Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[stongle]

Politicians are generally self serving sh*t bags. It's really no surprise that dissent at the status quo played this way (given a small benefit of hindsight). Trump is another manifestation of this. If you are not upper middle class with equity in something (house, shs whatever), where's the upside - you can't loose voting out.

Italy came out today and asked to support their banks (a no no under EU rules) given Brexit concerns, and others are calling for updated bank stress tests. I still believe that we should be "in", but regardless of the populist immigration vote, I see the reasons for out. I met a major US bank today and talk is to relocate 7k staff out of 15. This is absolute worse case scenario, so don't think our finance hit is terminal (if no passport), but maybe the UK has to start thinking fiscal over monetary policy (as I have advocated previously with a quasi sovereign wealth fund) to prepare for the future. The problem with that approach is liberal thinking. Our problem was never immigration, but a society that did not encourage work (benefits too easy) or support (top up) contributors to UK plc.

Europe is a master of kicking the can down the road, Brexit is a wake up call, with a vacant UK leadership we are at risk they discover a stealy resolve missing to date. If not, they will inevitably suffer the same if not worse fate UK will. We may have played a blinder or we may get a rodding of epic, epic proportions.

[Steffan]

stongle said:

Politicians are generally self serving sh*t bags. It's really no surprise that dissent at the status quo played this way (given a small benefit of hindsight). Trump is another manifestation of this. If you are not upper middle class with equity in something (house, shs whatever), where's the upside - you can't loose voting out.

Italy came out today and asked to support their banks (a no no under EU rules) given Brexit concerns, and others are calling for updated bank stress tests. I still believe that we should be "in", but regardless of the populist immigration vote, I see the reasons for out. I met a major US bank today and talk is to relocate 7k staff out of 15. This is absolute worse case scenario, so don't think our finance hit is terminal (if no passport), but maybe the UK has to start thinking fiscal over monetary policy (as I have advocated previously with a quasi sovereign wealth fund) to prepare for the future. The problem with that approach is liberal thinking. Our problem was never immigration, but a society that did not encourage work (benefits too easy) or support (top up) contributors to UK plc.

Europe is a master of kicking the can down the road, Brexit is a wake up call, with a vacant UK leadership we are at risk they discover a stealy resolve missing to date. If not, they will inevitably suffer the same if not worse fate UK will. We may have played a blinder or we may get a rodding of epic, epic proportions.

Good post and the changing attitude in Europe post the Brexit vote needs careful watching. The Labour party are continuing with their internicene wars and who knows where that will end? I do think there are alternative candidates pacing the ring and I do think it probable that Corbyn will not be able to continue in office with this much serious concern and reiterated resignation calls. More than two thirds of the Labour MPs have declared dissatisfaction. However who knows what happens next with ths crowd?

I have read an article today by Geofferey Roberston in the guardian entitled 'How to stop Brext: get your MP to vote it down', which i commend.It certainly raises the possibility of the vote being effectively not acted upon. I think ths would cause major ructions with serious risks of considerable unrest and a great deal of concern, amongst the electorate. But this possibility is definitely being raised and where does that take us to?.

Probably the most unsettled period in British politics in my lifetime. Remarkable what one Referendum can do? I think time is definitely needed before we can see exactly how this is going to be resolved. The exit vote has effectively changed the entire future of our country. However the implementation of the process will take literally years to actually be effective. There are not going to be any quick fixes.

The politicians led by the biggest loser Cameron, have enacted their own nemesis. Cameron is leaving, Osbourne has ruined his leadership challenge, Boris is jockeying for position, a number of Tory MP's are sounding out their candidacy within the party including Theresa May. The Labour party is doing an excellent headless chicken impression. I do not think we can as yet make much of a real stab at how this will pan out. But the conseqences of that decision are gradually emanating through British politics. I am certain major changes are coming. But exactly how, where and when is another matter.

We are the at the beginning of the most major political and economic changes this country has ever faced, post WWII. But those changes are ony coming directly as a result of this decision. It will be regarded as an absolute Landmark for Britain. But it is going to take some time.

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 28th June 21:07

[craig7l]

Steffan said:

I have read an article today by Geofferey Roberston in the guardian entitled 'How to stop Brext: get your MP to vote it down', which i commend.It certainly raises the possibility of the vote being effectively not acted upon. I think ths would cause major ructions with serious risks of considerable unrest and a great deal of concern, amongst the electorate. But this possibility is definitely being raised and where does that take us to?

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 28th June 21:07

Democracy certainly doesn't seem popular with the Guardian. Fuelling the champagne socialists with distorted reasoning and doing all it can to reverse a majority decision.
However, I'm hopeful common sense of the wishes of individual MPs constituencies and the general good will guidance of our current PM in quashing ideas that the Brexit process can be stopped will prevail.
The world is now looking on demanding democracy is executed.

