Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Andy Zarse said:
Strangely emough, I think the one thing which will survive the nuclear winter is the actual "trading bloc". It is the currency and the political project which will slowly die of radiation sickness.
The trading bloc concept is, if you like, the endo-skelington
upon which the (now putrifying) flesh of political union and single currency hangs. Like with most dead beings, there's usually absolutely nothing the matter with their skeleton.
So we might actually end up with the organisation we thought we were joining all those years ago ? The trading bloc concept is, if you like, the endo-skelington
upon which the (now putrifying) flesh of political union and single currency hangs. Like with most dead beings, there's usually absolutely nothing the matter with their skeleton. Heath truly was a visionary.mph said:
Andy Zarse said:
Strangely emough, I think the one thing which will survive the nuclear winter is the actual "trading bloc". It is the currency and the political project which will slowly die of radiation sickness.
The trading bloc concept is, if you like, the endo-skelington upon which the (now putrifying) flesh of political union and single currency hangs. Like with most dead beings, there's usually absolutely nothing the matter with their skeleton.
So we might actually end up with the organisation we thought we were joining all those years ago ? The trading bloc concept is, if you like, the endo-skelington
upon which the (now putrifying) flesh of political union and single currency hangs. Like with most dead beings, there's usually absolutely nothing the matter with their skeleton. Heath truly was a visionary.
Steffan said:
We are I think the second highest contributor in the EU? Not a good place to be for us and we are coming out! The extent of the fudges and lack of transparency wthin so much f the activities of the EU and the 10,000 bureaucrats all earning more than Cameron was too much for the UK I think?
We were the 2nd highest NET Contributor in 2013 but the 4th highest NET Contributor in 2014 as France and Italy squeezed past us (marginally).No figures for 2015 yet.
Just a brief note from me (I makes a change!) on the Italian banking crisis which seems to be getting serious steam up see:
https://www.rt.com/business/349690-italy-banks-cri...
However clever Draghi may be and however many times the EU uses QE to bail out hopelessly insolvent Sovereign Stares there will come a point when this lot crashes because no one can fool all the people all the time!
France has exactly the same banking problem again without any means to actually manage the problem! Germany cannot carry all these passengers! My concern is becoming serious because with the timetable currently being suggested for Brexit there really must be a chance that the economic baloon will go up before the UK has actually completed our exit?
Too many problems are appearing in the EU for this serious state of affairs not to cause further problems as market players and observers begin to see where this is going? To my mind there is no hope that the fiscal integration of the EU will now take place and without that fiscal integration the EU cannot successfully hide these glaring and very serious difficulties for long. I hope that the new Uk government hits the ground running because otherwise we could still be within the EU when this lot blows up!
https://www.rt.com/business/349690-italy-banks-cri...
However clever Draghi may be and however many times the EU uses QE to bail out hopelessly insolvent Sovereign Stares there will come a point when this lot crashes because no one can fool all the people all the time!
France has exactly the same banking problem again without any means to actually manage the problem! Germany cannot carry all these passengers! My concern is becoming serious because with the timetable currently being suggested for Brexit there really must be a chance that the economic baloon will go up before the UK has actually completed our exit?
Too many problems are appearing in the EU for this serious state of affairs not to cause further problems as market players and observers begin to see where this is going? To my mind there is no hope that the fiscal integration of the EU will now take place and without that fiscal integration the EU cannot successfully hide these glaring and very serious difficulties for long. I hope that the new Uk government hits the ground running because otherwise we could still be within the EU when this lot blows up!
Steffan,
Thank you for your regular kind words about my ramblings. I'm not sure they are in any way deserved but I do my best to try to approach things from as neutral a perspective as seems reasonable under whatever circumstances are prevailing.
It is interesting to see concerns about the State of Italian banks coming from so many apparently separate and nominally independent sources.
And the French seem to be close behind - closer very quickly if the Italians hit the skids.
Then we have some observers suggesting that Deutsche Bank may be a problem.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36723034
So let's see .... that means that, according to the info provided a few post above, some if not all the banks in the EU's 3 biggest contributors in 2013 and 2014 are, potentially, in some significant trouble.
