Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Reading this thread almost makes me want to vote to stay in as it seems like the EU is headed for total implosion no matter what and it would be quite convenient for the EU high command to blame the break up on the UK thus absolving them of any misdoing in the eyes of the public.
Interesting times ahead either way and I still hope that the UK removes itself from the EU mess.
Interesting times ahead either way and I still hope that the UK removes itself from the EU mess.
Tycho said:
Reading this thread almost makes me want to vote to stay in as it seems like the EU is headed for total implosion no matter what and it would be quite convenient for the EU high command to blame the break up on the UK thus absolving them of any misdoing in the eyes of the public.
Interesting times ahead either way and I still hope that the UK removes itself from the EU mess.
Hmm.Interesting times ahead either way and I still hope that the UK removes itself from the EU mess.
I can see the "Sir Humphrey" style logic in that.
It has just occurred to me that the Warren East/RR Statement about staying in the EU being important to investment decisions is slightly more off centre than I at first thought.
Here we have a company that recognises and plays on its role in the global economy (and that is not unreasonable in any way IMO) and has its major competitors based in the USA (currently). It has customers worldwide and the coat-hanger makers that provide it with a platform on which to hang its main product output (Boeing and Airbus) based mainly in the USA and Europe.
In which case, why is total independence from the overly strong influences of either the EU or the USA a major problem?
Are the main influential powers (USA and EU) and the R-o-W hangers on (China and India for example - if we should continue to think of them as huge potential consumer numbers and little else) so difficult to deal with if coming from a place that is independent from all of them?
Is it really easier to work with their major global customers as part of Europe than from somewhere independent? Or as an American company (as in the case of GE and Pratt and Whitney)?
Who would know?
In RR's case China and India, et al, may represent very public probity challenges but nothing unusual for the way that business is currently done in such places.
The decision to invest in Singapore for production and service of the next generation large jet engine has already been made as afar as I understand things. Membership or otherwise of the EU seems to be of little consequence to the decision in that respect.
Given that the negotiation of a new set of trade agreements between the EU and USA seems to have stalled recently after several years of negotiation, just what would RR be losing if the UK was outside the EU and negotiating its own trade deals?
How would it really affect RR's investment decisions when it would seem that much of its market in the foreseeable future is likely to be heavily influenced by what happens in Asia and the financial power and investment potential of the Middle East based airlines?
With the Europeans seemingly determined to move to a "carbon" free economy ASAP no matter what the consequences and America possibly on course to do something similar, one would have to assume that the long term future for companies producing jet engines (and derivatives that are primarily intended for the soon-to-be-obliterated fossil fuel industries) would be best served by positioning themselves outside both the EU and the USA. And outside the UK of course.
So really I don't see why it makes any difference to RR's investment strategy whether they are based in or out of the EU area - other than for potential subsidy harvesting.
Beyond that the RR board has recently has to appoint a director who represents a US "investment" company that owns 10% of RR shares. They may come under pressure to break up the company as it currently exists. It already has a significant US based operation. Under pressure it might well have to sell off some areas of its operations to the Americans. Or just abandon some of its market areas leaving them open to the Americans. Or maybe the Chinese as their technology advances into those areas traditionally controlled by GE, P&W and RR.
It's not clear to me how being based in the EU would be important in that situation, especially given the problems the EU seems to face in the short to medium term.
Investment in the EU would surely be a huge gamble that, somehow, the resulting investment would be more cost effective than investing elsewhere in the world over the next 10 to 15 years. (Through subsidies and tax benefits rather than sales opportunities?)
That, surely, would be about as likely as Hull winning the Premiership next season together with John Presclot accidentally becoming Prime Minister.
Interesting philosophical posts from LongQ at length, Digga and Tycho who all raise the concerns that I think many of us have felt for some time in the ever sinking spoiled pit that Western politics has become. Regrettably I think, successive self serving political apparatchiks have been seiizing power with the sole purpose of getting on the personal gravy train and then swanning off into the sunset with jobs like European Commissioner and similar well paid sinecures ensuring comfortable living and no real work or responsibility for anything at all. "Trebles All Round" being the Private Eye Quip, for such dreadful attitudes!
Like Tycho I have been seriously concerned for some time about the effect of the UK decidingc to leave the EU because IMO the EU simply could not continue if a major player pulls out in these circumstances? Marion Draghi has his printing presses ready to roll but I am almost certain that such an event, this far into the life of the EU would definitely cause serious doubts amongst investors.
