Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
Driller said:
Pound hits 31 year low!
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37520631
Blimey sounds a bit ominous, wonder if the end is nigh?
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37520631
Blimey sounds a bit ominous, wonder if the end is nigh?
Clearly not, we survived beyond 1985.
turbobloke said:
Driller said:
Pound hits 31 year low!
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37520631
Blimey sounds a bit ominous, wonder if the end is nigh?
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37520631
Blimey sounds a bit ominous, wonder if the end is nigh?
Clearly not, we survived beyond 1985.
There is only one way this farce can end and it is going to be the death of the Sterling.
How long can they keep kicking the Pound Can down the road.
This nonsense can't possibly go on for much longer etc etc etc...
Let me see, 1985-2016, that's 31 years. Yep, I can imagine us still being here in 31 years with the above still being repeated
As you were.
Case 1 - some people put an X in the 'wrong' box on a voting slip. In response to the economic shock the currency drops. Resulting in reduced imports, increased exports, increased tourism, increased investment - all reducing the shock.
Case 2 - some people borrow a shed load of cash they shouldn't have. In response to the economic shock the currency is unable to drop so none of the above happens. The only things that can be done are unemployment, wage reductions and public spending cuts.
I know which I'd prefer.
Case 2 - some people borrow a shed load of cash they shouldn't have. In response to the economic shock the currency is unable to drop so none of the above happens. The only things that can be done are unemployment, wage reductions and public spending cuts.
I know which I'd prefer.
maffski said:
Case 1 - some people put an X in the 'wrong' box on a voting slip. In response to the economic shock the currency drops. Resulting in reduced imports, increased exports, increased tourism, increased investment - all reducing the shock.
Case 2 - some people borrow a shed load of cash they shouldn't have. In response to the economic shock the currency is unable to drop so none of the above happens. The only things that can be done are unemployment, wage reductions and public spending cuts.
I know which I'd prefer.
Likewise.Case 2 - some people borrow a shed load of cash they shouldn't have. In response to the economic shock the currency is unable to drop so none of the above happens. The only things that can be done are unemployment, wage reductions and public spending cuts.
I know which I'd prefer.
Currencies harden, currencies soften, that's not going to change and even at GBP 1985 levels it's not fatal. The BoE is working for the betterment of one country with its own currency.
The ECB has an impossible task of policymaking that gets 20-odd square pegs into a single round hole while working for the betterment of Das Projekt.
It won't work unless some un-federal edges are shaved off, and attempts to bypass this unpopular move have so far failed to stop the mayhem in Greece and failed to stop the mayhem slowly engulfing other EZ nations.
turbobloke said:
maffski said:
Case 1 - some people put an X in the 'wrong' box on a voting slip. In response to the economic shock the currency drops. Resulting in reduced imports, increased exports, increased tourism, increased investment - all reducing the shock.
Case 2 - some people borrow a shed load of cash they shouldn't have. In response to the economic shock the currency is unable to drop so none of the above happens. The only things that can be done are unemployment, wage reductions and public spending cuts.
I know which I'd prefer.
Likewise.Case 2 - some people borrow a shed load of cash they shouldn't have. In response to the economic shock the currency is unable to drop so none of the above happens. The only things that can be done are unemployment, wage reductions and public spending cuts.
I know which I'd prefer.
Currencies harden, currencies soften, that's not going to change and even at GBP 1985 levels it's not fatal. The BoE is working for the betterment of one country with its own currency.
The ECB has an impossible task of policymaking that gets 20-odd square pegs into a single round hole while working for the betterment of Das Projekt.
It won't work unless some un-federal edges are shaved off, and attempts to bypass this unpopular move have so far failed to stop the mayhem in Greece and failed to stop the mayhem slowly engulfing other EZ nations.
As a matter of fact I believe the turning point has already been reached in the aggrandisement and expansion of the EU as the continuing steadily worsening economic position and poorer quality of life within the failing states within the EU clearly demonstrates. None of these states are going to recover locked witn an unaffordable currency and steadily getting weaker.
