Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[LongQ]

Steffan said:

The Emperors clothes story, is perfectly demonstrated by the total arrogance of the EU in this nonsense, trying to pretend the Greek economy can be restored. It can never be!

In which case the only managed solution on offer (and the Eu bureaucrats do like "managed") is "more Europe". Greece, as with any relatively minor (I don't mean that to sound derogative) influence on policy just needs to be subsumed into a greater Europe as each country in Europe has its own "micro-Greece" areas.

Globalisation, and in particular global governance, will have no place for small teams as it takes hold. Eventually there will be no place for anything but artificial "teams" all managed by the same owners.

Whether or not that will be good for the Human Race one might debate.

Unfortunately one would be debating from a point of ignorance since no one would have any valid experience on which to base their position.

Then again, it's a can kicking game - so would that matter at all?

[LongQ]

Gargamel said:

Small pebbles, but maybe one day boulders.

Surely geology strongly suggests that that works only the other way around?

[Driller]

Steffan said:

Given the visibility of the hopless indebtedness of Greece I suspect the cracks will start to show, pretty smartish. I do not expect this complete nonsense to last long at all. It is by any reasonable aseesement outright madness and therefore it will be seen for what it really represents. Twaddle from the EU. Regrettably when the crunch does come the consequences to the seriously damaged reputation and trust in the EU as an entity may well cause waves of concern which the EU cannot calm. I can see the failure of the economic minnow Greece, having deeply serious cosequences to the credibility of the EU as a stable currency.

Just a matter of time

Ironically Steffan, the value and persistence of your predictions are much like the Greek economy: Worthless but with a seemingly endless longevity

[Gargamel]

LongQ said:

Surely geology strongly suggests that that works only the other way around?

I was thinking landslides...

[Steffan]

Driller said:

Steffan said:

Given the visibility of the hopless indebtedness of Greece I suspect the cracks will start to show, pretty smartish. I do not expect this complete nonsense to last long at all. It is by any reasonable aseesement outright madness and therefore it will be seen for what it really represents. Twaddle from the EU. Regrettably when the crunch does come the consequences to the seriously damaged reputation and trust in the EU as an entity may well cause waves of concern which the EU cannot calm. I can see the failure of the economic minnow Greece, having deeply serious cosequences to the credibility of the EU as a stable currency.

Just a matter of time

Ironically Steffan, the value and persistence of your predictions are much like the Greek economy: Worthless but with a seemingly endless longevity

Always apply to oblige

I cannot see any future in this for Greece or the EU. There seems to be a growing realisation generally that Greece cannot possibly recover. The ridiculous antics of the EU in trying to pretend that Greece can actually ever afford to repay their borrowings are pathetic and demeaning. Greece is a dead duck supported only by the continuous Daily funding from the EU. There is going to be an almighty row within (and without) the EU once Greece falls away, which Greece will. Consequences will be very serious for the EU.

[911Gary]

I think only a few really realise just how keen these aholes are to keep the train rolling regardless of fiscal reality,as long as the "Fill" exceeds the "Leaks" it will carry on and on and on it has too,there is no accounting being done here,only fraud deception and dishonesty....the legacy of which will be a millstone around the neck of the EZ grandchildren and their children,I so hope we leave.
G

[Digga]

Driller said:

Ironically Steffan, the value and persistence of your predictions are much like the Greek economy: Worthless but with a seemingly endless longevity

I'm not so sure. Thinks seem to be getting worse and faster. I don't relish the news, but it is all there if you care to read it. Take your pick:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/one-furio...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/china-oil...

[Driller]

Digga said:

Driller said:

Ironically Steffan, the value and persistence of your predictions are much like the Greek economy: Worthless but with a seemingly endless longevity

I'm not so sure.

I know Digga, you've been telling me for the last 4 years every time I doubt one of Steffan's myriad Greece style "predictions".

[Gargamel]

Driller said:

I know Digga, you've been telling me for the last 4 years every time I doubt one of Steffan's myriad Greece style "predictions".

Driller, I know we have all been round the houses on this stuff, but do you still feel the Euro is a sucessful currency union? Are you in anyway concerned over the events in Greece ?

Do you expect the Greeks to recover under bailout 3 ? And if it is such a great plan, why didn't it work the first two times they tried it?

[Steffan]

Driller said:

Digga said:

Driller said:

Ironically Steffan, the value and persistence of your predictions are much like the Greek economy: Worthless but with a seemingly endless longevity

I'm not so sure.

I know Digga, you've been telling me for the last 4 years every time I doubt one of Steffan's myriad Greece style "predictions".

