Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Art0ir]

Welshbeef said:

Art0ir said:

Germany is a precarious position. They are essentially backrolling the Med to keep their exports alive with a weak Euro.

Can you imagine how much a Deutschmark would be worth compared to the Euro? 2:1? 3:1?

They've also been pretty stupidly stubborn when it comes to infrastructure. Spending on it has been slashed, even at a point when people will pay them to borrow! They can invest in whatever they like and make money on the loan.

Debt is still debt and needs to be repaid. It's cumulative borrowing which mean generation of our children have to pay for our over excess (labour seem more than happy and think that is "fair" maybe a new kind of politics but it's ripping off your kids so you can have a sweeter setup.

Of course, but this odd mantra that "any debt = bad" is just nonsense. Germany has parts of its infrastructure crumbling that have largely been ignored in recent years. There is borrowing for sensible things like bridge building and borrowing for the kind of things you talk about.

The US has a similar problem. I think I read there are over 100 bridges in NY alone that are rated at "critical" in terms of structural stability.

[Digga]

Art0ir said:

Of course, but this odd mantra that "any debt = bad" is just nonsense. Germany has parts of its infrastructure crumbling that have largely been ignored in recent years. There is borrowing for sensible things like bridge building and borrowing for the kind of things you talk about.

The US has a similar problem. I think I read there are over 100 bridges in NY alone that are rated at "critical" in terms of structural stability.

We are no better in the UK.

There has been huge confusion over expenditure versus investment. The debate was also allowed to be hijacked by eco-loonies for a while. The truth of the matter is, that capital spending, done right, lasts for years and brings benefits in efficiency. The same is true for nations as it is also for businesses. Right now, viewing the UK as a workplace, we're trying to go about our duties (and earning to pay taxes) with our shoelaces knotted together. Road and rail infrastructure need urgent upgrade.

[Welshbeef]

Digga said:

We are no better in the UK.

There has been huge confusion over expenditure versus investment. The debate was also allowed to be hijacked by eco-loonies for a while. The truth of the matter is, that capital spending, done right, lasts for years and brings benefits in efficiency. The same is true for nations as it is also for businesses. Right now, viewing the UK as a workplace, we're trying to go about our duties (and earning to pay taxes) with our shoelaces knotted together. Road and rail infrastructure need urgent upgrade.

But all we've done is spend on operational expenditure not Capital expenditure in the main.
Millennium some and Olympic stadiums aside.

[Mr Whippy]

Art0ir said:

They've also been pretty stupidly stubborn when it comes to infrastructure. Spending on it has been slashed, even at a point when people will pay them to borrow! They can invest in whatever they like and make money on the loan.

That sounds bonkers.

Until you consider the demographics of the Western World are now quite dire.

We can't invest in infrastructure because the population left to support the payments is shrinking, while the social cost burden is rising.

Given how terribly bloated governments have become (heavily socialised/regulated), it's impossible to crank back to a lower cost system.

We're all screwed. It's going to be a messy unwind.

This is why we're importing people (immigration), it's the only way to keep GDP up and tax take up to sustain our mammoth expenditures.


But we can only do that so much when our infrastructure isn't getting an upgrade, and there are only so many homes etc.


It's gonna get very messy before it gets better.

[Steffan]

Mr Whippy said:

Art0ir said:

They've also been pretty stupidly stubborn when it comes to infrastructure. Spending on it has been slashed, even at a point when people will pay them to borrow! They can invest in whatever they like and make money on the loan.

That sounds bonkers.

Until you consider the demographics of the Western World are now quite dire.

We can't invest in infrastructure because the population left to support the payments is shrinking, while the social cost burden is rising.

Given how terribly bloated governments have become (heavily socialised/regulated), it's impossible to crank back to a lower cost system.

We're all screwed. It's going to be a messy unwind.

This is why we're importing people (immigration), it's the only way to keep GDP up and tax take up to sustain our mammoth expenditures.


But we can only do that so much when our infrastructure isn't getting an upgrade, and there are only so many homes etc.


It's gonna get very messy before it gets better.

Well as the post from M Whippy, above and the many comments from Welsbeef, Digga, Art Dir and many others on here, it is becoming increasingly apparent, that the whole Brexit question is becoming a real Conundrum for both the EU and the UK? Ths really is beginning to beg the question, IMO, as to whether the EU can actually cope with the withdrawl of the UK from the Common Market?

Given all the accurate postings above on this thread, from many contributors,, concerning the absolute and continuing dishonesty that permeates the EU and the extent of the visible approaching huge deficits, that are steadily building up within many of the EU Sovereign States, including, but not limited to the extent of the failing banks within Italy, Greece, France, Portugal, Spain et al, it can surely, be only be a matter of time before the financial balloon blows up in Europe?