Could we yet see (briefly) Eurofighter dogfights over the channel if off-shore Europe comes to blame the UK for some future banking collapse?
I note too that the Isle of Man is not in the UK or the EU. How does it survive? Especially as it has a higher population growth rate than the UK.
Finally there must be many in the markets and finance who are playing the Brexit game and seeking to make as much money from it as they can. Soros wannabes.
Forgetting the dollar for a moment the Euro exchange rate is about the same as it was when I opened a Euro business account about 4 years ago. It then started to rise devaluing my Euro holding in terms of its Sterling value. I am now back to parity, more or less.
Time for the next exchange rate cycle to develop.
The Euro may yet be riding higher than it should after more Draghi words. How many times will "whatever it takes" be accepted?
The dollar could be interesting as the US election drama unfolds. It may not matter for long who wins - someone somewhere will engineer something to happen in the markets. If they can.
If an Article 50 based Brexit is to happen speedily - and I think there are many people in the UK and in Europe who might prevent that or, given that Article 50 is meant to take no more that 2 years as I understand it, would seek to create unnecessary difficulties during the negotiations for maximum disruption - everyone involved will need to be co-operating and "on top of their game".
So, we are expecting the UK politicians and Civil Servants along with the EU politicians and Civil Servants to be working effectively. Together. In some form of harmony.
Hmm.
If that happens it would indeed prove that the "the Project" has truly influenced social and political matter on the European Continent as originally envisaged. One could then propose that such success meant that the Project could complete and the EU should be disbanded to see if the changes would stick in the absence of the bureaucracy and without the need to dismantle whatever degree of democracy the so called Sovereign States still possess.
It's unlikely to happen, of course. However one might sort of marvel and the results of dismantling the USSR and how its constituent parts (and not a few of its citizens) seem to have done better individually than was likely as a whole.
I don't claim it's an entirely equitable result but would it have been better for the Union if it had held together?
Thank you for your regular kind words about my ramblings. I'm not sure they are in any way deserved but I do my best to try to approach things from as neutral a perspective as seems reasonable under whatever circumstances are prevailing.
It is interesting to see concerns about the State of Italian banks coming from so many apparently separate and nominally independent sources.
And the French seem to be close behind - closer very quickly if the Italians hit the skids.
Then we have some observers suggesting that Deutsche Bank may be a problem.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36723034
So let's see .... that means that, according to the info provided a few post above, some if not all the banks in the EU's 3 biggest contributors in 2013 and 2014 are, potentially, in some significant trouble.
Could we yet see (briefly) Eurofighter dogfights over the channel if off-shore Europe comes to blame the UK for some future banking collapse?
I note too that the Isle of Man is not in the UK or the EU. How does it survive? Especially as it has a higher population growth rate than the UK.
Finally there must be many in the markets and finance who are playing the Brexit game and seeking to make as much money from it as they can. Soros wannabes.
Forgetting the dollar for a moment the Euro exchange rate is about the same as it was when I opened a Euro business account about 4 years ago. It then started to rise devaluing my Euro holding in terms of its Sterling value. I am now back to parity, more or less.
Time for the next exchange rate cycle to develop.
The Euro may yet be riding higher than it should after more Draghi words. How many times will "whatever it takes" be accepted?
The dollar could be interesting as the US election drama unfolds. It may not matter for long who wins - someone somewhere will engineer something to happen in the markets. If they can.
If an Article 50 based Brexit is to happen speedily - and I think there are many people in the UK and in Europe who might prevent that or, given that Article 50 is meant to take no more that 2 years as I understand it, would seek to create unnecessary difficulties during the negotiations for maximum disruption - everyone involved will need to be co-operating and "on top of their game".
So, we are expecting the UK politicians and Civil Servants along with the EU politicians and Civil Servants to be working effectively. Together. In some form of harmony.
Hmm.
