Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Axionknight]

My bad!

May be we can all invoke some European sense of community and start buying their products to help out

[Blib]

Farage on now....

[Digga]

Just watching events in the EU parliament and there's little being said to Greece, by other nations that could not, or indeed should not have been said at the very outset of their application to join the Euro. They're all guilty of sweeping problems under the rug.

[superlightr]

imagine the horror that the EU gov must be thinking about the UK leaving and pulling our contributions out. Greece will find its level one day when it leaves/kicked out but they owe so much, the UK doesnt we contribute so will the EU without our money contribution going in would this cause the EU central bank to go bankrupt and or the whole EU project unsustainable?

Better out now.

Edited by superlightr on Wednesday 8th July 10:14

[Blib]

Now Marine Le Pen. All fascinating stuff.

[McTory]

Maybe they will disolve the greek parliment and run greece directly from brussels and then turn on the spending taps.

The greeks lose all democracy and get shiny things

The greeks will be happy

The EU expirment will be proved to be correct

Who will be next?

[Axionknight]

Blib said:

Now Marine Le Pen. All fascinating stuff.

I doubt it, her party is awful and has its roots set firmly in the anti semite and racism trench.

[maffski]

jmorgan said:

My overriding impression is the Greeks are calling their bluff. Stick or quit. And Mekel (not the EU) cannot let go.

Merkel doesn't need to let go - the Eurozone can just leave Greece sat there as a zombie nation until it chooses a path. As long as the EU leaders keep saying they are open to negotiation they don't need to agree to anything.

[Blib]

Axionknight said:

Blib said:

Now Marine Le Pen. All fascinating stuff.

I doubt it, her party is awful and has its roots set firmly in the anti semite and racism trench.

I was referring to the debate. The debate is fascinating.

[Art0ir]

Think I'll buy my Euros before the weekend. Can't see a Grexit doing the the Euro any short term harm. Medium to long term may be a different story altogether.

[Stig]

Art0ir said:

Think I'll buy my Euros before the weekend. Can't see a Grexit doing the the Euro any short term harm. Medium to long term may be a different story altogether.

Down 1.41 5to 1.394 today....

[RYH64E]

turbobloke said:

fblm said:

RYH64E said:

At the end of the negotiating sessions the EU representatives go home to countries where the banks are open, there's food on the shelves in shops, and people have money to pay for good and services. The Greeks go home to a country that's on a downward spiral, with none of the facilities the rest of us take for granted, and where things will only get worse. I wouldn't say the Greeks are winning.

I didn't say they were winning, there isn't a scenario where they 'win', DJRC pretty much nailed it previously. Germany has already won. Whatever you call it the referendum was a democratic rejection of the EU and the more often that happens the better IMO!

Greece hasn't rejected the EU, they want to remain part of the EU and keep the euro, they've voted to reject both reform and austerity.

[Digga]

maffski said:

Merkel doesn't need to let go - the Eurozone can just leave Greece sat there as a zombie nation until it chooses a path. As long as the EU leaders keep saying they are open to negotiation they don't need to agree to anything.

Only until or unless there are similar "no votes" in other EU nations; say Portugal or Spain.

[Steffan]

Art0ir said:

Think I'll buy my Euros before the weekend. Can't see a Grexit doing the the Euro any short term harm. Medium to long term may be a different story altogether.

There are other contributors on here like Andy Zarse, DJRC, turbobloke, fbfm, RYH64E, indeed yourself, and Gargamel who are far more informed than I on currency fluctuations and predictions. Many years of working in insolvency taught me an awful lot about unsustainable debt. But currency movements are definitely not my forte.  

To my mind, making allowances for my inadequacies, which remain Legendary, on that basis, short term drop longer term recovery. In reality, Who Knows!

[Art0ir]

Steffan said:

Art0ir said:

Think I'll buy my Euros before the weekend. Can't see a Grexit doing the the Euro any short term harm. Medium to long term may be a different story altogether.

There are other contributors on here like Andy Zarse, DJRC, turbobloke, fbfm, RYH64E, indeed yourself, and Gargamel who are far more informed than I on currency fluctuations and predictions. Many years of working in insolvency taught me an awful lot about unsustainable debt. But currency movements are definitely not my forte.  

To my mind, making allowances for my inadequacies, which remain Legendary, on that basis, short term drop longer term recovery. In reality, Who Knows!

I've been following and occasionally posting on this thread for a few years now but this is the first time I've genuinely felt we're close to this all unravelling. Grexit really looks inevitable now. They need to default and Merkel won't risk political suicide by agreeing to that.

Once one leaves, devalues and starts growing again, what's to stop the rest?

As William Hague reminded us this week, if you have very different economies with artificially identical currencies and interest rates, then there will instead be huge disparity in wages, growth, employment and debt.

[Esseesse]

Blib said:

Now Marine Le Pen. All fascinating stuff.

(Not watching but) I presume she gets to speak now/more because she now has a large enough (2nd) EU-sceptic group?

[Esseesse]

superlightr said:

Greece will find its level one day when it leaves/kicked out but they owe so much

IIRC they owe far less than Germany did after WW2, which was structured/repaid in a far less punishing way than is expected of the Greeks.

[Axionknight]

Art0ir said:

I've been following and occasionally posting on this thread for a few years now but this is the first time I've genuinely felt we're close to this all unravelling. Grexit really looks inevitable now. They need to default and Merkel won't risk political suicide by agreeing to that.

Once one leaves, devalues and starts growing again, what's to stop the rest?

As William Hague reminded us this week, if you have very different economies with artificially identical currencies and interest rates, then there will instead be huge disparity in wages, growth, employment and debt.

That'll take years though, a decade, perhaps longer.

[Smollet]

Axionknight said:

That'll take years though, a decade, perhaps longer.

Well good things take time

[Ecosseven]

According to the BBC website Greece owes approx. 4b Euros to the IMF and ECB in July and 3.2b Euros to the ECB in August. Even if they somehow manage to pay the 1.6b arrears to the IMF there is no-way they can keep living hand to mouth each month without either an additional massive bail out, huge debt relief, or a repayment holiday for a few years. Or potentially a combination of all three......