Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Driller]

Andy Zarse said:

Digga said:

Gargamel said:

Thanks - good article

Anyone experienced Portuguese watchers out there ? I understand the Socialists have climbed into bed with the Communists and are makes plenty of anti austerity noises.

Anyone travelling/working out there, love to hear what is going on in more detail.

Feels like the coming problem.

You read that Guardian article - they will be put back in their boxes in no uncertain terms. It's clear the Eurozone (and, to a lesser extent) the EU is run by a very small number of individuals with a very small number of nations - we can all guess which - taking the lead.

The tactics used to bully Greece can be wheeled out again, the whole good-cop-bad-cop routine, the mysterious leaks (<cough>Schäuble</cough>) of information, the propaganda. If you want in, you will have to cede to their demands, if you threaten to leave, you can be sure they will make the exit as difficult as possible because they no more want to see the Eurozone dismantled than they wish to relinquish any financial obligations in favour of the exiting nation.

Correct 100%. Schauble's boot boys will kick their leftwing teeth out, just like they did to poor old Zippy. Now there's a man who has zero credibility left after the shoeing he took in the summer.

Really? Seems to me he was laughing all the way to the bailout.

[Digga]

Driller said:

Really? Seems to me he was laughing all the way to the bailout.

Genuine question; did you read and follow that Guardian article?

[Andy Zarse]

Driller said:

Andy Zarse said:

Digga said:

Gargamel said:

Thanks - good article

Anyone experienced Portuguese watchers out there ? I understand the Socialists have climbed into bed with the Communists and are makes plenty of anti austerity noises.

Anyone travelling/working out there, love to hear what is going on in more detail.

Feels like the coming problem.

You read that Guardian article - they will be put back in their boxes in no uncertain terms. It's clear the Eurozone (and, to a lesser extent) the EU is run by a very small number of individuals with a very small number of nations - we can all guess which - taking the lead.

The tactics used to bully Greece can be wheeled out again, the whole good-cop-bad-cop routine, the mysterious leaks (<cough>Schäuble</cough>) of information, the propaganda. If you want in, you will have to cede to their demands, if you threaten to leave, you can be sure they will make the exit as difficult as possible because they no more want to see the Eurozone dismantled than they wish to relinquish any financial obligations in favour of the exiting nation.

Correct 100%. Schauble's boot boys will kick their leftwing teeth out, just like they did to poor old Zippy. Now there's a man who has zero credibility left after the shoeing he took in the summer.

Really? Seems to me he was laughing all the way to the bailout.

You have got to be joking. Any smile on Tzippy's daft face was purely forced, and the most fake I've seen since Gordon...



The only time his smile seemed genuine was when he won the last general election, I suspect he couldn't believe the Greeks had been gullible enough to vote him in twice in twelve months.

[craig7l]

It still bubbles along then...?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/20/greec...

[The Don of Croy]

Is this topic still live? Where'd all the peeps go?

Just downloaded the HMRC rates of exchange (well, on Tuesday) and the euro has sunk to 1.4286 for December, weakest since August.

Will Syrian bombing make any difference?

[RYH64E]

The Don of Croy said:

Is this topic still live? Where'd all the peeps go?

Just downloaded the HMRC rates of exchange (well, on Tuesday) and the euro has sunk to 1.4286 for December, weakest since August.

Will Syrian bombing make any difference?

Currently around 1.38, strengthened by 4 cents this week.

[Digga]

RYH64E said:

Currently around 1.38, strengthened by 4 cents this week.

A brief rally after the latest bout of Super Mario extend and pretend. You cannot say headwinds don't persist.

[RYH64E]

Digga said:

RYH64E said:

Currently around 1.38, strengthened by 4 cents this week.

A brief rally after the latest bout of Super Mario extend and pretend. You cannot say headwinds don't persist.

GBP was down below 1.49 against the USD this week now back above 1.51, it's not particularly significant.

[Gargamel]

Disagree, Mario is still expanding the money supply, The US are likely to move interest rates in the next three months. Periphery currencies are going to get another pounding.

Rand, Aussies, Ruble, Most of South America etc. The Euro will be getting some stick too. Maybe not so much against the £ though, but against the Dollar, you bet.

Germans probably not bothered. Whilst Oil is cheap, you could argue it won't have much of an impact.

Euro set to continue for sure, but its hard value is questionable

[hidetheelephants]

I've not been following the thread much this year so this might be a repost; if even a tenth of the shenanigans alleged here is true Greece is toastier than a toasted thing. Not just bent but irretrievably bent.