If that happens it would indeed prove that the "the Project" has truly influenced social and political matter on the European Continent as originally envisaged. One could then propose that such success meant that the Project could complete and the EU should be disbanded to see if the changes would stick in the absence of the bureaucracy and without the need to dismantle whatever degree of democracy the so called Sovereign States still possess.
It's unlikely to happen, of course. However one might sort of marvel and the results of dismantling the USSR and how its constituent parts (and not a few of its citizens) seem to have done better individually than was likely as a whole.
I don't claim it's an entirely equitable result but would it have been better for the Union if it had held together?
LongQ said:
Steffan,
Thank you for your regular kind words about my ramblings. I'm not sure they are in any way deserved but I do my best to try to approach things from as neutral a perspective as seems reasonable under whatever circumstances are prevailing.
It is interesting to see concerns about the State of Italian banks coming from so many apparently separate and nominally independent sources.
And the French seem to be close behind - closer very quickly if the Italians hit the skids.
Then we have some observers suggesting that Deutsche Bank may be a problem.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36723034
So let's see .... that means that, according to the info provided a few post above, some if not all the banks in the EU's 3 biggest contributors in 2013 and 2014 are, potentially, in some significant trouble.
Could we yet see (briefly) Eurofighter dogfights over the channel if off-shore Europe comes to blame the UK for some future banking collapse?
I note too that the Isle of Man is not in the UK or the EU. How does it survive? Especially as it has a higher population growth rate than the UK.
Finally there must be many in the markets and finance who are playing the Brexit game and seeking to make as much money from it as they can. Soros wannabes.
Forgetting the dollar for a moment the Euro exchange rate is about the same as it was when I opened a Euro business account about 4 years ago. It then started to rise devaluing my Euro holding in terms of its Sterling value. I am now back to parity, more or less.
Time for the next exchange rate cycle to develop.
The Euro may yet be riding higher than it should after more Draghi words. How many times will "whatever it takes" be accepted?
The dollar could be interesting as the US election drama unfolds. It may not matter for long who wins - someone somewhere will engineer something to happen in the markets. If they can.
If an Article 50 based Brexit is to happen speedily - and I think there are many people in the UK and in Europe who might prevent that or, given that Article 50 is meant to take no more that 2 years as I understand it, would seek to create unnecessary difficulties during the negotiations for maximum disruption - everyone involved will need to be co-operating and "on top of their game".
So, we are expecting the UK politicians and Civil Servants along with the EU politicians and Civil Servants to be working effectively. Together. In some form of harmony.
Hmm.
If that happens it would indeed prove that the "the Project" has truly influenced social and political matter on the European Continent as originally envisaged. One could then propose that such success meant that the Project could complete and the EU should be disbanded to see if the changes would stick in the absence of the bureaucracy and without the need to dismantle whatever degree of democracy the so called Sovereign States still possess.
It's unlikely to happen, of course. However one might sort of marvel and the results of dismantling the USSR and how its constituent parts (and not a few of its citizens) seem to have done better individually than was likely as a whole.
I don't claim it's an entirely equitable result but would it have been better for the Union if it had held together?
I think my comments on your many posting are distinctly spposite! As ever with your latest tome you are on the button again!! There are a number of posters on PH who regularly provide far better insight on current matters than the entire dreadful media can manage! It really is interesting to read many of these contributions because they are fresh, considered and sensible. Compare this to the fawning incompetent and totally rehashed political output that we get from the media. The media is rapidly becoming bad news for free speech in the UK!Thank you for your regular kind words about my ramblings. I'm not sure they are in any way deserved but I do my best to try to approach things from as neutral a perspective as seems reasonable under whatever circumstances are prevailing.
It is interesting to see concerns about the State of Italian banks coming from so many apparently separate and nominally independent sources.
And the French seem to be close behind - closer very quickly if the Italians hit the skids.
Then we have some observers suggesting that Deutsche Bank may be a problem.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36723034
So let's see .... that means that, according to the info provided a few post above, some if not all the banks in the EU's 3 biggest contributors in 2013 and 2014 are, potentially, in some significant trouble.
Could we yet see (briefly) Eurofighter dogfights over the channel if off-shore Europe comes to blame the UK for some future banking collapse?