The decision by the UK to leave the EU has really highlighted the whole of this nonsense for what it is and reality is coming to dawn over the EU. The consequences are going to be considerable but even in the EU dreamland the regular junkets and stage strutting photo opportunities beloved of the EU and the gravy train apparatchiks and bureaucrats cannot hold this lot together for long!
Driller is giving his views on here and he is most welcome to do so, indeed I read them with interest. However the game changing moment for the future of the EU, has lreay occurred. It was when the first major player, ever to decide to leave the EU, the UK, did so, by referendum last June. That was the point at which the game was up.
Leaving the EU will take time, but the decision has been made and the strength of the EU is falling in consequence. Matter of time the EU has cooked its own Goose.
Steffan said:
However the game changing moment for the future of the EU, has lreay occurred. It was when the first major player, ever to decide to leave the EU, the UK, did so, by referendum last June. That was the point at which the game was up.
Oh? I thought it was Greece and "The Pigs" "Going Bust"?Incidently we haven't spoken about Spain for a while. How is it doing these days after all the doomy comments about it's employment and economy?
Driller said:
Steffan said:
However the game changing moment for the future of the EU, has lreay occurred. It was when the first major player, ever to decide to leave the EU, the UK, did so, by referendum last June. That was the point at which the game was up.
Oh? I thought it was Greece and "The Pigs" "Going Bust"?Incidently we haven't spoken about Spain for a while. How is it doing these days after all the doomy comments about it's employment and economy?
Near 50% youth unemployment
Banks in perilous state with no plan to fix it
Not meeting the deficit requirement by the EU
Continued issue with separatists.
Greece is not fixed nor can it be.
The PIGS are getting worse and worse not staying steady or improving
Welshbeef said:
Driller said:
Steffan said:
However the game changing moment for the future of the EU, has lreay occurred. It was when the first major player, ever to decide to leave the EU, the UK, did so, by referendum last June. That was the point at which the game was up.
Oh? I thought it was Greece and "The Pigs" "Going Bust"?Incidently we haven't spoken about Spain for a while. How is it doing these days after all the doomy comments about it's employment and economy?
Near 50% youth unemployment
Banks in perilous state with no plan to fix it
Not meeting the deficit requirement by the EU
Continued issue with separatists.
Greece is not fixed nor can it be.
The PIGS are getting worse and worse not staying steady or improving
FN2TypeR said:
Only 43% youth unemployment in Spain now!
As these posts suggest the awful cost to Spain and the other failing states of trying to remain within an unaffordable economic grouping is visibly disastrous. As turbobloke suggests, in his postings, this is not actually working for these failing states. Matter of time. Driller said:
turbobloke said:
Driller said:
Pound hits 31 year low!
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37520631
Blimey sounds a bit ominous, wonder if the end is nigh?
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37520631
Blimey sounds a bit ominous, wonder if the end is nigh?
Clearly not, we survived beyond 1985.
There is only one way this farce can end and it is going to be the death of the Sterling.
How long can they keep kicking the Pound Can down the road.
This nonsense can't possibly go on for much longer etc etc etc...
Let me see, 1985-2016, that's 31 years. Yep, I can imagine us still being here in 31 years with the above still being repeated
As you were.
It's all very well you cherry picking Spain, and jolly good luck to them, but the southern EU nations had fallen so far the surprise is why only Spain has seen any real growth. The answer, of course, lies elsewhere, in hair-shirt policies imposed an unnamed country further north, hein? Whilst the UK is the current scapegoat of choice because of Brexit, it is also true that its far greater economic growth since 2013 will have helped the countries that follow its trajectory such as Ireland and Spain.
So in my view a lot of effort and capital has been expended by the ECB for not much growth, so maybe it is a contender on the list of the most expensive PR campaigns in history. All you need to do is tell us what happens when the worm turns...
