Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Guam said:
Ah yes those calculations have been skewed my whole life by Mortgage debt.
It has often been debated that to get a better comparison, that debt should be taken out of the calculations, the point being home ownership is much lower in most of Europe renting being the preferred option, this of course makes them look in better shape when the figures are contrasted.
Assuming that the landlord doesn't have mortgage debt on the property, certainly in the UK most BTL landlords are mortgaged to the hilt.It has often been debated that to get a better comparison, that debt should be taken out of the calculations, the point being home ownership is much lower in most of Europe renting being the preferred option, this of course makes them look in better shape when the figures are contrasted.
fblm said:
In your debt figures of 500% GDP you are including financial, ie bank debt and comparing that with household wealth. To make the comparison fair you either need to look at household debt to household wealth or all debt (public and private) to all wealth (public and private). You are comparing all debt with private wealth. I have never seen any kind of estimate of public wealth and am not sure how you would even start estimating it.
Your £8tr figure includes non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government, central government, local government, household, and public sector wealth.There's a spreadsheet if you don't believe me.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-referenc...
Guam said:
Ah yes those calculations have been skewed my whole life by Mortgage debt.
It has often been debated that to get a better comparison, that debt should be taken out of the calculations, the point being home ownership is much lower in most of Europe renting being the preferred option, this of course makes them look in better shape when the figures are contrasted.
Assuming that the landlord doesn't have mortgage debt on the property, certainly in the UK most BTL landlords are mortgaged to the hilt.It has often been debated that to get a better comparison, that debt should be taken out of the calculations, the point being home ownership is much lower in most of Europe renting being the preferred option, this of course makes them look in better shape when the figures are contrasted.
Luke Warm said:
Your £8tr figure includes non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government, central government, local government, household, and public sector wealth.
There's a spreadsheet if you don't believe me.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-referenc...
Same place I was getting my figures. The question was if every 'country' was in debt who has all the money. My answer was the public has the wealth and governments have the debt. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make?There's a spreadsheet if you don't believe me.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-referenc...
fblm said:
Same place I was getting my figures. The question was if every 'country' was in debt who has all the money. My answer was the public has the wealth and governments have the debt. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make?
I thought you had never seen an estimate of public wealth? 
Luke Warm said:
fblm said:
In your debt figures of 500% GDP you are including financial, ie bank debt and comparing that with household wealth. To make the comparison fair you either need to look at household debt to household wealth or all debt (public and private) to all wealth (public and private). You are comparing all debt with private wealth. I have never seen any kind of estimate of public wealth and am not sure how you would even start estimating it.
Your £8tr figure includes non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government, central government, local government, household, and public sector wealth.There's a spreadsheet if you don't believe me.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-referenc...
I have no estimate of the value of UK basic state pension and second pension/SERPS etc. Whilst these penions are certainly a liability on UK plc's balance sheet they are also an asset on that of the publics'. Broadly, do you think it's fair to say that they cancel each other out?
Andy Zarse said:
The value of UK occupational and personal pension funds is circa £3.9 trillion.
I have no estimate of the value of UK basic state pension and second pension/SERPS etc. Whilst these penions are certainly a liability on UK plc's balance sheet they are also an asset on that of the publics'. Broadly, do you think it's fair to say that they cancel each other out?
No, because the public sector is inefficient, and consumes more wealth than it helps to create. Hence the deficit - £1 in every £7 borrowed* by the state goes toward plugging the deficit in public sector pensions, at a cost of £1,500 per year to every household in the UK. The cost of servicing interest on the national debt is £50bn a year. At some point, the capital borrowed will have to be repaid, and when a debt is repaid, the money is effectively destroyed. So no, public sector pensions are a net liability.I have no estimate of the value of UK basic state pension and second pension/SERPS etc. Whilst these penions are certainly a liability on UK plc's balance sheet they are also an asset on that of the publics'. Broadly, do you think it's fair to say that they cancel each other out?
*http://order-order.com/2013/03/29/borrowing-to-pay...
Guam said:
Digga said:
??e??e?? ????da ap? t?? ????pa??? f??a??
Or, in ordinary script:
Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_
Or, in ordinary script:
Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_
And that, right there, is why I have been on PH so long
Excellent exchange. Digga clearly knows his Greek! Pistonheads still has its strengths perhaps despite the management.
Steffan said:
Guam said:
Digga said:
??e??e?? ????da ap? t?? ????pa??? f??a??
Or, in ordinary script:
Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_
Or, in ordinary script:
Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_
And that, right there, is why I have been on PH so long
Excellent exchange. Digga clearly knows his Greek! Pistonheads still has its strengths perhaps despite the management.
Confirmed (almost) by Google Translate.
