Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Gargamel said:
I think we have largely conceded that there is a future for the Euro as a currency for the time being.
Interesting though that German are quick to threaten to withdraw funding for the project if they don't get there own way.
More interesting that other countries with a history of standing up to Germany are letting them.
The Greek shambles isn't over, just a question of how quickly they burn through the emergency funding.
In essence I think that is about right. The EU have bought yet more time for Greece to burn yet more Billions of Euros whilst totally failing to achieve the slightest improvement within the Greek economy. Tsiparis has achieved success short term in enabling the largesse to continue within Greece. Not for long!Interesting though that German are quick to threaten to withdraw funding for the project if they don't get there own way.
More interesting that other countries with a history of standing up to Germany are letting them.
The Greek shambles isn't over, just a question of how quickly they burn through the emergency funding.
There has been no recovery within the Greek economy in the last five years and complete failure of the Greek government to effect any economic improvements within Greece in that period whatsoever. Why woud Greece bother to impove when five years of subsidy has ensured Greece remain within the EU and can continue to pick up their weekly pay check to enable Greece to continue within the EU? There will be no recovery within Greece.
The real question now is how much longer can the EU keep this transparent pretence going? Less than six months I would suggest but I would be interested to hear the views of others. There are a number of matters already developing into uncontrolled nasties the current obvious one being the immigrant swathes attempting to the enter the EU to get on the gravy train. From all I can see it would seem that the EU are once again failing to deal with the problems.
Every day that goes by brings the referendum on the EU membership, promised by Cameron. in the UK closer. Again I suspect the EU will fail to deal effectively with the demands of Cameron, once we can actually find out what his demands are going to be in detail. Given that 4,000,000 voters supported UKIP at the last election, presumably all of these will vote against EU membership.?
In which case the conundrum that the new Labour leader now represents and the latest TUC attempts to tie together remaining within the EU only if their view of fair treatment for worrkers is achieved, it would seem to me that there is every chance the UK comes out of the EU whenever that referenda is enacted. Once again, what do others think?
It would seem an obvious call but I would anticipate
- EU cannot or will not agree to concessions to the UK (and or UK led coalition of malcontents in the EU)
- IF the UK then hld the referendum and vote OUT
- EU take the negotiation a whole lot more seriously and offer substantive concessions
- UK persuaded to stay in
Steffan, I disagree with a couple of things
I don't think six months is a realistic timetable anymore, I also think that Greece CAN recover economically or at least start to claw back ground lost in the last five years - can it get back to pre crisis levels, it will take a long time.
Greece can and will recover somewhat if the subsidies continue and if "whatever it takes" still holds true. After all if the markets truly believe that the EU will guarantee the debts of Greece there is no upper limit to the debt she can carry. 300bn or 1000bn makes no odds if you think the EU will NEVER let Greece fail.
As usual it is the politics of the thing that decide all, all economic sense went out the window years ago.
If the EU wont let Greece fail by clicking on more numbers and posting to Greece surely this will affect the value of the Euro at some stage?
If/when the UK leave and take our money out of the pot, there must be a stage when the EU runs out of euros or prints so much that the Euro is devalued.
If the euro is devalued then that will have an impact on the loans and repayment ability of Italy and France. As other posters have said it would have been better for the EU to cast aside Greece as its going to pull down the who Euro currency.
There is no question now in my mind that the UK will vote to leave the EU bearing in mind the migration issues in hand at present and the cost of belonging to the EU.
What did Merkal say yesterday that she would want fines would be imposed on members who did not comply with taking more immigrants. A nice directive from Herr Merkal on running her club which just adds more reasons to leave the EU.
If/when the UK leave and take our money out of the pot, there must be a stage when the EU runs out of euros or prints so much that the Euro is devalued.
If the euro is devalued then that will have an impact on the loans and repayment ability of Italy and France. As other posters have said it would have been better for the EU to cast aside Greece as its going to pull down the who Euro currency.
There is no question now in my mind that the UK will vote to leave the EU bearing in mind the migration issues in hand at present and the cost of belonging to the EU.
What did Merkal say yesterday that she would want fines would be imposed on members who did not comply with taking more immigrants. A nice directive from Herr Merkal on running her club which just adds more reasons to leave the EU.
Gargamel may well be right and it may well be that the latest Greek bailout by the EU, may last longer than my projected forecast of about six months. He may also be correct in that the EU may realise the risk of the UK actually pulling out of the EU, altogether, at the referendum promised by Cameron, to the UK electorate during the last election run up. That threat may well result in the UK leaving the EU, unless significant concessions are made to the UK by the EU in limiting the undesirable effects of the EU with all is largesse and gravy train fiddling upon the UK!