Possibly, the markets are going to have a type of taper tantrum but there are dangers for the ECB and it's another sign of how little recovery the EU has actually had. Also it is my opinion that Mario and the ECB want this and have behaved in such a manner as to get bond markets to fall and ease their capital key problem. That is a dangerous game as not everything can be centrally planned and controlled, and they may yet find that they are holding a tiger by the tail.
Edited by Andy Zarse on Wednesday 5th October 10:40
Andy Zarse said:
So what happens in 2-3 years when the world economic cycle turns, probably into a mild recession? My biggest issue for the EU is that during this so-called growth phase we are continuing to enjoy, the EU nations with one or two exceptions (guess who!) have done very poorly. Indeed most southern economies such as Italy have in fact gone backwards. Now, despite Mario pushing so hard on the accelerator his foot has gone through the carpet, still they struggle.
It's all very well you cherry picking Spain, and jolly good luck to them, but the southern EU nations had fallen so far the surprise is why only Spain has seen any real growth. The answer, of course, lies elsewhere, in hair-shirt policies imposed an unnamed country further north, hein? Whilst the UK is the current scapegoat of choice because of Brexit, it is also true that its far greater economic growth since 2013 will have helped the countries that follow its trajectory such as Ireland and Spain.
So in my view a lot of effort and capital has been expended by the ECB for not much growth, so maybe it is a contender on the list of the most expensive PR campaigns in history. All you need to do is tell us what happens when the worm turns...
Possibly, the markets are going to have a type of taper tantrum but there are dangers for the ECB and it's another sign of how little recovery the EU has actually had. Also it is my opinion that Mario and the ECB want this and have behaved in such a manner as to get bond markets to fall and ease their capital key problem. That is a dangerous game as not everything can be centrally planned and controlled, and they may yet find that they are holding a tiger by the tail.
All good points that I agree with Andy! It's all very well you cherry picking Spain, and jolly good luck to them, but the southern EU nations had fallen so far the surprise is why only Spain has seen any real growth. The answer, of course, lies elsewhere, in hair-shirt policies imposed an unnamed country further north, hein? Whilst the UK is the current scapegoat of choice because of Brexit, it is also true that its far greater economic growth since 2013 will have helped the countries that follow its trajectory such as Ireland and Spain.
So in my view a lot of effort and capital has been expended by the ECB for not much growth, so maybe it is a contender on the list of the most expensive PR campaigns in history. All you need to do is tell us what happens when the worm turns...
Possibly, the markets are going to have a type of taper tantrum but there are dangers for the ECB and it's another sign of how little recovery the EU has actually had. Also it is my opinion that Mario and the ECB want this and have behaved in such a manner as to get bond markets to fall and ease their capital key problem. That is a dangerous game as not everything can be centrally planned and controlled, and they may yet find that they are holding a tiger by the tail.
Edited by Andy Zarse on Wednesday 5th October 10:40
I was really rather playing devil's advocate with the pound thing though
Interesting article about the Bundesbank and why Germany needs to keep free trade with Britain post-Brexit.
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/uks-brexit-...
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/uks-brexit-...
Master Investor said:
As of July 2016 the Bundesbank’s unsecured overdraft facility in favour of TARGET2 stood at an astonishing €660 billion. This sum of money is, in Herr Beck’s words, unlikely ever to be repaid… Germany’s trade surplus with the Eurozone therefore is little more than a massive accounting trick.
ChrisW_77 said:
Interesting article about the Bundesbank and why Germany needs to keep free trade with Britain post-Brexit.
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/uks-brexit-...
It's one thing fooling the Rest of the World when playing the game of economic balance ... something else entirely when you are trying to con your own team ....https://masterinvestor.co.uk/economics/uks-brexit-...
Master Investor said:
As of July 2016 the Bundesbank’s unsecured overdraft facility in favour of TARGET2 stood at an astonishing €660 billion. This sum of money is, in Herr Beck’s words, unlikely ever to be repaid… Germany’s trade surplus with the Eurozone therefore is little more than a massive accounting trick.
Makes Bernie Madoff look like a saint.
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