Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
fblm said:
jsf said:
You've been saying the Euro is going to fail for 5 years now.
Until the people of Europe chose to break up the EU, I don't see the EURO going anywhere in terms of its survival.
I've long since argued the currency will survive. That doesn't mean it hasn't been a failure. That rather depends if you're a German industrialist or an unemployed Spaniard.Until the people of Europe chose to break up the EU, I don't see the EURO going anywhere in terms of its survival.
You have a company,part of that company is performing badly.
So you ask the bank to lend you money.
The bank asks for a business plan....you shrug your shoulders and say trust me....whilst softly humming "things can only get better".
The bank says why don't you close or offload the badly performing parts of your business.
You say ,no way Hosea.
Why not asks the Bank .....well the CEO says we've got another plan...
What's that ....asks the bank.
The CEO beams and says....I have a vision ....of an EU Company where everybody works as hard as our German colleagues,where the Greeks ,Spanish and Italians do not say manyana and close their business for half the day,where whole chunks of their industry are controlled by the Mafia..etc etc.
Now in real life the bank would surely not give the loan but in the EU world they have magic and it's called QE.
QE allows you to print fantasy money that will solve all your problems,except it won't unless you address those problems fairly sharpish.
Anyway that's as I see it.
Edited by avinalarf on Saturday 9th July 20:18
turbobloke said:
jsf said:
You've been saying the Euro is going to fail for 5 years now.
I know what you mean...but the euro has already failed millions of people in Greece et al.Brexit, if anything is going to prolong the life of the EURO, because there is now nothing to stop a federal Europe being created, where the debts will be shared via Europe wide fiscal control. The fact this means part of the EURO zone are toast doesn't come into it, the people in control don't care about them.
Steffan talks about the ECB not being able to keep up the QE, I don't agree, it can be kept going indefinitely, just look at the debt in all major countries and you see that its a never ending certainty.
The only way the EURO will die, is if the disaffected people of Europe force the collapse of the EU.
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 9th July 20:30
jsf said:
...the ECB not being able to keep up the QE, I don't agree, it can be kept going indefinitely, just look at the debt in all major countries and you see that its a never ending certainty.
The article with a link posted in one of the EU threads which set out the Ponzi nature of things said as much, that the limit is only a political one.jsf said:
The only way the EURO will die, is if the disaffected people of Europe force the collapse of the EU.
A political 'solution' of sorts!fblm said:
Good for the uk. Smart move. Insider who knows where the bodies are buried on the side of a bank that doesn't want to move.
Always know where the bodies are buried, keeps you in collie green linguini for years. Especially if the skeletons in your closet resemble a graveyard.stongle said:
fblm said:
Good for the uk. Smart move. Insider who knows where the bodies are buried on the side of a bank that doesn't want to move.
Always know where the bodies are buried, keeps you in collie green linguini for years. Especially if the skeletons in your closet resemble a graveyard.http://m.welt.de/finanzen/article156924408/Deutsch...
Apparently this German article says DBB have asked for €150bn
Apparently this German article says DBB have asked for €150bn
Puggit said:
http://m.welt.de/finanzen/article156924408/Deutsch... this German article says DBB have asked for €150bn
DB's Chief Economist says €150B is needed to bail out all European banks, particularly those in Italy.jsf said:
Absolutely. But we aren't talking about the people of Southern Europe and their prosperity, we are talking about the EURO currency and whether that currency is going to continue.
Brexit, if anything is going to prolong the life of the EURO, because there is now nothing to stop a federal Europe being created, where the debts will be shared via Europe wide fiscal control. The fact this means part of the EURO zone are toast doesn't come into it, the people in control don't care about them.
Steffan talks about the ECB not being able to keep up the QE, I don't agree, it can be kept going indefinitely, just look at the debt in all major countries and you see that its a never ending certainty.
