Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Borghetto]

Crusoe said:

A couple of interesting articles:

One from Germany on the battle between Merkel and Schaeuble and why he seems to be holding more of the cards and why he pushed for such a bad deal to force the Greeks to take the exit.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/schaeu...

A second that gives a bit more detail on the Greek discussions with Russia and why they caved so completely to take the only deal on the table. Russia turned down the request for help to bank roll the printing of the Drachma.

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/07/21/tsipras...

Fascinating articles, really helps to explain the dynamics behind the final deal.

[Digga]

Borghetto said:

Fascinating articles, really helps to explain the dynamics behind the final deal.

Very interesting.

FWIW, I was conversing with a Russian business contact (about another matter) this morning and he says the situation is very depressed there. I'm sure Putin has trouble enough of his own, without bankrolling the Greeks.

[Esseesse]

Digga said:

Very interesting.

FWIW, I was conversing with a Russian business contact (about another matter) this morning and he says the situation is very depressed there. I'm sure Putin has trouble enough of his own, without bankrolling the Greeks.

This is what I thought when reading the article. Mr Putin already has plenty on his plate.

[Andy Zarse]

Digga said:

Borghetto said:

Fascinating articles, really helps to explain the dynamics behind the final deal.

Very interesting.

FWIW, I was conversing with a Russian business contact (about another matter) this morning and he says the situation is very depressed there. I'm sure Putin has trouble enough of his own, without bankrolling the Greeks.

Yes, Tzippy was an idiot if he was ever banking on Russia coming up with big cash. The oil price falling through the floor should have told him that, let alone Russia's self-inflicted geo-political isolation. Still, there's none so blind as a socialist about to run out of money...

[Beati Dogu]

Apparently, now the Americans have given up on Iran, they're going to transfer their full attention to Russia.

Putin himself is worth up to $40 billion it is estimated.

[DJRC]

The Sunday Times appears to have done as much legwork on Putin as the Yanks.

If David Walsh can bring down Lance - Vlad must be shaking in his judoka

[Pan Pan Pan]

Andy Zarse said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

I always wondered if the Greeks have cracked the market in military strategy?

They turn up wearing little embroidered waistcoats, teensy party frocks, white tights, and ballet shoes (with pom poms) and then the enemy dies in their hundreds.......from laughing

Still, some of our uniforms, and military tactics have not been all that clever in the past either.

Personally I wouldn't mess a Greek paratrooper, they're hard as nails. I guess laughing at Greek military pompoms is a sure fire way to get your teeth kicked out.

Point Taken, Having seen a pair of Greek policemen rough up a UK tourist, and destroy his camera, because he took a photo from the airport lounge I can well believe that.
The issue was that two units of the `Greek airforce' happened to be on the apron, next to the airliners. Unfortunately they were so old, and decrepit, `we' use better for fire, or ground target practice. But I guess no one told the Greeks that when they bought them
As for the Evzones, they might well kick my teeth out, but I still reckon I would be long dead from laughing before they could catch me FFS what country puts their military out in party frocks, diddy waistcoats, and slippers with pom poms, and then expects to be taken seriously?

[LongQ]

BBC article on the IMF and its future - or maybe lack of future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33537445

The last section, and the last paragraph in particular, are particularly interesting.


An American view ....


"The IMF's level of misjudgement here in Greece is of epic proportions. If you can't save Greece how can you save bigger problems when they come along? Like France. Because the real problem isn't Greece, it's the bigger ones further down the track."

[Welshbeef]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Well if you own your villa outright have land and could if you so wanted produce food it's a very very cheap existence & rewarding.

I feel for those pensioners and unlucky individuals who bought holiday homes in Greece and have lost the lot. It's harsh really harsh and no doubt there is no way those individuals can recover -- but they still have their health their family & really when all is said and done that is all that matters the rest no doubt will cause huge distress and be hard to accept but once they get over that the really important things in life will emerge

[Cobnapint]

Andy Zarse said:

Yes, Tzippy was an idiot if he was ever banking on Russia coming up with big cash. The oil price falling through the floor should have told him that, let alone Russia's self-inflicted geo-political isolation. Still, there's none so blind as a socialist about to run out of money...

To be fair to Putin, he did have a look of 'If you think I'm getting involved in this sh*t you've got another thing coming. Get this prick out of my office - now!'

[Driller]

LongQ said:

BBC article on the IMF and its future - or maybe lack of future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33537445

The last section, and the last paragraph in particular, are particularly interesting.


An American view ....


"The IMF's level of misjudgement here in Greece is of epic proportions. If you can't save Greece how can you save bigger problems when they come along? Like France. Because the real problem isn't Greece, it's the bigger ones further down the track."

I have to admit I agree with talk of the need to "save" countries like Greece but I think a country like France is sufficiently powerful enough that putting it in the same group is pretty hypocritical and they'd do better to look at saving their own asses before looking at other peoples'.

[turbobloke]

LongQ said:

BBC article on the IMF and its future - or maybe lack of future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33537445

Given that the IMF report - leaked just before the dud deal was done - recognised that it was a dud deal, any sense of the IMF getting it wrong must relate to the IMF not recognising that a financial perspective is inappropriate for examining the EU's financial crisis management.

They need to pretend that lending Greece many billions to alllow them to pay back many billions fixes everything, recognising that The Projekt is what matters not how long it takes Greece to go titsup, nor what happens to Greeks or citizens of any other nation in the interim.

If the IMF doesn't 'get it' with regard to the EU Meisterplan then we can't expect the BBC to publish or broadcast much stroking of the IMF's feathers.

[Digga]

Driller said:

LongQ said:

BBC article on the IMF and its future - or maybe lack of future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33537445

The last section, and the last paragraph in particular, are particularly interesting.


