Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
It has occurred to me that the sound bite "Brexit means Brexit" means nothing.
Nothing at all.
If no one has a clear and agreed definition of what the word means it means nothing and can be used to mean anything that people end up wanting it to mean.
Perhaps this was why Cameron wanted the referendum process to take mere weeks rather than the recommended 18 months or so.
Nothing at all.
If no one has a clear and agreed definition of what the word means it means nothing and can be used to mean anything that people end up wanting it to mean.
Perhaps this was why Cameron wanted the referendum process to take mere weeks rather than the recommended 18 months or so.
LongQ said:
It has occurred to me that the sound bite "Brexit means Brexit" means nothing.
Nothing at all.
If no one has a clear and agreed definition of what the word means it means nothing and can be used to mean anything that people end up wanting it to mean.
Perhaps this was why Cameron wanted the referendum process to take mere weeks rather than the recommended 18 months or so.
Cameron thought he could persuade people to vote Remain by scaring the pants off them/us then reunite the Party around a decision to embrace 'europe' i.e. the EU with time to ride out any remaining militant euroscepticism before the 2020 election, but he miscalculated badly.Nothing at all.
If no one has a clear and agreed definition of what the word means it means nothing and can be used to mean anything that people end up wanting it to mean.
Perhaps this was why Cameron wanted the referendum process to take mere weeks rather than the recommended 18 months or so.
There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
turbobloke said:
Cameron thought he could persuade people to vote Remain by scaring the pants off them/us then reunite the Party around a decision to embrace 'europe' i.e. the EU with time to ride out any remaining militant euroscepticism before the 2020 election, but he miscalculated badly.
There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
One would like to think so ..... but over time it could be a phrase "re-interpreted" to mean anything.There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
And it probably will have that fate.
LongQ said:
turbobloke said:
Cameron thought he could persuade people to vote Remain by scaring the pants off them/us then reunite the Party around a decision to embrace 'europe' i.e. the EU with time to ride out any remaining militant euroscepticism before the 2020 election, but he miscalculated badly.
There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
One would like to think so ..... but over time it could be a phrase "re-interpreted" to mean anything.There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
And it probably will have that fate.
That said, if it turns out to mean something else because, in spite of any amount of spin there's a u-turn in sight (referendum or leaving the EU), then May will go the same way as Cameron.
That would be bad for the country but, sadly more importantly for the government, bad for the Conservatives. May knows this, her MPs know this. Which is why I still consider there to be only a very, very slim chance that the Brexit term in 'Brexit means Brexit' will need to be reinterpreted, even though it could be.
turbobloke said:
Anything is possible in politics...
That said, if it turns out to mean something else because, in spite of any amount of spin there's a u-turn in sight (referendum or leaving the EU), then May will go the same way as Cameron.
That would be bad for the country but, sadly more importantly for the government, bad for the Conservatives. May knows this, her MPs know this. Which is why I still consider there to be only a very, very slim chance that the Brexit term in 'Brexit means Brexit' will need to be reinterpreted, even though it could be.
And for what it's worth, this is my view too. Whilst they can change direction I have heard numerous people (politicians and reporters) say that it would be political suicide to do so. That said, if it turns out to mean something else because, in spite of any amount of spin there's a u-turn in sight (referendum or leaving the EU), then May will go the same way as Cameron.
That would be bad for the country but, sadly more importantly for the government, bad for the Conservatives. May knows this, her MPs know this. Which is why I still consider there to be only a very, very slim chance that the Brexit term in 'Brexit means Brexit' will need to be reinterpreted, even though it could be.
Plus her early actions appear to support the view that she is going for Brexit and doesn't intend (at this time, but events can change that) to go back on the referendum.
IY
Plus her early actions appear to support the view that she is going for Brexit and doesn't intend (at this time, but events can change that) to go back on the referendum.I am bound to say that I agree with both Turbobloke and Steveatesh that there Is a high probability that Thelresa May does actually mean what she said in her first Downing Street statement on becoming Prime Minister about Brexit being a real priority.
The appointment of Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary and David Davis as Brexit minister does seem to me to underline the seriousness that May places upon not only, being seen to be active and directing policy, but also ensuring there are Brexiteers at the very heart of this process. I do understand the concern that the politicians will revert to type and begin looking after themselves first and foremost and not the country.
However David Davis has been out of the ministerial appointments schedules for two decades and bringing him in to work on the details with Boris attempting to smooth the pathway, seems to me to be a damned good show? I do not think we can ask for more?
There will be difficulties and there may still be backsliding as the Remain camp seek to be nuisances. But in fairness to May this does seem to me to be a pretty fair effort, to ensure progress in the pathway out of the EU for the UK.