[slow_poke]

craig7l said:

Steffan said:

I have read an article today by Geofferey Roberston in the guardian entitled 'How to stop Brext: get your MP to vote it down', which i commend.It certainly raises the possibility of the vote being effectively not acted upon. I think ths would cause major ructions with serious risks of considerable unrest and a great deal of concern, amongst the electorate. But this possibility is definitely being raised and where does that take us to?

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 28th June 21:07

Democracy certainly doesn't seem popular with the Guardian. Fuelling the champagne socialists with distorted reasoning and doing all it can to reverse a majority decision.
However, I'm hopeful common sense of the wishes of individual MPs constituencies and the general good will guidance of our current PM in quashing ideas that the Brexit process can be stopped will prevail.
The world is now looking on demanding democracy is executed.

the referendum was advisory only. It could've been mandatory, like that other recent one. As ever now, it's the job of the elected MPs to make the decision.

[Mr Whippy]

slow_poke said:

craig7l said:

Steffan said:

I have read an article today by Geofferey Roberston in the guardian entitled 'How to stop Brext: get your MP to vote it down', which i commend.It certainly raises the possibility of the vote being effectively not acted upon. I think ths would cause major ructions with serious risks of considerable unrest and a great deal of concern, amongst the electorate. But this possibility is definitely being raised and where does that take us to?

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 28th June 21:07

Democracy certainly doesn't seem popular with the Guardian. Fuelling the champagne socialists with distorted reasoning and doing all it can to reverse a majority decision.
However, I'm hopeful common sense of the wishes of individual MPs constituencies and the general good will guidance of our current PM in quashing ideas that the Brexit process can be stopped will prevail.
The world is now looking on demanding democracy is executed.

the referendum was advisory only. It could've been mandatory, like that other recent one. As ever now, it's the job of the elected MPs to make the decision.

We most likely had a referendum because the Conservatives realised they'd lose lots of votes to UKIP if they too didn't offer a stick to the clearly huge number of voters who wanted a choice on EU membership.

The same issue would be true at the next general elections, if we don't now act upon the referendum result.

I can see UKIP gaining a huge amount of traction if the voters desires are not respected.

[PRTVR]

Mr Whippy said:

slow_poke said:

craig7l said:

Steffan said:

I have read an article today by Geofferey Roberston in the guardian entitled 'How to stop Brext: get your MP to vote it down', which i commend.It certainly raises the possibility of the vote being effectively not acted upon. I think ths would cause major ructions with serious risks of considerable unrest and a great deal of concern, amongst the electorate. But this possibility is definitely being raised and where does that take us to?

Edited by Steffan on Tuesday 28th June 21:07

Democracy certainly doesn't seem popular with the Guardian. Fuelling the champagne socialists with distorted reasoning and doing all it can to reverse a majority decision.
However, I'm hopeful common sense of the wishes of individual MPs constituencies and the general good will guidance of our current PM in quashing ideas that the Brexit process can be stopped will prevail.
The world is now looking on demanding democracy is executed.

the referendum was advisory only. It could've been mandatory, like that other recent one. As ever now, it's the job of the elected MPs to make the decision.

We most likely had a referendum because the Conservatives realised they'd lose lots of votes to UKIP if they too didn't offer a stick to the clearly huge number of voters who wanted a choice on EU membership.

The same issue would be true at the next general elections, if we don't now act upon the referendum result.

I can see UKIP gaining a huge amount of traction if the voters desires are not respected.

Totally agree, I can see the ukip poster, you have been denied democracy by the ruling elite of all parties, for democracy vote ukip.

[Gargamel]

The issue as I see it now is far more subtle and nuanced than was presented during the Referendum campaign.

Having agreed that Britain should exit the EU, we have a substantial number of practical problems, and a need for a deal to allow our interests and those of Europe to form a new relationship.

Our politicians in both parties largely aligned with remain, and hence are not well placed to lead now, on the other hand many of the leavers (politicians) are also flawed in some respects, mostly for not having had power or for being swivel eyed loons

Yet for Europe, Brexit is both opportunity and threat, now those that want "ever closer union" see the chance to forge on, without the British constantly pulling back. Others in Europe who prefer a broad and shallow approach to Europe are honestly very concerned now about the loss of the cheerleader for a wide area Europe with clear limits on sovereignty.

The Eurozone needs a trade deal with the UK, it is already in crisis.

Additionally the ECB have spent trillions in trying to lower the currency level, Brexit has made UK trade more competitive and that could still be significant, especially if we move quickly to secure non EU trade deals and ignore EU tariffs.

I suspect we aren't agile enough to seize the moment right now, but in six months we could be well placed.

[hidetheelephants]

Gargamel said:

Our politicians in both parties largely aligned with remain, and hence are not well placed to lead now, on the other hand many of the leavers (politicians) are also flawed in some respects, mostly for not having had power or for being swivel eyed loons

Gove, Davis, Hooey, Stuart, Carswell and Hannan are reasonably free of ocular rotation and Gove and Hooey have been ministers and Davis a whip and shadow home secretary, so there is a core of experienced and socially acceptable leavers.

[Steffan]

Interesting to see the comments of Gargamel and  Hide the elephants  who have been posting on here for some time. I entirely agree with their sentiments! 

TBH I think that everyone is somewhat dumbfounded by the appalling antics that the two major Political Parties in the UK are indulging in  currently.  I am using the term indulging advisedly, because niether of the two parties appears to have the slightest concern for responsibility in government, nor indeed any effective response to the changes demanded by the Referendum!
 
The whole business has become an inward looking, personal self promotion point scoring Game, for two organisations who have no interest whatsoever in actually having an effective plan that reflects the massive changes that the Referendum has demanded. The biggest changes in political changes in 70 years and what are our 'Leaders and Shakers doing? 

Squabbling over who does what, who gets which job, whilst procrastinating en masse and not actually even beginning the process of sorting out this mess. 

Boris is currently the bookies favourite as well he should be as visibly the best supporter of the Leave campaign, whose personal intervention In the Leave campaign, undoubtedly assisted in getting the necessary support. Remarkably a number of Conservative MPs are seriously suggesting that one of the Remain supporters could actually lead their  party?? 

Please!! The biggest result in decades, totally changing our future and totally changing the future of Europe and someone seriously thinks a Remain campaigner who must have been so of out of touch that they were completely unaware what the voters were really concerned about, could actually be a credible candidate! Where do these people live?

It all makes delay compounded by delay, with further delay and yet further delay adding to the boiling pot! At this rate it will take decades to get out of the EU. Politicians are so focused  on their personal position and personal income and personal standing, that  they clearly have no time for reality politics. 

The Labour party are steadily moving further and further away from being even faintly electable.  An awful  lot of work is getting further and further behind whilst these political parodies continue.  We need a rapid decision on who will lead the Conservatives and a full timetable to identify how  quickly the process demanded by the referendum can actually be achieved. 

I am not holding my breath!!

[SlimJim16v]

Well said. The lead up to the referendum showed all that's bad in politics and politicians. The aftermath is possibly worse, with the media's doom and gloom making things even worse.

[Andy Zarse]

Driller said:

Andy Zarse said:

Fella on the right looks like he's up for it

BTW what happened to Mermaid?

Dunno. He wasn't with us...

Steffan? Anyone?

[Steffan]

Andy Zarse said:

Driller said:

Andy Zarse said:

Fella on the right looks like he's up for it

BTW what happened to Mermaid?

Dunno. He wasn't with us...

Steffan? Anyone?

I am still in touch with Mermaid who is well and getting on with his life.

Turning to the recent posts on here it does seem to me that the initial calls for a rerun of the Referendum are now rightly falling away. Thunderbolt today is the seriously unexpected decision of Boris Johnson NOT to stand in the forthcoming Tory party leadership race. Michael Gove is the prime Brexit camp contender. Theresa May has set out an impressive bid to be leader. To my mind any credible Tory government would have to contain Brexit supporters in senior positions.

My guess is that Theresa May is the likely winner and her cabinet will include Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Gove in senior subsidiary roles. Possibly the leading negotiators in the program to pull the UK out of the EU on the best possible terms. Not an easy task, but how better to harness your enemies with years of work stretching out ahead?

We do live in seriously changing and very interesting times. I really do think we are heading, albeit very slowly to Brexit.

[Gargamel]

Political shenanigans aside, it is interesting how individual European countries are making different noises.

Conciliatory tones from France, hostility from Spain and Some of the Eastern Europeans. Perhaps our position should be NOT to do a deal with Europe, but fall back on WTO terms.

I like that New Zealand are ready to send Trade Negotiators to us, we should take them up on that asap.

[Fittster]

Gargamel said:

Political shenanigans aside, it is interesting how individual European countries are making different noises.

Conciliatory tones from France, hostility from Spain and Some of the Eastern Europeans. Perhaps our position should be NOT to do a deal with Europe, but fall back on WTO terms.

I like that New Zealand are ready to send Trade Negotiators to us, we should take them up on that asap.

Can we negotiate until we have left the EU?

[Sam All]

Gargamel said:

Political shenanigans aside, it is interesting how individual European countries are making different noises.

