Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Author
Discussion

XM5ER

5,091 posts

248 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Has anyone noticed this?
German 10-year sovereign bond yields turn negative
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/14/brexit-news-uncerta...

People managing lots of money must be stting bricks.

loafer123

15,445 posts

215 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all

GBP up, stock market up.

Brexit = volatility, not the end of the world.

Digga

40,334 posts

283 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
And aren't we always told decent traders make money out of volatility? biggrin

All these people clucking about their nest eggs.

Driller

8,310 posts

278 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
Driller said:
I believe there is no more chance of these poorer EU countries being allowed to fail than there is of Dave on the estate and on the dole somewhere being allowed to starve to death.
Gargamel said:
See the problem I have with this approach is that it totally underplays who actually suffers in macro economic policy, and who pays the price, and what is the cost.

Italy won't stop being Italy, nor will it (to your point) totally collapse. I agree. But being tipped over the edge is figurative, there are degrees.

Look at Greece

Public sector workers unpaid
Medicine hard to source, and new life saving drugs not affordable
Not training new Doctors or Nurses
Pensions cut
Youth unemployment - therefore at some point a less skilled workforce
low innovation, so econmy remains uncompetitive, and employs less people
Less employment - so low wages

It is families, people and children that suffer, we can toss around GDP, Debt ratio's, interest rates, resuce funds and suchlike.

But it is ALWAYS the pooredt that suffer, low mortality, increased disease, more suicide, more mental health issues, more fundamental societal changes.

That is the real price of these economic decision.
Driller - I get you back the Euro, and feel it will survive, but should it, what is the price of that "success" it may suit the Burghers of Dusseldorf, but how is it working in Pisa, Naples or Athens?
Actually I don't back the Euro at all and that's the truth! And if I lived in the UK I would vote exit not remain.

I just don't believe any of it will change though because as usual the general public only but the illusion of choice designed keep them quiet and those in charge want it to stay the way it is. I consider that society today is not really that different in principle to the middle ages with unelected lords and the general population of "peasants paying tythe etc and not having any say over anything smile

So you see, my refusal to subscribe to the predictions on this thread is not a sign that I'm pro-Europe/Euro.



Edited by Driller on Wednesday 15th June 18:59


Edited by Driller on Wednesday 15th June 19:05

Driller

8,310 posts

278 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
Driller said:
I believe there is no more chance of these poorer EU countries being allowed to fail than there is of Dave on the estate and on the dole somewhere being allowed to starve to death.
Gargamel said:
See the problem I have with this approach is that it totally underplays who actually suffers in macro economic policy, and who pays the price, and what is the cost.

Italy won't stop being Italy, nor will it (to your point) totally collapse. I agree. But being tipped over the edge is figurative, there are degrees.

Look at Greece

Public sector workers unpaid
Medicine hard to source, and new life saving drugs not affordable
Not training new Doctors or Nurses
Pensions cut
Youth unemployment - therefore at some point a less skilled workforce
low innovation, so econmy remains uncompetitive, and employs less people
Less employment - so low wages

It is families, people and children that suffer, we can toss around GDP, Debt ratio's, interest rates, resuce funds and suchlike.

But it is ALWAYS the pooredt that suffer, low mortality, increased disease, more suicide, more mental health issues, more fundamental societal changes.

That is the real price of these economic decision.
Driller - I get you back the Euro, and feel it will survive, but should it, what is the price of that "success" it may suit the Burghers of Dusseldorf, but how is it working in Pisa, Naples or Athens?
Actually I don't back the Euro at all and that's the truth! And if I lived in the UK I would vote exit not remain.

I just don't believe any of it will change though because as usual the general public only but the illusion of choice designed keep them quiet and those in charge want it to stay the way it is. I consider that society today is not really that different in principle to the middle ages with unelected lords and the general population of "peasants paying tythe etc and not having any say over anything smile

So you see, my refusal to subscribe to the predictions on this thread is not a sign that I'm pro-Europe/Euro.



Edited by Driller on Wednesday 15th June 18:59


Edited by Driller on Wednesday 15th June 19:05

Driller

8,310 posts

278 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Driller said:
I believe there is no more chance of these poorer EU countries being allowed to fail than there is of Dave on the estate and on the dole somewhere being allowed to starve to death.
Gargamel said:
See the problem I have with this approach is that it totally underplays who actually suffers in macro economic policy, and who pays the price, and what is the cost.

Italy won't stop being Italy, nor will it (to your point) totally collapse. I agree. But being tipped over the edge is figurative, there are degrees.

