Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Digga]

Couldn't have been visited on a more deservingly smug mug: http://uk.reuters.com/video/2015/12/17/spains-rajo...

Nice connection.

[tumble dryer]

Anybody catch the 2.15 play today on Radio 4?

I enjoyed it, and didn't think it was far off the truth.

[Art0ir]

I'd challenge anyone of sound mind to disagree with Varoufakis' analysis in this first clip

https://woodfordfunds.com/insight/varoufakis-on-eu...

[Andy Zarse]

If you want to understand the Greek pension system this is a comprehensive summary:

http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=b8d014b924447d...

[Digga]

You're always going to have a poor worker to pensioners ratio with a big black market.

Anyway, whatever Varifocals or anyone else says, I'm seeing a deterioration in the quality of adhesive on the lables on my daily Fage Greek yogurts - the fecking things come off in your hand as you try to peel open the foil lid with the other. A sure sign of decline.

[Gandahar]

Considering the time this thread and it's past volumes have been going the thread title does make me chuckle.

Short answer, no.

[Digga]

Art0ir said:

I'd challenge anyone of sound mind to disagree with Varoufakis' analysis in this first clip

https://woodfordfunds.com/insight/varoufakis-on-eu...

I'd go further than that; just listened to the second clip where he discusses the issue of Brexit and Varoufakis is bang-on about about everything, especially like his take on Brussels being anti-democratic and having the Brits 'in' to help other nations like Greece forge change.

[Andrew[MG]]

More importantly; how is Steffan doing?

[Art0ir]

Digga said:

Art0ir said:

I'd challenge anyone of sound mind to disagree with Varoufakis' analysis in this first clip

https://woodfordfunds.com/insight/varoufakis-on-eu...

I'd go further than that; just listened to the second clip where he discusses the issue of Brexit and Varoufakis is bang-on about about everything, especially like his take on Brussels being anti-democratic and having the Brits 'in' to help other nations like Greece forge change.

It would be the perfect solution certainly. But 1. Is Cameron the man to do that and 2. Would Brussels ever pay attention?

I really struggle to put a finger on Varoufakis. He is evidently one of the most intelligent men to ever set foot in the EU circus yet espouses Marxism, etc while talking about perfectly sensible economics. A real oxymoron personified as far as I can tell.

[Steffan]

J

Andrew[MG] said:

More importantly; how is Steffan doing?

I thank you  for that enquiry and can report that my health, which has been seriously affected by the physical consequences of Seventy years of being completely indulgent,  being thoroughly, daft and generally very silly with continuous excesses, has responded to a major change in lifestyle and I have (currently) confounded my Doctors, whose prognosis was dire in extremis!

This is not a reason for anyone else to take such risks and forbearance and sensible lifestyle choices must be the best bet for longevity and good health. But by God I have enjoyed my voluptuarian excesses. 

I have lost a great deal more weight with a seriously reduced sensible eating program and regular daily exercise and in fact, after 28 years of continuously heavier, repeated daily Diabetic drugs, without which I would have died long ago?

I have now reached the point where I do not actually need any Diabetic drugs at all. My body has reached the point where diet and exercise make this continuously  medication not currently necessary. Sugar levels never exceed 4.9, pulse rate 68 and BP 120/70. Bit better that 220/1150!

My consultants were dancing around the room when the blood tests were confirmed repeatedly, and in the months following that decision I have yet to meet a doctor who has seen Type 2 Diabetes reversed, after such a long period. Previously I was on Metformin, Gliclizide and all the other medication I was having to take daily just to stay alive.

I realise I have not been contributing on here for a while and the above, in part I thank you  for that enquiry and can report that my health, which has been seriously affected by the physical consequences of Seventy years of being completely indulgent,  daft and generally very silly with continuous excesses, has responded to a major change in lifestyle and I have (currently) confounded my Doctors, whose prognosis was dire in extremis!

This is not a reason for anyone else to take such risks and forbearance and sensible lifestyle choices must be the best bet for longevity and good health. But by God I have enjoyed my voluptuarian excesses. 

I have lost a great deal more weight with a seriously reduced sensible eating program and regular daily exercise and in fact, after 28 years of continuously heavier, repeated daily Diabetic drugs, without which I would have died long ago, I have managed (or been very lucky) to remove the need for drug medication to control that disease.

I no longer actually need any Diabetic drugs at all. My body has reached the point where diet and exercise make this continuously medication not currently necessary. This may, of course reverse, but currently Suar levels never exceed 4.9, pulse rate 68 and BP 120/70. Bit better that 220/1150! Cholesterol down to 1.9.