Long, long way to go and literally years of negotiating for the UK I think? I really do wonder whether, in act, the obvious difficulties of Greece, France and Italy may yet, overtake and weaken the EU to the point where major revisions are forced upon the EU before the UK has actually Brexited? Now that could be a real challenge. I do believe that Draghi will fail to manage the difficulties economc stagnation within the EU states will cause? I remain convinced that the QE abuse cannot solve the fundmental economc difficulties within the EU. Failure is inevitable IMO. Something may be rescued in terms of a new grouping but the current nonsense will not last.
Interesting times which remind me of the old Bob Dylan number,
'The Times, They Are A' Changing!'
steveatesh said:
turbobloke said:
Anything is possible in politics...
That said, if it turns out to mean something else because, in spite of any amount of spin there's a u-turn in sight (referendum or leaving the EU), then May will go the same way as Cameron.
That would be bad for the country but, sadly more importantly for the government, bad for the Conservatives. May knows this, her MPs know this. Which is why I still consider there to be only a very, very slim chance that the Brexit term in 'Brexit means Brexit' will need to be reinterpreted, even though it could be.
And for what it's worth, this is my view too. Whilst they can change direction I have heard numerous people (politicians and reporters) say that it would be political suicide to do so. That said, if it turns out to mean something else because, in spite of any amount of spin there's a u-turn in sight (referendum or leaving the EU), then May will go the same way as Cameron.
That would be bad for the country but, sadly more importantly for the government, bad for the Conservatives. May knows this, her MPs know this. Which is why I still consider there to be only a very, very slim chance that the Brexit term in 'Brexit means Brexit' will need to be reinterpreted, even though it could be.
Plus her early actions appear to support the view that she is going for Brexit and doesn't intend (at this time, but events can change that) to go back on the referendum.
The appointment of Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary and David Davis as Brexit minister does seem to me to underline the seriousness that May places upon not only, being seen to be active and directing policy, but also ensuring there are Brexiteers at the very heart of this process. I do understand the concern that the politicians will revert to type and begin looking after themselves first and foremost and not the country.
However David Davis has been out of the ministerial appointments schedules for two decades and bringing him in to work on the details with Boris attempting to smooth the pathway, seems to me to be a damned good show? I do not think we can ask for more?
There will be difficulties and there may still be backsliding as the Remain camp seek to be nuisances. But in fairness to May this does seem to me to be a pretty fair effort, to ensure progress in the pathway out of the EU for the UK.
Long, long way to go and literally years of negotiating for the UK I think? I really do wonder whether, in act, the obvious difficulties of Greece, France and Italy may yet, overtake and weaken the EU to the point where major revisions are forced upon the EU before the UK has actually Brexited? Now that could be a real challenge. I do believe that Draghi will fail to manage the difficulties economc stagnation within the EU states will cause? I remain convinced that the QE abuse cannot solve the fundmental economc difficulties within the EU. Failure is inevitable IMO. Something may be rescued in terms of a new grouping but the current nonsense will not last.
Interesting times which remind me of the old Bob Dylan number,
'The Times, They Are A' Changing!'
Edited by Steffan on Thursday 14th July 21:02
LongQ said:
turbobloke said:
Cameron thought he could persuade people to vote Remain by scaring the pants off them/us then reunite the Party around a decision to embrace 'europe' i.e. the EU with time to ride out any remaining militant euroscepticism before the 2020 election, but he miscalculated badly.
There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
One would like to think so ..... but over time it could be a phrase "re-interpreted" to mean anything.There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
And it probably will have that fate.
) but in this instance i strongly disagree. the entire establishment is completely and utterly shell shocked at the referendum result .every single thing they had any form of control over was used to to try and achieve a remain vote and they failed.they now know that the populace in general is unhappy with their performance and they need to start listening to the concerns of the wider population, whether they like what they hear or not. i actually think the annihilation of the lib dems at the last election was the first sign of this. by their very nature their supporters tend to be the placid sort,but they had enough of lying self serving politicians_and showed just what can happen when politicians overstep the mark and place getting a whiff of power over stated pledges.
wc98 said:
LongQ said:
turbobloke said:
Cameron thought he could persuade people to vote Remain by scaring the pants off them/us then reunite the Party around a decision to embrace 'europe' i.e. the EU with time to ride out any remaining militant euroscepticism before the 2020 election, but he miscalculated badly.
There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
One would like to think so ..... but over time it could be a phrase "re-interpreted" to mean anything.There's also the very likely possibility that he was warned of some EU wobbly ahead and was aiming to get the vote in before news broke. Greece? Italy?
Agreed that there is no single interpretation, but Brexit means Brexit is, I suspect, not in any way related to some form of detail about what the term means, it's simply a re-affirmation that we aren't looking at a neverendum situation or a stark u-turn by the gov't.
