Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
gruffalo said:
If not out then how do they prevent Italy Spain Ireland and Portugal renegotiating a debt haircut?
Germany is I think the key factor and they are not of a mind to write off debt.
It's a no win either way. In, and as you say others will take umbrage and get their begging bowls out; out, cue turmoil in the short term with lots of pictures of pensioners without medicines etc which isn't good PR for 'the Project' plus the risk that with a devalued Drachma Greece turns it around and the other failures wonder why they took the pain.Germany is I think the key factor and they are not of a mind to write off debt.
Andy Zarse said:
Ah the old Howzat! question...
If you'd asked me 24 hours ago I'd have raised my right index finger and given a definite OUT.
However, there appears to have been a strong appeal against the umpire's decision from the American captain Obama, and Hawkeye is showing the ball is narrowly missing leg stump by a fag paper. So whilst the batsman Greece is continuing to tie himself up in all sorts of knots, on this occasion it's a NOT OUT from Umpire Zarse, even though he's looking quizzically across to the pavilion as if to ask the third official what the bloody hell he is playing at.
Hehe. I like that. What a great game that was ...If you'd asked me 24 hours ago I'd have raised my right index finger and given a definite OUT.
However, there appears to have been a strong appeal against the umpire's decision from the American captain Obama, and Hawkeye is showing the ball is narrowly missing leg stump by a fag paper. So whilst the batsman Greece is continuing to tie himself up in all sorts of knots, on this occasion it's a NOT OUT from Umpire Zarse, even though he's looking quizzically across to the pavilion as if to ask the third official what the bloody hell he is playing at.
The thing is though so far as anyone knows there does not seem to be a rule set for an EeeZee-OUT.
An appeal to the ECB probably has then pawing through the book of rules trying to find the missing documentation. Maybe even worried that they will have to bow to the IMF rules, whatever they are, or pay compensation.
Writing the rules and having them agreed could take .... well, years.
I reckon Greece might have grounds for a PPI claim.
Gargamel said:
gruffalo said:
If not out then how do they prevent Italy Spain Ireland and Portugal renegotiating a debt haircut?
Germany is I think the key factor and they are not of a mind to write off debt.
Finland even more hawkish on debt relief to the Greeks. Germany is I think the key factor and they are not of a mind to write off debt.
Only one person matters, and it all hangs or whether or not...
Edited by Andy Zarse on Thursday 9th July 13:59
XM5ER said:
Given that China now appears to be leveraged to the hilt, is Germany the only country in the world that is actually in the black?
I imagine Norway, probably Switzerland, a few oil rich states in the middle east, and maybe a few others I cant think of (Singapore?) are doing OK.
Non, nein! It's democratic! You can't say that. They vote on stuff and everything.Digga said:
One does get the impression that the EU does as Merkel and Hollande wishes.
It's odd that they met on Monday, but didn't release any significant joint statement. I thought that was a sign that Merkel had had enough.And today they're doing a Good Cop, Bad Cop routine via press interviews.
Driller said:
Ok money where mouth is time.
Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
I've not changed my mind since the loan, although I'm now less certain, perhaps 75% so.Who thinks Greece is OUT in the bext few weeks and who thinks NOT?
It's a close call but I'm counting on stupid Euro politics pulling through so am saying NOT.
What does everyone think, this is in terms of tomorrows deadline by Hollande to present "reasonable terms" by the end of today.
It will be a fudge. Greece will, to all practical purposes, leave the Euro but we will be told it hasn't.
It will stay in the EU.
There will be back-door deals which allow the Greek politicians to save face and tell everyone how clever they all are but just before the next elections there will be leaks, problems, pressure and such to ensure a different government, one more sympathetic to the German POV.
Where will the money come from? The EU with a contribution from the Yanks.
It will expect reward for buying so much weaponry from Germany, and it will receive it.
I agree Derek. The US isn't going to want a Nato member in such a strategic position going tits-up. With Russia sniffing around (a 2Bn euro gas deal with Greece is in the offing going against EU policy) and very unstable countries just across the Med sending thousands of migrants some of whom may well be terrorists, there will be some effing big levers being pulled behind the scenes. Of course, they may still fail.
Digga said:
One does get the impression that the EU does as Merkel and Hollande wishes.
They are the two biggest economies (bar the UK) , the EEC was set up to stop the two being at each other's throats, and Germany pays for everything, so they do carry a lot of clout.Bit like the US with its European allies - bigger countries (or ones with something others badly need) get listened to more.
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