As I have said before I think the polls on the outcome of the Referendum are highly questionable, currently and I think in the heat of the actual polling booth and poling day a number of wavering voters will actually decide to vote with the Remain camp. I do think an outright Brexit vote is unlikely in the Referendum. But in any two horse race, there is always a significant chance that the unlikely will happen.
Perhaps the most significant revelations have been the absolute hate and utter contempt that many UK politicians hold for their own Party members. No wonder politics is such dirty game!
I think that we are living through a very challenging and difficult political period. The extent of the visible contempt the public clearly feel, for our leaders, ministers and political parties really is a serious matter of concern.
Only days to go now and the pace is definitely getting a good deal sharper. One way or another this ridiculous pretence that wholly insolvent countries can happily borrow as much as they live and everything will be all right just cannot continue. One way or another the EU are going to find that out. LongQ is really on the button in hs last, very informative post on here. The chance of the EU continuing as it has been doing are really long gone. There is just too much wrong and the general population of the EU can see that there is too much wrong. I am sorry to say it going to gey very, very difficult indeed for the EU. I am reminded of the Linoln phrase "You cannot fool all the people, all of the time". I do think we are getting there!
Like Tycho I have been seriously concerned for some time about the effect of the UK decidingc to leave the EU because IMO the EU simply could not continue if a major player pulls out in these circumstances? Marion Draghi has his printing presses ready to roll but I am almost certain that such an event, this far into the life of the EU would definitely cause serious doubts amongst investors.
As I have said before I think the polls on the outcome of the Referendum are highly questionable, currently and I think in the heat of the actual polling booth and poling day a number of wavering voters will actually decide to vote with the Remain camp. I do think an outright Brexit vote is unlikely in the Referendum. But in any two horse race, there is always a significant chance that the unlikely will happen.
Perhaps the most significant revelations have been the absolute hate and utter contempt that many UK politicians hold for their own Party members. No wonder politics is such dirty game!
I think that we are living through a very challenging and difficult political period. The extent of the visible contempt the public clearly feel, for our leaders, ministers and political parties really is a serious matter of concern.
Only days to go now and the pace is definitely getting a good deal sharper. One way or another this ridiculous pretence that wholly insolvent countries can happily borrow as much as they live and everything will be all right just cannot continue. One way or another the EU are going to find that out. LongQ is really on the button in hs last, very informative post on here. The chance of the EU continuing as it has been doing are really long gone. There is just too much wrong and the general population of the EU can see that there is too much wrong. I am sorry to say it going to gey very, very difficult indeed for the EU. I am reminded of the Linoln phrase "You cannot fool all the people, all of the time". I do think we are getting there!
Edited by Steffan on Saturday 18th June 00:14
Edited by Steffan on Saturday 18th June 00:17
LongQ said:
With the Europeans seemingly determined to move to a "carbon" free economy ASAP no matter what the consequences and America possibly on course to do something similar, one would have to assume that the long term future for companies producing jet engines (and derivatives that are primarily intended for the soon-to-be-obliterated fossil fuel industries) would be best served by positioning themselves outside both the EU and the USA. And outside the UK of course.
I am afraid you couldn't be more wrong. The airline industry is only going one way, which is to continue to expend worldwide, including in the UK and USA. Fossil fuel industries and aircraft use are here for a very very long time yet.jsf said:
LongQ said:
With the Europeans seemingly determined to move to a "carbon" free economy ASAP no matter what the consequences and America possibly on course to do something similar, one would have to assume that the long term future for companies producing jet engines (and derivatives that are primarily intended for the soon-to-be-obliterated fossil fuel industries) would be best served by positioning themselves outside both the EU and the USA. And outside the UK of course.
I am afraid you couldn't be more wrong. The airline industry is only going one way, which is to continue to expend worldwide, including in the UK and USA. Fossil fuel industries and aircraft use are here for a very very long time yet.However on the basis of what you have written and the projections of continuing growth in the industry worldwide (though one might guess the next 2 or 3 decades, the time during which the mentioned investment in a new testing facility might be pertinent, is the main focus of any investment decisions being taken now) makes one wonder why it would be a big enough concern that any possible Brexit would matter.
Maybe the challenge is that GE is in a position to play a broader game in a series of markets that seem unlikely to be addressed by a stand alone UK?
Or perhaps it is simply a political ploy to secure some sort of favour for the company (one assumes) in some way.
I certainly don't see the relevance of the comment about which part of the world might see the investment based solely on a possible Brexit from the EU. RR is already a big player worldwide - the comment just doesn't seem to fit with their perceived positioning on their target markets.