And it probably will have that fate.
) but in this instance i strongly disagree. the entire establishment is completely and utterly shell shocked at the referendum result .every single thing they had any form of control over was used to to try and achieve a remain vote and they failed.they now know that the populace in general is unhappy with their performance and they need to start listening to the concerns of the wider population, whether they like what they hear or not. i actually think the annihilation of the lib dems at the last election was the first sign of this. by their very nature their supporters tend to be the placid sort,but they had enough of lying self serving politicians_and showed just what can happen when politicians overstep the mark and place getting a whiff of power over stated pledges.
On this subject I hope you are right and I think you are correct that May intends changes from a political perspective for pragmatic reasons related too UK politics.
However, as things stand, any Brexit deal is two way with "Europe" - where, as I understand things, the currently 27 countries all have to agree individually to some aspects of the untested process of Exit as it is presently understood.
Obtaining such agreement, along with everything else, in an acceptable time scale may be a challenge. Or more likely WILL be a challenge.
Compromises may be necessary on some points.
Additionally Brussels/EU may discover they have some serious problems to consider that lead them to want UK to remain as part of something more akin to EU than an EEA/EFTA/W.H.Y associate. If so such an offer might just seem attractive a couple of years down the tortuous path of negotiations.
And there might develop quite a strong feeling amongst the "population" that they would like another try at indicating their preference. Would any "listening" politician be able to resist such a movement and retain credibility? (Lose:lose either way in that case ....).
Bear in mind that also that, as usual, the "majority" was something like 52% of a 72% (from memory - accurate enough for the point to be made) so that's not much more than a third of those potentially eligible to vote.
There is potential for a LOT of pressure and influence to be brought to bear on the subject. A "fluid" interpretation of the word we know as "Brexit" might come in very handy at some future point. It would then be something "in the spirit" of going into the unknown with the divorce process.
Steffan said:
Long, long way to go and literally years of negotiating for the UK I think? I really do wonder whether, in act, the obvious difficulties of Greece, France and Italy may yet, overtake and weaken the EU to the point where major revisions are forced upon the EU before the UK has actually Brexited?
^This......and this:
LongQ said:
Additionally Brussels/EU may discover they have some serious problems to consider that lead them to want UK to remain as part of something more akin to EU than an EEA/EFTA/W.H.Y associate. If so such an offer might just seem attractive a couple of years down the tortuous path of negotiations.
My opinion is that Brexit, combined with the Italian banking difficulties has set wheels in motion. I feel there is a very good chance that events may overtake the current dogma of the EU and it may be forced into a new, more pragmatic era.Digga said:
Steffan said:
Long, long way to go and literally years of negotiating for the UK I think? I really do wonder whether, in act, the obvious difficulties of Greece, France and Italy may yet, overtake and weaken the EU to the point where major revisions are forced upon the EU before the UK has actually Brexited?
^This......and this:
LongQ said:
Additionally Brussels/EU may discover they have some serious problems to consider that lead them to want UK to remain as part of something more akin to EU than an EEA/EFTA/W.H.Y associate. If so such an offer might just seem attractive a couple of years down the tortuous path of negotiations.
My opinion is that Brexit, combined with the Italian banking difficulties has set wheels in motion. I feel there is a very good chance that events may overtake the current dogma of the EU and it may be forced into a new, more pragmatic era.This was one of the reasons I wanted out, If I don't like the EU President, how can I get rid of him ?
If there was a clear out, or at least the Council of Ministers had a plan B it would be a start
fblm said:
Digga said:
ad you not heard? He'll be out on his (drunked) arse pretty soon.
It's hard to imagine the likes of Merkel and Hollande do not find him at least partially responsible for losing the UK. Digga said:
Too right. Here is but one story I've seen: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/03/angela-...
Fantastic comedy in that article Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, said that he was working out ways to make Paris – as opposed to Dublin or Frankfurt – the most attractive place for relocating businesses. “To major international companies I say, 'Welcome to Paris! Come invest in France’,” he said.
Hmm, lets think of ten reasons not to invest in France.
Oh wait I only need one.
Ever tried to fire someone for under achievement in France ?
Good to see the discussions on here and it does seem very probable that the likes of Angela Merkel et al will only put up with idiots like that putting their pet pipe dream at risk, for so long and then drop the incompetents one by one.
Moving onto a sombre note,, the latest dreadful terrorist atrocity in Nice, France where upwards of 85 people are already known to be dead, has been absolutely dreadful to witness. How much worse must it be to actually be experiencing the horrendous mayhem and appalling loss of life and limbs in this way?
Our thoughts must surely be with France, yet again, all te victms and the terrified survivors and all the relatives. Utterly appalling waste of the lives of all those entirely innocent, everyday people going around peacefully, living their lives. Dreadful day for France!
