Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[RYH64E]

Blib said:

If the euro is after all, merely a political construct, designed to bring together European states in one harmonious body, then, if 'peripheral' countries are forced to leave, surely it would have failed?

Failed? If you're expecting the Euro to solve the problems of war, poverty and hunger then maybe it has failed, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

[maffski]

The trouble is, if Greece did leave and their new currency devalued (which would be the main advantage is leaving?) all finance and contracts with the outside world are in Euros.

No lender is going to be willing to just change over to the new currency, especially as they are probably lending borrowed money themselves.

[Blib]

RYH64E said:

Blib said:

If the euro is after all, merely a political construct, designed to bring together European states in one harmonious body, then, if 'peripheral' countries are forced to leave, surely it would have failed?

Failed? If you're expecting the Euro to solve the problems of war, poverty and hunger then maybe it has failed, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

I think you'll find that its architects did believe that the Euro would solve the very problems that you describe.

And if 'doing OK' describes what's going on in Greece and the other failing Euro states, then that is a very low bar indeed.

[Funkycoldribena]

Blib said:

RYH64E said:

Blib said:

If the euro is after all, merely a political construct, designed to bring together European states in one harmonious body, then, if 'peripheral' countries are forced to leave, surely it would have failed?

Failed? If you're expecting the Euro to solve the problems of war, poverty and hunger then maybe it has failed, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

I think you'll find that its architects did believe that the Euro would solve the very problems that you describe.

And if 'doing OK' describes what's going on in Greece and the other failing Euro states, then that is a very low bar indeed.

No,he means "Im doing ok out of it,sod everyone else".

[Esseesse]

Blib said:

RYH64E said:

Blib said:

If the euro is after all, merely a political construct, designed to bring together European states in one harmonious body, then, if 'peripheral' countries are forced to leave, surely it would have failed?

Failed? If you're expecting the Euro to solve the problems of war, poverty and hunger then maybe it has failed, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

I think you'll find that its architects did believe that the Euro would solve the very problems that you describe.

And if 'doing OK' describes what's going on in Greece and the other failing Euro states, then that is a very low bar indeed.

I thought it was widely known that the Euro would eventually be doomed to require further political integration, which was half the point.

[RYH64E]

Blib said:

RYH64E said:

Blib said:

If the euro is after all, merely a political construct, designed to bring together European states in one harmonious body, then, if 'peripheral' countries are forced to leave, surely it would have failed?

Failed? If you're expecting the Euro to solve the problems of war, poverty and hunger then maybe it has failed, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

I think you'll find that its architects did believe that the Euro would solve the very problems that you describe.

And if 'doing OK' describes what's going on in Greece and the other failing Euro states, then that is a very low bar indeed.

To repeat, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

[DJRC]

Funkycoldribena said:

Blib said:

RYH64E said:

Blib said:

If the euro is after all, merely a political construct, designed to bring together European states in one harmonious body, then, if 'peripheral' countries are forced to leave, surely it would have failed?

Failed? If you're expecting the Euro to solve the problems of war, poverty and hunger then maybe it has failed, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

I think you'll find that its architects did believe that the Euro would solve the very problems that you describe.

And if 'doing OK' describes what's going on in Greece and the other failing Euro states, then that is a very low bar indeed.

No,he means "Im doing ok out of it,sod everyone else".

? But for the majority of ppl who use it every day its done its job perfectly.

At the end of the day Greece was symbolically important form the political perspective. From the economic perspective nobody gives a rat fk about Greece. Why would they? Nobody has given a rat fk about Greece in 2000 yrs. Even the Germans only used it to play out paratroop tactics.

Greece can now be jettisoned from the Euro and not only would nobody blink twice, the value of the Euro would actually soar.

[Ridgemont]

RYH64E said:

To repeat, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

Er... How could it not do? The Eurozone GDP is $13trn. Your metric of 'success' is flawed.

[Ridgemont]

RYH64E said:

To repeat, however as a medium of exchange it's doing ok, imo.

Er... How could it not do? The Eurozone GDP is $13trn. Your metric of 'success' is flawed.

[Art0ir]

Digga said:

Driller said:

Art0ir said:

I just stumbled upon this absolute gem from 2010. I think you'll all enjoy it.

https://youtu.be/I5QwKEwo4Bc

Out of interest can anyone confirm if those figures are correct or are there handfulls of artistic licence going on?

I remember this from back then in 2010. It is very amusing (blackly I guess, in respect of what it meant for ordinary people in the EU) and IIRC at that time the numbers were pretty much right and, in essence, it is not far from the truth.

They have a number of videos on similar topics.

The Greek Economy

Also talks about the affect pushing them out of the Euro would have...

On Greek insolvency; "Brian put it this way, if Greece were a private company there'd be a fire there early Saturday morning"

The Way Forward for Europe

"A taxation system in Greece, of some sort, would be a start definitely."

