Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Digga]

turbobloke said:

LongQ said:

And then there is that incredible statesman Mr. Obama who is reported, through the BBC of course, to be telling the UK it needs to stay in the EU to have any degree of world importance.

That's good news for the No / Out campaign. Has the sainted Russell Brand spoken out in facour of staying in the EU? A double bonus after Obama.

Yes, dmaned by faint praise springs to mind. Obama is an utter waste of space - he's been a flag of convenience for the US and, of the things he has enacted - minimum wage nonsense, aping the EU, the verdict is poor: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21659741-glo...

[Pan Pan Pan]

Given their throwing of billions of Euros at basket case Greece to keep the `great vision' going, if the EU want the UK to remain in the EU, then any concessions they must now make to ensure the UK does not leave the club `ought' to be heavenly.
It will be interesting to watch how the EU deals with the UK over the next year or so. If there are no changes in the right direction for the UK) they could seriously swing the population towards the NO vote.

[Cobnapint]

Pan Pan Pan said:

Given their throwing of billions of Euros at basket case Greece to keep the `great vision' going, if the EU want the UK to remain in the EU, then any concessions they must now make to ensure the UK does not leave the club `ought' to be heavenly.
It will be interesting to watch how the EU deals with the UK over the next year or so. If there are no changes in the right direction for the UK) they could seriously swing the population towards the NO vote.

Fully agree. The recent f*ck up in Greece has opened a rather large can of worms that has brought the whole 'Europe' thing into doubt.

I know we aren't in the EZ, but many peoples minds, like myself, will now be erring towards a 'No' - especially with clueless Hollande's calls for ever closer political unity and Jean-Claude Spunker wanting absolutely 'everything' to be combined into one great big witch's cauldron. The UK has already lost quite a bit of control over it's self governance, and with more losses on the menu, and Portugal/France/Spain and Italy's financial woes waiting in the wings - it had better be good Cameron...!

[maffski]

LongQ said:

Well well.

Greece gets a €35 billion grant from the EU over the next 4 years or so.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5373_en...


This is, of course, nothing at all to do with a bail out.

Nothing whatsoever.

Which is why it was not mentioned at the time as far as I can recall.

Except this isn't new money is it?

It's just totalling together all the standard EU funding that all nations get, for example 15bn is from the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF), in the same time period Germany has a provisional 30bn, France 45bn and the UK 21bn.

The special treatment seems to be that the EU will cover 95% of that funding (with Greece having to invest 5%) rather than the 85% other countries receive, and that the outstanding funding from the previous budget will be paid at 100% (worth about 2bn).

It seems to be more of a case of the politicians wanting to look important when they're really doing nothing.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Cobnapint said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

Given their throwing of billions of Euros at basket case Greece to keep the `great vision' going, if the EU want the UK to remain in the EU, then any concessions they must now make to ensure the UK does not leave the club `ought' to be heavenly.
It will be interesting to watch how the EU deals with the UK over the next year or so. If there are no changes in the right direction for the UK) they could seriously swing the population towards the NO vote.

Fully agree. The recent f*ck up in Greece has opened a rather large can of worms that has brought the whole 'Europe' thing into doubt.

I know we aren't in the EZ, but many peoples minds, like myself, will now be erring towards a 'No' - especially with clueless Hollande's calls for ever closer political unity and Jean-Claude Spunker wanting absolutely 'everything' to be combined into one great big witch's cauldron. The UK has already lost quite a bit of control over it's self governance, and with more losses on the menu, and Portugal/France/Spain and Italy's financial woes waiting in the wings - it had better be good Cameron...!

The EU will probably not like it, but the Greek fiasco might now give the average UK punter a bit of a yardstick to compare how the UK is treated by the EU. A yardstick which did exist before.
If they can throw billions at basket case Greece, but not even want to discuss valid much needed revisions of EU policy with the UK, then we know they only want our cash but not our opinions.

We were only admitted in the first place, under onerous conditions applied by that ungrateful tw*t DeGaulle, (the impact of which was mitigated to an extent, by Thatchers subsequent securing of the UK`s rebate, and of course later Bliars giving them away for nothing)

As posted before this could be the best chance the EU will ever have to get its house in order,
but if they stay true to form, they will not recognise this, and will simply carry on with the arrogant grand vision, until of course the whole thing falls apart owing to rotting corruption from the inside. Interesting times lay ahead.

[Digga]

Here's a good take:

zerohedge said:

If itsy bitsy pie slice – Greece (.33%) – can create this much worldwide economic havoc because of their unpayble level of debt, imagine what will happen when the truth is revealed about France (3.81%), Italy (2.88%), and Spain (1.88%).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-23/world-economy-visualized

[Mermaid]

Walford said:

He should come over and save the Euro

Too much manipulation

The Chinese central bankers busy supporting the gambling habits of its citizens:

China equities on track for seventh straight daily gain
Friday 04:00 BST. Chinese equities are on track for a seventh straight daily gain as a burst bubble reflates with the support of Beijing.

