Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
jshell said:
Is there a good answer to this?
I have literally no idea Though I do love a zerohedge article, Steffan are they paying you a retainer ?
"And on top of it all NOTHING has been fixed financially at all. There is more debt more leverage, more and more liquidity achieving less and less, interest rates are negative, pensions are going nowhere, insurers are grasping for risk even as they fear what it will do to them when the next crisis hits and governments are all, every one of them, preparing their armed forces for widespread civil unrest."
Gargamel said:
jshell said:
Is there a good answer to this?
I have literally no idea Though I do love a zerohedge article, Steffan are they paying you a retainer ?
"And on top of it all NOTHING has been fixed financially at all. There is more debt more leverage, more and more liquidity achieving less and less, interest rates are negative, pensions are going nowhere, insurers are grasping for risk even as they fear what it will do to them when the next crisis hits and governments are all, every one of them, preparing their armed forces for widespread civil unrest."
Regardless of scaremongering and rhetoric, the financial system is not healthy though and 'people' have little in reserve to get them through tough times - just witness the Aberdeen oil related crash unfolding even now.
Digga said:
arguti said:
i think the general rule is that if you buy (gold) coins that are UK legal tender there is no VAT but if you buy any other form of gold, silver, etc there is.
Not correct, you can buy pretty much any sort of gold investment (fund), bullion etc. without incurring VAT or taxes on gains.Any profit from the sale of U.K. Legal Tender bulion coins, Britannias, Sovereigns and I think Guineas (but not 100% sure on Guineas) do not count towards you CGT liability.
MikeT66 said:
Steffan said:
Well now as Gargamel, Art Dir, wc98 and Digga, have identified on here there is deeply serious trouble at t'mill of Deutsche Bank and the consequences could be absolutely critical to the continuance of the EU in its current form? Merkel is indicating no bail out and the shares are tumbling down. What was once the doyen of German Banking looks ever more at peril. Is not looking good, is it??
There has been deeply serious structural mismanagement at the epicentre of one of the biggest economic blocs in the world (And it continues) and the consequences could not be more serious for every European! This is never going to be admitted by the EU, but the reality is that confidence in the structures of the EU in its current form are steadily slipping away.
I was fortunate enough to spend time some recently, with a real expert on this nonsense and his view was that the whole edifice is looking ever less and less supportable, as the madness of the huge largesse that has steadily spread throughout the EU has gradually becomes more and more apparent.
His view was that the systems created within the EU from the start, to ensure that comfortable gravy train running all over the EU, which were designed to keep all the apparatchiks, Bureaucrats and EU politicians in clover, without any unpleasant audits etc, et, are reaching the point, where the unaffordability of the whole edifice, simply cannot be continued,
I have become increasingly concerned since the Brexit vote, on 23rd June 2016 that the ever increasing and very visible changes in the demeanour and attitude of the electors within Europe, which have been steadily building up, post Brexit would reach the point where the whole balance of the European political strengths, moves from the current left wing bias, where Merkel and Co can rule, and into a sharp Right wing ascendancy which will radically alter, the whole future of Europe.
May I immediately clarify that I do not in any way support such a move, but Merkel and the 1,250,000 immigrants that Merkel allowed into Germany have created a huge resentment within Germany and a very great deal of real fear in Germany, and I think the Germans have now realised that their country cannot actually absorb this many refugees.
In consequence the times are definitely A' Changing!!
My personal concern has increasingly become that, the fundamental and continuing problems at the heart of EU may yet cause the EU to begin to crumble before the UK as actually achieved Brexit. I really do think that the reality of the visible failure of the Schengen agreement offering unlimited access for all in Europe ha been recognised as unworkable even within the EU itself.
I have real fears over the consequences that Germany will find in trying to settle that many disaffected non native speaking individuals and I am very doubtful that such an absorption is in fact possible. I believe that the EU is steadily heading towards massive financial and structural difficulties. I really do think that the EU game is up!
It is the steady drip drip drip of the ever increasing concerns in the financial communities with the likes of the desperate and worsening disasters that are the French Banks (Cheers DJRC) the German Banks like Deutsche Bank, the Italian Banks and the Spanish, Portuguese and Greek Bank's that say it all really.
I cannot see this being addressed or redressed in any way whatsoever within the EU because the EU believe that QE printing is all that is needed. I rather think the EU is wrong and we are beginning to see that the consequences are beginning in Europe! Watch this space, I think.!!