On the theme of the conseqent, conundrum, that we all face in determining how to protect ourselves, by trying to estimate which will come first, Brexit or quite possibly, such major changes in the structure of the EU, that Britain is still well within the actal process of exiting the EU and therefore before we can actually get out? I am eginning to think that this is now almost an inevitability.

On that subject I found these BBC takes interesting.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37190357

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...

One thing is certain IMO. There are far too many failing economies locked within the EU, that QE fruadulent support by the EU will not enable all this to continue year upon year. Bailing out Greece is a minor problem which has been managed fraudulently by the EU. However, bailing out Italy, France, Spain, Portugal et al involves subsidising economies with combined populations approaching 200 Million people is totally unachievable.

The EU will not achieve it. What then, I do wonder!?

I would be very interested to hear what others think of this conundrum IMO the EU Goose is being and truly cooked!

[AstonZagato]

I was shocked by "Greece with Simon Reeves" on BBC2 just now (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p03gk743/greece-with-simon-reeve-episode-1).

People living in shanty towns, people scavenging on rubbish tips. In Europe. And gun-toting monks who think that Germany are completing the work of Hitler in conquering Greece.

[Funkycoldribena]

AstonZagato said:

I was shocked by "Greece with Simon Reeves" on BBC2 just now (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p03gk743/greece-with-simon-reeve-episode-1).

People living in shanty towns, people scavenging on rubbish tips. In Europe. And gun-toting monks who think that Germany are completing the work of Hitler in conquering Greece.

Program was first aired in February,everything's rosy now.

[LongQ]

This might get interesting.

Eire joining Apple to appeal the EU back-tax decision.

Eexit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37251084

[davepoth]

LongQ said:

This might get interesting.

Eire joining Apple to appeal the EU back-tax decision.

Eexit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37251084

If the EU really get Irish backs up then I guess it's a possibility. I was in Ireland a last week and my taxi driver thought their future was more with the UK (wherever we end up) than with the EU.

If the Irish did decide to jump then there would be a bit of a rush for the exit for smaller EU countries I think, especially if we started making moves towards a european free trade area that isn't the European Free Trade Area, for want of a better way of putting it.

[Steffan]

davepoth said:

LongQ said:

This might get interesting.

Eire joining Apple to appeal the EU back-tax decision.

Eexit?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37251084

If the EU really get Irish backs up then I guess it's a possibility. I was in Ireland a last week and my taxi driver thought their future was more with the UK (wherever we end up) than with the EU.

If the Irish did decide to jump then there would be a bit of a rush for the exit for smaller EU countries I think, especially if we started making moves towards a european free trade area that isn't the European Free Trade Area, for want of a better way of putting it.

Without any question, once again the Law of intended consequences is about to bite the EU right where it hurts! From the moment I saw this latest nonsense within the governance of the EU, whereby the EU has decided without any change in their powers, that they can and will negate the Irish Governments efforts to raise their economy by entering into a seres of very complex and lucrative Taxation agreements over decades, with a number of international Companies and which directly conflicts with the Sovereignty of Ireland, itself, and could well be ruinous to the Irish economy.

The Irish have no choice but to appeal the decision. The Irish economy could not stand the huge financial consequences to Apple pulling out. Perhaps even more importantly this nonsense directly conflicts with the Irish government right of having individual Sovereignty and control of laxation, within Relad, and the absolute right to levy the taxes within Ireland, that the Irish government wishes to levy. The EU has over reached itself once again and directly interfered within the taxation structure of the Irish economy itself. Not lawful.

If this decision is allowed to stand then every other Sovereign state within Europe could, without any electoral vote or additional agreements, find itself beholden to the EU for huge additional sums, without any means of addressing the unfairness of that decision. You do have to ask the question of who will be next onto the EU tumbrels?

Once again I must reiterate the steady and continuos problems that are continuing to arise and face the EU because of the total failure of the EU to actually address any of the myriad of financial problems that they are facing. Continuing with the policy of fraudulently abusing the EU taxayers by printing QE money and bailing out the various EU member states with are visibly already insolvent and diving towards disaster, may have just about worked, until now, but this cannot possibly resolve all the difficulties of so many steadily failing, Sovereign states.

A couple of articles from the BBC demonstrate the latest difficulties.

One way of another I do think the EU is in real trouble.

See:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37190357

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...

It does seem to me that whether the UK can actually get to Brextit, before the EU begins to vsibly fail, is a very moot point, I believe. It really is not looking good for the EU at all. T

Tmes are changing, I think!

[037]

Great post!
Vote Steffan for Economics Minister.