LongQ said:
Steffan said:
Guam said:
Digga said:
??e??e?? ????da ap? t?? ????pa??? f??a??
Or, in ordinary script:
Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_
Or, in ordinary script:
Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_
And that, right there, is why I have been on PH so long
Excellent exchange. Digga clearly knows his Greek! Pistonheads still has its strengths perhaps despite the management.
Confirmed (almost) by Google Translate.
The completely ridiculous antics of Syriza/EU/Obama/Hollande et al, interfering, conspiring and generally being self serving with this ridiculous attempt by the EU to continued to support the failing and insolvent Sovereign State of Greece within the EU are just pathetic. Nothing worthwhile or constructive can come from this because Greece is visibly already totally insolvent. The politicians are not looking for a solution in this, they are just pushing the problem forward as far as they can.
In consequence the inevitable failure of Greece will continue. I doubt that this obviously ineffective and derisable attempt by the EU will last for but much time at all for Greece. The more I see of this the less respect I have for the approach of the EU. Matter of time. Really quite disgraceful behaviour.
Steffan said:
LongQ said:
Steffan said:
Guam said:
Digga said:
??e??e?? ????da ap? t?? ????pa??? f??a??
Or, in ordinary script:
Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_
Or, in ordinary script:
Eléf_theri_ Elláda apó ti_n Ev_ro_païkí_ fylakí_
And that, right there, is why I have been on PH so long
Excellent exchange. Digga clearly knows his Greek! Pistonheads still has its strengths perhaps despite the management.
Confirmed (almost) by Google Translate.
The completely ridiculous antics of Syriza/EU/Obama/Hollande et al, interfering, conspiring and generally being self serving with this ridiculous attempt by the EU to continued to support the failing and insolvent Sovereign State of Greece within the EU are just pathetic. Nothing worthwhile or constructive can come from this because Greece is visibly already totally insolvent. The politicians are not looking for a solution in this, they are just pushing the problem forward as far as they can.
In consequence the inevitable failure of Greece will continue. I doubt that this obviously ineffective and derisable attempt by the EU will last for but much time at all for Greece. The more I see of this the less respect I have for the approach of the EU. Matter of time. Really quite disgraceful behaviour.
The EU Project (Of which the EZ is a partial enabling mechanism) has no place, long term, for Sovereign Nations.
How does it move from 27 members (or whatever number it has or wants) to be a single political and economic entity with a concept of local partial self governing regions?
It's a learning curve and Greece is a good, relatively low cost, opportunity to test theories.
Every Sovereign State will have at least one - possible a few - locations that it will be difficult or impossible to reform.
Andy Zarse said:
The value of UK occupational and personal pension funds is circa £3.9 trillion.
I have no estimate of the value of UK basic state pension and second pension/SERPS etc. Whilst these penions are certainly a liability on UK plc's balance sheet they are also an asset on that of the publics'. Broadly, do you think it's fair to say that they cancel each other out?
The occupational and personal pension funds are real though. With the exception of a few underfunded DB schemes they are a real pot of assets owned by the public (2.1tr). The state pension and public sector pensions are just entitlements, a liability for the government and an asset to the public(3.8tr unfunded state pension, 1.2tr unfunded public sector), a further 0.3tr of the public sector liability is funded. I have no estimate of the value of UK basic state pension and second pension/SERPS etc. Whilst these penions are certainly a liability on UK plc's balance sheet they are also an asset on that of the publics'. Broadly, do you think it's fair to say that they cancel each other out?
fblm said:
The occupational and personal pension funds are real though. With the exception of a few underfunded DB schemes they are a real pot of assets owned by the public (2.1tr). The state pension and public sector pensions are just entitlements, a liability for the government and an asset to the public(3.8tr unfunded state pension, 1.2tr unfunded public sector), a further 0.3tr of the public sector liability is funded.
It's local government pensions which are funded. Other public sector pensions are unfunded.anonymous said:
[redacted]
No, obviously the shrinking economy in Italy isn't a good thing at all but the growth in the 80s (when at one point Italy had a bigger GDP than UK) was sustained by a fool public spending that increased the debt, possible because Italy wasn't in the Euro.Me too I would like to see more Italian cars around but especially since the beginning of 2000s their market share decreased because the cars were actually not good enough and since the Euro they also quickly became not cheaper than foreign ones.
I am an engineer, I don't know much about economy but I believe that for a country like Italy (and its governments over the years) some austerity in public spending and loosing the possibility to devalue the lira has been good, because has forced some companies to design higher quality products.
Anyway my view isn't very popular at the moment, anti-EU consensus increased. I can say that for me EU "worked", I has been working and living for some time in France and Germany feeling almost at home I could say I feel European in addition to Italian.
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