Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
LongQ said:
Two or three weeks ago I fielded 3 phone calls over a period of days asking if my wife was available to answer some questions. (She was out for all of them.)
2 claimed to be from Vote Leave, one from the Remain side.
The second "Leave" call seemed to be extremely keen to know which way my wife was likely to be voting and could I tell them on her behalf. Since I had no idea at the time I said that was not possible. From what I could recall I can't remember her ever bothering to vote in an election.
As I recall the "Remain" caller then attempted to ask me which way I would be voting. Of course I could have been anyone on the end of the line and could have offered a random answer. On that basis I offered no answer. I only had their introductory statement about who they were representing. They could have been anyone.
It was commented on a while ago that the female vote could well decide the outcome of the referendum. The pollsters were probably ascribing to this premise, with females being the largest part of the electorate. 2 claimed to be from Vote Leave, one from the Remain side.
The second "Leave" call seemed to be extremely keen to know which way my wife was likely to be voting and could I tell them on her behalf. Since I had no idea at the time I said that was not possible. From what I could recall I can't remember her ever bothering to vote in an election.
As I recall the "Remain" caller then attempted to ask me which way I would be voting. Of course I could have been anyone on the end of the line and could have offered a random answer. On that basis I offered no answer. I only had their introductory statement about who they were representing. They could have been anyone.
Although not a homogeneous group, female views are meant to align themselves with the status quo and protect what they and their families have. A straw poll of my family and friends did not corroborate this 100% but it was not far off.
It's an interesting angle and it may well suggest that mumsnet could play a bigger role than any motoring forum, especially in the light of recent tragic events.
Well another day nearer the Referendum and not a great many obvious changes to the status quo. I appreciate that some individuals find it more than a little odd that I am suggesting that the most likely outcome is that the Remain camp will achieve the highest support within the UK given my own personal concerns with the inevitable fall of the EU that I have been predicting for some years.
I am making that reduction, couched in terms which recognise the inherent statistical complexities that effect risk in two horse races, because I cannot see that the Brexit camp have gained the impetus they need to gain power abd .reverse the position of the UK and seek immediate withdrawal. I do think the Remain camp has relied heavily on the repeated warnings concerning the inherent huge downside costs and reduced income (made apparent in their not very well substantiated projections) and friends of the Remain camp, like the CBI, the Bank of England, the Grosvenor of the Bank and so forth.
Quite simply I think the opportunity was there for the Brexit camp. Sadly, jointly and severally I think they have failed grasp this opportunity. I do not think enough UK voters, have been convnced to vote in favour of Brexit and that therefore, the Brexit camp will not win sufficient support in the forthcoming Referendum to acheve victory.
Personally I will be voting in favour of leaving for all the reasons I have outlined over time, on this thread. The polls seem to me to be very suspect in their findings and I share AndyZarse's view that the polls currently are by no means reliable indicators of the probable results. There does not seem to me to be sufficient support for either camp generally for the result to be absolutely certain?
The latest efforts of the not very well received Immigration posters by UKIP and Nigel Farge, in particular, seems to have been particularly inept and very probably damage the UKIP support. Not at all well thought through. It could be that the reality of the weakness of their position has reduced the due care that should have been exercised prior to actual transmission? Whatever was intended I think this was a particularly unwise approach which should not have been transmitted.
Matter of a few days now and we will know exactly how the UK has voted. What then I wonder? Certainly, I think, the serious problems that the EU faces (or the EU continues to print QE billions of Euros a week, so as not face them), will require action pretty soon. The EU is not going to continue in the current format. That simply will not exist as an option IMO. When reality finally strikes, as reality always does with Ponzi schemes, there are invariably permanent changes in the affected partes, to try and prevent such nonsences recurring. There are going to be some very hard decisions and a significant number of disenfranchised and very poor countries drectly in consequence.
Finally, I found it very unusual to see the £ rising in value today by the largest margin in many years. I am no expert on currency market trading, but i do wonder what the likes f Mermaid, a stalwart of PH, and any other currency men make of this phenomena? Looks to me as if the Euro problems and the consequences that this must have to monetary values are rising faster than Mario's ability to disguise the problem, even with his beloved QE approach? Big changes are coming to Europe one way or another!!
