Putin. All he wants is the threat of it.
NATO wants a solvent(ish) Greece. The USA will not be happy to see it become unstable.
It is not all that long ago that Greece was ruled by a military junta. No one wants a return to the instability of the region, with the possible exception of Putin.
Pointing fingers is no answer.
Merkel has already won Derek. Job done. She neither knows nor cares what Greece does next. To be fair to Tsippy, as Ive stated a few times now he has won also, he has Greece which is all he wanted all along and he has an "enemy" to sell to his domestic audience, i.e. the troika.The Eurozone wants Greece to remain, the EU wants Greece to remain, NATO wants Greece to remain.
Merkel has just two options, both almost as bad as each other. There is no good way out. Merkel cannot win.
The Greeks are depending on a form of cargo cult and it has already arrived and divested itself of goodies. Money has been given to Greece and they have no intention of repaying it. They are just waiting for the next delivery.
Tsipras is the one who has options. Not many, but they are positive in a way.
He is, in effect, threatening that Greece will shoot itself in the head. We will leave the Euro/EU/NATO unless you up your offers.
He might even sidle up to the Big Bear. No one wants that, probably not even Putin. All he wants is the threat of it.
NATO wants a solvent(ish) Greece. The USA will not be happy to see it become unstable.
It is not all that long ago that Greece was ruled by a military junta. No one wants a return to the instability of the region, with the possible exception of Putin.
Pointing fingers is no answer.
I think the role of both the US and Russia is a bit overplayed here. At least at this stage. The Russian economy is a mess already, and a Mediterranean basket case with US air bases and a financial black hole is the last thing they need.
The US doesn't want to get embroiled in what is still an internal EU wrangle, with a fairly obvious solution to everyone but those who are fanatical about holding the European dream together at any cost to the people who live under it.
Greece needs to leave the Euro and print its own currency which will find a new, lower level in a free-floating market. Germany needs to attempt to recoup some of it's losses while making it very clear to other wavering Euro members that there is a cost to leaving.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EU zealots will see it this way, and they will attempt to cling onto Greece until the last, ensuring maximum damage when they inevitably do leave.
The US doesn't want to get embroiled in what is still an internal EU wrangle, with a fairly obvious solution to everyone but those who are fanatical about holding the European dream together at any cost to the people who live under it.
Greece needs to leave the Euro and print its own currency which will find a new, lower level in a free-floating market. Germany needs to attempt to recoup some of it's losses while making it very clear to other wavering Euro members that there is a cost to leaving.
Unfortunately, I don't think the EU zealots will see it this way, and they will attempt to cling onto Greece until the last, ensuring maximum damage when they inevitably do leave.
Pan Pan Pan said:
jmorgan said:
Another deadline?
This will be made to work, with a few more deadlines.
If the EU leadership do this, they will have lost whatever tiny shred (if it has any left at all) of credibility they might still have.This will be made to work, with a few more deadlines.
Economically Greece is gone, it is dead, it is no more. The EU should stop pumping adrenaline, chest pressing, and ventilating it, and let it slip away for heavens sake, and try to reclaim whatever tiny particle of credibility, and decency, for both Greece and the EU that might still be left to it.
Steffan said:
Turning to the question of what happens next in this Greek nonsense I still cannot see how Greece can possibly continue within the EU?
Why not? I can see why Greece has to leave the Euro, but even so they can still remain within the EU, can't they? Who, and by what mechanism will they be kicked from the EU?
Manfred Weber MEP being shouted down by Greek MEPSslow_poke said:
Steffan said:
Turning to the question of what happens next in this Greek nonsense I still cannot see how Greece can possibly continue within the EU?
Why not? I can see why Greece has to leave the Euro, but even so they can still remain within the EU, can't they? Who, and by what mechanism will they be kicked from the EU?If they actually still export anything that is.
Axionknight said:
slow_poke said:
Steffan said:
Turning to the question of what happens next in this Greek nonsense I still cannot see how Greece can possibly continue within the EU?
Why not? I can see why Greece has to leave the Euro, but even so they can still remain within the EU, can't they? Who, and by what mechanism will they be kicked from the EU?If they actually still export anything that is.
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