The only way the EURO will die, is if the disaffected people of Europe force the collapse of the EU.
for me the the way it will die will be when the german people say enough is enough. that point is very close ,imo. while the germans may be pragmatic, they are not stupid. they may well be able to afford to bail out the entire eurozone,whether they will accept the hit to their own standard of living that will result i am not so sure.Brexit, if anything is going to prolong the life of the EURO, because there is now nothing to stop a federal Europe being created, where the debts will be shared via Europe wide fiscal control. The fact this means part of the EURO zone are toast doesn't come into it, the people in control don't care about them.
Steffan talks about the ECB not being able to keep up the QE, I don't agree, it can be kept going indefinitely, just look at the debt in all major countries and you see that its a never ending certainty.
The only way the EURO will die, is if the disaffected people of Europe force the collapse of the EU.
Edited by jsf on Saturday 9th July 20:30
-Pete- said:
Puggit said:
http://m.welt.de/finanzen/article156924408/Deutsch... this German article says DBB have asked for €150bn
DB's Chief Economist says €150B is needed to bail out all European banks, particularly those in Italy.Firstly I must thank avinalarf for his very kind words, yesterday. 
Moving onto the comments of a number of posters on here, this does make for a very interesting mixture of views and a wide ranging discussion of the future of the Euro, the EU and the UK itself.
Change is undoubtedly coming to all of Europe as the reality of the consequences following the Brexit decision, percolate through the consciousness of those effected. But what the long term changes will be, does, very much, remain to be seen?
Most comments I agree with, some I do not. But this really emphasises the virtue of a discussion forum like this to me! I always find it educational and very interesting to hear others expressing their own views on the consequences of change to our society.
I found the comments of jfs and Turbobloke particularly interesting and certainly challenging. It will require a change within the EU for the QE nonsense to be exposed for what it is, which is IMO outright dishonesty. I believe, as other's have suggested on here, in this discussion, that whilst Germany probably, could afford to carry the can, I cannot for a minute believe that the Germans, will be easy patsies. Canny lot, the Germans, and I just do not expect Germany to be prepared, in any way, to pick up the tab.
To my mind therefore, the odds against the EU being able to keep all the balls in the air, that they have been spinning and spinning to keep the EU apparently on course, have been steadily rising day by day, post Brexit. Often happens when dishonesty becomes the apparent saviour, in failing businesses. Starts small, and then grows and grows until the point is reached where disaster is imminent. .
It seems to me that an event like Brexit will cause more and more concern within the financial markets, particularly, as to to why, if life within the EU, is so stable and a bed of roses, for all the members, one of the major constituents, the United Kingdom, have decided to pull out? That will inevitably beg the question, "why has the UK voted to leave after 40 years of membership?" Good question that and not easily fobbed off..
The QE funny money fiddle has already been running for several years, in bailing out the wholly insolvent State of Greece, within the EU. Throughout that period the finances of Greece have worsened steadily. I understand that Christine Lagard and the IMF have now called an end to their lending to Greece? IMO wisely. That decision must be a hammer blow to the EU because all of the risk now falls back upon the EU itself.
Time will tell, as is so often the case, with complex matters. But I really do believe the the Brexit vote will change course of history for both the UK and the EU.
Moving onto the comments of a number of posters on here, this does make for a very interesting mixture of views and a wide ranging discussion of the future of the Euro, the EU and the UK itself. Change is undoubtedly coming to all of Europe as the reality of the consequences following the Brexit decision, percolate through the consciousness of those effected. But what the long term changes will be, does, very much, remain to be seen?
Most comments I agree with, some I do not. But this really emphasises the virtue of a discussion forum like this to me! I always find it educational and very interesting to hear others expressing their own views on the consequences of change to our society.