[Borghetto]

Digga said:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-23/world-eco...

Gratifying to see the UK being ahead of both France and Italy and by quite a margin.

[LongQ]

maffski said:

LongQ said:

Well well.

Greece gets a €35 billion grant from the EU over the next 4 years or so.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5373_en...


This is, of course, nothing at all to do with a bail out.

Nothing whatsoever.

Which is why it was not mentioned at the time as far as I can recall.

Except this isn't new money is it?

It's just totalling together all the standard EU funding that all nations get, for example 15bn is from the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF), in the same time period Germany has a provisional 30bn, France 45bn and the UK 21bn.

The special treatment seems to be that the EU will cover 95% of that funding (with Greece having to invest 5%) rather than the 85% other countries receive, and that the outstanding funding from the previous budget will be paid at 100% (worth about 2bn).

It seems to be more of a case of the politicians wanting to look important when they're really doing nothing.

True in so far as it goes although there was a rather interesting choice of word in the official press release ("mobilises").

Either Greece was going to get this anyway and the eurocrats are just puffing their own self-importance to cover their lack of true management options or they are waving a large olive branch (disproportionately large?) to the Greek populace as thanks for being pawns in the game playing that is EU politics.

When playing the games they have been playing with budgets and loans and bail outs and all the liquidity the EU/EZ has ploughed into the Greek system in recent decades AND looking at the comments about the "grants" being tied into achieving certain objective that are part of the bailout "loan" conditions anyway (and yet to be addressed after years of discussion it would seem) then one has to wonder whether the whole charade is really what has been presented for public consumption. Is it really a Greek Tragedy or some Europeanised variation on a French Farce? That is is, one way or another, Theatre must by now be undeniable.


If the EUReferendum reading of the politics in the drama is even half correct about where things will be heading in the next 2 or 3 years Cameron's token referendum looks increasingly less relevant as an opportunity to "democratically" request an exit from EU politics. In fact the timing would be almost perfect for ensuring that the electorate demand that the UK (or maybe just England by then?) stay IN to see what happens. That would fix things for a another generation or two with any further attempts to dissociate being dismissed without debate. (read the full linked EUReferendum piece for the expanded context.)

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

maffski said:

LongQ said:

Well well.

Greece gets a €35 billion grant from the EU over the next 4 years or so.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5373_en...


This is, of course, nothing at all to do with a bail out.

Nothing whatsoever.

Which is why it was not mentioned at the time as far as I can recall.

Except this isn't new money is it?

It's just totalling together all the standard EU funding that all nations get, for example 15bn is from the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF), in the same time period Germany has a provisional 30bn, France 45bn and the UK 21bn.

The special treatment seems to be that the EU will cover 95% of that funding (with Greece having to invest 5%) rather than the 85% other countries receive, and that the outstanding funding from the previous budget will be paid at 100% (worth about 2bn).

It seems to be more of a case of the politicians wanting to look important when they're really doing nothing.

True in so far as it goes although there was a rather interesting choice of word in the official press release ("mobilises").

Either Greece was going to get this anyway and the eurocrats are just puffing their own self-importance to cover their lack of true management options or they are waving a large olive branch (disproportionately large?) to the Greek populace as thanks for being pawns in the game playing that is EU politics.

When playing the games they have been playing with budgets and loans and bail outs and all the liquidity the EU/EZ has ploughed into the Greek system in recent decades AND looking at the comments about the "grants" being tied into achieving certain objective that are part of the bailout "loan" conditions anyway (and yet to be addressed after years of discussion it would seem) then one has to wonder whether the whole charade is really what has been presented for public consumption. Is it really a Greek Tragedy or some Europeanised variation on a French Farce? That is is, one way or another, Theatre must by now be undeniable.


If the EUReferendum reading of the politics in the drama is even half correct about where things will be heading in the next 2 or 3 years Cameron's token referendum looks increasingly less relevant as an opportunity to "democratically" request an exit from EU politics. In fact the timing would be almost perfect for ensuring that the electorate demand that the UK (or maybe just England by then?) stay IN to see what happens. That would fix things for a another generation or two with any further attempts to dissociate being dismissed without debate. (read the full linked EUReferendum piece for the expanded context.)

Interesting and detaied observations and comments.

Perhaps the worst feature of this EU nonsense over Greece is that the EU politicians have devolved a system which allows them grossly excessive free ranging with the EU taxpayers hard earned money, without any effective scrutiny or control. The EU literally pretends all is well abd never needs to offer any considered and plausible explanation for hundreds of Billions of Euros being thrown away on the completely potty self indulgent nonsence that this Greek affair has become. There is no effective financial control over these actions by the EU all very carefully secreted within the never to be audited or admitted nonsense that has become, the EU.