My consultants were dancing around the room when the blood tests were confirmed repeatedly, and in the months following the decision to cease meddication, I have yet to meet a doctor who has seen Type 2 Diabetes reversed, after such a long period. Previously I was on Metformin, Gliclizide and all the other medication I was having to take daily just to stay alive.

I realise I have not been contributing on here for a while and the above, in part explains some of the reasons. Being Complusive/Obsessive by nature, I can (and do!) become fixated all too easily.

I am very mindful of the recent posts on here from Digga, Andy Zarse, Art Dir, Gandahar et al and I will reply in some depth tomorrow. I am still firmly of the opinion that changes are rapidly approaching the EU and I do not think this cloud cuckoo land economics can be continued much longer. Awful lot of .storm clouds building up with he UK referendum approaching and the immigrant challenge in the EU. In a few words I think times are changing.

I am very mindful of the recent posts on here from Digga, Andy Zarse, Art Dir, Gandahar et al and I will reply in some depth tomorrow. I am still firmly of the opinion that changes are rapidly approaching the EU. Awful lot of .storm clouds building up with the UK referendum approaching and the immigrant challenge in the EU, becoming ever mre vexatious. HTimes are going to change I think. 

[Digga]

Driller, I can't give you specific help, other than to say I had a discussion with a French firm last year, based near Toulouse, who had an associate business near Barcelona and he did allude to a 'favourable' agreement. (I wasn't sure whether this was a tax or cross-border advantage.)

Steffan; my opinion of medical prognosis (I had an mtb crash a few years back an was told I'd never recover full use of my shoulder; which was a red rag to a bull) is that they're there to be beaten. Terrific news and all power to you!

[MG-FIDO]

Steffan said:

I thank you  for that enquiry and can report that my health, which has been seriously affected by the physical consequences of Seventy years of being completely indulgent,  being thoroughly, daft and generally very silly with continuous excesses, has responded to a major change in lifestyle and I have (currently) confounded my Doctors, whose prognosis was dire in extremis!

This is not a reason for anyone else to take such risks and forbearance and sensible lifestyle choices must be the best bet for longevity and good health. But by God I have enjoyed my voluptuarian excesses. 

I have lost a great deal more weight with a seriously reduced sensible eating program and regular daily exercise and in fact, after 28 years of continuously heavier, repeated daily Diabetic drugs, without which I would have died long ago?

I have now reached the point where I do not actually need any Diabetic drugs at all. My body has reached the point where diet and exercise make this continuously  medication not currently necessary. Sugar levels never exceed 4.9, pulse rate 68 and BP 120/70. Bit better that 220/1150!

My consultants were dancing around the room when the blood tests were confirmed repeatedly, and in the months following that decision I have yet to meet a doctor who has seen Type 2 Diabetes reversed, after such a long period. Previously I was on Metformin, Gliclizide and all the other medication I was having to take daily just to stay alive.

I realise I have not been contributing on here for a while and the above, in part I thank you  for that enquiry and can report that my health, which has been seriously affected by the physical consequences of Seventy years of being completely indulgent,  daft and generally very silly with continuous excesses, has responded to a major change in lifestyle and I have (currently) confounded my Doctors, whose prognosis was dire in extremis!

This is not a reason for anyone else to take such risks and forbearance and sensible lifestyle choices must be the best bet for longevity and good health. But by God I have enjoyed my voluptuarian excesses. 

I have lost a great deal more weight with a seriously reduced sensible eating program and regular daily exercise and in fact, after 28 years of continuously heavier, repeated daily Diabetic drugs, without which I would have died long ago, I have managed (or been very lucky) to remove the need for drug medication to control that disease.

I no longer actually need any Diabetic drugs at all. My body has reached the point where diet and exercise make this continuously medication not currently necessary. This may, of course reverse, but currently Suar levels never exceed 4.9, pulse rate 68 and BP 120/70. Bit better that 220/1150! Cholesterol down to 1.9.

My consultants were dancing around the room when the blood tests were confirmed repeatedly, and in the months following the decision to cease meddication, I have yet to meet a doctor who has seen Type 2 Diabetes reversed, after such a long period. Previously I was on Metformin, Gliclizide and all the other medication I was having to take daily just to stay alive.

I realise I have not been contributing on here for a while and the above, in part explains some of the reasons. Being Complusive/Obsessive by nature, I can (and do!) become fixated all too easily.

I am very mindful of the recent posts on here from Digga, Andy Zarse, Art Dir, Gandahar et al and I will reply in some depth tomorrow. I am still firmly of the opinion that changes are rapidly approaching the EU and I do not think this cloud cuckoo land economics can be continued much longer. Awful lot of .storm clouds building up with he UK referendum approaching and the immigrant challenge in the EU. In a few words I think times are changing.