Only my very humble opinion, but that is a damn fine post, Steffan.There has been deeply serious structural mismanagement at the epicentre of one of the biggest economic blocs in the world (And it continues) and the consequences could not be more serious for every European! This is never going to be admitted by the EU, but the reality is that confidence in the structures of the EU in its current form are steadily slipping away.
I was fortunate enough to spend time some recently, with a real expert on this nonsense and his view was that the whole edifice is looking ever less and less supportable, as the madness of the huge largesse that has steadily spread throughout the EU has gradually becomes more and more apparent.
His view was that the systems created within the EU from the start, to ensure that comfortable gravy train running all over the EU, which were designed to keep all the apparatchiks, Bureaucrats and EU politicians in clover, without any unpleasant audits etc, et, are reaching the point, where the unaffordability of the whole edifice, simply cannot be continued,
I have become increasingly concerned since the Brexit vote, on 23rd June 2016 that the ever increasing and very visible changes in the demeanour and attitude of the electors within Europe, which have been steadily building up, post Brexit would reach the point where the whole balance of the European political strengths, moves from the current left wing bias, where Merkel and Co can rule, and into a sharp Right wing ascendancy which will radically alter, the whole future of Europe.
May I immediately clarify that I do not in any way support such a move, but Merkel and the 1,250,000 immigrants that Merkel allowed into Germany have created a huge resentment within Germany and a very great deal of real fear in Germany, and I think the Germans have now realised that their country cannot actually absorb this many refugees.
In consequence the times are definitely A' Changing!!
My personal concern has increasingly become that, the fundamental and continuing problems at the heart of EU may yet cause the EU to begin to crumble before the UK as actually achieved Brexit. I really do think that the reality of the visible failure of the Schengen agreement offering unlimited access for all in Europe ha been recognised as unworkable even within the EU itself.
I have real fears over the consequences that Germany will find in trying to settle that many disaffected non native speaking individuals and I am very doubtful that such an absorption is in fact possible. I believe that the EU is steadily heading towards massive financial and structural difficulties. I really do think that the EU game is up!
It is the steady drip drip drip of the ever increasing concerns in the financial communities with the likes of the desperate and worsening disasters that are the French Banks (Cheers DJRC) the German Banks like Deutsche Bank, the Italian Banks and the Spanish, Portuguese and Greek Bank's that say it all really.
I cannot see this being addressed or redressed in any way whatsoever within the EU because the EU believe that QE printing is all that is needed. I rather think the EU is wrong and we are beginning to see that the consequences are beginning in Europe! Watch this space, I think.!!
Back in the days literally many years ago on this topic, when I was defending my view, daily, that the EU/Euro was actually not sustainable such compliments were distinctly lacking, save for a few stalwarts on here who could understad my logic. Most contributors seemed to think I was a barmpot. In Volume!
I rather think that my sanity is a little less doubted now, as the UK steadily moves forward towards Brexit, and the real size and severity of the deeply serious financial disasters hidden away within the EU conglomeration, including the French Banks, Italian Banks, Greek Banks, Spansh, Portugese, Irish Banks and Deutsche Banks are simply way beyond both the ability and the capacity of the EU to manage and control,
If the EU had any idea how to manage these problems they would already have done so! The absolute lack of any effective plan, tells us much more about the hopeless inadequacy of the EU and the absolute in"ability to manage theses problems. If the EU had a solution then it would already have been applied.
The steadily increasing visibility of the impending collapse of Deutsche Bank says it all. Ths is now really beyond the EU.
I am undoubtedly still a compulsive obsessive opinionated garrulous and verbose barmpot. Very often wrong!
But I am bloody well right on this!
Gargamel said:
jshell said:
Is there a good answer to this?
I have literally no idea Though I do love a zerohedge article, Steffan are they paying you a retainer ?
"And on top of it all NOTHING has been fixed financially at all. There is more debt more leverage, more and more liquidity achieving less and less, interest rates are negative, pensions are going nowhere, insurers are grasping for risk even as they fear what it will do to them when the next crisis hits and governments are all, every one of them, preparing their armed forces for widespread civil unrest."
Europe as been every bit as affected by this totally unexpected change and the EU no longer have the control that they need and the confidence of the markets, that they once had. The game is changing, the EU are desperate to hold onto these confidances but they cannot, because the game has changed and their QE fiddles cannot address these problems. Deutsche Bank is clearly bust and the crunch is coming. The EU are powerless in this position.
