Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Steffan]

Driller said:

Very interesting to hear all the "INs". I'd love to know what Steffan thinks!

What implications does this have for the future of the Euro then? (I think I know the answer).

Seek and ye shall find, Driller! Ask and it shall be given unto you.

Latest from the Telegraph sees a pretry good assessement of how much pressure there us on the EU to cobble a deal together and prevent Greece exiting the euro. At almost any price it would seem. The waste of space, Obama, probably the least effective President of the USA, since the awful Jimmy Carter, has stuck his hand in the mess and is putting pressure on Germany and Merkel to prevent Greece falling out of the EU.

See : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11728...

One might reasonably ask what has this got to do with Obama? Given him the opportunity to meddle in someone elseses affairs because his own are totally ineffective at making any worthwhile changes within the American economy. Which is a new opportunity he is obviously relishing. Not his problem, not his money, not his shout but that has no effect on Obama.

The real tragedy in this is that Greece is plainly, totally insolvent and our glorious political Leaders are simply looking for any method to prevent that fact being admitted by any means and at any cost. There is absolutely no sense in this nonsense, nor has there been for some time. The latest losses that will be added to the funeral pyre of the EU, QE money and thrown away on this nonsence to burn even brighter in consequence.

Given the extent of the pressure I presume Germany will give way and grudgingly agree another debt write off for Greece. Knowing it is unworkable. There will be no future in this whatsoever because Greece is a dead duck economically. That fact is visible to any reasonable observer. In consequence the reputation and credibility of the EU will be in complete tatters and immediately all the other failing states, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy etc will be understandably seeking equal treatment to that of Greece. Madness.

There will be no permanence to this whatsoever. If Germany succumb to the Combined pressure then Greece may last a little longer within the EU. But the costs to the EU are going to be dreadful!

Edited by Steffan on Friday 10th July 00:19

[davepoth]

How long will it take the Greek banks to burn through the ELA I wonder? Is there a single person or business anywhere in the country who is going to leave anything in the banks for a moment longer than they have to?

The second the banks allow withdrawals again there will be a run on the banks.

[Steffan]

davepoth said:

How long will it take the Greek banks to burn through the ELA I wonder? Is there a single person or business anywhere in the country who is going to leave anything in the banks for a moment longer than they have to?

The second the banks allow withdrawals again there will be a run on the banks.

I agree. The whole tone of this nonsense has changed as the visibility of the unsupportability of trying to continue to keep Greeece within the EU has gradually become more and more apparent. Hollande coud not care less, he has Socialist fantasies where costs aspd consequences do not exist. Obama is involved, without any right to suggest anything.

What value does this place upon intergity in European politicians? If the EU go down this route then I am beginning to think a No vote in the UK in 2016 could be an real possibility. And probably the right decision for the UK. This has become complete nonsense. Absolutely ridiculous.

[AJL308]

When the EU eventually capitulates and pours another huge sum down the bottomless pit of financial despair that is Greece why should anyone else in Europe bother paying their taxes? The Greeks certainly haven't been and anyone who thinks they are suddenly going to start is living in a parallel universe.

I run my own business so why should I bother declaring what I earn? Surely I should just operate 100% on the fiddle like the Greeks have always done? In bailing out Greece the EU is effectively saying that rampant tax avoidance and corruption is fine and will be supported as long as it saves face for them.

[davepoth]

Steffan said:

I agree. The whole tone of this nonsense has changed as the visibility of the unsupportability of trying to continue to keep Greeece within the EU has gradually become more and more apparent. Hollande coud not care less, he has Socialist fantasies where costs aspd consequences do not exist. Obama is involved, without any right to suggest anything.

What value does this place upon intergity in European politicians? If the EU go down this route then I am beginning to think a No vote in the UK in 2016 could be an real possibility. And probably the right decision for the UK. This has become complete nonsense. Absolutely ridiculous.

When the literal writing is on the literal wall, the metaphorical writing is on the metaphorical wall.

I can see Obama's point - if this goes on much longer there will be an insurrection, and Putin will be the one to ride in on a white horse. He can't say what he actually thinks, which is "The Euro is a disaster, fix it or bin it."

The EU does a lot of good for me in my job, and I have a lot of friends from all over the EU who I would never have met if not for freedom of movement, but it's becoming clearer to me that this really isn't a club I want to be in any more.

[Art0ir]

davepoth said:

How long will it take the Greek banks to burn through the ELA I wonder? Is there a single person or business anywhere in the country who is going to leave anything in the banks for a moment longer than they have to?

The second the banks allow withdrawals again there will be a run on the banks.

Valid point certainly. The only way the Irish government managed to avoid total bank insolvency was through the bank guarantee. I can't see the ECB doing the same thing.

[anonymous-user]

Luke Warm said:

Total private and public debt is about the same as total household wealth net of debt.

No it isn't. In the UK Government debt is about 1.5tr, private debt is about the same and total household wealth net of debt is about 8tr.

[Cobnapint]

5

gruffalo said:

Cobnapint said:

Tonight's offer from Greece amounts to more than the offer before the referendum that supposedly gave Stavros the mandate to tell the creditors to go f*ck themselves.

Go figure.....

I just don't get this at all.

Is the current Greek government completely disingenuous, either they offer these term in the knowledge they will never deliver against them or they do deliver which means the referendum was for naught and they will ignore what the people voted for!

Either way it is hardly surprising their is very little trust of the current Greek government among the other EZ states.