I really have no answer as to be what can be done to limit and hopefully prevent the continuance of such atrocities. Mainland European borders have always been open and this has been extended by the EU. Currently it would seem, the authorities are unable to anticipate where and when and largely even who the attackers are actually spreading across Europe. I wish all those efforts well indeed, but I do not think that, as yet, any real answer has been found?.
Our thoughts must be with the hundreds of wounded, damaged and dead victims and their families.
Wicked terrorist acts are despicable.
Never ever justified!
Moving onto a sombre note,, the latest dreadful terrorist atrocity in Nice, France where upwards of 85 people are already known to be dead, has been absolutely dreadful to witness. How much worse must it be to actually be experiencing the horrendous mayhem and appalling loss of life and limbs in this way?
Our thoughts must surely be with France, yet again, all te victms and the terrified survivors and all the relatives. Utterly appalling waste of the lives of all those entirely innocent, everyday people going around peacefully, living their lives. Dreadful day for France!
I really have no answer as to be what can be done to limit and hopefully prevent the continuance of such atrocities. Mainland European borders have always been open and this has been extended by the EU. Currently it would seem, the authorities are unable to anticipate where and when and largely even who the attackers are actually spreading across Europe. I wish all those efforts well indeed, but I do not think that, as yet, any real answer has been found?.
Our thoughts must be with the hundreds of wounded, damaged and dead victims and their families.
Wicked terrorist acts are despicable.
Never ever justified!
fblm said:
Gargamel said:
Hmm, lets think of ten reasons not to invest in France.
Oh wait I only need one...
Did you see Jerome Kerviel, the trader who lost SocGen $3bn, just got over $500k payout for unfair dismissal!!! Oh wait I only need one...
Over the years, their French operation has been responsible for some enormous f
k ups too. Principally a hug, forced inventory write down.Steffan said:
Good to see the discussions on here and it does seem very probable that the likes of Angela Merkel et al will only put up with idiots like that putting their pet pipe dream at risk, for so long and then drop the incompetents one by one.
Moving onto a sombre note,, the latest dreadful terrorist atrocity in Nice, France where upwards of 85 people are already known to be dead, has been absolutely dreadful to witness. How much worse must it be to actually be experiencing the horrendous mayhem and appalling loss of life and limbs in this way?
Our thoughts must surely be with France, yet again, all te victms and the terrified survivors and all the relatives. Utterly appalling waste of the lives of all those entirely innocent, everyday people going around peacefully, living their lives. Dreadful day for France!
I really have no answer as to be what can be done to limit and hopefully prevent the continuance of such atrocities. Mainland European borders have always been open and this has been extended by the EU. Currently it would seem, the authorities are unable to anticipate where and when and largely even who the attackers are actually spreading across Europe. I wish all those efforts well indeed, but I do not think that, as yet, any real answer has been found?.
Our thoughts must be with the hundreds of wounded, damaged and dead victims and their families.
Wicked terrorist acts are despicable.
Never ever justified!
I completely agree with your sentiments Steffan. A truly dreadful and social confidence destroying event and especially destabilising as further extension of a series of such events.Moving onto a sombre note,, the latest dreadful terrorist atrocity in Nice, France where upwards of 85 people are already known to be dead, has been absolutely dreadful to witness. How much worse must it be to actually be experiencing the horrendous mayhem and appalling loss of life and limbs in this way?
Our thoughts must surely be with France, yet again, all te victms and the terrified survivors and all the relatives. Utterly appalling waste of the lives of all those entirely innocent, everyday people going around peacefully, living their lives. Dreadful day for France!
I really have no answer as to be what can be done to limit and hopefully prevent the continuance of such atrocities. Mainland European borders have always been open and this has been extended by the EU. Currently it would seem, the authorities are unable to anticipate where and when and largely even who the attackers are actually spreading across Europe. I wish all those efforts well indeed, but I do not think that, as yet, any real answer has been found?.
Our thoughts must be with the hundreds of wounded, damaged and dead victims and their families.
Wicked terrorist acts are despicable.
Never ever justified!
If we look at the UK it can be hard to understand how and why we end up with people living here who appear to hate everything about the place, especially those who are born and bred on this island. But it clearly can and does happen so we need to plan for and expect destructive acts while working out a way to dismantle the problems that lead to them.
In France they seem to have a more endemic problem and have had it for longer and with more frequent outbreaks of obvious discontent, especially in recent decades.
The friction of past empire that may be the source of the problem ended more recently then the UK's similar influence. Perhaps there is still a full generation who remember the bad times (as they understand them.)
The EU empire seems to be attracting a lot of people but with no greater obvious success for integration. One wonders how things may develop over the next decade or so.
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