Major changes are coming and as I reiterated earlier on here my concern now is that Brexit will become entangled within the inevitable EU crunches that are coming. The EU cannot actually address ths problem and in consequence I am now seriously concerned about how this is going to actually pan out. But pan out it will!
I think the beginning of the end of the EU and Euro is rapidly approaching becase the reality of the seriousness and sheer extent of the double dealing and fraud that is at the heart of this nonsense is just too visible now to be continued. It's NOT looking good!! Batten down the hatches and get out of the EU is my fervent hope and suggestion but I am now seriously concerned that matters are developing a pattern of their own which we cannot forecast currently. But I really do think the long term plans of the EU are dead ducks.
jshell said:
Gargamel said:
I am not sure why depositors at Deutsche aren't queuing round the block right now to get their funds out ?
Is there a good answer to this?Surely the sole option is VAST QE and that he Govts buy up that "bad debt" but let it be paid back over huge time frames. That then leaves the banks with only good loans.
So split the banks a bad bank left with the Govt and good banks left trading normally.
We have seen this benefit the UK state - Northern rock only sold the good bank to virgin whereas he govt has held the bad loans in it plus B&Bingley. However by not going down he harsh repossession route instead working practically with the individual to enable them to pay the debt back over much longer time frames or interest only for a period eases the issue. From memory the rate of debt going bad is very low and will in time return a profit to the govt
Once the bad debts are at a low enough risk they can be traded in the open market
So split the banks a bad bank left with the Govt and good banks left trading normally.
We have seen this benefit the UK state - Northern rock only sold the good bank to virgin whereas he govt has held the bad loans in it plus B&Bingley. However by not going down he harsh repossession route instead working practically with the individual to enable them to pay the debt back over much longer time frames or interest only for a period eases the issue. From memory the rate of debt going bad is very low and will in time return a profit to the govt
Once the bad debts are at a low enough risk they can be traded in the open market
As a banking commentary the Alex cartoon often hits some targets.
Here's one for the motoring enthusiasts:
http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoons_id=5...
And the one for today that is someone closer to a couple of matters related that we might have touched on in this thread in recent times.
http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoons_id=5...
I wonder how it might relate to Deutsche Bank?
Enjoy.
Here's one for the motoring enthusiasts:
http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoons_id=5...
And the one for today that is someone closer to a couple of matters related that we might have touched on in this thread in recent times.
http://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoons_id=5...
I wonder how it might relate to Deutsche Bank?
Enjoy.
There was a heartwarming piece on Radio 4 Today programme at 8.37 this morning featuring Jim Mellon, investor and UKIP funder, who simply reinforced many of the points made in this thread re the Euro, Central Bank, Italian debt crisis, German Bank problems etc etc.
His basic premise seemed to be that PM May is playing a blinder by going slow, letting the Eurozone crisis plod on, which will improve our negotiating position as the UK is doing fine and in a far better position than most of the Eurozone.
Deutsche Bank will not be allowed to fail and will most probably be rescued by a back door cobbled together deal whereby the Merkel crowd rescue the bank although its against EU rules.
Perhaps in the end we won't need to negotiate with the EU as there may not be an EU left to negotiate with. Austrian elections, German elections, French elections et al....Hungary putting up border controls and immigration quotas illegal under EU rules, Civil unrest in Germany, Brexit repercussions, it all adds to the pressure.
Cheers,
Tony
His basic premise seemed to be that PM May is playing a blinder by going slow, letting the Eurozone crisis plod on, which will improve our negotiating position as the UK is doing fine and in a far better position than most of the Eurozone.
Deutsche Bank will not be allowed to fail and will most probably be rescued by a back door cobbled together deal whereby the Merkel crowd rescue the bank although its against EU rules.
Perhaps in the end we won't need to negotiate with the EU as there may not be an EU left to negotiate with. Austrian elections, German elections, French elections et al....Hungary putting up border controls and immigration quotas illegal under EU rules, Civil unrest in Germany, Brexit repercussions, it all adds to the pressure.
Cheers,
Tony
Tony427 said:
There was a heartwarming piece on Radio 4 Today programme at 8.37 this morning featuring Jim Mellon, investor and UKIP funder, who simply reinforced many of the points made in this thread re the Euro, Central Bank, Italian debt crisis, German Bank problems etc etc.
His basic premise seemed to be that PM May is playing a blinder by going slow, letting the Eurozone crisis plod on, which will improve our negotiating position as the UK is doing fine and in a far better position than most of the Eurozone.
Deutsche Bank will not be allowed to fail and will most probably be rescued by a back door cobbled together deal whereby the Merkel crowd rescue the bank although its against EU rules.