It's the way he walks around grinning like a Cheshire cat that p*sses me off.

He's the LAST person that should be smiling right now.

Wouldn't trust him, or the thicko's that voted him in, to run a bath.

[Steffan]

davepoth said:

Steffan said:

I agree. The whole tone of this nonsense has changed as the visibility of the unsupportability of trying to continue to keep Greeece within the EU has gradually become more and more apparent. Hollande coud not care less, he has Socialist fantasies where costs aspd consequences do not exist. Obama is involved, without any right to suggest anything.

What value does this place upon intergity in European politicians? If the EU go down this route then I am beginning to think a No vote in the UK in 2016 could be an real possibility. And probably the right decision for the UK. This has become complete nonsense. Absolutely ridiculous.

When the literal writing is on the literal wall, the metaphorical writing is on the metaphorical wall.

I can see Obama's point - if this goes on much longer there will be an insurrection, and Putin will be the one to ride in on a white horse. He can't say what he actually thinks, which is "The Euro is a disaster, fix it or bin it."

The EU does a lot of good for me in my job, and I have a lot of friends from all over the EU who I would never have met if not for freedom of movement, .

I agree entirely. Your last line is particularly observant, "but it's becoming clearer to me that this really isn't a club I want to be in any more" really does say it all and begs the question. This Greek nonsense has long ogone past the point of any sensibility. There is no longer any real sense running through this ridiculous mess. Politicians have descended to pretending every thing will be allbright, whilst knowing perfectly well that cannot possibly happen. Outright dishonesty. The EU is steadily destroying itself!

[Digga]

AJL308 said:

When the EU eventually capitulates and pours another huge sum down the bottomless pit of financial despair that is Greece why should anyone else in Europe bother paying their taxes? The Greeks certainly haven't been and anyone who thinks they are suddenly going to start is living in a parallel universe.

I run my own business so why should I bother declaring what I earn? Surely I should just operate 100% on the fiddle like the Greeks have always done? In bailing out Greece the EU is effectively saying that rampant tax avoidance and corruption is fine and will be supported as long as it saves face for them.

I think this is symptomatic of the very worrying undercurrent of the PIIGS situation; the real problems, the root causes are not at the fore of the discussions. It's always about the money first - debt, bailout etc. - and not the inherent issues.

Pension reform is just the start. Having workable taxes, employment laws and business regulation, and ensuring they are adhered to is the main issue for most of these beleaguered states.

[craig7l]

I can't see the fiery Greeks who bothered to leave the tavernas and deliver a no vote now being issued a yes...?

In the words of NF..

" if you rob people of identity, if you rob people of democracy....All that they are left with is violence and nationalism....I really hope and pray that the euro project is destroyed before that really happens...."

[Axionknight]

Well, they democratically voted no so let 'em face the consequences.

Turn the taps off, this nonsense has to end.

[RYH64E]

Steffan said:

I agree entirely. Your last line is particularly observant, "but it's becoming clearer to me that this really isn't a club I want to be in any more" really does say it all and begs the question. This Greek nonsense has long ogone past the point of any sensibility. There is no longer any real sense running through this ridiculous mess. Politicians have descended to pretending every thing will be allbright, whilst knowing perfectly well that cannot possibly happen. Outright dishonesty. The EU is steadily destroying itself!

It's interesting that, to the dismay of many on here I'm sure, there's been absolutely no support within Greece for a Grexit, despite their many problems they appear to want to stay members of the club. The (completely pointless imo) referendum wasn't a referendum on membership of the EU or the Eurozone, it was a vote on whether to accept the terms on offer by the Troika, Greece said no but it looks like Tsipras is in the process of agreeing even harsher terms. I suspect that part of the attraction of the EU to the poor Greek citizens is that it's actually a more efficient and better run alternative to the anarchy that would be an independent Greece with a left wing government and their own currency...

[Digga]

RYH64E said:

I suspect that part of the attraction of the EU to the poor Greek citizens is that it's actually a more efficient and better run alternative to the anarchy that would be an independent Greece with a left wing government and their own currency...

I think there may be some merit in that argument, except this is the EU which has at its head a a nation with dysfunctional business and employment laws, namely France.

[RYH64E]

Digga said:

RYH64E said:

I suspect that part of the attraction of the EU to the poor Greek citizens is that it's actually a more efficient and better run alternative to the anarchy that would be an independent Greece with a left wing government and their own currency...

I think there may be some merit in that argument, except this is the EU which has at its head a a nation with dysfunctional business and employment laws, namely France.

Whereas an independent Greece...

[Digga]

RYH64E said:

Whereas an independent Greece...

Well they can have a 37.5 minute working-week, spend the rest of the time, drinking raki, playing dominoes, wking, whatever, and keep devaluing.

[andy43]

davepoth said:

Well, wherever the money went, it didn't go on education...

[RYH64E]

andy43 said:

Well, wherever the money went, it didn't go on education...

Before you criticise try writing the same sentence in Greek.

[Digga]

RYH64E said:

Before you criticise try writing the same sentence in Greek.

Ελεύθερη Ελλάδα από την Ευρωπαϊκή φυλακή

Or, in ordinary script:

Eléf̱theri̱ Elláda apó ti̱n Ev̱ro̱païkí̱ fylakí̱

[turbobloke]

Guam said:

Digga said:

Or, in ordinary script:

Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_

And that, right there, is why I have been on PH so long

Are we allowed to include παϊκή ?