I like the word"Myriad" it's rather like the word "Plethora" covers an undisclosed multitude of sins. I like the phrase "Multitude of Sins" almost as well, that being a pretty fair description of my approach to life. If the was a Sin about try it, if not make one happen!

Despite all the excesses and daft tricks, crashes, disasters and so on that involved and the marriages and relationships and a manic lifestyle for pushing 70 years my constitution is still running ok(ish) despite the many many warnings of dire and permanent consequences! An awful lot of Doctors have predicted my demise over many years. Somewhat worne around the edges and perhaps not quite so lunatic in life I am still here so far? Worked for me, at least so far!.

On the subject of the Thread from the start I have sought to establish the inevitability of the fall out of Greece from the EU. From the start o this thread I have equally, always recognised the strength that the QE printing presses of the EU give to the EU, (short term), to waste Billions of Euros as they will. Five years of the EU dishonestly throwing, hundreds of Billions of Euros, away by tye shedload, all provided unwittingly by the EU taxpayers, whilst the EU pretend all is well and that there are no problems has enabled their forelorn attempt to retain Greece within the EU and has delayed the inevitable fallout of Greece from the EU year upon year.

What the EU cannot do and have not done, over those five years of subsidy to Greece, all bought with the unwitting EU taxpayers hard earned money, is to actually effect the slightest improvement within the economy of Greece. That is because using crooked money to sustain an economic impossibility is much easier than actually addressing the underlying economic problems. Common place in Ponzi schemes, which regrettably is now what this affair has become. Crooked!

The EU can and are dishonestly misrepresenting the situation. The EU cannot, has not and will not actually be able to solve the problem of Greece. Fundamental error which is costing the reputation of the EU dear and which will continue to do so. The crunch has steadily become more and more pressing and necessary and more and more difficuot to cover up and sustain. Therefore we are coming nearer and nearer to the crunch. Greece will fall out of the EU. The reality of the abject Insolvency and financial collapse of Greece is staring the EU in the face. The EU can still currently cover this up with other peoples hard earned money. But the end of this is clearly approaching.

There is going to be an almighty row when this nonsense collapses back onto the EU. Serious questions are going to be asked at every level, and it is difficult to gauge how severe the effects will be in the European Community and within the worldwide markets. Could be a real gane changer the senior EU politicians are going to be in real difficulty. Just a question of time.

[All that jazz]

It's all part of the grand masterplan by Merkel and Hollande to make Greece's situation look so utterly ridiculous and out of control that they can justify rubber-stamping their new European Government pet project overnight which they'll claim was urgently needed in order to save the Euro.

[Driller]

Steffan said:

Driller said:

Digga said:

Driller said:

Ironically Steffan, the value and persistence of your predictions are much like the Greek economy: Worthless but with a seemingly endless longevity

I'm not so sure.

I know Digga, you've been telling me for the last 4 years every time I doubt one of Steffan's myriad Greece style "predictions".

I like the word"Myriad" it's rather like the word "Plethora" covers an undisclosed multitude of sins. I like the phrase "Multitude of Sins" almost as well, that being a pretty fair description of my approach to life. If the was a Sin about try it, if not make one happen!

Despite all the excesses and daft tricks, crashes, disasters and so on that involved and the marriages and relationships and a manic lifestyle for pushing 70 years my constitution is still running ok(ish) despite the many many warnings of dire and permanent consequences! An awful lot of Doctors have predicted my demise over many years. Somewhat worne around the edges and perhaps not quite so lunatic in life I am still here so far? Worked for me, at least so far!.

On the subject of the Thread from the start I have sought to establish the inevitability of the fall out of Greece from the EU. From the start o this thread I have equally, always recognised the strength that the QE printing presses of the EU give to the EU, (short term), to waste Billions of Euros as they will. Five years of the EU dishonestly throwing, hundreds of Billions of Euros, away by tye shedload, all provided unwittingly by the EU taxpayers, whilst the EU pretend all is well and that there are no problems has enabled their forelorn attempt to retain Greece within the EU and has delayed the inevitable fallout of Greece from the EU year upon year.

What the EU cannot do and have not done, over those five years of subsidy to Greece, all bought with the unwitting EU taxpayers hard earned money, is to actually effect the slightest improvement within the economy of Greece. That is because using crooked money to sustain an economic impossibility is much easier than actually addressing the underlying economic problems. Common place in Ponzi schemes, which regrettably is now what this affair has become. Crooked!