Perhaps in the end we won't need to negotiate with the EU as there may not be an EU left to negotiate with. Austrian elections, German elections, French elections et al....Hungary putting up border controls and immigration quotas illegal under EU rules, Civil unrest in Germany, Brexit repercussions, it all adds to the pressure.
Cheers,
Tony
Assuming that an orderly exit is the best way forward I think it is safe to assume that no one in the UK or in Europe really understands what is required to untangle the points of regulation that seem to matter. It has not been done before, the framework was never intended to support exits and in any case much has changed since things were set up decades ago, things are still changing and current and near terms events (the elections in Europe next year) mean that no one has any idea who might be negotiating with whom.His basic premise seemed to be that PM May is playing a blinder by going slow, letting the Eurozone crisis plod on, which will improve our negotiating position as the UK is doing fine and in a far better position than most of the Eurozone.
Deutsche Bank will not be allowed to fail and will most probably be rescued by a back door cobbled together deal whereby the Merkel crowd rescue the bank although its against EU rules.
Perhaps in the end we won't need to negotiate with the EU as there may not be an EU left to negotiate with. Austrian elections, German elections, French elections et al....Hungary putting up border controls and immigration quotas illegal under EU rules, Civil unrest in Germany, Brexit repercussions, it all adds to the pressure.
Cheers,
Tony
The Article 50 2 year time allowance no doubt had a number of intentions behind it, one of which was likely to have been the challenge of "national" elections during the period until a full federal integration occurred. Tricky enough with just a handful of countries joining the party. Darned difficult to plan for with nearly 30 - or however many there might be by the time the negotiators are briefed and ready.
Until everyone does start to understand no negotiations would have any meaning.
Trade deals on an international scale take far longer to negotiate than the 2 years allowed by the terms of Article 50 (one has to wonder why, but that's a different discussion.) To expect to deliver and agreed and workable negotiation in just 2 years, in the absence of a well managed and willing group of participants would seem to be extremely optimistic. And indeed not the most pressing of events other than symbolically. It's not as if much would change in reality. Over time one might imagine some divergence - but it's not like there is a wedge of cash that can suddenly be made available for other things.
The greater risk, surely, is that the EU project turns into a serious mess of costs and legally binding commitments before the chains can be unshackled.
In that case looking to the rest of the world for trading opportunities would be even more desirable than normal BUT the RoW may not know what to think about trading with the entire Eurozone if it is in disarray nor how to go about it successfully and reliable.
However there are some countries (or other groupings) out there who might just use the opportunity for their own benefit having no loyalty whatsoever to the UK or the most general concept of "Europe". It could become a very tricky path to walk if UK identity and levels of prosperity are to be retained for current and future generations.
One problem is, to my mind, that after decades (i.e., a number of political generations) of Parliament having little if anything of "importance" to discuss and legislate for, none of the current incumbents has any really useful experience to call on right now.
Thus they must either take the time to work it all out in advance or run a greater risk the entire process falling into a state of chaos and confusion.
One would assume the the current government, if serious about adopting the voter's recommendation to exit, would like the deal to be done before their 5 year term of office expires. Or not, if they really want to stretch things out for whatever reason. The potential for a change of government in mid negotiation is not attractive.
On the other hand, politically no one would want to be heading towards an election that would coincide with the end of planned negotiations and run the risk of a fickle electorate voting against the incumbent "team".
I presume the "strategists" are taking all of these matters and more into account.
Then again, when one reads about a lot of the things that happen under the auspices of "government", perhaps they are not considering everything, only what is politically apposite in the moment.
LongQ said:
I think it is safe to assume that no one in the UK or in Europe really understands what is required to untangle the points of regulation that seem to matter.
The greater risk, surely, is that the EU project turns into a serious mess of costs and legally binding commitments before the chains can be unshackled.
after decades of Parliament having little if anything of "importance" to discuss and legislate for, none of the current incumbents has any really useful experience to call on
I presume the "strategists" are not considering everything, only what is politically apposite in the moment.
^^^This is what worries meThe greater risk, surely, is that the EU project turns into a serious mess of costs and legally binding commitments before the chains can be unshackled.
after decades of Parliament having little if anything of "importance" to discuss and legislate for, none of the current incumbents has any really useful experience to call on
I presume the "strategists" are not considering everything, only what is politically apposite in the moment.
V8RX7 said:
LongQ said:
I think it is safe to assume that no one in the UK or in Europe really understands what is required to untangle the points of regulation that seem to matter.
