Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
LongQ said:
Today's Alex cartoon covering Greece and the Chinese Stock market situation.
http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?showall=1
Interesting times all round it seems.
Perhaps we need another thread http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?showall=1
Interesting times all round it seems.
Is the end nigh for the Renminbi ?
Gargamel said:
LongQ said:
Today's Alex cartoon covering Greece and the Chinese Stock market situation.
http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?showall=1
Interesting times all round it seems.
Perhaps we need another thread http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?showall=1
Interesting times all round it seems.
Is the end nigh for the Renminbi ?
Steffan!Ok money where mouth is time.
Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
Driller said:
Ok money where mouth is time.
Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
OUT. Too many 'ifs'.Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
"If the Greeks make a deal, and it's accepted by its creditors, and it's passed in the Greek parliament (no easy feat, by the way), then it must also pass in all of these parliaments."
And this all needs to be completed by 20th July...
Driller said:
Ok money where mouth is time.
Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
Love to believe a rescue is coming, just from a people point of view. Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
However too many hawks in the Eurogroup now who want to administer teutonic style discpline. Greece in for a thwacking I think and out on the 20th following a default to the ECB.
The only possible way forward to stay in is to cross a LOT of Syriza redlines on economic reform, and I just don't think they have the credibility to do it.
Will go down to the absolute wire, and wouldn't be surprised to see either side cave in under massive pressure.
For me the interesting aspect of how the EU plays Greece is the longer term implication for how the EU will be able to play Cameron come renegotiation time.
If the EU caves to Greece in order to keep it in the Euro, it will I think strengthens Cameron's hand in his renegotiations: the EU will have shown that when push comes to shove, it will sacrifice a lot to keep someone inside the big EU tent (I realise that the Euro and the EU are not the same, but for these purposes they - or rather what they represent - might as well be). Cameron gets what he wants from renegotiations and the UK votes to stay in the EU.
OTOH, if the EU allows a Grexit from the Euro, then it reveals a harder face which presents a more difficult negotiating position for Cameron to grapple with. Added to which, Greece itself (assuming it remains an EU member despite being out of the EU) would be unlikely to be in favour of concessions in the UK's favour having been denied concessions itself. If Cameron gets nothing material from the EU, the risk of a UK exit from the EU must increase.
In short, Greece in (probably the wrong thing to do)-> successful renegotiation for the UK -> UK stays in the EU (the EU's desired objective); or
Greece out (probably the right thing to do) -> no material renegotiation -> risk of Brexit from the EU (not what the EU wants).
I would imagine that within the EU the strategists must be thinking quite a bit about what price is worth paying in relation to Greece in order to increase the chances of keeping the UK in the EU.
If the EU caves to Greece in order to keep it in the Euro, it will I think strengthens Cameron's hand in his renegotiations: the EU will have shown that when push comes to shove, it will sacrifice a lot to keep someone inside the big EU tent (I realise that the Euro and the EU are not the same, but for these purposes they - or rather what they represent - might as well be). Cameron gets what he wants from renegotiations and the UK votes to stay in the EU.
OTOH, if the EU allows a Grexit from the Euro, then it reveals a harder face which presents a more difficult negotiating position for Cameron to grapple with. Added to which, Greece itself (assuming it remains an EU member despite being out of the EU) would be unlikely to be in favour of concessions in the UK's favour having been denied concessions itself. If Cameron gets nothing material from the EU, the risk of a UK exit from the EU must increase.
In short, Greece in (probably the wrong thing to do)-> successful renegotiation for the UK -> UK stays in the EU (the EU's desired objective); or
Greece out (probably the right thing to do) -> no material renegotiation -> risk of Brexit from the EU (not what the EU wants).
I would imagine that within the EU the strategists must be thinking quite a bit about what price is worth paying in relation to Greece in order to increase the chances of keeping the UK in the EU.
Driller said:
Ok money where mouth is time.
Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
Clarify please, out of what? Out of the Euro, or out of the EU?Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
Driller said:
Ok money where mouth is time.
Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
Ah the old Howzat! question... Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
If you'd asked me 24 hours ago I'd have raised my right index finger and given a definite OUT.
However, there appears to have been a strong appeal against the umpire's decision from the American captain Obama, and Hawkeye is showing the ball is narrowly missing leg stump by a fag paper. So whilst the batsman Greece is continuing to tie himself up in all sorts of knots, on this occasion it's a NOT OUT from Umpire Zarse, even though he's looking quizzically across to the pavilion as if to ask the third official what the bloody hell he is playing at.
Looks like the euro group are going to blink and back down. Sets it up for all the other southern states to ask for the same sized reductions too and just kicks the can a bit further.
"Realistic proposal from Athens needs to be matched by realistic proposal from creditors on debt sustainability to create win-win situation"
— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) July 9, 2015
"Realistic proposal from Athens needs to be matched by realistic proposal from creditors on debt sustainability to create win-win situation"
— Donald Tusk (@eucopresident) July 9, 2015
Andy Zarse said:
Ah the old Howzat! question...
If you'd asked me 24 hours ago I'd have raised my right index finger and given a definite OUT.
However, there appears to have been a strong appeal against the umpire's decision from the American captain Obama, and Hawkeye is showing the ball is narrowly missing leg stump by a fag paper. So whilst the batsman Greece is continuing to tie himself up in all sorts of knots, on this occasion it's a NOT OUT from Umpire Zarse, even though he's looking quizzically across to the pavilion as if to ask the third official what the bloody hell he is playing at.
Made me laugh If you'd asked me 24 hours ago I'd have raised my right index finger and given a definite OUT.
However, there appears to have been a strong appeal against the umpire's decision from the American captain Obama, and Hawkeye is showing the ball is narrowly missing leg stump by a fag paper. So whilst the batsman Greece is continuing to tie himself up in all sorts of knots, on this occasion it's a NOT OUT from Umpire Zarse, even though he's looking quizzically across to the pavilion as if to ask the third official what the bloody hell he is playing at.
@Slow_poke, the Euro (for the moment).
Anyone else care to join the wager, Steffan? Come on Digga get off the fence
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