This has been very bad news from the start of this afaiir and has been getting steadily more unsustainable and serious for year, after year, after year. Another 35 Bilion € thrown onto the bonfire of vanities that this nonsence has become. On top of the 85 Billion € already given to Greece for agreeing to live on handouts and sup from the EU pot of gold. Ridiculous!

Varoufakis is still up to the mark as this article on the Beeb suggests

See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33615113

As he says therein Greece must have debt relief and Greece will have debt relief. There is no other realistic consequence to this nonsense. The EU are going to look the complete charlatans that, they have steadily become, in deliberately mismanaging and continually misreresenting the consequences of this affair! Greece will not recover.

The Solvent EU states will pick up all of the losses from this miserable affar. Then the effluent will hit the fan, very probably at Turbo speed! One way or another the longer this goes on the worse the consequences for the EU are going to become. The crunch when it comes is going to be very nasty and cause a lot of changes to the EU. Matter of survival I suspect. Seb Blatter could fit well into the EU. Bad news from the start!

[steveT350C]

Moving on From the Euro - Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, Professor of Economic History and Fellow of All Souls College, University of Oxford.


http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozo...

[turbobloke]

steveT350C said:

Moving on From the Euro - Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, Professor of Economic History and Fellow of All Souls College, University of Oxford.


http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozo...

Time to abandon the failed project - a very good point which gets lost behind blinkers.

[Art0ir]

steveT350C said:

Moving on From the Euro - Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, Professor of Economic History and Fellow of All Souls College, University of Oxford.


http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozo...

Interesting stats in the comments there.

Equity market index changes for Eurozone countries in the ten year period from July 1 2005 to June 30,2015

In local currency (Euro):
Germany DAX: up 125%
France CAC40: up 10%
Spain IBEX35: up 5%
Italy FTSE MIB: down 32%

Adjusted for currency depreciation (EUR v USD):
Germany DAX: up 93%
France CAC40: down 5%
Spain IBEX35: down 10%
Italy FTSE MIB: down 41%

[b2hbm]

Following on from earlier posts about the US comments on the role of the IMF in all this, there's an interesting note on Reuters about the next MD for the IMF

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/25/uk-imf-le...

It looks like the subtle hint of "I'll do another term if you want me to" isn't going to happen and they clearly don't want another EU leader in charge of their money. Can't say I blame them really.

[Art0ir]

b2hbm said:

Following on from earlier posts about the US comments on the role of the IMF in all this, there's an interesting note on Reuters about the next MD for the IMF

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/25/uk-imf-le...

It looks like the subtle hint of "I'll do another term if you want me to" isn't going to happen and they clearly don't want another EU leader in charge of their money. Can't say I blame them really.

I imagine they're not impressed with France, us and some other European countries getting behind the AIIB either.

[Mermaid]

Mermaid said:

Walford said:

He should come over and save the Euro

Too much manipulation

The Chinese central bankers busy supporting the gambling habits of its citizens:

China equities on track for seventh straight daily gain
Friday 04:00 BST. Chinese equities are on track for a seventh straight daily gain as a burst bubble reflates with the support of Beijing.

& today:

China's 8.5% plunge leads bourses lower.

[Steffan]

Mermaid said:

Mermaid said:

Walford said:

He should come over and save the Euro

Too much manipulation

The Chinese central bankers busy supporting the gambling habits of its citizens:

China equities on track for seventh straight daily gain
Friday 04:00 BST. Chinese equities are on track for a seventh straight daily gain as a burst bubble reflates with the support of Beijing.

& today:

China's 8.5% plunge leads bourses lower.

Mermaid I do share your concern in this!

What are the Chinese Mandarins playing at!? Could be vastly more serious!

I do wonder what suggestions Obama will make?

None I suspect far too near to home for him to use as a means to up his profile.

Really serious stuff. What are your thoughts you are far closer than I to the markets. It would be most interesting to hear your views!! Is this the start of the drop or are we now expecting stabilisation? Could be damned tricky!!

[davepoth]

China still looks to be over-valued, but it's become completely irrational. It could go anywhere.

[Mermaid]

Steffan said:

Really serious stuff. What are your thoughts you are far closer than I to the markets. It would be most interesting to hear your views!! Is this the start of the drop or are we now expecting stabilisation? Could be damned tricky!!

Markets always beat political shenanigans as we well know. The Chinese government has vowed to support the markets after today's drop, but for how long? China is not a mature stock market in the scheme of things and I would not wish to go long that market, or short it.

How long before liquidity issues prevail?

[Pan Pan Pan]

Interestingly George Osborne`s visit to France today to discuss the UK`s request for changes, seems to be meeting with quite a different attitude, to what was in place only a few weeks ago.
It seems that even France might finally have woken up to the fact, that if the UK continues to be treated the way it has been since `its' admission to the club, it could well vote to leave, taking its second net largest annual injection of cash into EU coffers with it, (and one of the EU`s best markets) Interesting times lay ahead.