The greater risk, surely, is that the EU project turns into a serious mess of costs and legally binding commitments before the chains can be unshackled.
after decades of Parliament having little if anything of "importance" to discuss and legislate for, none of the current incumbents has any really useful experience to call on
I presume the "strategists" are not considering everything, only what is politically apposite in the moment.
^^^This is what worries meThe greater risk, surely, is that the EU project turns into a serious mess of costs and legally binding commitments before the chains can be unshackled.
after decades of Parliament having little if anything of "importance" to discuss and legislate for, none of the current incumbents has any really useful experience to call on
I presume the "strategists" are not considering everything, only what is politically apposite in the moment.
I cannot see how Germany can rescue Deutsche Bank from perilous tottering on the point of collapse and still remain within the dictates required by membership of the EU. Nor can I see how Deutsche Bank can continue in business without being rescued. This really could be a permanent and disastrous game changer for the EU.
I must commend the excellent posts from LongQ, AndyZarse and and Tony427, on here and the many contributions from others which all adds to the piquancy of the mix! As V8RX7 suggest in some detail ths really is looking seriously unmanageable by the EU. It will be very interesting to see what transpires. The EU may buy more time with yet more QE madness but the reality of their absolute inability to solve these problems s steadily becoming more and more apparent!
Steffan said:
V8RX7 said:
LongQ said:
I think it is safe to assume that no one in the UK or in Europe really understands what is required to untangle the points of regulation that seem to matter.
The greater risk, surely, is that the EU project turns into a serious mess of costs and legally binding commitments before the chains can be unshackled.
after decades of Parliament having little if anything of "importance" to discuss and legislate for, none of the current incumbents has any really useful experience to call on
I presume the "strategists" are not considering everything, only what is politically apposite in the moment.
^^^This is what worries meThe greater risk, surely, is that the EU project turns into a serious mess of costs and legally binding commitments before the chains can be unshackled.
after decades of Parliament having little if anything of "importance" to discuss and legislate for, none of the current incumbents has any really useful experience to call on
I presume the "strategists" are not considering everything, only what is politically apposite in the moment.
I cannot see how Germany can rescue Deutsche Bank from perilous tottering on the point of collapse and still remain within the dictates required by membership of the EU. Nor can I see how Deutsche Bank can continue in business without being rescued. This really could be a permanent and disastrous game changer for the EU.
I must commend the excellent posts from LongQ, AndyZarse and and Tony427, on here and the many contributions from others which all adds to the piquancy of the mix! As V8RX7 suggest in some detail ths really is looking seriously unmanageable by the EU. It will be very interesting to see what transpires. The EU may buy more time with yet more QE madness but the reality of their absolute inability to solve these problems s steadily becoming more and more apparent!
The things is - at what point do the nominal "rules" become so difficult for everyone involved that you "put them to one side" for a while whilst "sorting out the problem".
If one has arrived at the point where one dies by sticking to the rules that may suggest that the rules are inappropriate for the circumstances - in turn that gives even the most staid and moralistic persons a free pass to bypass them. Completely.
These "rules" are somewhat arbitrary. "A" way of doing something, not the only way to do it.
Might we be seeing the first appearance of a beneficial Supercrisis? Something to rush the entire European Area into a much deeper fiscal and political union? All for one and one for all?
LongQ said:
The things is - at what point do the nominal "rules" become so difficult for everyone involved that you "put them to one side" for a while whilst "sorting out the problem".
If one has arrived at the point where one dies by sticking to the rules that may suggest that the rules are inappropriate for the circumstances - in turn that gives even the most staid and moralistic persons a free pass to bypass them. Completely.
These "rules" are somewhat arbitrary. "A" way of doing something, not the only way to do it.
Is it written in the treaty what the punishment is for failure to comply? For example, were the UK to declare that it will no longer follow a european directive, or refuse to allow free access to eu citizens without a job, what would be the outcome? Or is this all 'tbd' by the european parliament?If one has arrived at the point where one dies by sticking to the rules that may suggest that the rules are inappropriate for the circumstances - in turn that gives even the most staid and moralistic persons a free pass to bypass them. Completely.
These "rules" are somewhat arbitrary. "A" way of doing something, not the only way to do it.
I thought this short blog was an interesting perspective on Deutschebank; in the s
t but not terminal.
https://medium.com/@dsquareddigest/a-quick-deutsch...
t but not terminal.https://medium.com/@dsquareddigest/a-quick-deutsch...
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