I note too that the Isle of Man is not in the UK or the EU. How does it survive? Especially as it has a higher population growth rate than the UK.
Finally there must be many in the markets and finance who are playing the Brexit game and seeking to make as much money from it as they can. Soros wannabes.
Forgetting the dollar for a moment the Euro exchange rate is about the same as it was when I opened a Euro business account about 4 years ago. It then started to rise devaluing my Euro holding in terms of its Sterling value. I am now back to parity, more or less.
Time for the next exchange rate cycle to develop.
The Euro may yet be riding higher than it should after more Draghi words. How many times will "whatever it takes" be accepted?
The dollar could be interesting as the US election drama unfolds. It may not matter for long who wins - someone somewhere will engineer something to happen in the markets. If they can.
If an Article 50 based Brexit is to happen speedily - and I think there are many people in the UK and in Europe who might prevent that or, given that Article 50 is meant to take no more that 2 years as I understand it, would seek to create unnecessary difficulties during the negotiations for maximum disruption - everyone involved will need to be co-operating and "on top of their game".
So, we are expecting the UK politicians and Civil Servants along with the EU politicians and Civil Servants to be working effectively. Together. In some form of harmony.
Hmm.
If that happens it would indeed prove that the "the Project" has truly influenced social and political matter on the European Continent as originally envisaged. One could then propose that such success meant that the Project could complete and the EU should be disbanded to see if the changes would stick in the absence of the bureaucracy and without the need to dismantle whatever degree of democracy the so called Sovereign States still possess.
It's unlikely to happen, of course. However one might sort of marvel and the results of dismantling the USSR and how its constituent parts (and not a few of its citizens) seem to have done better individually than was likely as a whole.
I don't claim it's an entirely equitable result but would it have been better for the Union if it had held together?
I do agree there is a substantial possibility that the remaining, Remainers (I love the English language) do try to slow thing down out of spite or fear! We could well see this taking a very considerable time to implement?
I also share your concerns that since the EU has never worked effectively, except when ensuring that the bureaucrats and politicians are all doing well on the EU gravy train, there does seem to be the question of whether, in fact, the EU can do anything useful. Unsurprisingly, perhaps I personally seriously doubt that the they can!
Your observation that a great many Russian oligarcs, found that the collapse of Communist Russia singularly advantagous and that, generally, the Soviet block does seem to be surviving, does suggest that many of the EU states will survive and continue when the fall comes.
What cannot continue is fraud on this scale by the EU! Billions wasted weekly to support totally insolvent states in an economic union that does not have a common central fiscal administration and now never will have such an administration! In direct consequence the EU will fail because the EU cannot actually address any of the fundamental weaknesses within the fiscally independent Sovereign states within the EU!
How the EU thought this could work with such fundamentally different Sovereign States I simply do not understand? Possibly because the personal gravy train this offered, to those who supported the plutocrat lifestyles offered by the opportunities to benefit within such a poorly managed operation, were in fact the sole motivator!
Being something of a cynic I regret to say that personal aggrandisement and security has become, the only motive for a great many modern politicians. Tony Blair and Sarkozy to name but two! Add Gordon Brown, the Kinnock family in all its forms and it really does underline the greed that motivates the structures favoured by so many modern politician's.
I am absolutely certain that the End really is Nigh for the mess that is now, the EU, since our Brexit event occurred! The total shock in Europe has been massive! Given the dreamland nonsense policies that the EU politicians have been followingin, order to fill their own personal pockets, for so long, very much, not before time!!
Edited by Steffan on Wednesday 6th July 23:33
As is regularly observed in this thread it is all about the politics. What can Merkel concede and still remain electable at home. plus what really is her appetite to stay in power now,
I find it interesting that so many UK politicians have resigned, but no EU leaders have even been considered accountable that one of the core members have exited.
So what are the politics, heads in sand springs to mind. If Marie let Pen makes it to the final ticket for the Presidency of France might that be the moment Europe starts to pay attention to the disenfranchised?