I am making that reduction, couched in terms which recognise the inherent statistical complexities that effect risk in two horse races, because I cannot see that the Brexit camp have gained the impetus they need to gain power abd .reverse the position of the UK and seek immediate withdrawal. I do think the Remain camp has relied heavily on the repeated warnings concerning the inherent huge downside costs and reduced income (made apparent in their not very well substantiated projections) and friends of the Remain camp, like the CBI, the Bank of England, the Grosvenor of the Bank and so forth.
Quite simply I think the opportunity was there for the Brexit camp. Sadly, jointly and severally I think they have failed grasp this opportunity. I do not think enough UK voters, have been convnced to vote in favour of Brexit and that therefore, the Brexit camp will not win sufficient support in the forthcoming Referendum to acheve victory.
Personally I will be voting in favour of leaving for all the reasons I have outlined over time, on this thread. The polls seem to me to be very suspect in their findings and I share AndyZarse's view that the polls currently are by no means reliable indicators of the probable results. There does not seem to me to be sufficient support for either camp generally for the result to be absolutely certain?
The latest efforts of the not very well received Immigration posters by UKIP and Nigel Farge, in particular, seems to have been particularly inept and very probably damage the UKIP support. Not at all well thought through. It could be that the reality of the weakness of their position has reduced the due care that should have been exercised prior to actual transmission? Whatever was intended I think this was a particularly unwise approach which should not have been transmitted.
Matter of a few days now and we will know exactly how the UK has voted. What then I wonder? Certainly, I think, the serious problems that the EU faces (or the EU continues to print QE billions of Euros a week, so as not face them), will require action pretty soon. The EU is not going to continue in the current format. That simply will not exist as an option IMO. When reality finally strikes, as reality always does with Ponzi schemes, there are invariably permanent changes in the affected partes, to try and prevent such nonsences recurring. There are going to be some very hard decisions and a significant number of disenfranchised and very poor countries drectly in consequence.
Finally, I found it very unusual to see the £ rising in value today by the largest margin in many years. I am no expert on currency market trading, but i do wonder what the likes f Mermaid, a stalwart of PH, and any other currency men make of this phenomena? Looks to me as if the Euro problems and the consequences that this must have to monetary values are rising faster than Mario's ability to disguise the problem, even with his beloved QE approach? Big changes are coming to Europe one way or another!!
Last day of the campaigns by the Brexit camp and the Remain camp to affect the result of the Referendum has arrived and the campaigners are all doing thirr best, inadequate though it may, or may not be, to influence the result? Over the course of the last few months, in common with many other observers, I have been viewing the probable outcome, so far as I can and trying to measure the reality of the likely result and the conseqences of that result.
The margin of error that exists within these polls is such that, given the small margins that are occurring, it is not possible to be wholly certain of the outcome of the result, even at this late juncture. On balance I think the many dire warnings suggested, indeed constantly repeated and repeated, by the Remain camp, that economic dsaster will be upon us, if we exit, will weigh heavily in the minds of voters.
Despite the many repeated attempts by the Leave camp, to effectively quash such concerns, I doubt if those efforts have been successful. I think on balance therefore that the Remain camp must be the probable successor although as followers of ths thread, will understand, I personally hope that the vote results in the UK leaving the EU.
In fact the whole future of the EU is in fact, now, seriously challenged , because of the absolute madness of the actual policy of the EU of seeking to maintain hopelessly insolvent Sovereign states within the EU with QE money. This will never work and therefore, whatever the resolution of our vote, the conseqences must be that the EU comes under greater and greater economic pressure and inevitably the solvent states within the EU seek a new grouping as the old grouping steadily fails.
In a sense therefore the game has aready changed. l really do think that the future of the EU, in it's current form, will become the subject of serious examination, whatever the UK decides to do. I do think that the pressure will rise upon the EU whatever the UK decision.
There may be a breathing space but the reality of the madness in which the EU has engaged, by trying to pretend that visibly insolvent states can be supported by printing QE money just will not work! Inevitably the problems will come to light and what then I wonder? I suspect, a rethink on the whole project will be coming before too long.
What do others on PH think, is likely to happen? Will there be a clear decision? What will that decision be? Could there be a close vote or a very small majority in the decision. Would that change things? This is arguably the biggest decision by the UK, since the original vote, all those years ago, for the UK to join the Common Market.
