Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Gargamel]

DJRC said:

When and if the SNB decide to stop supporting it. The formal peg is no longer there but if summer 2011 returns then another peg may return and the last time Soros and co tried to test them the SNB stopped the attacks within seconds.

Did you see the losses they incurred as a result.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33729410

Not sure how often the Swiss will want to chuck £33bn away on propping up the Euro.

[Huntsman]

Did anybody else read this https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eus-juncker-expe... and wonder if it might all fall apart in August?

[maffski]

Huntsman said:

Did anybody else read this https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/eus-juncker-expe... and wonder if it might all fall apart in August?

At least it was nice and honest,

Jean-Claude Juncker said:

Hopefully we'll give the can a good hard thwack by the 20th. Otherwise I'll have to arrange for a little tap so we can line up to really belt it.

[turbobloke]

[arguti]

DJRC said:

When and if the SNB decide to stop supporting it. The formal peg is no longer there but if summer 2011 returns then another peg may return and the last time Soros and co tried to test them the SNB stopped the attacks within seconds.

I am still long on CHF, wish I had switched when they "abandoned" the peg earlier this year and then re-bought now.

(If I had, I would be posting on the Classic Ferrari section of PH!)

[Digga]

DJRC said:

The enduring trouble of this thread is that the vast majority of people on it have neither the involvement nor the consequence of whatever the Euro does or the powers that be in the Eurozone decide to do. Beyond some nebulous notion of loss of sovereignty or something or faux worry about some such.

Doom is the pig. This thread is the chicken.

I think Driller implying that ther is no change in the situation on the ground in Greeece is disingenuous. He seems niether to have ready nor commented on either of the links I posted yesterday. Anyone who know the country realises there has been huge and increasing pain on the ground and, that the rates of increase is climbing.

RYH64E said:

For many in the EZ a steadily weakening euro is a very good thing, it makes exporters more competitive and discourages imports. If you look back to pre-euro days most of the European currencies weakened steadily and consistently, the difference today is that Germany benefits as well.

Agreed. The EUR has worked out very nicely for German exports over the currency's time. Any post-Grexit appreciation would be uncomfortable.

[DJRC]

Gargamel said:

DJRC said:

When and if the SNB decide to stop supporting it. The formal peg is no longer there but if summer 2011 returns then another peg may return and the last time Soros and co tried to test them the SNB stopped the attacks within seconds.

Did you see the losses they incurred as a result.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33729410

Not sure how often the Swiss will want to chuck £33bn away on propping up the Euro.

Garg - have you missed the last 2 or 3 posts I made about that? The Swiss didn't lost a penny, cent or chuff. Not a damn sausage.

[DJRC]

arguti said:

DJRC said:

When and if the SNB decide to stop supporting it. The formal peg is no longer there but if summer 2011 returns then another peg may return and the last time Soros and co tried to test them the SNB stopped the attacks within seconds.

I am still long on CHF, wish I had switched when they "abandoned" the peg earlier this year and then re-bought now.

(If I had, I would be posting on the Classic Ferrari section of PH!)

I *bought* a classic Ferrari during those crazy months!

And then sold it right before 308 values doubled Which only proves I suppose that I know jack st!

[Gargamel]

DJRC said:

Garg - have you missed the last 2 or 3 posts I made about that? The Swiss didn't lost a penny, cent or chuff. Not a damn sausage.

I think I must have, not sure I am following. appreciate they are reporting a paper loss, and exports are down and tourism is down. So not sure where the "win" is coming from.


I recognise they may have had trades in places to hedge some exposure, but the banks own interim report says in black and white £33bn in the red IYSWIM

[Driller]

DJRC said:

The enduring trouble of this thread is that the vast majority of people on it have neither the involvement nor the consequence of whatever the Euro does or the powers that be in the Eurozone decide to do. Beyond some nebulous notion of loss of sovereignty or something or faux worry about some such.

Doom is the pig. This thread is the chicken.

That is brilliant and insightful (even poetic) and certainly right to the point with no bullst. More posts like this needed here!

Digga said:

I think Driller implying that ther is no change in the situation on the ground in Greeece is disingenuous. He seems niether to have ready nor commented on either of the links I posted yesterday. Anyone who know the country realises there has been huge and increasing pain on the ground and, that the rates of increase is climbing.

You're right, I didn't bother reading them but can you really blame me? The boy has lost his voice, he's been shouting lecturing for so long, and still the wolf is nowhere to be seen. They keep saying "there it is, over the brow of the hill!" shortly followed by "oh, no it wasn't".

In the context the word disingenuous better describes all the incessant, anxious predictions of impending disaster for all the Eurozone and beyond when it is clear to all and sundry that nothing of the sort has happened or is happening actually on the ground where it counts, only in a tizzy in discussions behind the bike sheds.

Yes, alright, I'll give you, it looks like Greece may eventually have to default and leave the Euro and go back to its own currency and probably settle down with tourism propping up its economy at some point but, good grief! wasn't that always the way? They'll find a way, it'll be Greece + the Drachma MkII instead of Greece plus the Euro.

And then again, since they keep making it up as they go along, maybe it'll stay, who knows? Seriously, do people have that much self belief in their ability to read the tealeaves that they can speak so definitively? Sorry but it seems rather arrogant to me and yes maybe a little disingenuous now you come to mention it.

This topic seems to have become more about some folk trying to prove that their forecasts can come true (too late!) than the real life situation. Otherwise they would have long ago acknowledged that predictions made in the past just haven't come to anything and certainly not in the immediate time frame so insisted upon.

But not only does this not happen but yet more prophecies of imminent happenings always immediately follow!

I get the discussion, I really do, it's fascinating and a little worrying. It's the repeated, unquestioning but always ultimately mistaken attempts to say what's going to happen next week that I object to.

It's tedious that I feel compelled to repeat these stuck-record comments but they're in reaction to a stuck-record point of view.

[Digga]

Driller said:

It's tedious that I feel compelled to repeat these stuck-record comments but they're in reaction to a stuck-record point of view.

I don't think there's a single person on here whose view has not altered as fact emerge. What is now fairly clear is that the Euro is going to be kept going as long as possible and that the Greek can is going to be kicked down the road irrespective of whether that suits the country.

The only thing that doesn't seem to change is your aggravation and unhappiness. And I'm not here to fix that.

[andy-xr]

We're booking a holiday to Greece for late October, looks to be some great deals on at the minute. Whatever currency they have then I think will be determined in about a months time.

[Driller]

Digga said:

don't think there's a single person on here whose view has not altered as fact emerge.

Really?

Edited by Driller on Wednesday 5th August 15:32

[EskimoArapaho]

Driller said:

Digga said:

don't think there's a single person on here whose view has not altered as fact emerge.

Really?

This thread (and its forebears) is a bit like Groundhog Day. With added circle jerking.

I'm fairly convinced that Steffan has a Word macro that cuts-n-pastes phrases to generate his never-ending supply of "any person in their right mind cannot see how..." comments.

[Driller]

Put it this way: I've always admitted on here knowing next to nothing about the markets, finance, the economy etc compared to those really in the know.

And yet, right from the start I knew that all the constant doom mongering and predictions of the PIIGS all getting swine flu and dying (have a look, it's all there and keeps coming), the euro imploding and Greece disappearing up its own arse 4,3,2,1 years ago was nonsense and nothing to do with reality. Maybe something might be happening with Greece right now, maybe not, there's just not enough evidence (but then who can you believe in the news?) we'll see, but by far and away, all of the comments on all of this of "it's now", "very soon", "imminent!" have come to nothing. Zero.

Now that means one of three things. Either:

1) I'm a far more intuitive and astute financial analyst than the person/people making these predications of imminent disaster.

or

2) They are knowingly exagerating for effect or to stir up something.

or

3) They have a bee in their bonnet about the Euro and Europe and are saying these things hoping that they will come true.


I would strongly suggest the odds are it's not the first one

I have no idea what the reason for the second one would be.

For the third, fair enough to dislike the political nonesense of Europe but making desperate predictions on an internet forum is a strange way to show it!

I'm just interested in telling and seeing the truth not rhetoric.

Edited by Driller on Wednesday 5th August 15:36

[Gargamel]

Driller said:

Put it this way: I've always admitted on here knowing next to nothing about the markets, finance, the economy etc compared to those really in the know.

And yet, right from the start I knew that all the constant doom mongering and predictions of the PIIGS all getting swine flu and dying (have a look, it's all there and keeps coming), the euro imploding and Greece disappearing up its own arse 4,3,2,1 years ago was nonsense and nothing to do with reality. Maybe something might be happening with Greece right now, maybe not, there's just not enough evidence (but then who can you believe in the news?) we'll see, but by far and away, all of the comments on all of this of "it's now", "very soon", "imminent!" have come to nothing. Zero.

Now that means one of three things. Either:

1) I'm a far more intuitive and astute financial analyst than the person/people making these predications of imminent disaster.

or

2) They are knowingly exagerating for effect or to stir up something.

or

3) They have a bee in their bonnet about the Euro and Europe and are saying these things hoping that they will come true.


I would strongly suggest the odds are it's not the first one

I have no idea what the reason for the second one would be.

For the third, fair enough to dislike the political nonesense of Europe but making desperate predictions on an internet forum is a strange way to show it!

I'm just interested in telling and seeing the truth not rhetoric.

Edited by Driller on Wednesday 5th August 15:36

For the record I am number 3.

I was deeply unhappy at any suggestion the UK should adopt the Euro back in the day, and I remain convinced that the whole edifice is unworkable in its current form over the long term - and I actively look for data that supports my view.

Plus I like the Gore Vidal quote. " it is not enough to succeed, others must fail" which I will admit is a terribly blinkered approach to global economics...


However Driller you have failed to answer the question. Do you think the Greek's will repay the debt, and why will bail out three work when one and two did not?

[Axionknight]

Third times the charm, right?

[AstonZagato]

I don't think it is any of those really.

I believe it is more that, from an economic point of view, they are 100% right. Greece cannot survive in the Euro. However, the economics are only one part of the picture. The other part are the politics. The political will to continue to mount a defence of Greece's position in the Euro would appear to have no limits on either the Greek or the Eurozone side.

Cold logic may indicate that Greece should drop from the Euro but that isn't driving the process. It may be that finally the numbers become too gargantuan for the issue to be fudged again or the can kicked far enough. We might even be at that point now. But the aggregate will to defy economic logic is immeasurably large currently.

[Digga]

If feel the same way - the fate of Greece is being considered by the EU on a purely political level. They are not yet ready to cede any of their empire.

On the ground in Greece - and this now is the point of my main concern, rather than the EU or Euro itself - the pain is clear. It is not a pleasant thing to witness a country being eviscerated in this manner. The plain, stark facts painted by the numbers are quite chilling for anyone with a degree of humanitarian sympathy.

My thoughts are if they can let this happen to a whole country - an entire economy - what other sacrifices might the EU be prepared to offer to the great god of empire further down the line?

[Steffan]

Digga said:

If feel the same way - the fate of Greece is being considered by the EU on a purely political level. They are not yet ready to cede any of their empire.

On the ground in Greece - and this now is the point of my main concern, rather than the EU or Euro itself - the pain is clear. It is not a pleasant thing to witness a country being eviscerated in this manner. The plain, stark facts painted by the numbers are quite chilling for anyone with a degree of humanitarian sympathy.

My thoughts are if they can let this happen to a whole country - an entire economy - what other sacrifices might the EU be prepared to offer to the great god of empire further down the line?

Ain't That the Truth.

I entirely accept that the political machinations of the EU in seeking to retain Greece within a totally unaffordable currency union that the economy of Greece can never afford, has replaced the little economic common sense that once remained within the EU. Economic madnness and outright dishonesty are bad bedfellows which will inevitabky result in the collapse of Greece and huge consequences, out of all proprtion to the size of debt involved, to the EU itself.

Ridiculous nonsense solutions chasing economic raibows have taken over from reasonable and sensible economic policies within the EU. The matter has become a complete nonsense and regrettably must result in the total failure of five years of subsidy and handouts producing nothing of value to either Greece or the EU. Greece will fail because the economy of Greece is steadily failing to improve in any way whatsoever even with five years of subsidy. Not a recoverable position.

As in the Emperors clothes. The king being very much in the altogether with the EU in Greece fiddling the figures to get a little longer run for this ridiculous tripe. No realistic possibility of economic recovery for Greece. Therefore the crunch is coming. Greece will fall out of the situation and then the EU will pay the price of this madness. There are going to be some very unhappy EU taxpayers when the losses are totalled up and payment is required from the solvent EU nations. Could be a real challenge for the EU. No other Solutijion.