The EU can and are dishonestly misrepresenting the situation. The EU cannot, has not and will not actually be able to solve the problem of Greece. Fundamental error which is costing the reputation of the EU dear and which will continue to do so. The crunch has steadily become more and more pressing and necessary and more and more difficuot to cover up and sustain. Therefore we are coming nearer and nearer to the crunch. Greece will fall out of the EU. The reality of the abject Insolvency and financial collapse of Greece is staring the EU in the face. The EU can still currently cover this up with other peoples hard earned money. But the end of this is clearly approaching.

There is going to be an almighty row when this nonsense collapses back onto the EU. Serious questions are going to be asked at every level, and it is difficult to gauge how severe the effects will be in the European Community and within the worldwide markets. Could be a real gane changer the senior EU politicians are going to be in real difficulty.

Ooh! Semantics!

Seriously though Steffan (and Digga), the problem is that we seem to have been approaching the "doom" point for so long now, it's like an asymptote: we seem to get closer and closer without ever actually, finally reaching the tipping point.

Each proclamation then seems less and less credible, as does the proclaimer

Steffan said:

Just a question of time.

This is precisely what I mean and I can't quite believe you really just said that

[Steffan]

Driller said:

Steffan said:

Driller said:

Digga said:

Driller said:

Ironically Steffan, the value and persistence of your predictions are much like the Greek economy: Worthless but with a seemingly endless longevity

I'm not so sure.

I know Digga, you've been telling me for the last 4 years every time I doubt one of Steffan's myriad Greece style "predictions".

I like the word"Myriad" it's rather like the word "Plethora" covers an undisclosed multitude of sins. I like the phrase "Multitude of Sins" almost as well, that being a pretty fair description of my approach to life. If the was a Sin about try it, if not make one happen!

Despite all the excesses and daft tricks, crashes, disasters and so on that involved and the marriages and relationships and a manic lifestyle for pushing 70 years my constitution is still running ok(ish) despite the many many warnings of dire and permanent consequences! An awful lot of Doctors have predicted my demise over many years. Somewhat worne around the edges and perhaps not quite so lunatic in life I am still here so far? Worked for me, at least so far!.

On the subject of the Thread from the start I have sought to establish the inevitability of the fall out of Greece from the EU. From the start o this thread I have equally, always recognised the strength that the QE printing presses of the EU give to the EU, (short term), to waste Billions of Euros as they will. Five years of the EU dishonestly throwing, hundreds of Billions of Euros, away by tye shedload, all provided unwittingly by the EU taxpayers, whilst the EU pretend all is well and that there are no problems has enabled their forelorn attempt to retain Greece within the EU and has delayed the inevitable fallout of Greece from the EU year upon year.

What the EU cannot do and have not done, over those five years of subsidy to Greece, all bought with the unwitting EU taxpayers hard earned money, is to actually effect the slightest improvement within the economy of Greece. That is because using crooked money to sustain an economic impossibility is much easier than actually addressing the underlying economic problems. Common place in Ponzi schemes, which regrettably is now what this affair has become. Crooked!

The EU can and are dishonestly misrepresenting the situation. The EU cannot, has not and will not actually be able to solve the problem of Greece. Fundamental error which is costing the reputation of the EU dear and which will continue to do so. The crunch has steadily become more and more pressing and necessary and more and more difficuot to cover up and sustain. Therefore we are coming nearer and nearer to the crunch. Greece will fall out of the EU. The reality of the abject Insolvency and financial collapse of Greece is staring the EU in the face. The EU can still currently cover this up with other peoples hard earned money. But the end of this is clearly approaching.

There is going to be an almighty row when this nonsense collapses back onto the EU. Serious questions are going to be asked at every level, and it is difficult to gauge how severe the effects will be in the European Community and within the worldwide markets. Could be a real gane changer the senior EU politicians are going to be in real difficulty.

Ooh! Semantics!

Seriously though Steffan (and Digga), the problem is that we seem to have been approaching the "doom" point for so long now, it's like an asymptote: we seem to get closer and closer without ever actually, finally reaching the tipping point.

Each proclamation then seems less and less credible, as does the proclaimer

Steffan said:

Just a question of time.

This is precisely what I mean and I can't quite believe you really just said that

Seems a fairly innocuous statement to me. But then, again I wrote it!

No one can give an accurate date for this impending financial disaster to collapse inward. There has never been such a madcap and dishonest scheme propagated within the European Continent at any time in the past. Thereore there is no directly relevant earlier event to which this can be compared. Predictions therefore are very challenging indeed.

Hundreds and Hundreds of Billions of QE Euros are being thrown away on a completely, self defeating dream, of the EU, that the EU is actually capable of managing the impossible economically, by throwing Billions at a small country. Regrettably all the EU is actually doing is throwing other peoples hard earned money away.