Look at Greece

Public sector workers unpaid
Medicine hard to source, and new life saving drugs not affordable
Not training new Doctors or Nurses
Pensions cut
Youth unemployment - therefore at some point a less skilled workforce
low innovation, so econmy remains uncompetitive, and employs less people
Less employment - so low wages

It is families, people and children that suffer, we can toss around GDP, Debt ratio's, interest rates, resuce funds and suchlike.

But it is ALWAYS the pooredt that suffer, low mortality, increased disease, more suicide, more mental health issues, more fundamental societal changes.

That is the real price of these economic decision.

Driller - I get you back the Euro, and feel it will survive, but should it, what is the price of that "success" it may suit the Burghers of Dusseldorf, but how is it working in Pisa, Naples or Athens?
Actually I don't back the Euro at all and that's the truth! And if I lived in the UK I would vote exit not remain.

I just don't believe any of it will change though because as usual the general public has but the illusion of choice designed keep them quiet and those in charge want it to stay the way it is. I consider that society today is not really that different in principle to the middle ages with unelected lords and the general population of "peasants paying tythe etc and not having any say over anything smile

So you see, my refusal to subscribe to the predictions on this thread is not a sign that I'm pro-Europe/Euro.



Edited by Driller on Wednesday 15th June 18:59


Edited by Driller on Wednesday 15th June 19:07


Edited by Driller on Wednesday 15th June 19:25

Digga

40,334 posts

283 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Driller you're bang on in many ways there. The treatment of nations by the EU is poor - the disparity between the extra time granted to France to get their budgets in line, as contrasted with the steamroller approach adopted by the Troika with Greece.

Similarly, it seems Junker likes to have some say of who the electorate are allowed to actually elect, stepping in, in various ways with Italy, Greece and Poland where the governments aren't 'approved'.

Driller

8,310 posts

278 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Oh dear, the formatting's gone all European hehe

Sam All

3,101 posts

101 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Fed standing pat on interest rates, and probably for a while. Stronger Euro till Draghi weakens it.

Sam All

3,101 posts

101 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Yellen says Brexit was a consideration in keeping rates at current level.

Steffan

10,362 posts

228 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Well here we are with just a week to go to the Referendum.  Very interesting posts from Driller, Digga, Sam All, LongQ and a number of other contributors. I find the Driller posts most interesting because, as Digga says, he is really on the button with his concerns about the fundamental unfairness of the approach of the EU. It is authoritarian and dictatorial and as George Orwell so accurately described such treatment years ago, the EU, approach is most defiantly reminiscent, of the "All animals are equal but some are more equal  than others"approach.  Which is fundamentally unfair and simply totally wrong.

I have always thought that without a unified taxation system in place and effective across Europe there would inevitably be a failure within the EU because without this control, any effective management of so many disparate economies would be totally impossible. That does seem to me to be what is happening. The EU are not actually ensuring recovery of Greece and the economies of other failing states. Their policy is to print QE money and simply mask the growing insolvency. Inevitably there will be a day of reckoning. No other way is possible because the EU cannot actually address the problem.

My own view is that here will be a marginal result in favour of remaining within the EU in the UK Referendum. However it now seems that this may be looking increasingly unlikely.  If there is a vote to continue I suspect that the level of animosity within UK politics will simply rise and rise steadily. 

The EU cannot continue this process of hiding the truth of the actual reality of the failing states being unable to afford to be members of this club. Seems to me before very long one way of another the EU is inevitably going to face severe change. 

What then, I  wonder? Within 8 days the decision will be made. What do others think the outcome will be?

LongQ

13,864 posts

233 months

Wednesday 15th June 2016
quotequote all
Since the forum UI seems to be struggling at the moment I'll do a manual quote.

Steffan wrote:

"What then, I wonder? Within 8 days the decision will be made. What do others think the outcome will be?"

It's not going to be a decision. It is only seeking an opinion.

Nothing changes. The road still stretches into the future.

Osborne may throw a hissy fit and introduce an unnecessary budget. Cameron will either be held aloft as a hero (for no reason that could be obvious to anyone) or consigned to history of some sort.


An interesting observation from today, albeit based only on reading headlines reported by the BBC, so ....

Warren East, CEO of Rolls-Royce the engineers (not RR the BMW re-badge outfit) seems to have said that Brexit puts their investment decisions back while they try to work out where best in the world to create new factories.

Interesting.

At the R-R AGM a month ago the board was pleased to announce that the major investment in manufacturing for the next generation super engine will be in Singapore.

The rationale seemed to be that the area was nearer more major future customers and so it would be easier to provide a better and more comprehensive customer service set up, service being seen as a good way to extend customer loyalty and profitability. Also Singapore is, in effect, no further than Europe when shipping engines to US plane manufacturers - like Boeing on the West Coast. The new engines will be very large - the simpler the transport route can be the better.

All logical stuff and sensible for a global player.

So then what is all the guff about Brexit and investment decisions?

Part of the current corporate strategy they talked about is "simplification". Making the decision making process more streamlined and more responsive. Hence chopping out layers of management as they have been doing. That sounds to me more Brexit like than management by committee as the EU seems to operate.

Have they been threatened in some way by somebody?

s2art

18,937 posts

253 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
LongQ said:
The rationale seemed to be that the area was nearer more major future customers and so it would be easier to provide a better and more comprehensive customer service set up, service being seen as a good way to extend customer loyalty and profitability. Also Singapore is, in effect, no further than Europe when shipping engines to US plane manufacturers - like Boeing on the West Coast. The new engines will be very large - the simpler the transport route can be the better.

All logical stuff and sensible for a global player.

So then what is all the guff about Brexit and investment decisions?

Part of the current corporate strategy they talked about is "simplification". Making the decision making process more streamlined and more responsive. Hence chopping out layers of management as they have been doing. That sounds to me more Brexit like than management by committee as the EU seems to operate.

Have they been threatened in some way by somebody?
Maybe the threat has been the bottom line, as RR have struggled recently. For all we know BREXIT followed by a weaker pound may have changed the equation and put the UK back in contention.

AstonZagato

12,707 posts

210 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
LongQ said:
Warren East, CEO of Rolls-Royce the engineers (not RR the BMW re-badge outfit) seems to have said that Brexit puts their investment decisions back while they try to work out where best in the world to create new factories.

Interesting.

At the R-R AGM a month ago the board was pleased to announce that the major investment in manufacturing for the next generation super engine will be in Singapore.

The rationale seemed to be that the area was nearer more major future customers and so it would be easier to provide a better and more comprehensive customer service set up, service being seen as a good way to extend customer loyalty and profitability. Also Singapore is, in effect, no further than Europe when shipping engines to US plane manufacturers - like Boeing on the West Coast. The new engines will be very large - the simpler the transport route can be the better.

All logical stuff and sensible for a global player.

So then what is all the guff about Brexit and investment decisions?

Part of the current corporate strategy they talked about is "simplification". Making the decision making process more streamlined and more responsive. Hence chopping out layers of management as they have been doing. That sounds to me more Brexit like than management by committee as the EU seems to operate.

Have they been threatened in some way by somebody?
What was odd was he said it was an uncertainty that his US competitors didn't face. But he was stressing that he operated in a global market. So I'd have thought he had the same decisions to make as his US competition.

It seemed to be illogical.

Axionknight

8,505 posts

135 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
paulrockliffe said:
Axionknight said:
Theresa May as the next Tory leader in an effort to try and unite the party as Gove and Johnson will be seen as being far too divisive.
I'm not sure about this. Where is she? What's her position on the EU? She's vanished and it may well be that those electing the new leader see that for what it is. She's put ambition above her principles and kept out of the debate entirely.

If I had to guess I would say that she'll vote out, but she won't piss Dave off publically because of her ambition. She's weak and lacks principles. And that's before you consider what a massive massive bellend she is.
The very idea of her being a bit invisible in all of this is what may work in her favour IMO, she isn't firmly rooted in one camp or the other (publically anyway) and if they want to present a unified image she might be ideal compared to a candidate who has been more vocal in their allegiance.

As for weak, lack of principles, bellend and all that, this is the Tory Party we are talking about, they're almost exclusively all aholes, she isn't unique.

Digga

40,334 posts

283 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
LongQ said:
Osborne may throw a hissy fit and introduce an unnecessary budget.
Two in a row?

The man is a spaz made from dough. His last budget will yet do a lot of harm to SME UK.

Steffan

10,362 posts

228 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
Well another day gone in the building up of support or otherwise for the democratic vote within the UK on whether we remain within the EU or pull out. Good to see contributions from LongQ and Digga and a number of others on PH which all adds to the pot! Interesting that LongQ commented on the increasing difficulty of actually getting postings on to PH. The systems are certainly creaking.

The more I see and hear of the antics of Cameron and Osborne the less respect I have for either of them. It seems to me that these two muppets really are rich, cosseted, inexperienced wide boys, who have led very comfortable rich boy, well to do lifestyles and entered politics with very little real experience of life. They have no experience of the difficulties that the much less cosseted majority of UK voters face every day, in trying to make a decent living and  to bring up a family. I really think that the  UK would be much better without such individuals.

The fiasco of the polls inaccuracy at the last  UK election has never been satisfactorily explained IMO. Reasons and excuses have been given, but without any really compelling answers or believable explanations I think. It does beg the question as to whether the pollsters are up against an increasingly perceptive electorate who simply will not tell the pollsters their real intentions.

For this reason, I am very wary indeed, of taking much notice of  the latest Pollster predictions that support is dwindling for the Remain camp and that the Brexit support is steadily increasing and apparently (??)(!!) now exceeds that of the Remain camp. But the fact is that this does seem to be the case according to the pollsters.

There will be a very substantial shock to the establishment if that occurs  and perhaps the most rumbustious period of change in Post WW2 Britain. However it has not happened yet and may very well not happen. But the prospect of such a change is  certainly a possibility given the general feeling that seems to be building within the UK, currently, as polling day approaches?

To my mind, as I have previously suggested on PH, whatever decision is made by the UK electorate, the inherent weaknesses within the EU are so fundamental and so unmanageable that inevitably there is going to have to be really serious structural changes within the EU whatever the result of this referendum. I do not think the status quo in Europe will last very much longer because the situation has gone beyond the control of the EU and the EU will not regain control. Change is coming whatever the EU may try to do to spin around their position. An inevitability once the dishonest supporting of insolvent states by the EU became apparent. 

 

B'stard Child

28,421 posts

246 months

Thursday 16th June 2016
quotequote all
Steffan said:
Well another day gone in the building up of support or otherwise for the democratic vote within the UK on whether we remain within the EU or pull out. Good to see contributions from LongQ and Digga and a number of others on PH which all adds to the pot! Interesting that LongQ commented on the increasing difficulty of actually getting postings on to PH. The systems are certainly creaking.

The more I see and hear of the antics of Cameron and Osborne the less respect I have for either of them. It seems to me that these two muppets really are rich, cosseted, inexperienced wide boys, who have led very comfortable rich boy, well to do lifestyles and entered politics with very little real experience of life. They have no experience of the difficulties that the much less cosseted majority of UK voters face every day, in trying to make a decent living and  to bring up a family. I really think that the  UK would be much better without such individuals.

The fiasco of the polls inaccuracy at the last  UK election has never been satisfactorily explained IMO. Reasons and excuses have been given, but without any really compelling answers or believable explanations I think. It does beg the question as to whether the pollsters are up against an increasingly perceptive electorate who simply will not tell the pollsters their real intentions.

For this reason, I am very wary indeed, of taking much notice of  the latest Pollster predictions that support is dwindling for the Remain camp and that the Brexit support is steadily increasing and apparently (??)(!!) now exceeds that of the Remain camp. But the fact is that this does seem to be the case according to the pollsters.

There will be a very substantial shock to the establishment if that occurs  and perhaps the most rumbustious period of change in Post WW2 Britain. However it has not happened yet and may very well not happen. But the prospect of such a change is  certainly a possibility given the general feeling that seems to be building within the UK, currently, as polling day approaches?

To my mind, as I have previously suggested on PH, whatever decision is made by the UK electorate, the inherent weaknesses within the EU are so fundamental and so unmanageable that inevitably there is going to have to be really serious structural changes within the EU whatever the result of this referendum. I do not think the status quo in Europe will last very much longer because the situation has gone beyond the control of the EU and the EU will not regain control. Change is coming whatever the EU may try to do to spin around their position. An inevitability once the dishonest supporting of insolvent states by the EU became apparent. 

 
Good post

LongQ

13,864 posts

233 months

Friday 17th June 2016
quotequote all
A week to go for the so called Referendum campaign and a full-on nutter crawls out of the undergrowth and produces an "event", to reference Macmillan (iirc), that could yet turn the whole exercise into a tragic farce. A moment in time so incomprehensible and (to be realistic) small in itself in the overall scheme of things (not to those directly involved of course) and yet so unpredictable in terms of how people will think of it during the next 7 days and how it might affect their opinions for no good reason at all.

Is it my imagination or are we starting to see the results of a lot of stresses in our social systems with something similar happening throughout Europe?


It is not unusual for random events to turn things on their heads in terms of what we understand about "stuff".

Is this another of those moments?

Digga

40,334 posts

283 months

Friday 17th June 2016
quotequote all
Been a while since I read War and Peace (and it certainly does warrant a second re-read IMHO) but one of the ideas I distinctly remember from it was the theory that, by and large, 'great leaders' are often less in control than they appear, certainly with the benefit of hindsight. Tolstoy's argument goes that the public and events can not only shape the decisions made by leaders, but can even make them effectively passive figureheads to the chosen direction of history.

What happened yesterday was utterly horrendous. If any good may come of it, it must be to harden our collective resolve for peaceful democracy. That and we should perhaps think again about the way mental health issues are being dealt with.