But I do think the consequences of the continuing and rising difficulties that are now becoming apparent across the EU, with very large numbers of refugees pouring onto the hapless islanders living in the Greek islands and right across Hungary, Austria and Macedonia are in themselves going to cause major ructions within the EU. To my mind there as been an increasing realisation across Nothern Europe that a very great deal of debt and very very risky loans to sovereign states tat are obviously insolvent are being promulgated by the EU. I think there are going to be a number of serious concerns raised amongst the Northern States within the EU, as to who is actually paying for all of this mess?
To my mind the unravelling of the fundamental probems that are currently being assuaged by the EU happily printing money and throwing money abou, is in fact, not sustainable. The day of reckoning is coming to the EU and the EU has no answer to these intractable problems. Even medium term, therefore, I can see major changes coming to the EU whether the EU likes it or not?
Greece is a a financial minnow which the EU can and has spun by using an utterly ficticious and theoretical, recovery cuckoon shroud. There can be no permanence in any of thiis! In consequece and ultimately Greece must fail economically and must fail to repay any of the € Billions that Greece have borrowed. The fiction my be supported short term but the end result will be a whacking great loss to the Sovereign states supporting the EU and €.
It is getting very interesting IMO with the fundamental, dishonesty, becoming ever more apparent and the inevitability of failure, ever more certain. Food for thought I suggest?
But I do think the consequences of the continuing and rising difficulties that are now becoming apparent across the EU, with very large numbers of refugees pouring onto the hapless islanders living in the Greek islands and right across Hungary, Austria and Macedonia are in themselves going to cause major ructions within the EU. To my mind there as been an increasing realisation across Nothern Europe that a very great deal of debt and very very risky loans to sovereign states tat are obviously insolvent are being promulgated by the EU. I think there are going to be a number of serious concerns raised amongst the Northern States within the EU, as to who is actually paying for all of this mess?
To my mind the unravelling of the fundamental probems that are currently being assuaged by the EU happily printing money and throwing money abou, is in fact, not sustainable. The day of reckoning is coming to the EU and the EU has no answer to these intractable problems. Even medium term, therefore, I can see major changes coming to the EU whether the EU likes it or not?
Greece is a a financial minnow which the EU can and has spun by using an utterly ficticious and theoretical, recovery cuckoon shroud. There can be no permanence in any of thiis! In consequece and ultimately Greece must fail economically and must fail to repay any of the € Billions that Greece have borrowed. The fiction my be supported short term but the end result will be a whacking great loss to the Sovereign states supporting the EU and €.
It is getting very interesting IMO with the fundamental, dishonesty, becoming ever more apparent and the inevitability of failure, ever more certain. Food for thought I suggest?
Whatever happens we're all going to be worse off in future due to money printing/inflation combos and/or capital controls like zirp/nirp and cyprus style account raids.
The main focus of anyone who sees the writing on the wall is how to preserve their wealth from this point on, rather than letting gov/central banks silently weeing it up the wall, then suddenly calling on everyone to pay for it further down the road.
There is no doubt at this point that the banks and governments will do what they want, either through incompetence or malice. The only truth is that they'll ask all of society in equal measure to foot the bill once they're done.
Good luck trying to figure out where is a good place to put wealth right now
The main focus of anyone who sees the writing on the wall is how to preserve their wealth from this point on, rather than letting gov/central banks silently weeing it up the wall, then suddenly calling on everyone to pay for it further down the road.
There is no doubt at this point that the banks and governments will do what they want, either through incompetence or malice. The only truth is that they'll ask all of society in equal measure to foot the bill once they're done.
Good luck trying to figure out where is a good place to put wealth right now
Axionknight said:
Indeed. Quite a surprise. I'm in Greece right now and the locals I've spoken to this morning seemed to suggest that regardless of the result nothing would really change. (Note; the two barmen last night and the bloke at breakfast do not consitite any form of reasonable sample)
Mr E said:
Axionknight said:
Indeed. Quite a surprise.I'm in Greece right now and the locals I've spoken to this morning seemed to suggest that regardless of the result nothing would really change. (Note; the two barmen last night and the bloke at breakfast do not consitite any form of reasonable sample)
This affair will roll on until the EU faces (or is forced to face?) the reality that five years of continuous subsidy from the EU to Greece have enabled Greece to pretend to be solvent and the EU to pretend that Greece is solvent when in fact Greece is totally insolvent and cannot repay and wil never these steadily growing debts.
What this expensive nonsence has totally failed to do is to actually achieve the slighest improvement within the economy of Greece? Nothing has improved within Greece whateever. Nothing will improve because the Greek nation has no intention of changing its ways and in direct consequence economic collapse will become inevitable.