G8 Summit on Greece

"Well let's imagine that Greece has an economy..."

The Cypriot Banking Crisis

European Economic History

[AstonZagato]

Baldrick: "What I want to know, Sir, is, before there was a Euro there were lots of different types of money that different people used. And now there's only one type of money that the foreign people use. And what I want to know is, how did we get from one state of affairs to the other state of affairs"

Blackadder: "Baldrick. Do you mean, how did the Euro start?"

Baldrick: "Yes Sir"

Blackadder: "Well, you see Baldrick, back in the 1980s there were many different countries all running their own finances and using different types of money. On one side you had the major economies of France , Belgium , Holland and Germany , and on the other, the weaker nations of Spain , Greece , Ireland , Italy and Portugal . They got together and decided that it would be much easier for everyone if they could all use the same money, have one Central Bank, and belong to one large club where everyone would be happy. This meant that there could never be a situation whereby financial meltdown would lead to social unrest, wars and crises".

Baldrick: "But this is sort of a crisis, isn't it, Sir?".

Blackadder: "That's right Baldrick. You see, there was only one slight flaw in the plan".

Baldrick: "What was that then, Sir?"

Blackadder: "It was bks".

[Walford]

maffski said:

The trouble is, if Greece did leave and their new currency devalued (which would be the main advantage is leaving?) all finance and contracts with the outside world are in Euros.

No lender is going to be willing to just change over to the new currency, especially as they are probably lending borrowed money themselves.

That they will never get back, none of this money going into Greece, can really be considered as a loan

Edited by Walford on Monday 10th August 22:15

[BlackLabel]

beeb said:

The Greek debt crisis has saved the German government some €100bn (£70bn; $109bn) in lower borrowing costs because investors have sought safety in German bonds, a study has found.

Even if Greece defaults on all its debt, Germany would still benefit, says the German IWH institute.

Greece is hoping to reach a third bailout agreement, worth up to €86bn, with its creditors this week.

Germany has funded €90bn so far and wants tough conditions for a new deal.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33845836

[davepoth]

RYH64E said:

Soros made a fortune when the GBP was forced to exit the ERM, but over 20 years later the GBP is still our currency and is going strong. Similarly, there was talk recently that a post-independence Scotland would have to 'exit the Sterling zone' and start using the Groat or something similar, I don't recall many commentators predicting the demise of the GBP as a consequence. Whatever many might like to think, I expect the Euro to outlast us all.

You're comparing apples with oranges there. Sterling would have remained as the UK's currency, but Scotland would have bought GBP from the UK to use as its own currency and keep the notional "Scottish Pound" at parity with the UK one. It would have been possible for currency speculators to have bet so heavily against the Scottish Pound that Scotland would not have enough money to keep their pound at parity, forcing them to use their own pound, or groat, or whatever, as it fell like a stone in value.

The Euro is effectively a Deustchmark in disguise. As you say, it'll be around for the long term, but whether it will still be a currency union of the size it is now is still up for discussion.

[911Gary]

The Greek leader emerges triumphant from the further bailout negotiations,seeming to indicate a further 86bn Euro of bailout funding hence avoiding Greek bankruptcy and Eurozone exit.......Perhaps its me but two questions how? and why? spring too mind.
This is only a simple pair of questions the detailed answers to which I would like to hear because I don't understand the implied "Logic" in the statements not in jest I really don't.
The only possibility of expalnation in reality is in the context perhaps of time an ever-shortening period of which may have been bought (well borrowed)
This scenario also is a lesson to the left as to how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer magnified during austerity due to increased borrowing and lower tier high risk interest rates on lending,in the Greek case now they have and continue to be asset stripped ad infinitum it would be beneficial surely to leave,as the Germans have earned more from them than they have lent them and will continue to do so.

[Blib]

Germany has profited 100billion euros by the Greek economic crisis.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/germany-pr...

[LongQ]

Blib said:

Germany has profited 100billion euros by the Greek economic crisis.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/germany-pr...

It's a funny old world these days ....


The population of Africa is predicted to rise by about 4 billion people in the next 100 years.

Will the NHS be able to cope?

I don't expect to be around to see it so should I care?

Will Cecil the lion's offspring attempt to make it to a European Wildlife park in order to double their life expectancy? (Or more than double it if they end up competing with another 4 billion humans .....)

[Art0ir]

Grexit

https://youtu.be/8Ue9ek9tTSg

[LongQ]

Art0ir said:

Grexit

https://youtu.be/8Ue9ek9tTSg

Excellent.

The Oz related piece that followed it (ref broadband roll out) left me laughing out loud.

They are aging well.

[anonymous-user]

I predict that the 2017 Greek Bailout will be a hard sell, but will scrape through, on the back of some credible promises by the new Greek Government..