Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Mr Whippy]

Driller said:

Mr Whippy said:

China is the shape of things to come elsewhere.

.

And that's a really specific reason why the end should be nigh for the Euro is it?

[Fawlty]God I can't stand it anymore, think I'll go and clean the roof or something[/Fawlty]

Well if you see a globalised world as one where pyramids are all feeding into each other (think pyramids into the page, so like a toblerone) with a common base, when a big chunk of the base falters, it puts enormous stress on the other areas of the base.

The end may not be nigh, but if China are devaluing their currency, you can bet the Euro will be devalued too.
So it may not end, but it'll be worth less without a doubt. I'd say I'd rather hold USD or GBP on the way down because the Euro will go first/next imo!

Dave

[Andy Zarse]

RYH64E said:

Just because the euro hasn't ended war, famine and death doesn't mean that it's failed, it's just a currency, a means of exchange, nothing more.

I quite like the euro, it's very convenient having a stash of cash that I can spend in Germany, France, Spain, Holland, Italy etc, all countries that I visit on a regular basis. Buying and selling in the same currency is also very convenient, I don't have to worry about currency fluctuations hitting my margins. Buying in USD and selling in GBP or EUR can be a major problem, no such worries in the Eurozone.

It may not have "failed" on your terms, but to be even-handed it has impoverished and destroyed the lives of tens of millions of people. Not what I would call rgis a huge success. Still, as long as you're alright who cares huh?

[Driller]

Andy Zarse said:

RYH64E said:

Just because the euro hasn't ended war, famine and death doesn't mean that it's failed, it's just a currency, a means of exchange, nothing more.

I quite like the euro, it's very convenient having a stash of cash that I can spend in Germany, France, Spain, Holland, Italy etc, all countries that I visit on a regular basis. Buying and selling in the same currency is also very convenient, I don't have to worry about currency fluctuations hitting my margins. Buying in USD and selling in GBP or EUR can be a major problem, no such worries in the Eurozone.

It may not have "failed" on your terms, but to be even-handed it has impoverished and destroyed the lives of tens of millions of people.

Aah, Andy, I had no idea you cared

[Gargamel]

Seen the drop today ?

Eurozone missed its inflation target, even with all that lovely funny munny swilling around.

S&P expect Eurozone to DOUBLE its QE stimulus within 12 months. Personally I cant see that, but one's thing for sure, the news is not getting any better for the Euro

[Andy Zarse]

Gargamel said:

S&P expect Eurozone to DOUBLE its QE stimulus within 12 months. Personally I cant see that...

Oh I can!

IMO there's little else left beyond QE other taking the interest rates further into negative territory (which actually is likely to be far more effective at stimulating the economy but brings with it its own particular terrors). Since the Fed didn't raise rates, and considering the poor figures across a whole swathe of Europe, then the current easing of EU1.3 TN is no more than a sticking plaster.

So if DJ Mario wants to keep the party jumping there's no alternative to playing MARRS "Pump up the volume" louder and louder until someone smashes his turntable...

[Esseesse]

Andy Zarse said:

Gargamel said:

S&P expect Eurozone to DOUBLE its QE stimulus within 12 months. Personally I cant see that...

Oh I can!

IMO there's little else left beyond QE other taking the interest rates further into negative territory (which actually is likely to be far more effective at stimulating the economy but brings with it its own particular terrors). Since the Fed didn't raise rates, and considering the poor figures across a whole swathe of Europe, then the current easing of EU1.3 TN is no more than a sticking plaster.

So if DJ Mario wants to keep the party jumping there's no alternative to playing MARRS "Pump up the volume" louder and louder until someone smashes his turntable...

It's time for a bear market or QE IMO. For the US too.

[mondeoman]

How much longer is this stagnation going to go on for?

[LongQ]

mondeoman said:

How much longer is this stagnation going to go on for?

Stagnation?
Bearnation?

Surely this could be classed as "Stability"" could it not? A much better word than "Stagnation" with all of its negative connotations.

We are always being told that "stability" is very desirable.

Banks should be Stable. Climate should be stable. The results of political activity should be stability. Etc.

So why do economists seem to seek something else?

Are we being sold a (rescue) pup?

[Digga]

LongQ said:

So why do economists seem to seek something else?