An American view ....


"The IMF's level of misjudgement here in Greece is of epic proportions. If you can't save Greece how can you save bigger problems when they come along? Like France. Because the real problem isn't Greece, it's the bigger ones further down the track."

I have to admit I agree with talk of the need to "save" countries like Greece but I think a country like France is sufficiently powerful enough that putting it in the same group is pretty hypocritical and they'd do better to look at saving their own asses before looking at other peoples'.

I can see your angle - that France is by no means as FUBARed as Greece, but you have to remember it's significantly bigger and exhibits a lot of the worst traits of Greece. It also stands directly in the firing line of Greek banking debts.

The comment from the American observer is valid; he's looking a couple of steps ahead.

[turbobloke]

Digga said:

The comment from the American observer is valid; he's looking a couple of steps ahead.

Yes it's valid in that way, but if a couple of steps ahead there may be a bigger can, then there's also a bigger kick. Old rules will be broken at will and new rules created on the hoof. Nothing new.

[Steffan]

Driller said:

LongQ said:

BBC article on the IMF and its future - or maybe lack of future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33537445

The last section, and the last paragraph in particular, are particularly interesting.


An American view ....


"The IMF's level of misjudgement here in Greece is of epic proportions. If you can't save Greece how can you save bigger problems when they come along? Like France. Because the real problem isn't Greece, it's the bigger ones further down the track."

I have to admit I agree with talk of the need to "save" countries like Greece but I think a country like France is sufficiently powerful enough that putting it in the same group is pretty hypocritical and they'd do better to look at saving their own asses before looking at other peoples'.

Informative and interesting posts from LongQ and Driller. Well worth thinking about. At my age I need encouragement!

France is a real economic mess currently and the reality of the problems that this impending disaster represents for the EU, to fail to solve, just as they have failed to solve thse in the case of the insolvent tiddler Greece, currently. The IMF aso has deeply serious challenges which it is currently hiding under the carpet. The conseqences of such organised misrepresentation will inevitably surface in time. What then I wonder?

Perhaps the most significant feature of this Greek nonsense is that the repeated and deliberate misrepresentation and continued failure of the EU to admit that there is a real problem which the EU cannot actually either get to grips with, effectively and correct, or control, in any way whatsoever, is the most serious long term problem that the EU is cheerfully failing to recognise. Pretending all is well and printing money happily, to their hearts content, whilst also deliberately misrepresenting the truth that it is most certainly not, at all well, has to some extent worked with Greece because Greece is a minnow.

As others have said on here and in the media in the scheme of things the sums involved are not necessarily , within the context of the EU itself, significant, and if the reality of the abject failure of the Greek economy within the EU was actually recognised and admitted the changes made to allow Greece the space and time to recover including writing off all the Greek debts could be effected. Clearly these are never going to be repaid! Theere coud then be an end to the losses steadily mounting up against the solvent EU states in this nonsense.

Sadly the lies proffered by the EU, that no losses would result from this mess, to any EU state, have foistthe EU by its own petard! In consequence the EU is steadily building a real credibility gap and when the drop comes, which it will, in time, the consequences to the reputation of the EU could be really damaged possibly to the point where the Euro sinks and the EU is unable to control the effects of ther dishonesty becoming apparent. Confidence in a currency is a very fickle matter to manage.

One way or another I do think the EU is facing challenges that the EU may well be unable to match. Referenda, never a democratic device beloved of EU politicians, coud well scupper the EU. Foist by their own petard? I rather think so.

[superlightr]

Welshbeef said:

Well if you own your villa outright have land and could if you so wanted produce food it's a very very cheap existence & rewarding.

I feel for those pensioners and unlucky individuals who bought holiday homes in Greece and have lost the lot. It's harsh really harsh and no doubt there is no way those individuals can recover -- but they still have their health their family & really when all is said and done that is all that matters the rest no doubt will cause huge distress and be hard to accept but once they get over that the really important things in life will emerge

But they have not Lost the lot. They have a property to live in Greece. They will still have their pension paid to them from the UK.

[LongQ]

Well well.

Greece gets a €35 billion grant from the EU over the next 4 years or so.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5373_en...


This is, of course, nothing at all to do with a bail out.

Nothing whatsoever.

Which is why it was not mentioned at the time as far as I can recall.


Richard North at EUReferendum has some interesting observations on how things seem to have developed and how they will continue to develop for the next few years.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=8...



And then there is that incredible statesman Mr. Obama who is reported, through the BBC of course, to be telling the UK it needs to stay in the EU to have any degree of world importance.

Possibly that would suit America. Or possibly he does not quite understand why anyone might prefer separation from a Federalist state since he "leads" a Federation of States.

Or maybe he just feels he can say anything that comes into his head now that he is coming to the end of his term.

[NicD]

35 f**ing billion!! A grant, not a loan?

I feel physically ill. How much of that is a UK contribution?

What a terrible state of affairs, and why has it not been featuring on all the front pages?

[Walford]

LongQ said:

And then there is that incredible statesman Mr. Obama who is reported, through the BBC of course, to be telling the UK it needs to stay in the EU to have any degree of world importance.

Possibly that would suit America. Or possibly he does not quite understand why anyone might prefer separation from a Federalist state since he "leads" a Federation of States.

Or maybe he just feels he can say anything that comes into his head now that he is coming to the end of his term.

He should come over and save the Euro

,

[turbobloke]

LongQ said:

And then there is that incredible statesman Mr. Obama who is reported, through the BBC of course, to be telling the UK it needs to stay in the EU to have any degree of world importance.

That's good news for the No / Out campaign. Has the sainted Russell Brand spoken out in facour of staying in the EU? A double bonus after Obama.