I am very mindful of the recent posts on here from Digga, Andy Zarse, Art Dir, Gandahar et al and I will reply in some depth tomorrow. I am still firmly of the opinion that changes are rapidly approaching the EU. Awful lot of .storm clouds building up with the UK referendum approaching and the immigrant challenge in the EU, becoming ever mre vexatious. HTimes are going to change I think. 

Steffan, as an avid follower of this thread I am glad to hear you are doing so well. Tell me, has one of the changes you've made to achieve this turnaround been doing everything twice?

[Rovinghawk]

Driller said:

The highly qualified population

The ones who haven't left for greener shores?

Driller said:

a decline in labour costs

Perhaps due to massive unemployment?

Driller said:

state- of-the-art infrastructure

I can think of a couple of marvellous unused airports & big roads to/from empty towns.

Driller said:

Spain well placed for the future growth of economy

The only direction is up.

Driller said:

Unless they're talking a load of crap?

This is entirely possible. I wish you luck but suggest extreme caution.

[spikeyhead]

Rovinghawk said:

Driller said:

The highly qualified population

The ones who haven't left for greener shores?

Driller said:

a decline in labour costs

Perhaps due to massive unemployment?

Driller said:

state- of-the-art infrastructure

I can think of a couple of marvellous unused airports & big roads to/from empty towns.

Driller said:

Spain well placed for the future growth of economy

The only direction is up.

Driller said:

Unless they're talking a load of crap?

This is entirely possible. I wish you luck but suggest extreme caution.

WF juddering F?






I'm in agreement with RH.

[LongQ]

spikeyhead said:

Rovinghawk said:

Driller said:

The highly qualified population

The ones who haven't left for greener shores?

Driller said:

a decline in labour costs

Perhaps due to massive unemployment?

Driller said:

state- of-the-art infrastructure

I can think of a couple of marvellous unused airports & big roads to/from empty towns.

Driller said:

Spain well placed for the future growth of economy

The only direction is up.

Driller said:

Unless they're talking a load of crap?

This is entirely possible. I wish you luck but suggest extreme caution.

WF juddering F?






I'm in agreement with RH.

The originally quoted puff paragraph had alarms flashing all over it.

That is if you want a genuine commerce type arrangement.

If you are farming tax breaks and/or subsidies and figure you can beat the table at the game then go for it.

It seems to me that 21st century "economics" is based on anything BUT what one might call "proper" commerce and effective trading.

Perhaps this is why the entire balance of economics and trade seems to be perpetually in cesspool.

Would anyone take odds on the Google concept being destroyed, inter alia, by tax demands from all and sundry within the next 5 years?

Not 5 years? How about 10 years?

[Steffan]

MG-FIDO said:

Steffan said:

I thank you  for that enquiry and can report that my health, which has been seriously affected by the physical consequences of Seventy years of being completely indulgent,  being thoroughly, daft and generally very silly with continuous excesses, has responded to a major change in lifestyle and I have (currently) confounded my Doctors, whose prognosis was dire in extremis!

This is not a reason for anyone else to take such risks and forbearance and sensible lifestyle choices must be the best bet for longevity and good health. But by God I have enjoyed my voluptuarian excesses. 

I have lost a great deal more weight with a seriously reduced sensible eating program and regular daily exercise and in fact, after 28 years of continuously heavier, repeated daily Diabetic drugs, without which I would have died long ago?

I have now reached the point where I do not actually need any Diabetic drugs at all. My body has reached the point where diet and exercise make this continuously  medication not currently necessary. Sugar levels never exceed 4.9, pulse rate 68 and BP 120/70. Bit better that 220/1150!

My consultants were dancing around the room when the blood tests were confirmed repeatedly, and in the months following that decision I have yet to meet a doctor who has seen Type 2 Diabetes reversed, after such a long period. Previously I was on Metformin, Gliclizide and all the other medication I was having to take daily just to stay alive.

I realise I have not been contributing on here for a while and the above, in part I thank you  for that enquiry and can report that my health, which has been seriously affected by the physical consequences of Seventy years of being completely indulgent,  daft and generally very silly with continuous excesses, has responded to a major change in lifestyle and I have (currently) confounded my Doctors, whose prognosis was dire in extremis!

This is not a reason for anyone else to take such risks and forbearance and sensible lifestyle choices must be the best bet for longevity and good health. But by God I have enjoyed my voluptuarian excesses. 

I have lost a great deal more weight with a seriously reduced sensible eating program and regular daily exercise and in fact, after 28 years of continuously heavier, repeated daily Diabetic drugs, without which I would have died long ago, I have managed (or been very lucky) to remove the need for drug medication to control that disease.