Harvard-Keynsiansim cannot work without "growth" that what all the clucking is about.

[LongQ]

Digga said:

LongQ said:

So why do economists seem to seek something else?

Harvard-Keynsiansim cannot work without "growth" that what all the clucking is about.

So instability is vital!

Yet we (humanity) constantly claims to be seeking stability, or so we are told.

One suspects that all human "progress" is less than it could be and occurs purely by chance.

[tumble dryer]

LongQ said:

Digga said:

LongQ said:

So why do economists seem to seek something else?

Harvard-Keynsiansim cannot work without "growth" that what all the clucking is about.

So instability is vital!

Yet we (humanity) constantly claims to be seeking stability, or so we are told.

One suspects that all human "progress" is less than it could be and occurs purely by chance.

Certainly for the political classes it is. Heaven forfend that we didn't 'need' them. (But that's for a different thread.)

[mondeoman]

No ideas then?

Ah well, keep on keeping on.

[tumble dryer]

mondeoman said:

No ideas then?

Ah well, keep on keeping on.

The thing is, where's the momentum coming from?

I don't see anything on the global horizon driving growth our way, some BRICS possibly but I think it would be fair to say 'the west' and probably a great deal of 'the east' is generally quietly depressed.

A shove is required to generate movement, but you get good shoves and bad shoves.

[Walford]

like all good Ponzi schemes they don't last forever

[Mr E]

Potentially interesting reading;
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/22/three...

[Driller]

Good God, "Three days to save the Euro" is even worse than "Is the end nigh for the Euro?".

[Digga]

Mr E said:

Potentially interesting reading;
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/22/three...

We all knew Schäuble was grandstanding and playing "bad cop" to the good cop of merkel and the handful of Eurocrats who actually control the Eurozone could never tolerate the departure of a currency member state.

tumble dryer said:

I don't see anything on the global horizon driving growth our way,

As for global growth, an interesting take: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-21/caterpill...

Edited by Digga on Thursday 22 October 12:44

[Gargamel]

Mr E said:

Potentially interesting reading;
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/22/three...

Thanks - good article

Anyone experienced Portuguese watchers out there ? I understand the Socialists have climbed into bed with the Communists and are makes plenty of anti austerity noises.

Anyone travelling/working out there, love to hear what is going on in more detail.

Feels like the coming problem.

[Digga]

Gargamel said:

Thanks - good article

Anyone experienced Portuguese watchers out there ? I understand the Socialists have climbed into bed with the Communists and are makes plenty of anti austerity noises.

Anyone travelling/working out there, love to hear what is going on in more detail.

Feels like the coming problem.

You read that Guardian article - they will be put back in their boxes in no uncertain terms. It's clear the Eurozone (and, to a lesser extent) the EU is run by a very small number of individuals with a very small number of nations - we can all guess which - taking the lead.

The tactics used to bully Greece can be wheeled out again, the whole good-cop-bad-cop routine, the mysterious leaks (<cough>Schäuble</cough>) of information, the propaganda. If you want in, you will have to cede to their demands, if you threaten to leave, you can be sure they will make the exit as difficult as possible because they no more want to see the Eurozone dismantled than they wish to relinquish any financial obligations in favour of the exiting nation.

[Andy Zarse]

Digga said:

Gargamel said:

Thanks - good article

Anyone experienced Portuguese watchers out there ? I understand the Socialists have climbed into bed with the Communists and are makes plenty of anti austerity noises.

Anyone travelling/working out there, love to hear what is going on in more detail.

Feels like the coming problem.

You read that Guardian article - they will be put back in their boxes in no uncertain terms. It's clear the Eurozone (and, to a lesser extent) the EU is run by a very small number of individuals with a very small number of nations - we can all guess which - taking the lead.

The tactics used to bully Greece can be wheeled out again, the whole good-cop-bad-cop routine, the mysterious leaks (<cough>Schäuble</cough>) of information, the propaganda. If you want in, you will have to cede to their demands, if you threaten to leave, you can be sure they will make the exit as difficult as possible because they no more want to see the Eurozone dismantled than they wish to relinquish any financial obligations in favour of the exiting nation.

Correct 100%. Schauble's boot boys will kick their leftwing teeth out, just like they did to poor old Zippy. Now there's a man who has zero credibility left after the shoeing he took in the summer.