[Axionknight]

Greece will be in the mire for decades, IMO. I wonder what the migration figures for young professionals is? Why stay there and suffer when you can take your business elsewhere? If the brightest and best leave, the following generation will suffer too as their luminaries look elsewhere for work - I wont call them tax payers,

[Welshbeef]

Axionknight said:

Greece will be in the mire for decades, IMO. I wonder what the migration figures for young professionals is? Why stay there and suffer when you can take your business elsewhere? If the brightest and best leave, the following generation will suffer too as their luminaries look elsewhere for work - I wont call them tax payers,

Personally I'd say your looking idupwards of 60 years. As such for it were me I'd say you know what we will default walk away from the entire debt and start again - who cares if we cannot borrow for a few decades it will be less than the 60odd years and at least there will be a future / hope for the youth.
Print your own money become self sufficient get so cheap we destroy Turkey as the tourist location to go to.

[Digga]

hidetheelephants said:

I've not been following the thread much this year so this might be a repost; if even a tenth of the shenanigans alleged here is true Greece is toastier than a toasted thing. Not just bent but irretrievably bent.

Very good article that, but it deals with 'big' corruption.

This sums the situation up well:

the article said:

Academic economists, Yannis Ioannides and Costas Azariadis, write of an "entire value system of nihilism and antisocial behaviour", which has percolated throughout Greek society. Research, they say, "has shown that Greece's culture of mistrust and cheating is far more extreme than anywhere in Europe".

My sister and BIL told me about some wrangling with planning on land adjacent to them where the owner had been a bit 'clever' (read, a major PITA) with them. They guy was bodyguard to the mayor of the local city, was himself the mayor of the local village and had managed (I wonder how?) to get a very favourable planning permission. Fortunately, my BIL's mother knew someone who could fight their side of things, but the law is weak there and this sort of chicanery goes on day in, day out.

[loafer123]

I have an old friend who is "British Greek".

When his father died, he discovered his aunt colluding with the local Greek bank manager to salt away some of the cash in his father's account and had to go to court to get it back.

Mind you, I have less sympathy because the HMRC then found that the UK domiciled father had hidden a load of cash in Switzerland. And even less sympathy that my friend didn't declare all of it when he came clean.

I have also done business there. It doesn't have a functioning legal system is all I will say on that.

[Andy Zarse]

Here's a very neat summary of the Greek economy and how it's positioned, with particular regard to how their banks are still unable to help drive the economy. Interesting to note too, the money which fled the banks in the summer hasn't returned...

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2015/12...

[Digga]

loafer123 said:

I have an old friend who is "British Greek".

When his father died, he discovered his aunt colluding with the local Greek bank manager to salt away some of the cash in his father's account and had to go to court to get it back.

Mind you, I have less sympathy because the HMRC then found that the UK domiciled father had hidden a load of cash in Switzerland. And even less sympathy that my friend didn't declare all of it when he came clean.

I have also done business there. It doesn't have a functioning legal system is all I will say on that.

When I first read how bitcoin might be used to tidy up land registry issues in regions where no proper laws exist, my first thought was of Greece - it is chaos.

Andy Zarse said:

Interesting to note too, the money which fled the banks in the summer hasn't returned...

Aside from all the depositor haircuts of late, the story Loafer123 gave, above, shows the issue.

[Andy Zarse]

Digga said:

side from all the depositor haircuts of late, the story Loafer123 gave, above, shows the issue.

QED indeed.

[Digga]

Someone's thrown a copy of this morning's Telegraph on my desk, with an article By A E-P about France, ostensibly about Le Pen, but concluding with economic issues.

Summary of interesting bits:

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said:

The euro ceases to exist the moment that France leaves.

Prof Jaques Sapir from l'Ecole des Hautes Etudes in Paris said "French industry is slowly being hollowed out. It is a drip-drip effect of closures - typically 150 to 200 workers at a time - that slips below the radar screen of the national press.

France's Leviathan state has balooned to 57% of GDP, a Nordic level without Nordic labour flexiblity and free markets. This bloated public sector acted as a stabilising force during the Lehman crisis but is now holding back recovery.

ETA:

Edited by Digga on Wednesday 9th December 11:20

[Yabu]

Italy bails in bank creditors
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-italy-banks-idUKK...

Swiss look at the exit
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-swiss-europe-idUK...

Denmark says no to the eu
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-denmark-eu-refere...

Whilst Europe plans border force
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-e...

[TLandCruiser]

What effect with the Fed interest rate increase have on Europe? My understanding is it can affect borrowing world wide???