Whatever the result there will be changes not least to the political scene. Lot of ruffled feathers in every party. Old friendships gone? New friendships discovered? We do live in very interesting and challenging times! I wonder..........?
The margin of error that exists within these polls is such that, given the small margins that are occurring, it is not possible to be wholly certain of the outcome of the result, even at this late juncture. On balance I think the many dire warnings suggested, indeed constantly repeated and repeated, by the Remain camp, that economic dsaster will be upon us, if we exit, will weigh heavily in the minds of voters.
Despite the many repeated attempts by the Leave camp, to effectively quash such concerns, I doubt if those efforts have been successful. I think on balance therefore that the Remain camp must be the probable successor although as followers of ths thread, will understand, I personally hope that the vote results in the UK leaving the EU.
In fact the whole future of the EU is in fact, now, seriously challenged , because of the absolute madness of the actual policy of the EU of seeking to maintain hopelessly insolvent Sovereign states within the EU with QE money. This will never work and therefore, whatever the resolution of our vote, the conseqences must be that the EU comes under greater and greater economic pressure and inevitably the solvent states within the EU seek a new grouping as the old grouping steadily fails.
In a sense therefore the game has aready changed. l really do think that the future of the EU, in it's current form, will become the subject of serious examination, whatever the UK decides to do. I do think that the pressure will rise upon the EU whatever the UK decision.
There may be a breathing space but the reality of the madness in which the EU has engaged, by trying to pretend that visibly insolvent states can be supported by printing QE money just will not work! Inevitably the problems will come to light and what then I wonder? I suspect, a rethink on the whole project will be coming before too long.
What do others on PH think, is likely to happen? Will there be a clear decision? What will that decision be? Could there be a close vote or a very small majority in the decision. Would that change things? This is arguably the biggest decision by the UK, since the original vote, all those years ago, for the UK to join the Common Market.
Whatever the result there will be changes not least to the political scene. Lot of ruffled feathers in every party. Old friendships gone? New friendships discovered? We do live in very interesting and challenging times! I wonder..........?
slow_poke said:
XM5ER said:
steveT350C said:
"To survive, a Ponzi scheme must perpetually acquire new members"
It's a weird Ponzi scheme that pays out more to its new members than to its old ones.
king useless, these Eurocrats!
So funny because it's true !
Well the polls have closed by now and the die is cast for this Referendum. Quite what the result will be remains to be seen. I voted early in the day on my local wanderings in the pursuit of ensuring adequate exercise, which for me, amounts to 20+ miles walking a week. This far this is working and my various consultants remain pleasantly surprised with the results.
I do feel a lot better for the change of lifestyle and I wholeheartedly recommend it to anyone who has the health problems that I had and the repeated warnings my consultants to gave me. All well intentioned and entirely good advice. It has made a real difference to my life which would not have gone on for much longer, had I not acted upon the advice!. Apologies for the detour onto the subject of my health, now, back to the subject of this thread!
I really do think the EU is not going to last fir much longer, as the massive conglomeration of states that it has become. The reality of the solvent Northern states contributing far more into the EU and taking out far less than the Mediterranean states who are contributing less and taking out far more is so visibly unfair and unsustainable that I cannot see it continuing. We may be fools but we are not idiots?
For that reason I cannot see that the EU can fail to answer any of the continuing economic failures demonstrated in a number of EU states, without inevitably ensuring that these continuing and worsening failures undermine the whole substance of the supposed strength of the EU. It seems to me that the game has changed and continues changing because the losses created by the QE lending to the insolvent states will never be recovered by the EU. To my mind therefore, the argument is lost. The EU may be able to push this forward for a little longer by undermining the basic strength within the EU monetary system. But the EU cannot put the problems right and the debt will be lost. They may gain time but they do not have any answers.
I have said on several occasions that, much as I would like the UK to exit the EU, for all the reasons I posted earlier, I regret to say I think the fear ploy played by the Remain camp has worked and a majority in the UK will vote to remain. However for all the reasons above I do not think the ploy will last for long.
I must agree with the posts of steveT350C, EM5ER, Slow_poke and V8RX7 on the ridiculous nonsense of a Ponzi scheme that EU has become. It is a Ponzi scheme and that is precisely why I am convinced it cannot run for much longer. One way or another the truth will out and the visible madness of funding totally insolvent states with more and more loans, which they will never be able to repay is ridiculous. Matter of time.