I found the comments of jfs and Turbobloke particularly interesting and certainly challenging. It will require a change within the EU for the QE nonsense to be exposed for what it is, which is IMO outright dishonesty. I believe, as other's have suggested on here, in this discussion, that whilst Germany probably, could afford to carry the can, I cannot for a minute believe that the Germans, will be easy patsies. Canny lot, the Germans, and I just do not expect Germany to be prepared, in any way, to pick up the tab.
To my mind therefore, the odds against the EU being able to keep all the balls in the air, that they have been spinning and spinning to keep the EU apparently on course, have been steadily rising day by day, post Brexit. Often happens when dishonesty becomes the apparent saviour, in failing businesses. Starts small, and then grows and grows until the point is reached where disaster is imminent. .
It seems to me that an event like Brexit will cause more and more concern within the financial markets, particularly, as to to why, if life within the EU, is so stable and a bed of roses, for all the members, one of the major constituents, the United Kingdom, have decided to pull out? That will inevitably beg the question, "why has the UK voted to leave after 40 years of membership?" Good question that and not easily fobbed off..
The QE funny money fiddle has already been running for several years, in bailing out the wholly insolvent State of Greece, within the EU. Throughout that period the finances of Greece have worsened steadily. I understand that Christine Lagard and the IMF have now called an end to their lending to Greece? IMO wisely. That decision must be a hammer blow to the EU because all of the risk now falls back upon the EU itself.
Time will tell, as is so often the case, with complex matters. But I really do believe the the Brexit vote will change course of history for both the UK and the EU.
kurt535 said:
If the Euro is such a screwed currency why has the £ fallen against it?
The pound has fallen against the Zimbabwean Dollar.Presumably that makes the ZWD hard currency.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=...
kurt535 said:
If the Euro is such a screwed currency why has the £ fallen against it?
Love to know if we have a cunning trading plan on PH and every one is secretly shorting it...
Let us not pretend that the EU wouldn't love to see the Euro fall in value, because they would. It makes the stragglers more competitive and helps Germany to run riot on exports. Love to know if we have a cunning trading plan on PH and every one is secretly shorting it...
The have already debauched the currency via low (and negative) interest rates, and via 1 Trillion of QE.
That the pound has fallen, give the UK a competitive edge in some respects, admittedly it does also raise import cost, but these can be offset via greater exports.
Perspective is important, when we left the ERM, everyone thought the end of the world was nigh, then the UK went on an 8 year growth spree....
turbobloke said:
kurt535 said:
If the Euro is such a screwed currency why has the £ fallen against it?
The pound has fallen against the Zimbabwean Dollar.Presumably that makes the ZWD hard currency.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=...
ETA; irony alert, they are actually worth something again!
Edited by hidetheelephants on Sunday 10th July 20:16
hidetheelephants said:
turbobloke said:
kurt535 said:
If the Euro is such a screwed currency why has the £ fallen against it?
The pound has fallen against the Zimbabwean Dollar.Presumably that makes the ZWD hard currency.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=...
ETA; irony alert, they are actually worth something again!
540 ZWD moved to 470 ZWD. PS how many mattresses did it require?!
Edited by turbobloke on Sunday 10th July 20:38
turbobloke said:
hidetheelephants said:
turbobloke said:
kurt535 said:
If the Euro is such a screwed currency why has the £ fallen against it?
The pound has fallen against the Zimbabwean Dollar.Presumably that makes the ZWD hard currency.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=...
ETA; irony alert, they are actually worth something again!
540 ZWD moved to 470 ZWD. PS how many mattresses did it require?!
Gargamel said:
turbobloke said:
hidetheelephants said:
turbobloke said:
kurt535 said:
If the Euro is such a screwed currency why has the £ fallen against it?
The pound has fallen against the Zimbabwean Dollar.Presumably that makes the ZWD hard currency.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=...
ETA; irony alert, they are actually worth something again!
540 ZWD moved to 470 ZWD. PS how many mattresses did it require?!
And not enough hands to keep on your ha'penny.
Interesting article on the political implications of Brexit.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/st...
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/st...
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