[Ridgemont]

all well and good but what's the breaking point? I don't believe that Irexit is likely if only because of the Irish knowing that the alternative to the EU is domination by the Brits. There is no way they that they will accept a return to the pund and being a backwater. Likewise I struggle to see which country will be the first to break; maybe France but I suspect that the establishment will rally around a 'anybody but le pen' candidate. Certainly not the Italians as they are hoping the Germans will bail them out. Possibly the Dutch? Not sure what the state of play there is?

[davepoth]

Funny that the EU commission didn't go after Amazon or eBay, both of which are domiciled in Luxembourg for tax purposes. Although given that Mr. Juncker is from the Duchy and as PM probably set up all the sweetheart deals there, I guess it's not all that surprising at all.

The Commission has set out its stall with this ruling. It doesn't like the way that Ireland is managing its tax affairs and will do its damnedest to stop it, and it looks like it can. The other big corporations in Ireland will all be looking at this ruling and considering their positions I imagine. Certainly, any multinational that was considering moving from London to Dublin will have some serious second thoughts.

[DrDeAtH]

Eexit, well it would certainly clear up some land border issues...

[Digga]

davepoth said:

Funny that the EU commission didn't go after Amazon or eBay, both of which are domiciled in Luxembourg for tax purposes. Although given that Mr. Juncker is from the Duchy and as PM probably set up all the sweetheart deals there, I guess it's not all that surprising at all.

The Commission has set out its stall with this ruling. It doesn't like the way that Ireland is managing its tax affairs and will do its damnedest to stop it, and it looks like it can. The other big corporations in Ireland will all be looking at this ruling and considering their positions I imagine. Certainly, any multinational that was considering moving from London to Dublin will have some serious second thoughts.

Yep, there are definitely many things rotten in the state of Luxembourg.

[avinalarf]

Interesting article on the Euro by Joseph Stiglitz in the Guardian.
Basically says it's a cluster feck .
Perhaps someone will post a link,sadly I can't do it.

[number 46]

Perhaps this is the first real attempt by the EU at a money grab directly ignoring a nations sovereignty? After the test program in Cyprus they are now looking at richer nations? After all they certainly need the money!! The U.K. leaving couldn't have been better timed!!!!

[slow_poke]

Steffan said:

Without any question, once again the Law of intended consequences is about to bite the EU right where it hurts! From the moment I saw this latest nonsense within the governance of the EU, whereby the EU has decided without any change in their powers, that they can and will negate the Irish Governments efforts to raise their economy by entering into a seres of very complex and lucrative Taxation agreements over decades, with a number of international Companies and which directly conflicts with the Sovereignty of Ireland, itself, and could well be ruinous to the Irish economy.

The Irish have no choice but to appeal the decision. The Irish economy could not stand the huge financial consequences to Apple pulling out. Perhaps even more importantly this nonsense directly conflicts with the Irish government right of having individual Sovereignty and control of laxation, within Relad, and the absolute right to levy the taxes within Ireland, that the Irish government wishes to levy. The EU has over reached itself once again and directly interfered within the taxation structure of the Irish economy itself. Not lawful.

If this decision is allowed to stand then every other Sovereign state within Europe could, without any electoral vote or additional agreements, find itself beholden to the EU for huge additional sums, without any means of addressing the unfairness of that decision. You do have to ask the question of who will be next onto the EU tumbrels?

Once again I must reiterate the steady and continuos problems that are continuing to arise and face the EU because of the total failure of the EU to actually address any of the myriad of financial problems that they are facing. Continuing with the policy of fraudulently abusing the EU taxayers by printing QE money and bailing out the various EU member states with are visibly already insolvent and diving towards disaster, may have just about worked, until now, but this cannot possibly resolve all the difficulties of so many steadily failing, Sovereign states.

A couple of articles from the BBC demonstrate the latest difficulties.

One way of another I do think the EU is in real trouble.

See:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37190357

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendu...

It does seem to me that whether the UK can actually get to Brextit, before the EU begins to vsibly fail, is a very moot point, I believe. It really is not looking good for the EU at all. T

Tmes are changing, I think!

It's not as clear cut as you make out. The rules of the game are changing and this is only the first indication of that.

Apple took the piss. They're being called out on it.

[Borghetto]

slow_poke said:

Apple took the piss. They're being called out on it.

That may be so, but Apple were within Irish law and Ireland as a sovereign nation had the right to make those laws. The biggest whinger over Ireland's low-tax regime has been France, who feel all those tech jobs should be in their country. But given their crazy tax and social security charges, they can whistle Dixie to those tech firms relocating those jobs to France's grasping embraces.

[basherX]

Borghetto said:

That may be so, but Apple were within Irish law and Ireland as a sovereign nation had the right to make those laws. The biggest whinger over Ireland's low-tax regime has been France, who feel all those tech jobs should be in their country. But given their crazy tax and social security charges, they can whistle Dixie to those tech firms relocating those jobs to France's grasping embraces.

You'd have to be off your head to base a business in France these days