I do feel a lot better for the change of lifestyle and I wholeheartedly recommend it to anyone who has the health problems that I had and the repeated warnings my consultants to gave me. All well intentioned and entirely good advice. It has made a real difference to my life which would not have gone on for much longer, had I not acted upon the advice!. Apologies for the detour onto the subject of my health, now, back to the subject of this thread!
I really do think the EU is not going to last fir much longer, as the massive conglomeration of states that it has become. The reality of the solvent Northern states contributing far more into the EU and taking out far less than the Mediterranean states who are contributing less and taking out far more is so visibly unfair and unsustainable that I cannot see it continuing. We may be fools but we are not idiots?
For that reason I cannot see that the EU can fail to answer any of the continuing economic failures demonstrated in a number of EU states, without inevitably ensuring that these continuing and worsening failures undermine the whole substance of the supposed strength of the EU. It seems to me that the game has changed and continues changing because the losses created by the QE lending to the insolvent states will never be recovered by the EU. To my mind therefore, the argument is lost. The EU may be able to push this forward for a little longer by undermining the basic strength within the EU monetary system. But the EU cannot put the problems right and the debt will be lost. They may gain time but they do not have any answers.
I have said on several occasions that, much as I would like the UK to exit the EU, for all the reasons I posted earlier, I regret to say I think the fear ploy played by the Remain camp has worked and a majority in the UK will vote to remain. However for all the reasons above I do not think the ploy will last for long.
I must agree with the posts of steveT350C, EM5ER, Slow_poke and V8RX7 on the ridiculous nonsense of a Ponzi scheme that EU has become. It is a Ponzi scheme and that is precisely why I am convinced it cannot run for much longer. One way or another the truth will out and the visible madness of funding totally insolvent states with more and more loans, which they will never be able to repay is ridiculous. Matter of time.
V8RX7 said:
I think it will support Brexit.
The "educated" who need stability have concentrated on the financial aspect and don't understand the gut instinct of the masses who are proud to be British even if they don't know why. They don't trust the government and they certainly don't like nor trust the EU, the only issue is whether they can be bothered to get off the sofa to vote.
It looks like they could.The "educated" who need stability have concentrated on the financial aspect and don't understand the gut instinct of the masses who are proud to be British even if they don't know why. They don't trust the government and they certainly don't like nor trust the EU, the only issue is whether they can be bothered to get off the sofa to vote.
When can we have a referendum on slashing the number of MPs / Members of the House of Lords ?
The Don of Croy said:
Well the Beeb are running with 'weak pound' and economic instability quite strongly...it's our problem now.
How soon will MEP's have to get a proper job?
At least 2 years away and probably more although I suppose there may be some elections still in the intervening period? Due process and all that.How soon will MEP's have to get a proper job?
Well here we are again except that the UK has voted to leave the EU by a sizeable majority and the Prime Minister has announced his resignation, and indicated that he intends to leave office in October and awaits a conservative party selection of a new prime minister. I must record my appreciation of the kind words of Sam All and B'astard Child on here. Good to hear that somebody likes it! 
. Good to hear also, from LongQ, V8RX7, All_that_jazz, and The_Don_of_Troy!
I think it would be wrong not to record the fact that Cameron made one totally unforced and most serious mistake. He asked the Electorate a question, without knowing the answer that they would give. Fundamental error that all lawyers are warned repeatedly never to make in any circumstance, because of the risk of the unexpected answer. Too Cocky by half and now has paid the price. Entirely self inflicted mistake.
Disaster for Cameron, personally, who threw away several years of future office, with that utterly avoidable mistake. Totally unforced and silly error. He could easily have run the situation for literally years yet. On a whim, he changed the future totally for himself, the country, many of his colleagues and friends and indeed for the EU and all the member states within the EU.
Make no mistake this is a body blow to the EU. In the past repeated elections have been held and reheld in member countries within the EU under pressure from the EU to ensure their ultimate decision is to the liking of the EU and that has resulted in the EU approved decision being obtained.
The EU knew as soon as the decision was announced there ppwas no hope of this with the UK, which is made of rather different stuff. We do not, as a nation, give in easily, as a significant number of wars, have demonstrated.
