Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Driller]

Number 2. Definitely number 2.

Are you aware that you use the same phrase "emperor's new clothes" and other dogma and rhetoric multiple times every single time you post? Really starting to think this whole thing has been a wind up from the start now.

Edited by Driller on Wednesday 5th August 18:51

[Steffan]

Driller said:

Number 2. Definitely number 2.

No surely No 1 ? Definitely No 1.

[Driller]

Starting to wonder.

[Steffan]

Interesting suggestions in the Torygraph suggest greater write off, of Greek debt, required above the sums suggested by the IMF to the EU initially.

See http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11782...

I think actually Greece needs a total wipe out of debts to stand any chance of economic recovery. Generally true of insolvent entities. Realistically I would suggest the 400 Billion this has cost the lenders with the latest tranche included nothing is going to be repaid.

It does seem to me to be wholly implausible that there is in reality any possibility of any repayment of debt by Greece. Five years of subsidy and recovery program have resulted in Greece being woefully less economically secure than Greece was five years ago. It's not going to work!

[RYH64E]

AstonZagato said:

However, the economics are only one part of the picture. The other part are the politics.

Indeed so, and this is an unfortunate fact that those in favour of the UK leaving the EU should take into account. Forget 'they need us more than we need them', forget 'they will negotiate a mutually beneficial trade deal', and think politics. Just because something is sensible doesn't mean that it's inevitable.

[Driller]

Gargamel said:

For the record I am number 3.

I was deeply unhappy at any suggestion the UK should adopt the Euro back in the day, and I remain convinced that the whole edifice is unworkable in its current form over the long term - and I actively look for data that supports my view.

Plus I like the Gore Vidal quote. " it is not enough to succeed, others must fail" which I will admit is a terribly blinkered approach to global economics...


However Driller you have failed to answer the question. Do you think the Greek's will repay the debt, and why will bail out three work when one and two did not?

Ah no, I don't see (or feel rather) how Greece can possibly pay it back. But as clearly seems to be the case the so called "financial rules" have nothing to do with this particular game which is a political one.

So either Greece will not pay and they'll (Europe, IMF etc) fiddle it to make it look like they have and Greece will keep the Euro or Greece will still not pay and they'll refuse to fiddle it and they'll go back to the Drachma.

No sweat.

[Driller]

Gargamel said:

For the record I am number 3.

I was deeply unhappy at any suggestion the UK should adopt the Euro back in the day, and I remain convinced that the whole edifice is unworkable in its current form over the long term - and I actively look for data that supports my view.

Plus I like the Gore Vidal quote. " it is not enough to succeed, others must fail" which I will admit is a terribly blinkered approach to global economics...


However Driller you have failed to answer the question. Do you think the Greek's will repay the debt, and why will bail out three work when one and two did not?

Ah no, I don't see (or feel rather) how Greece can possibly pay it back. But as clearly seems to be the case the so called "financial rules" have nothing to do with this particular game which is a political one.

So either Greece will not pay and they'll (Europe, IMF etc) fiddle it to make it look like they have and Greece will keep the Euro or Greece will still not pay and they'll refuse to fiddle it and they'll go back to the Drachma.

No sweat.

[Art0ir]

I just stumbled upon this absolute gem from 2010. I think you'll all enjoy it.

https://youtu.be/I5QwKEwo4Bc

[davepoth]

Driller said:

Ah no, I don't see (or feel rather) how Greece can possibly pay it back. But as clearly seems to be the case the so called "financial rules" have nothing to do with this particular game which is a political one.

So either Greece will not pay and they'll (Europe, IMF etc) fiddle it to make it look like they have and Greece will keep the Euro or Greece will still not pay and they'll refuse to fiddle it and they'll go back to the Drachma.

No sweat.

And that's pretty much entirely why Greece is still in the Euro. The only part of this that wasn't foreseen right back at Vol.1 was exactly how far the Eurozone would go to keep Greece in the club even when they are economically so far from the club that they're already eating a kebab on the night bus.

I may have taken that metaphor a little too far.

[Driller]

Art0ir said:

I just stumbled upon this absolute gem from 2010. I think you'll all enjoy it.

https://youtu.be/I5QwKEwo4Bc

That's just beautiful, thank you!

davepoth said:

And that's pretty much entirely why Greece is still in the Euro. The only part of this that wasn't foreseen right back at Vol.1 was exactly how far the Eurozone would go to keep Greece in the club even when they are economically so far from the club that they're already eating a kebab on the night bus.