Perhaps there are some other deeply hidden reasons for the public statement.
That said, surely once the ink has dried on the COP21 signatures the Climate Change jamborees around the world will no longer be seen as necessary and thus the airline industry will implode due to lack of travellers ...
Axionknight said:
mikees said:
This is the most sensible, intelligent and informative threads on NPE. Thanks Steffan and others for keeping on track.
The end has been nigh for years, it seema
In all seriousness I don't think the EU in its present form will make it to the end of the decade.
I have been trying to get a handle onto the probability that the current predictions of the pollsters, that suggest a significant rising support level for the Brexit camp will actually be achieved in the forthcoming vote? I have previously voiced my doubts about the accuracy of polling given the 9 out of 9 polls at the last election being seriously wrong.
On balance, given the paucity of really solid information about the effects that Brexit would actually have, it seems very probable to me that the actual vote on the day will not be anywhere near as definite, as the current polls are suggesting. In consequence I still think that the vote will favour the Remain camp.
I would like the vote to support Brexit but I do not think it will. However I do think the Brexit vote will be very much higher than was originally predicted in the early polls. The real difficulty is going to be that a great many people from within the UK and the rest of the EU that have realised that there are a whole seres of problems facing the EU, that cannot continue to be ignored and disguised with QE money.
I think our Referendum will give voice to a great many concerned and worried EU workers who are beginning to realise that the EU have lost control of this Union. The EU may stagger on for a while, throwing billions of Euros away every month, supporting insolvent states who are living way beyond their means. The writing is on the wall for the EU now i think? Just a matter of time
Two or three weeks ago I fielded 3 phone calls over a period of days asking if my wife was available to answer some questions. (She was out for all of them.)
2 claimed to be from Vote Leave, one from the Remain side.
The second "Leave" call seemed to be extremely keen to know which way my wife was likely to be voting and could I tell them on her behalf. Since I had no idea at the time I said that was not possible. From what I could recall I can't remember her ever bothering to vote in an election.
As I recall the "Remain" caller then attempted to ask me which way I would be voting. Of course I could have been anyone on the end of the line and could have offered a random answer. On that basis I offered no answer. I only had their introductory statement about who they were representing. They could have been anyone.
Like Steffan I am more than a little dubious about the results of the polls.
Originally it was thought that this referendum would take place in 2017. All advice on how a referendum could and should be developed and should be set up and operated pointed to 2017 giving plenty of time for a detailed an considered debate.
That may well have been a tortuous and brain numbing experience for all of us but it could have allowed a full briefing on the issues to be considered especially the technical details. For some reason Cameron did not want that to happen and so we end up with everything done in a hurry - not the least his "negotiations". In effect it is all just a nod to "due process". He must have known that the period he sought would mean the result would be based on a gut reaction of some sort rather than any sort of carefully prepared and presented arguments. That might also have been the case for a 2017 vote of course but going for 2016 almost certainly ensured that any thorough discussion that might have found its way into the process was avoided. Presumably that is why Juncker was so smug a few months back about knowing what the result would be.
Either that or he was intimating that the EU would always ensure that eventually it would get the result it wanted one way or another.
There are some strange and somewhat illogical positions being taken by those who seem to think they may offer their wisdom to the masses.
For example the SNP, who not so long ago in their referendum wanted a split from the UK, now want to stay on the much larger and more over-arching EU. Had they carried the vote to leave the UK and acted on it they would have forfeited membership of the EU by becoming independent as things stood at the time of the vote. It seems therefore that they are just playing a political game solely for the benefit of the SNP politicians and their publicity seeking.
The Scottish public, at least those voting to leave the UK, were possibly expressing a feeling of general dissatisfaction locally that is common to many within the EU and most likely the entire world. We are, after all, a somewhat tribal species that likes to identify, individually, in quite small groups where possible. That does not fit too well with supranationalism like that required by the EU project let alone the globalism of what is left of "politics" as required by the UN play.
In the end it would not surprise me at all if this entire "referendum" event was the most pointless exercise ever devised by politicians and bureaucrats under the banner of democratic choice. Possibly the most dishonourable too.
There is at least one fairly comprehensive and detailed technical document available as the basis for well informed debate about Brexit. That everyone in charge of running the two sides of the campaign seems to have been keen to avoid such detail suggests this was always going to be a street fight based on emotion and very little else. Thus do the politicians show us how little they think of the system that provides them with their positions of influence and the people they represent.