Conciliatory tones from France, hostility from Spain and Some of the Eastern Europeans. Perhaps our position should be NOT to do a deal with Europe, but fall back on WTO terms.

I like that New Zealand are ready to send Trade Negotiators to us, we should take them up on that asap.

As one creaky but familiar old door closes, many new ones will open and we can enter knowing there is no baggage.

[Sam All]

Fittster said:

Can we negotiate until we have left the EU?

We can listen. Juncker was doing the same yesterday when he really ought to have said to sturgeon that he had no authority to meet her in her disgruntled role whilst the UK was still a member - and a paying one at that.

[Andy Zarse]

Sam All said:

Gargamel said:

Political shenanigans aside, it is interesting how individual European countries are making different noises.

Conciliatory tones from France, hostility from Spain and Some of the Eastern Europeans. Perhaps our position should be NOT to do a deal with Europe, but fall back on WTO terms.

I like that New Zealand are ready to send Trade Negotiators to us, we should take them up on that asap.

As one creaky but familiar old door closes, many new ones will open and we can enter knowing there is no baggage.

Feelers can go out for sure with the likes of NZ, Aus and Canada, but although we have the key we have not opened the door yet, let alone closed it on our way out.

Talking of PHers missing in action, does anyone know what happened to Ossie Osmond? I expect he has actually jolly well burst at last week's news!

[Jockman]

Andy Zarse said:

Feelers can go out for sure with the likes of NZ, Aus and Canada, but although we have the key we have not opened the door yet, let alone closed it on our way out.

Talking of PHers missing in action, does anyone know what happened to Ossie Osmond? I expect he has actually jolly well burst at last week's news!

He's still alive and kicking on the Finance forum, Andy.

Not sure exactly what he's kicking though.

[Andy Zarse]

Jockman said:

Andy Zarse said:

Feelers can go out for sure with the likes of NZ, Aus and Canada, but although we have the key we have not opened the door yet, let alone closed it on our way out.

Talking of PHers missing in action, does anyone know what happened to Ossie Osmond? I expect he has actually jolly well burst at last week's news!

He's still alive and kicking on the Finance forum, Andy.

Not sure exactly what he's kicking though.

Thanks. Glad to learn he is alive and well, even if still borderline, well you know.

[Steffan]

Well the slithering toad of the Conservatve party, Gove, has looked after himself very successfully and stabbed Boris Johnson in the back with the result that Boris is no longer a candidate for the PM position. I think Gove must have been taking lessons in Back Stabbing from Milliband, E. 

In conseqence Gove and Theresa May will be pitched against each other once the inititial run has gone through the no hopes Liam Fox,  Steve Crab and Andrea Ledsom have been excluded. I think that  May is very likely to be the winner and Gove will no doubt be given a senior post within the new cabinet very possibly leading the team (?) who will be working to bring into effect the huge changes needed to enact the UK leaving the EU and to ensure that we are leaving on the best possible terms.

Where does that leave Boris? Clever and charismatic man Boris, who on this occasion has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams,  I think. there will be a period of recovery and then Boris will be off again Blazing another new trail in British politics.

Jeremy Corbyn is remarkably resilient given that 70% of the Labour MPs desperately want him gone? John McDonnell seems to be very effectively keeping Jeremy in the game. However I cannot see how this can continue. If there is a ballot in Labour where Corbyn stands I suspect the Momentum pressure group and the Unions could ensure a party vote win for Corbyn. But I cannot see how he could effectively function in Parliament with three quarters of his parliamentary party against him.

Quite remarkable changes in UK politics with more to come as the consequences of Brexit, become more and more apparent, which is inevitable. Not easy to predict how different UK politics will become. But I am very hopeful that the thinkers within UK politics, will quietly recognise in private, that the gulf between the wishes of  the majority and the actual policies of the government in the UK became unsustainably apart. I am hopeful real lessons will be genuinely taken on board. But there are no guarantees.

This was a huge shock, Largely because the government and indeed much of the opposition, mistakenly thought, that the British public  would support their dreams. Huge shock caused by blind stupidity and total failure right across UK politics. I really do hope that the politicians will see the error of their ways and will never again risk being foist by their own petard. However that remains to be seen!!

Well it is now pretty certain that we are going to see year upon year of reform of our relationship with Europe. It seems to me a great many Brexit voters had a series of unanswered and unrecognised, concerns, including sovereignty, immigration, border control and the awful waste caused by the almighty bureaucracy of the EU. 

Above all, the British have never reacted well to beng dictated to by others. Hence the result.

Not our concern now, we are leaving! It will take time, but it IS a fact

Edited by Steffan on Thursday 30th June 20:44