We now the EU can walk all over domestic politics in the small and weak countries, but can it do it to France, it didn't work on the UK population.
Troubled times for the project, but also an opportunity to run ahead, I don't think the current crop of leaders are well prepared to to seize the moment and enforce economic harmonisation, socialise the debt across Europe and drive real convergence without the 'brake' of the UK
I find it interesting that so many UK politicians have resigned, but no EU leaders have even been considered accountable that one of the core members have exited.
So what are the politics, heads in sand springs to mind. If Marie let Pen makes it to the final ticket for the Presidency of France might that be the moment Europe starts to pay attention to the disenfranchised?
We now the EU can walk all over domestic politics in the small and weak countries, but can it do it to France, it didn't work on the UK population.
Troubled times for the project, but also an opportunity to run ahead, I don't think the current crop of leaders are well prepared to to seize the moment and enforce economic harmonisation, socialise the debt across Europe and drive real convergence without the 'brake' of the UK
Gargamel said:
As is regularly observed in this thread it is all about the politics. What can Merkel concede and still remain electable at home. plus what really is her appetite to stay in power now,
I find it interesting that so many UK politicians have resigned, but no EU leaders have even been considered accountable that one of the core members have exited.
So what are the politics, heads in sand springs to mind. If Marie let Pen makes it to the final ticket for the Presidency of France might that be the moment Europe starts to pay attention to the disenfranchised?
We now the EU can walk all over domestic politics in the small and weak countries, but can it do it to France, it didn't work on the UK population.
Troubled times for the project, but also an opportunity to run ahead, I don't think the current crop of leaders are well prepared to to seize the moment and enforce economic harmonisation, socialise the debt across Europe and drive real convergence without the 'brake' of the UK
Merkel could dictate a sensible Brexit plan that is seen as a win-win. She needs to drive this, not the Brussels Sprouts.I find it interesting that so many UK politicians have resigned, but no EU leaders have even been considered accountable that one of the core members have exited.
So what are the politics, heads in sand springs to mind. If Marie let Pen makes it to the final ticket for the Presidency of France might that be the moment Europe starts to pay attention to the disenfranchised?
We now the EU can walk all over domestic politics in the small and weak countries, but can it do it to France, it didn't work on the UK population.
Troubled times for the project, but also an opportunity to run ahead, I don't think the current crop of leaders are well prepared to to seize the moment and enforce economic harmonisation, socialise the debt across Europe and drive real convergence without the 'brake' of the UK
mikees said:
Guys, is there an easy to understand article I can point wifey at that explains the whole euro mess including Greek bail out and risk of the other PIGS? I'm having trouble explaining the multiple dimensions (GDP, loans, repayments, loans to repay interest, failure to pay public employees, exchange rates and wage differentials etc making southern countries less attractive etc etc etc)
Thanks
Mike
Worth getting her to read this too, explains well why many would like to blame Brexit for the inevitable collapse that was going to happen anyway. Thanks
Mike
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-06/its-not-b...
Whilst wastage and fraud have been huge issues in Europe, I think one of the major culprits (of many), is the over reliance on monetary policy and the build up of leverage in the system. It should have been obvious to all that given the make up of Greece ECB policy would never work, Draghi has kicked the can down the road and made future crystallisation of losses much worse (at the same time increasing bank solvency buffers or costs banks have little incentive to lend anyway). If you then look at how the Basel III accords require banks to hold huge buffers of Sovereign Debt - often with equal ranking, the economic woes of the Euro are almost entirely political in making.
As for Italian banks, well if their capital buffers can't stand the volitility of Brexit week it does appear the writing is on the wall. Interesting that Carney has reduced capital burden for UK banks....
As for Italian banks, well if their capital buffers can't stand the volitility of Brexit week it does appear the writing is on the wall. Interesting that Carney has reduced capital burden for UK banks....
gizlaroc said:
mikees said:
Guys, is there an easy to understand article I can point wifey at that explains the whole euro mess including Greek bail out and risk of the other PIGS? I'm having trouble explaining the multiple dimensions (GDP, loans, repayments, loans to repay interest, failure to pay public employees, exchange rates and wage differentials etc making southern countries less attractive etc etc etc)
Thanks
Mike
Worth getting her to read this too, explains well why many would like to blame Brexit for the inevitable collapse that was going to happen anyway. Thanks
Mike
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-06/its-not-b...