It is actually quite cathartic to be observing this from a distance because one hell of a lot of EU taxpayers money is being thrown away by the EU and Greece in this nonsense. Question of time alone I am afraid. There has been no recovery in Greece and there will be no Greek recovery. A remarkably simple fraud as all the best Ponzi schemes are: dreadfull business and entirely the responsibility of the EU and Greece.
I just hope the promises of Cameron and Osborne hold to be good in the lack of cost to the UK? I do rather doubt that they will. Time will tell?
Steffan said:
There has been no recovery in Greece and there will be no Greek recovery. A remarkably simple fraud as all the best Ponzi schemes are
It's not just Greece, it's the entire Western world.Sit back and enjoy it I say. It's set in stone.
As I said above, the only thing you should worry yourself now is how to retain some of your wealth and wealth generation capabilities into the bleaker future... pontificating about how Greece will unfold is just a waste of your time
Invest that time in yourself instead
Steffan, I see that you are still trying to call what the EU have created and are calling a winning horse, a dead dog.
You still don't seem to get that they are the race organisers and have created the very class of event in which their filly runs, including the rules of said event (which they update regularly to suit the humour of their winner) as well as running their thoroughbred.
You have spent the last 5 years desperately trying to show that under the rules of other such events their horse cannot possibly win.
But they own it all.
It's their event. It's their horse. It's their rules.
It hasn't mattered what you've said and it won't matter what you say.
You still don't seem to get that they are the race organisers and have created the very class of event in which their filly runs, including the rules of said event (which they update regularly to suit the humour of their winner) as well as running their thoroughbred.
You have spent the last 5 years desperately trying to show that under the rules of other such events their horse cannot possibly win.
But they own it all.
It's their event. It's their horse. It's their rules.
It hasn't mattered what you've said and it won't matter what you say.
Driller said:
Steffan, I see that you are still trying to call what the EU have created and are calling a winning horse, a dead dog.
You still don't seem to get that they are the race organisers and have created the very class of event in which their filly runs, including the rules of said event (which they update regularly to suit the humour of their winner) as well as running their thoroughbred.
You have spent the last 5 years desperately trying to show that under the rules of other such events their horse cannot possibly win.
But they own it all.
It's their event. It's their horse. It's their rules.
It hasn't mattered what you've said and it won't matter what you say.
Unless the horse is injured in a way that makes it non-viable, either as a horse or, more likely perhaps, as a sporting beast.You still don't seem to get that they are the race organisers and have created the very class of event in which their filly runs, including the rules of said event (which they update regularly to suit the humour of their winner) as well as running their thoroughbred.
You have spent the last 5 years desperately trying to show that under the rules of other such events their horse cannot possibly win.
But they own it all.
It's their event. It's their horse. It's their rules.
It hasn't mattered what you've said and it won't matter what you say.
At that point the rules indicate a different outcome and the vets are called in.
Driller said:
Oh for heaven's sake 
Then they change the rules and their injured horse wins by default FFS!
I think you're right - they have been making the rules up as they go along. They are either clueless on how to govern/make new laws/deal with member states, or they have a hidden agenda.Then they change the rules and their injured horse wins by default FFS!
Either way, the future for the EU does look quite bleak.
LongQ said:
Unless the horse is injured in a way that makes it non-viable, either as a horse or, more likely perhaps, as a sporting beast.
At that point the rules indicate a different outcome and the vets are called in.
The EU could decide that their horse has 6 legs and wings if that's what it takes to win this particular race, it doesn't have to make sense to you, it's their race and their rules (if there are any rules). At that point the rules indicate a different outcome and the vets are called in.
The Euro will be around for as long as the EU want it to be, it's end is nothing like nigh.
Driller said:
chris watton said:
Either way, the future for the EU does look quite bleak.
It doesn't because they are working in an environment where they make the rules!RYH64E said:
The EU could decide that their horse has 6 legs and wings if that's what it takes to win this particular race, it doesn't have to make sense to you, it's their race and their rules (if there are any rules).
The Euro will be around for as long as the EU want it to be, it's end is nothing like nigh.
Surely in that case the end would be neigh.The Euro will be around for as long as the EU want it to be, it's end is nothing like nigh.
rovermorris999 said:
RYH64E said:
The EU could decide that their horse has 6 legs and wings if that's what it takes to win this particular race, it doesn't have to make sense to you, it's their race and their rules (if there are any rules).
The Euro will be around for as long as the EU want it to be, it's end is nothing like nigh.
Surely in that case the end would be neigh.The Euro will be around for as long as the EU want it to be, it's end is nothing like nigh.
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