That seems to be a Europe-wide attitude. The interesting times will most likely continue unabated by any referendum result until some random event results in a real eruption of dissatisfaction or makes people recognise that, in terms of some strongly held opinion or a failure of perceived "security", their backs are right up against the wall. At that point the merde may hit the Lüfter.
2 claimed to be from Vote Leave, one from the Remain side.
The second "Leave" call seemed to be extremely keen to know which way my wife was likely to be voting and could I tell them on her behalf. Since I had no idea at the time I said that was not possible. From what I could recall I can't remember her ever bothering to vote in an election.
As I recall the "Remain" caller then attempted to ask me which way I would be voting. Of course I could have been anyone on the end of the line and could have offered a random answer. On that basis I offered no answer. I only had their introductory statement about who they were representing. They could have been anyone.
Like Steffan I am more than a little dubious about the results of the polls.
Originally it was thought that this referendum would take place in 2017. All advice on how a referendum could and should be developed and should be set up and operated pointed to 2017 giving plenty of time for a detailed an considered debate.
That may well have been a tortuous and brain numbing experience for all of us but it could have allowed a full briefing on the issues to be considered especially the technical details. For some reason Cameron did not want that to happen and so we end up with everything done in a hurry - not the least his "negotiations". In effect it is all just a nod to "due process". He must have known that the period he sought would mean the result would be based on a gut reaction of some sort rather than any sort of carefully prepared and presented arguments. That might also have been the case for a 2017 vote of course but going for 2016 almost certainly ensured that any thorough discussion that might have found its way into the process was avoided. Presumably that is why Juncker was so smug a few months back about knowing what the result would be.
Either that or he was intimating that the EU would always ensure that eventually it would get the result it wanted one way or another.
There are some strange and somewhat illogical positions being taken by those who seem to think they may offer their wisdom to the masses.
For example the SNP, who not so long ago in their referendum wanted a split from the UK, now want to stay on the much larger and more over-arching EU. Had they carried the vote to leave the UK and acted on it they would have forfeited membership of the EU by becoming independent as things stood at the time of the vote. It seems therefore that they are just playing a political game solely for the benefit of the SNP politicians and their publicity seeking.
The Scottish public, at least those voting to leave the UK, were possibly expressing a feeling of general dissatisfaction locally that is common to many within the EU and most likely the entire world. We are, after all, a somewhat tribal species that likes to identify, individually, in quite small groups where possible. That does not fit too well with supranationalism like that required by the EU project let alone the globalism of what is left of "politics" as required by the UN play.
In the end it would not surprise me at all if this entire "referendum" event was the most pointless exercise ever devised by politicians and bureaucrats under the banner of democratic choice. Possibly the most dishonourable too.
There is at least one fairly comprehensive and detailed technical document available as the basis for well informed debate about Brexit. That everyone in charge of running the two sides of the campaign seems to have been keen to avoid such detail suggests this was always going to be a street fight based on emotion and very little else. Thus do the politicians show us how little they think of the system that provides them with their positions of influence and the people they represent.
That seems to be a Europe-wide attitude. The interesting times will most likely continue unabated by any referendum result until some random event results in a real eruption of dissatisfaction or makes people recognise that, in terms of some strongly held opinion or a failure of perceived "security", their backs are right up against the wall. At that point the merde may hit the Lüfter.
The whole affair does seem rushed along, the cynical part of me thinks that is it intentional on Camerons part.
The EU and Euro are walking wounded, the migrant crisis and global financial issues have really brought home to many people just how ineffectual the EU has been on the world stage and I think that leaving the vote until next year would have been a massibe gamble considering the state of the southern EU nations finances, another financial crisis would surely push one of them over the edge and the EU, being as unfit for purpose as it is, would then be in dire straights, which could impact the result of any delayed referendum here.
Look at how they are delaying some legislation until after the vote so as not to appear unpopular/controlling, they know people are fed up, they just don't want to bend to public opinion.
But one day imo, something catastrophic will happen, and then they will have to.
The EU and Euro are walking wounded, the migrant crisis and global financial issues have really brought home to many people just how ineffectual the EU has been on the world stage and I think that leaving the vote until next year would have been a massibe gamble considering the state of the southern EU nations finances, another financial crisis would surely push one of them over the edge and the EU, being as unfit for purpose as it is, would then be in dire straights, which could impact the result of any delayed referendum here.
Look at how they are delaying some legislation until after the vote so as not to appear unpopular/controlling, they know people are fed up, they just don't want to bend to public opinion.
But one day imo, something catastrophic will happen, and then they will have to.
Steffan said:
I would like the vote to support Brexit but I do not think it will.