As I have reminded this forum before Harold Wilson, a very clever politician, once said, "A week in politics is a very long time". The events of the last few days have underlined, once again, just how apposite that comment was. Total game change in three days for literally millions and millions of people. Politics can be a very changeable business.
The Labour party seem to have reverted to type with internecine wars breaking out and demands for the resignation of Corbyn, who is clearly out of his depth totally. However he was elected not long ago with massive support from the rank and file Labour party members. They like his style, more's the pity!
Many in the Labour party seem to prefer, prolonged internecine scraps, to actually getting into political power. Tony Blair with the support of Mandelson and Alistair Cameron actually managed to hold the troops in check and gained the most resounding victory that Labour have had in 50 years. He then went on to feather his own nest which was a real pity. Power corrupts I am afraid. A pariah in the Labour camp nowadays, and I can see no capable replacement within Labour whatsoever currently. Hence my comments.
. Good to hear also, from LongQ, V8RX7, All_that_jazz, and The_Don_of_Troy!I think it would be wrong not to record the fact that Cameron made one totally unforced and most serious mistake. He asked the Electorate a question, without knowing the answer that they would give. Fundamental error that all lawyers are warned repeatedly never to make in any circumstance, because of the risk of the unexpected answer. Too Cocky by half and now has paid the price. Entirely self inflicted mistake.
Disaster for Cameron, personally, who threw away several years of future office, with that utterly avoidable mistake. Totally unforced and silly error. He could easily have run the situation for literally years yet. On a whim, he changed the future totally for himself, the country, many of his colleagues and friends and indeed for the EU and all the member states within the EU.
Make no mistake this is a body blow to the EU. In the past repeated elections have been held and reheld in member countries within the EU under pressure from the EU to ensure their ultimate decision is to the liking of the EU and that has resulted in the EU approved decision being obtained.
The EU knew as soon as the decision was announced there ppwas no hope of this with the UK, which is made of rather different stuff. We do not, as a nation, give in easily, as a significant number of wars, have demonstrated.
As I have reminded this forum before Harold Wilson, a very clever politician, once said, "A week in politics is a very long time". The events of the last few days have underlined, once again, just how apposite that comment was. Total game change in three days for literally millions and millions of people. Politics can be a very changeable business.
The Labour party seem to have reverted to type with internecine wars breaking out and demands for the resignation of Corbyn, who is clearly out of his depth totally. However he was elected not long ago with massive support from the rank and file Labour party members. They like his style, more's the pity!
Many in the Labour party seem to prefer, prolonged internecine scraps, to actually getting into political power. Tony Blair with the support of Mandelson and Alistair Cameron actually managed to hold the troops in check and gained the most resounding victory that Labour have had in 50 years. He then went on to feather his own nest which was a real pity. Power corrupts I am afraid. A pariah in the Labour camp nowadays, and I can see no capable replacement within Labour whatsoever currently. Hence my comments.
Steffan said:
I think it would be wrong not to record the fact that Cameron made one totally unforced and most serious mistake. He asked the Electorate a question, without knowing the answer that they would give. Fundamental error that all lawyers are warned repeatedly never to make in any circumstance, because of the risk of the unexpected answer. Too Cocky by half and now has paid the price. Entirely self inflicted mistake.
Disaster for Cameron, personally, who threw away several years of future office, with that utterly avoidable mistake. Totally unforced and silly error. He could easily have run the situation for literally years yet. On a whim, he changed the future totally for himself, the country, many of his colleagues and friends and indeed for the EU and all the member states within the EU.
This is why it was so important that the UK vote to leave. A poke in the eye to the political elite and a triumph of British democracy over European statism. Disaster for Cameron, personally, who threw away several years of future office, with that utterly avoidable mistake. Totally unforced and silly error. He could easily have run the situation for literally years yet. On a whim, he changed the future totally for himself, the country, many of his colleagues and friends and indeed for the EU and all the member states within the EU.
Thank goodness Cameron asked the question... it was the right thing to do.
Steffan you stay well - I've no love for the EU but the Euro does make holiday currency reusable year after years so I don't mind if the core countries keep it.....
Yeah I do still have bags of francs and other pre Euro currencies - not of any significant value but at least Euros I can use year after year
Yeah I do still have bags of francs and other pre Euro currencies - not of any significant value but at least Euros I can use year after year
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