The scheme has been running for five years and the economy of Greece has been failing steadily year on year, year after year for more than five years. The point of the abject financial collapse of Greece is rapidly approaching. If you can find any credible commentator or observer of this nonsense who actually believes the plan of the EU is workable and that the economy of Greece is capable of sustaining Greece within the EU I would be most interested to hear their arguments. I cannot find any. There seems to me to be virtually unanimous agreement across the media that this latest "Solution" is a crackpot nonsense and bound to end with Greece leaving the EU?

Since the IMF, for so long the partners of the EU in this debacle, are now refusing to be involved in any further loans to Greece untill the existing loans are dramatically reduced and the Economy of Greece can be shown to be actually in recovery , the EU has already lost the goodwill of its major partner in this nonsense. The EU and Ms Merkel in particular are dead set against such a write off. But Greece cannot actually afford to repay either the existing debts or the further debts that the EU have agreed to give to them. It is a complete nonsense.

In consequence I really honestly believe that this is now a matter of time. Greece has already had five years of continuous subsidy and bail outs and in reality these are going to become handouts because Greece cannot afford either the loans or the interest on the loans. These loans will never be repaid to the EU. The only way Greece can afford to repay the interest currenly due is, literally if the EU lends it to them. But Greece is visibly already bankrupt. Lending more and more to a bankrupt entity is economic nonsense. The whole nonsence has become a busted flush. Greece is going to fail but the timing depends upon unknown factors . But the abdolute certainty of failure is totally apparent.

[Welshbeef]

From a purely capitist point of view how can an individual who say lives in the UK maximise his/her returns due to this situation and potential end game cluster fk?

With every loser there are winners.

[Steffan]

Welshbeef said:

From a purely capitist point of view how can an individual who say lives in the UK maximise his/her returns due to this situation and potential end game cluster fk?

With every loser there are winners.

Interesting question. There are a number of market watchers on here that might offer suggestions. Mermaid being the one that springs to mind. Always remember the old adages "Investments fall as well as rise", "All at your own risk", " No guantee is offered"cand so on. No guarantee of success. But some people are successful!!

Personally I believe the Euro will weaken steadily over the time as this nonsense continues to struggle on. Primarily because QE is being used for entirely the wrong reasons. Far from being a capital investment seeking very long term returns over decades of investment, which is my view of the correct use of QE, the EU is using this as fuel on the bonfire of economic stupidity. Not likely to bring sucess!

In addition the economic indicators in many of the Eurozone countries are not looking good. From personal observation Italy is visibly failing. France as DJRC suggested is toast. Spain and Portugal are still in recovery. Germany is bullish as ever but Germany cannot pull all the loads! On balance that again suggests to me that the Euro will be weakening steadily.

However Mr Draghi has control of the printing presses and the EU may try to boost the Euro with judicious additional QE? I think that in all the circumstances that would be further madness but the EU have already shown throwing money away on a dream is their preferred economic strategy. They may yet extend that dream.

Obviously all at your personal risk and you should seek the advice of a financial professional you can trust. If you do find such an individual could you please let us all know who it is because in over 50 years of business I have yet to meet such a paragon of virtue. In reality it is entirely up to you!

[Steffan]

Just spotted an interesting and slightly unusual article about the challenges facing the EU/Eurozone on the BBC which is worth reading I think. Not by Robert Reston which may, or may not commend it further

See: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33731028

[DJRC]

Define "Doom"...

The enduring trouble of this thread is that the vast majority of people on it have neither the involvement nor the consequence of whatever the Euro does or the powers that be in the Eurozone decide to do. Beyond some nebulous notion of loss of sovereignty or something or faux worry about some such.

Doom is the pig. This thread is the chicken.

[RYH64E]

Steffan said:

Personally I believe the Euro will weaken steadily over the time as this nonsense continues to struggle on.

For many in the EZ a steadily weakening euro is a very good thing, it makes exporters more competitive and discourages imports. If you look back to pre-euro days most of the European currencies weakened steadily and consistently, the difference today is that Germany benefits as well.

[turbobloke]

RYH64E said:

Steffan said:

Personally I believe the Euro will weaken steadily over the time as this nonsense continues to struggle on.

For many in the EZ a steadily weakening euro is a very good thing, it makes exporters more competitive and discourages imports. If you look back to pre-euro days most of the European currencies weakened steadily and consistently, the difference today is that Germany benefits as well.

OK, so at what point will a Soros, or the Soros, step in and kill it as it falls apart?

[DJRC]

When and if the SNB decide to stop supporting it. The formal peg is no longer there but if summer 2011 returns then another peg may return and the last time Soros and co tried to test them the SNB stopped the attacks within seconds.