I think it will support Brexit.The "educated" who need stability have concentrated on the financial aspect and don't understand the gut instinct of the masses who are proud to be British even if they don't know why. They don't trust the government and they certainly don't like nor trust the EU, the only issue is whether they can be bothered to get off the sofa to vote.
I mix with a lot of self employed tradesmen, garage owners, car dealers and middle management at least 80% support Leave, many thinking that we won't actually leave but it will mean a better deal can be negotiated.
Unlike this thread - the end (of the campaigning) is nigh !
V8RX7 said:
Steffan said:
I would like the vote to support Brexit but I do not think it will.
I think it will support Brexit.The "educated" who need stability have concentrated on the financial aspect and don't understand the gut instinct of the masses who are proud to be British even if they don't know why. They don't trust the government and they certainly don't like nor trust the EU, the only issue is whether they can be bothered to get off the sofa to vote.
I mix with a lot of self employed tradesmen, garage owners, car dealers and middle management at least 80% support Leave, many thinking that we won't actually leave but it will mean a better deal can be negotiated.
V8RX7 said:
I mix with a lot of self employed tradesmen, garage owners, car dealers and middle management at least 80% support Leave, many thinking that we won't actually leave but it will mean a better deal can be negotiated.
Unlike this thread - the end (of the campaigning) is nigh !
In my network, the more overtly entrepreneurial ones are all pro-Brexit. The more established ones from bigger organisations tend to be Remain.Unlike this thread - the end (of the campaigning) is nigh !
GlenMH said:
In my network, the more overtly entrepreneurial ones are all pro-Brexit. The more established ones from bigger organisations tend to be Remain.
ive got a very varied network. A bunch of friends who live in a comfortable, trendy, middle class Manchester suburb are, predictably, very pro-Remain.It is most interesting to me how diverse the pro-Breixters are; old and young, wealthy and also very ordinary. The opinions of the immigrant communities will vary; those from the EU will generally (understandably) be for Remain, but I think some of the non-EU immigrants may surprise in their pro-Brexit leanings. Not only did these people specifically choose the UK (as distinct from the broader EU) to live, they are often, also fully cognoscent of the chaos that can exist elsewhere and the potential dangers of unfettered immigration.
Digga said:
, but I think some of the non-EU immigrants may surprise in their pro-Brexit leanings. Not only did these people specifically choose the UK (as distinct from the broader EU) to live, they are often, also fully cognoscent of the chaos that can exist elsewhere and the potential dangers of unfettered immigration.
& yet most immigrant MPs will defend immigration & likely to be on the Remain side - that's playing politics.Interesting to see the thoughts of LongQ, Digga, SamAll, Axionknight, amongst others expressing pretty serious concerns about the weaknesses and difficulties of the EU, but also recognising that there may well be a vote to remain and that the decision does seem to be finely balanced.
To my mind the refusal of the EU to actually grip the problem and admit the truth, will be seen in future years as the fundamental error, that it has actually become, over the last three years. If there was some hope that the failing Sovereign states within Europe were actually succeeding in repairing their failing economies, then there might be a reovey. But there s not. Therefore, in reality throwing Billions of Euros away every month will never improve these economies. It s a smokescreen and not a cure!
Only a few days left to go and I still think that theRemain camp will narrowly, win the Referendum. I do not think that this will repair the damaged EU and therefore before very long the crunch will come. This is not a workable structure.
To my mind the refusal of the EU to actually grip the problem and admit the truth, will be seen in future years as the fundamental error, that it has actually become, over the last three years. If there was some hope that the failing Sovereign states within Europe were actually succeeding in repairing their failing economies, then there might be a reovey. But there s not. Therefore, in reality throwing Billions of Euros away every month will never improve these economies. It s a smokescreen and not a cure!
Only a few days left to go and I still think that theRemain camp will narrowly, win the Referendum. I do not think that this will repair the damaged EU and therefore before very long the crunch will come. This is not a workable structure.
Steffan said:
Only a few days left to go and I still think that theRemain camp will narrowly, win the Referendum.
This sums it up, in true motoring spirit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy1BtPEEjEQ
Steffan said:
Only a few days left to go and I still think that the Remain camp will narrowly, win the Referendum.
Oh sodding marvellous, Steffan. Cast your jinx on the Remain camp, why don't you?Given your past record of predictions about the Euro, we can now probably look forward to the newly-installed British Imperial President-for-Life Farage being driven down The Mall, standing in the back of an open limo being lauded by hundreds of thousands of adoring supporters, at about tea-time on Friday next.
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