I no longer actually need any Diabetic drugs at all. My body has reached the point where diet and exercise make this continuously medication not currently necessary. This may, of course reverse, but currently Suar levels never exceed 4.9, pulse rate 68 and BP 120/70. Bit better that 220/1150! Cholesterol down to 1.9.

My consultants were dancing around the room when the blood tests were confirmed repeatedly, and in the months following the decision to cease meddication, I have yet to meet a doctor who has seen Type 2 Diabetes reversed, after such a long period. Previously I was on Metformin, Gliclizide and all the other medication I was having to take daily just to stay alive.

I realise I have not been contributing on here for a while and the above, in part explains some of the reasons. Being Complusive/Obsessive by nature, I can (and do!) become fixated all too easily.

I am very mindful of the recent posts on here from Digga, Andy Zarse, Art Dir, Gandahar et al and I will reply in some depth tomorrow. I am still firmly of the opinion that changes are rapidly approaching the EU and I do not think this cloud cuckoo land economics can be continued much longer. Awful lot of .storm clouds building up with he UK referendum approaching and the immigrant challenge in the EU. In a few words I think times are changing.

I am very mindful of the recent posts on here from Digga, Andy Zarse, Art Dir, Gandahar et al and I will reply in some depth tomorrow. I am still firmly of the opinion that changes are rapidly approaching the EU. Awful lot of .storm clouds building up with the UK referendum approaching and the immigrant challenge in the EU, becoming ever mre vexatious. HTimes are going to change I think. 

Steffan, as an avid follower of this thread I am glad to hear you are doing so well. Tell me, has one of the changes you've made to achieve this turnaround been doing everything twice?

Apparently so!! Mea Culpa!! Humble apologies!

Driller asks a number of interesting questions on his discourse on the probable consequences of complex international taxation agreements to an individual engaged therein and the extent of the benefits and downsides. Such matters are necessarlity highly complex and it must be up to each individual who seeks such arrangements to be aware that the buck ultimately will, in the end, very probably stop with them. Taxpayers cannot easily avoid taxation and complex and perhaps, somewhat artificial arrangements in such matters will attract the attention of the authorities, who will require full disclosure at all times.

It is perfectly possible to avoid taxation on a very large part of business income as the international tax limitation strategies of many major commercial organisations have proved in recent years. Up to the individual to decde what is best for them. Being a simple soul, I find that not having to be concerned about using such devices gives me a better feeling of wellbeing than might be the case were I following such arrangements.

I would therefore suggest some caution. But each individual makes his own choices. Worth remebering that the Revenue have long arms and very, very long memories. Once again to misquote the phrase slightly "Caveat Emptor" applies.

[Steffan]

Digga said:

Driller, I can't give you specific help, other than to say I had a discussion with a French firm last year, based near Toulouse, who had an associate business near Barcelona and he did allude to a 'favourable' agreement. (I wasn't sure whether this was a tax or cross-border advantage.)

Steffan; my opinion of medical prognosis (I had an mtb crash a few years back an was told I'd never recover full use of my shoulder; which was a red rag to a bull) is that they're there to be beaten. Terrific news and all power to you!

I can well understand that approach. Good to hear you recovered from a nasty smash!

I agree with your approach to the complexities of such taxation matters. The authorities are steadily improving their detection of agreements in business that are in fact substantially tax avoidance driven. The film relief schemes eventually ended in massive losses for the individuals operating that scheme. Primarily becuse the Revenue quite rightly regarded the complex arrangements as essentially not commercially driven. Their approach was supported though the courts. I do think that an awareness of the possible downsides in such arrangements needs to be fully examined and viewed with caution.

Once again, up to the individual concerned.

[Andy Zarse]

Glad to see you back patrolling the beat Steffan. Meantime here's a pithy article on Italian Banks,
https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2016/01...

That said there was an amusing little titbit on Portugal's Novo Bank, which was formed when Banco Espirito Santo went bust last year. The ECB/Bank of Portugal split into a "good bank" with the functioning loanbook and a "bad bank" with all the failed property developements. Well, it turns out the good bank was actually a bad bank too and needed a couple of billion to prop it up! So what does that make the bad bank...?

[Digga]

Andy Zarse said:

So what does that make the bad bank...?

an ECB spokerperson said:

Eerrr, potato?

[maffski]

Andy Zarse said:

So what does that make the bad bank...?

Bigger. As I understand it they haven't really 'propped up' Novo Banko, rather they've moved a couple of billion euro of bonds from Novo Banko back to BES, so when they liquidate BES the debt just goes up in smoke.

Doesn't seem dubious at all.