QE and the inflation of the stock market is for the benefit of the elite, at the cost of the masses.
It was a bubble that was about to burst, the politicians and the banks were desperate for us to stay in to help buy some time while they milked it some more, (as there was no way out) and now we are out they are going to use Brexit as the patsy.
I'm not saying Brexit hasn't pushed things along, but a readjustment of the fictitious markets was going to happen regardless, and had already started, and the EU banks are in more trouble than most of the countries we consider f
ked.
I'm not saying Brexit hasn't pushed things along, but a readjustment of the fictitious markets was going to happen regardless, and had already started, and the EU banks are in more trouble than most of the countries we consider f
ked. Steffan said:
What cannot continue is fraud on this scale by the EU! Billions wasted weekly to support totally insolvent states in an economic union that does not have a common central fiscal administration and now never will have such an administration! In direct consequence the EU will fail because the EU cannot actually address any of the fundamental weaknesses within the fiscally independent Sovereign states within the EU!
How the EU thought this could work with such fundamentally different Sovereign States I simply do not understand? Possibly because the personal gravy train this offered, to those who supported the plutocrat lifestyles offered by the opportunities to benefit within such a poorly managed operation, were in fact the sole motivator!
My opinion is that the common currency was primarily introduced as a tool to "force" further integration. How the EU thought this could work with such fundamentally different Sovereign States I simply do not understand? Possibly because the personal gravy train this offered, to those who supported the plutocrat lifestyles offered by the opportunities to benefit within such a poorly managed operation, were in fact the sole motivator!
Edited by Steffan on Wednesday 6th July 23:33
So keen were the federalists to get the common currency in place that they turned a blind eye to it's fundamental deficiencies. Their assumption being that once it was up and running total political and fiscal union wouldn't be far behind at which time they could put things straight.
To admit that they were wrong at this stage doesn't seem to be an option they're prepared to take, they have too much political capital invested. Hence their continued and flawed financial support.
Pressure from reckless lenders undoubtedly also plays a part at this stage of the game.
Common currency monkey business has been going on for a long time. The Americans were giving advice on it many years ago as the last couple of sentences show.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/1...
Steffan said:
Just a brief note from me (I makes a change!) on the Italian banking crisis which seems to be getting serious steam up...
Don't forget the banking crisis in Portugal too Steffan! Novo Banco was the "good bank" pulled from the ashes of Banco Espirito Santo. The new "good bank" turned out to be the just same as the old "bad bank", I would think somebody who bought its bonds has a decent case uder the Portugese version of the Trades Description Act! A relatively minor irritant of course, but nonetheless, given the systemic issues it is one which needs monitoring. Meanwhile Portugal is in trouble with the European Commission over its fiscal deficit and whilst no sanctions have been declared so far, and depite the constant reassurances from the Troika that Portugal is "on track", there have been some consequences. It won't be getting much infrastructure investment from the EU either. From Publico:
"It’s the first casualty of the railway investment plan that the Government presented in February. The Aveiro-Mangualde line, amounting to 675.3 million euros and it would have a share of 404.8 million of EU funds, was sunk by Brussels because the cost-benefit analysis was negative."
Think of a famous three word sentence containing the word Sherlock! Bearing in mind the populations of Aviero and Mangualde are 78,000 and 19,000 respectively, this would be the same as spunking half a billion quid on a line between say Shrewsbury and Oswestry. These people are beyond barmy to even contemplate it.
Edited by Andy Zarse on Thursday 7th July 12:01
Digga said:
Andy Zarse said:
would be the same as spunking half a billion quid on a line between say Shrewsbury and Oswestry.
Even if they let the farmers take livestock on their they'd never fill it, even on market day. Would put a dent in Ifor William's local sales too.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff