Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Well great news for the Euro and for Greece.
Apparently it is all over and the problems are solved
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/gre...
I wonder if anyone else can spot anything wrong with this amazing achievement ?
Gargamel said:
Well great news for the Euro and for Greece.
Apparently it is all over and the problems are solved
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/gre...
I wonder if anyone else can spot anything wrong with this amazing achievement ?
Erm, more loans?Apparently it is all over and the problems are solved
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/gre...
I wonder if anyone else can spot anything wrong with this amazing achievement ?
That they can only pay by cutting more spending and more privatisation?
Which will result in less growth/gdp to pay loans.
Which will result in needing more loans to pay off loans
Mr Whippy said:
Erm, more loans?
That they can only pay by cutting more spending and more privatisation?
Which will result in less growth/gdp to pay loans.
Which will result in needing more loans to pay off loans
Wasn't a particularly difficult curtain to pull back to be fair.... That they can only pay by cutting more spending and more privatisation?
Which will result in less growth/gdp to pay loans.
Which will result in needing more loans to pay off loans
Dear Mr Bank Manager
I appear to be really overdrawn, I wonder if you might lend me the money to repay a part of the outstanding interest on my earlier loans, and have enough money for future interest on the loan to cover my earlier loan interest, plus a bit more as I have some other bills to pay.
The good news Mr Bank Manager is that you know how I promised you four years ago I would sell some of my toy boat collection on Ebay, well this time I am really promising you that I will do it, and my income isn't falling quite as much as it did last year.
In four years time, I may no longer need any new loans to cover any old loans you may have given me.
Love you.
Greece
Gargamel said:
Mr Whippy said:
Erm, more loans?
That they can only pay by cutting more spending and more privatisation?
Which will result in less growth/gdp to pay loans.
Which will result in needing more loans to pay off loans
Wasn't a particularly difficult curtain to pull back to be fair.... That they can only pay by cutting more spending and more privatisation?
Which will result in less growth/gdp to pay loans.
Which will result in needing more loans to pay off loans
Dear Mr Bank Manager
I appear to be really overdrawn, I wonder if you might lend me the money to repay a part of the outstanding interest on my earlier loans, and have enough money for future interest on the loan to cover my earlier loan interest, plus a bit more as I have some other bills to pay.
The good news Mr Bank Manager is that you know how I promised you four years ago I would sell some of my toy boat collection on Ebay, well this time I am really promising you that I will do it, and my income isn't falling quite as much as it did last year.
In four years time, I may no longer need any new loans to cover any old loans you may have given me.
Love you.
Greece
Is it not just a way for those who gave the existing loans to recover their cash and balance their books thus covering all political arses?
2018 does not sound great as a target either. Getting close to the next UK election - if other countries' elections are the basis for the timing and decision making for Greek debt. Quite why that should be when the Greek elections seem to have no influence at all is unclear to me.
LongQ said:
Gargamel said:
Mr Whippy said:
Erm, more loans?
That they can only pay by cutting more spending and more privatisation?
Which will result in less growth/gdp to pay loans.
Which will result in needing more loans to pay off loans
Wasn't a particularly difficult curtain to pull back to be fair.... That they can only pay by cutting more spending and more privatisation?
Which will result in less growth/gdp to pay loans.
Which will result in needing more loans to pay off loans
Dear Mr Bank Manager
I appear to be really overdrawn, I wonder if you might lend me the money to repay a part of the outstanding interest on my earlier loans, and have enough money for future interest on the loan to cover my earlier loan interest, plus a bit more as I have some other bills to pay.
The good news Mr Bank Manager is that you know how I promised you four years ago I would sell some of my toy boat collection on Ebay, well this time I am really promising you that I will do it, and my income isn't falling quite as much as it did last year.
In four years time, I may no longer need any new loans to cover any old loans you may have given me.
Love you.
Greece
Is it not just a way for those who gave the existing loans to recover their cash and balance their books thus covering all political arses?
2018 does not sound great as a target either. Getting close to the next UK election - if other countries' elections are the basis for the timing and decision making for Greek debt. Quite why that should be when the Greek elections seem to have no influence at all is unclear to me.
Good old EU and EZ eh!
I for one welcome our new banking overlords!
Gargamel said:
Well great news for the Euro and for Greece.
Apparently it is all over and the problems are solved
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/gre...
I wonder if anyone else can spot anything wrong with this amazing achievement ?
Pre Brexit vote, the Greeks could have squeezed tough guy Dijsselbloem a lot more.Apparently it is all over and the problems are solved
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/25/gre...
I wonder if anyone else can spot anything wrong with this amazing achievement ?
Interesting take on the EU and Greece from Ken Loach here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/672792/Ken-Loach-...
Ken Loach said:
THE European Union has caused “hardship and poverty for millions of people”
Digga said:
Interesting take on the EU and Greece from Ken Loach here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/672792/Ken-Loach-...
Ken Loach the leftie Luvvie?Ken Loach said:
THE European Union has caused “hardship and poverty for millions of people”
Has he misread the script he was given?
LongQ said:
Digga said:
Interesting take on the EU and Greece from Ken Loach here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/672792/Ken-Loach-...
Ken Loach the leftie Luvvie?Ken Loach said:
THE European Union has caused “hardship and poverty for millions of people”
Has he misread the script he was given?
It's June 1st! Three weeks to go and the pot is certainly bubbling.
Well here we are with seemingly, unending, daily, repeated evocations in all forms of the Media offering every plausible and many, highly implausible, outcomes to the forthcoming UK Referendum on 23rd June. With a whole variety of supposed complex and deeply researched articles and video's offering underlying analyses of every conceivable outcome there could possibly be! Do we believe a word of it? Well that is the question?
IMO there is almost certainly going to be a decisive outcome of some sort? An equally split vote on a Referendum of this size and relative simplicity, being most improbable. The suggestion has indeed, been made occasionally in the Media, that the Government would not be legally bound by such a Referendum.
I think it very very unlikely that, given all the years of build up there has been in this matter, before it was finally decided this, would be resolved by Referendum. Such a massive vote will effectively determine the short term continuance or otherwise of the UK within the EU.
However I have been looking at the growing evidence of continuing and rising, most serious unrest with mainland Europe and particularly Germany and France. I am beginning to think that, this, and not the withdrawal of the UK is what is going to ensure the destabilisation of the EU and eventual failure of the EU, as a concept within the next five years. So there may be a countenance but not for long I think?
To my mind the dreadful position and the transparent failure of the Greek economy, within the EU, is just one example of why this nonsense simply cannot continue. This is not a sustainable position and no amount of QE printing has or can actually effect the slightest spark of growth or recovery within the Greek economy. It s simply a policy of printing money in the very very slight hope that Greece might suddenly spring into life . In reality there is no hope whatsoever of true recovery, within that tragically wholly insolvent and steadily failing economy. Just a smokescreen from the EU which inevitably will be exposed.
On balance I now actually think that despite the best efforts of Boris, Nigel Farage, IDS, Liam Fox and all the other supporters of the UK the probable outcome will be that the UK continues within Europe, in the short term. I simply do not think enough centre ground voters, have taken on board the message, to ensure an outright victory for the Brexit campaign. There simply do not seem to be sufficient numbers of voters supporting this campaign to achieve that desired result
The stumbling and bumbling Remain, camp, saddled as it as been with a singularly lacklustre Cameron in charge, hopelessly supported, as he is by the odious George Osborne etc, etc for the result to be any way connected with an effective campaign by that bunch of toadies! Sadly I regret to say it does seem, to me, that the critical mass of support in favour of leaving that must be required to effect such a major change, has never been reached in the Brexit campaign. Bridge too far I think?
I do there fire, think we are likely to be within the EU a while longer.
But for all the reasons I have ave outlined over the years I cannot see how the EU can continue to effect this smoke and mirrors, game, effectively, for much longer. They are trying to rely upon lending more and more to an already, hopelessly insolvent debtor!
Not sustainable long term, IMO. More and more visible concerns are being expressed vociferously, and therefore piling up steadily. Greece will go bust because Greece, could never have survived within the EU, The Greek economy has never been able to survive within the EU, and can only do so whist supported by the massive and continuous lending (within the context of the Greek economy, itself!). And the EU can never redress this problem whilst this is just getting ever bigger and ever more distant, from economic reality!
Either way in fact, the writing is truly on the wall for the EU and the Euro! The Italian Maestro of banking Droghi, can and is buying time the disaster to stumble on. But at what cost and to whom? The end is most certainly, nigh.
Not going to be easy within Europe for either the EU leaders, whatever the outcome, or the EU electorate, or the EU politicians! But unquestionably, I think that is highly probable result! Do others agree? Only three weeks to go now chaps!! Let's here what you think?
Well here we are with seemingly, unending, daily, repeated evocations in all forms of the Media offering every plausible and many, highly implausible, outcomes to the forthcoming UK Referendum on 23rd June. With a whole variety of supposed complex and deeply researched articles and video's offering underlying analyses of every conceivable outcome there could possibly be! Do we believe a word of it? Well that is the question?
IMO there is almost certainly going to be a decisive outcome of some sort? An equally split vote on a Referendum of this size and relative simplicity, being most improbable. The suggestion has indeed, been made occasionally in the Media, that the Government would not be legally bound by such a Referendum.
I think it very very unlikely that, given all the years of build up there has been in this matter, before it was finally decided this, would be resolved by Referendum. Such a massive vote will effectively determine the short term continuance or otherwise of the UK within the EU.
However I have been looking at the growing evidence of continuing and rising, most serious unrest with mainland Europe and particularly Germany and France. I am beginning to think that, this, and not the withdrawal of the UK is what is going to ensure the destabilisation of the EU and eventual failure of the EU, as a concept within the next five years. So there may be a countenance but not for long I think?
To my mind the dreadful position and the transparent failure of the Greek economy, within the EU, is just one example of why this nonsense simply cannot continue. This is not a sustainable position and no amount of QE printing has or can actually effect the slightest spark of growth or recovery within the Greek economy. It s simply a policy of printing money in the very very slight hope that Greece might suddenly spring into life . In reality there is no hope whatsoever of true recovery, within that tragically wholly insolvent and steadily failing economy. Just a smokescreen from the EU which inevitably will be exposed.
On balance I now actually think that despite the best efforts of Boris, Nigel Farage, IDS, Liam Fox and all the other supporters of the UK the probable outcome will be that the UK continues within Europe, in the short term. I simply do not think enough centre ground voters, have taken on board the message, to ensure an outright victory for the Brexit campaign. There simply do not seem to be sufficient numbers of voters supporting this campaign to achieve that desired result
The stumbling and bumbling Remain, camp, saddled as it as been with a singularly lacklustre Cameron in charge, hopelessly supported, as he is by the odious George Osborne etc, etc for the result to be any way connected with an effective campaign by that bunch of toadies! Sadly I regret to say it does seem, to me, that the critical mass of support in favour of leaving that must be required to effect such a major change, has never been reached in the Brexit campaign. Bridge too far I think?
I do there fire, think we are likely to be within the EU a while longer.
But for all the reasons I have ave outlined over the years I cannot see how the EU can continue to effect this smoke and mirrors, game, effectively, for much longer. They are trying to rely upon lending more and more to an already, hopelessly insolvent debtor!
Not sustainable long term, IMO. More and more visible concerns are being expressed vociferously, and therefore piling up steadily. Greece will go bust because Greece, could never have survived within the EU, The Greek economy has never been able to survive within the EU, and can only do so whist supported by the massive and continuous lending (within the context of the Greek economy, itself!). And the EU can never redress this problem whilst this is just getting ever bigger and ever more distant, from economic reality!
Either way in fact, the writing is truly on the wall for the EU and the Euro! The Italian Maestro of banking Droghi, can and is buying time the disaster to stumble on. But at what cost and to whom? The end is most certainly, nigh.
Not going to be easy within Europe for either the EU leaders, whatever the outcome, or the EU electorate, or the EU politicians! But unquestionably, I think that is highly probable result! Do others agree? Only three weeks to go now chaps!! Let's here what you think?
Steffan said:
It's June 1st! Three weeks to go and the pot is certainly bubbling.
Not going to be easy within Europe for either the EU leaders, whatever the outcome, or the EU electorate, or the EU politicians! But unquestionably, I think that is highly probable result! Do others agree? Only three weeks to go now chaps!! Let's here what you think?
The country is not ready - one more year needed for a decisive vote.Not going to be easy within Europe for either the EU leaders, whatever the outcome, or the EU electorate, or the EU politicians! But unquestionably, I think that is highly probable result! Do others agree? Only three weeks to go now chaps!! Let's here what you think?
As much as I would like to think a majority "out" vote would be decisive, we all know that our overlords will not allow it to happen and it will be a case of "wrong answer, try again" a la Ireland. I will vote nonetheless, but I'm not expecting anything to change.
Going off topic, I do find it amusing how no post from Steffan is complete without the word "nonsense" in it somewhere. Never lets me down.
Going off topic, I do find it amusing how no post from Steffan is complete without the word "nonsense" in it somewhere. Never lets me down.
My gut feeling is that exit us more likely than remain as we stand today.
The remain campaign are starting to panic at the thought that they might lose - see the open letter from Osborne today and comments from one of the Union leaders to Corbyn - and I think there is momentum and confidence building amongst the Breziters.
Then again I am a born optimist..
The remain campaign are starting to panic at the thought that they might lose - see the open letter from Osborne today and comments from one of the Union leaders to Corbyn - and I think there is momentum and confidence building amongst the Breziters.
Then again I am a born optimist..
garyhun said:
My gut feeling is that exit us more likely than remain as we stand today.
The remain campaign are starting to panic at the thought that they might lose - see the open letter from Osborne today and comments from one of the Union leaders to Corbyn - and I think there is momentum and confidence building amongst the Breziters.
Then again I am a born optimist..
My gut feeling is that the establishment will lie and cheat to get the votes they need to claim an in victory, by any means necessary - even if the out votes outnumber the in.The remain campaign are starting to panic at the thought that they might lose - see the open letter from Osborne today and comments from one of the Union leaders to Corbyn - and I think there is momentum and confidence building amongst the Breziters.
Then again I am a born optimist..
I am not so much of an optimist anymore, not after seeing what these people in charge are doing to Europe..
chris watton said:
garyhun said:
My gut feeling is that exit us more likely than remain as we stand today.
The remain campaign are starting to panic at the thought that they might lose - see the open letter from Osborne today and comments from one of the Union leaders to Corbyn - and I think there is momentum and confidence building amongst the Breziters.
Then again I am a born optimist..
My gut feeling is that the establishment will lie and cheat to get the votes they need to claim an in victory, by any means necessary - even if the out votes outnumber the in.The remain campaign are starting to panic at the thought that they might lose - see the open letter from Osborne today and comments from one of the Union leaders to Corbyn - and I think there is momentum and confidence building amongst the Breziters.
Then again I am a born optimist..
I am not so much of an optimist anymore, not after seeing what these people in charge are doing to Europe..
Sam All said:
garyhun said:
I agree with what you are saying. I have to admit that my levels of optimism are hard to maintain when you see what's going on.
It is very hard to trust the EU. Like it has no respect for the component parts.Sam All said:
Steffan said:
It's June 1st! Three weeks to go and the pot is certainly bubbling.
Not going to be easy within Europe for either the EU leaders, whatever the outcome, or the EU electorate, or the EU politicians! But unquestionably, I think that is highly probable result! Do others agree? Only three weeks to go now chaps!! Let's here what you think?
The country is not ready - one more year needed for a decisive vote.Not going to be easy within Europe for either the EU leaders, whatever the outcome, or the EU electorate, or the EU politicians! But unquestionably, I think that is highly probable result! Do others agree? Only three weeks to go now chaps!! Let's here what you think?
That Cameron insisted on an earlier event and found a legal if suspect way to make that happen after his non-negotiations is, surely, a sign that he did not feel he could carry the day if people were offered the time and "luxury" of being properly informed during a rapidly developing generational change in the balance of society.
Interestingly amongst the relatively few people I have spoken to with the In/Out question arising in conversation the "older" generations, maybe those who recall the claims for the Heath era decisions, seem to be in favour of Exit whereas the 30 ish generation, used to the so called "easy" travel of the modern era and having watched the BBC propaganda program about "The Norway Option", seems to be vehemently in favour of remaining.
Which, form any point of view,is why the entire process should have been allowed to take the full 18 months recommended.
On the other hand if the short, sharp campaign then leads to a Remain vote and the EU's credibility continues to crumble at ever increasing rates the Remain supporters may feel they have been badly misled. Whether further social and fiscal integration would be acceptable to them over the next 10 years might be an interesting point to consider. Likewise the cultural mix might start to have a serious effect on the way "the project" is perceived - although that too could go either way.
C
By all measures there should have been another year. The guidelines for the amount of time that should be taken over referenda say as much.
That Cameron insisted on an earlier event and found a legal if suspect way to make that happen after his non-negotiations is, surely, a sign that he did not feel he could carry the day if people were offered the time and "luxury" of being properly informed during a rapidly developing generational change in the balance of society.
Interestingly amongst the relatively few people I have spoken to with the In/Out question arising in conversation the "older" generations, maybe those who recall the claims for the Heath era decisions, seem to be in favour of Exit whereas the 30 ish generation, used to the so called "easy" travel of the modern era and having watched the BBC propaganda program about "The Norway Option", seems to be vehemently in favour of remaining.
Which, form any point of view,is why the entire process should have been allowed to take the full 18 months recommended.
On the other hand if the short, sharp campaign then leads to a Remain vote and the EU's credibility continues to crumble at ever increasing rates the Remain supporters may feel they have been badly misled. Whether further social and fiscal integration would be acceptable to them over the next 10 years might be an interesting point to consider. Likewise the cultural mix might start to have a serious effect on the way "the project" is perceived - although that too could go either way.PH latest June 2016
All seems about right to me!
Once again the Politicians are looking after themselves.
Good to see the contributions from, LongQ, Digga, Garyhun and Sam All whose contribution resonated particularly with me. The problem I have is trying to find a way to effectively express the complete lunacy of the EU lending Billions more Euro's to Greece when Greece is already haplessly insolvent and can never and will never repay any of this debt? It's economic madness!
It must follow therefore that, the remaining solvent lenders within the EU will take all of this loss, because in the end the insolvent failing Sovereign states will fail and will never be able to repay these debts. Only the solvent states can afford to p.ay and therefore the solvent states will pay.The EU is giving Greece more and more whilst knowing perfectly well that, in fact, these are in reality gifts and not loans!
Hence my Nonsense loans description! Repeatedly!
LongQ is absolutely on the button with his concerns as to how much longer the EU can keep this ridiculous farce running (Sam All please note the non use the word nonsense
). That is indeed where we need to be exercising our judgement I think. It seems to me that, assuming the vote is in fact to continue, then the EU might manage another 12 months,but inevitably in the end the bigger the problem the harder the fall. Always the way with insolvency.
I cannot see this ending at all well. Huge losses piled up year on year year after year means disaster in the end for the EU, IMO. For once it looks as though this might not regarded as all our fault? Makes a change in the blame laying game in Europe!
LongQ said:
Sam All said:
Steffan said:
It's June 1st! Three weeks to go and the pot is certainly bubbling.
Not going to be easy within Europe for either the EU leaders, whatever the outcome, or the EU electorate, or the EU politicians! But unquestionably, I think that is highly probable result! Do others agree? Only three weeks to go now chaps!! Let's here what you think?
The country is not ready - one more year needed for a decisive vote.Not going to be easy within Europe for either the EU leaders, whatever the outcome, or the EU electorate, or the EU politicians! But unquestionably, I think that is highly probable result! Do others agree? Only three weeks to go now chaps!! Let's here what you think?
That Cameron insisted on an earlier event and found a legal if suspect way to make that happen after his non-negotiations is, surely, a sign that he did not feel he could carry the day if people were offered the time and "luxury" of being properly informed during a rapidly developing generational change in the balance of society.
Interestingly amongst the relatively few people I have spoken to with the In/Out question arising in conversation the "older" generations, maybe those who recall the claims for the Heath era decisions, seem to be in favour of Exit whereas the 30 ish generation, used to the so called "easy" travel of the modern era and having watched the BBC propaganda program about "The Norway Option", seems to be vehemently in favour of remaining.
Which, form any point of view,is why the entire process should have been allowed to take the full 18 months recommended.
On the other hand if the short, sharp campaign then leads to a Remain vote and the EU's credibility continues to crumble at ever increasing rates the Remain supporters may feel they have been badly misled. Whether further social and fiscal integration would be acceptable to them over the next 10 years might be an interesting point to consider. Likewise the cultural mix might start to have a serious effect on the way "the project" is perceived - although that too could go either way.
All seems about right to me!
Once again the Politicians are looking after themselves.
Good to see the contributions from, LongQ, Digga, Garyhun and Sam All whose contribution resonated particularly with me. The problem I have is trying to find a way to effectively express the complete lunacy of the EU lending Billions more Euro's to Greece when Greece is already haplessly insolvent and can never and will never repay any of this debt? It's economic madness!
It must follow therefore that, the remaining solvent lenders within the EU will take all of this loss, because in the end the insolvent failing Sovereign states will fail and will never be able to repay these debts. Only the solvent states can afford to p.ay and therefore the solvent states will pay.The EU is giving Greece more and more whilst knowing perfectly well that, in fact, these are in reality gifts and not loans!
Hence my Nonsense loans description! Repeatedly!
LongQ is absolutely on the button with his concerns as to how much longer the EU can keep this ridiculous farce running (Sam All please note the non use the word nonsense
). That is indeed where we need to be exercising our judgement I think. It seems to me that, assuming the vote is in fact to continue, then the EU might manage another 12 months,but inevitably in the end the bigger the problem the harder the fall. Always the way with insolvency.I cannot see this ending at all well. Huge losses piled up year on year year after year means disaster in the end for the EU, IMO. For once it looks as though this might not regarded as all our fault? Makes a change in the blame laying game in Europe!
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