I may have taken that metaphor a little too far.

[Driller]

Art0ir said:

I just stumbled upon this absolute gem from 2010. I think you'll all enjoy it.

https://youtu.be/I5QwKEwo4Bc

Out of interest can anyone confirm if those figures are correct or are there handfulls of artistic licence going on?

[Digga]

Driller said:

Art0ir said:

I just stumbled upon this absolute gem from 2010. I think you'll all enjoy it.

https://youtu.be/I5QwKEwo4Bc

Out of interest can anyone confirm if those figures are correct or are there handfulls of artistic licence going on?

I remember this from back then in 2010. It is very amusing (blackly I guess, in respect of what it meant for ordinary people in the EU) and IIRC at that time the numbers were pretty much right and, in essence, it is not far from the truth.

[Driller]

Thanks for the info.

If it is the truth then it goes some way to explaining what a ballsup the whole thing is and how you can't possibly expect standard rules to apply.

[Digga]

Driller said:

Thanks for the info.

If it is the truth then it goes some way to explaining what a ballsup the whole thing is and how you can't possibly expect standard rules to apply.

I think you (and they) are correct in that regard; it's a bit like the old joke about owing the bank a small amount being your problem, whereas owing them a jeffing huge amount becomes their problem.

As they joked in that sketch, money should never have been loaned to Greece who, equally (because this is not like private debt - there are supposed to be adults in charge) should never have borrowed it in the first place....

What is inevitable is what must happen to Greece. Look at the plummeting tax-take, business activity and employment and it tells you the situation is not just unsustainable but also that it is getting worse.

[RYH64E]

Even if Greece were to exit the Eurozone I don't think that it would be fatal for the Euro, I think that the currency is too well established to disappear. I could see a situation where some peripheral members reverted to their national currencies, but I'd be very surprised if the Euro itself came to an end.

[turbobloke]

RYH64E said:

Even if Greece were to exit the Eurozone I don't think that it would be fatal for the Euro, I think that the currency is too well established to disappear. I could see a situation where some peripheral members reverted to their national currencies, but I'd be very surprised if the Euro itself came to an end.

Don't forget the Euro S^4 scenario.

Slide, Soros, SNB, Seeya.

[RYH64E]

Soros made a fortune when the GBP was forced to exit the ERM, but over 20 years later the GBP is still our currency and is going strong. Similarly, there was talk recently that a post-independence Scotland would have to 'exit the Sterling zone' and start using the Groat or something similar, I don't recall many commentators predicting the demise of the GBP as a consequence. Whatever many might like to think, I expect the Euro to outlast us all.

[Blib]

RYH64E said:

Even if Greece were to exit the Eurozone I don't think that it would be fatal for the Euro, I think that the currency is too well established to disappear. I could see a situation where some peripheral members reverted to their national currencies, but I'd be very surprised if the Euro itself came to an end.

If the euro is after all, merely a political construct, designed to bring together European states in one harmonious body, then, if 'peripheral' countries are forced to leave, surely it would have failed?

[Ridgemont]

RYH64E said:

Soros made a fortune when the GBP was forced to exit the ERM, but over 20 years later the GBP is still our currency and is going strong. Similarly, there was talk recently that a post-independence Scotland would have to 'exit the Sterling zone' and start using the Groat or something similar, I don't recall many commentators predicting the demise of the GBP as a consequence. Whatever many might like to think, I expect the Euro to outlast us all.

Very possibly, however half the populace of the Eurozone will be impoverished or unemployed. Still the Euro will have been adjudged to be a rip roaring success..

[andy43]

There is all this talk of recovery, of write offs and so on. Blame is laid at the door of the euro.
But pre EU Greece was a basket case. Sheep, yoghurt, olives and tourists. There was an article somewhere recently covering a Greek village that had basically reinvented itself with EU grants. Internet, new schools and bmws all round. Without the EU grants, they'd still be weaving yoghurt.
Euro or not, Greece is unworkable without its richer neighbours donations. Although once outside the euro a couple of weeks in Zante would be cheaper...