Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[loafer123]

Driller said:

You guys are incredible.

When the Euro weakens "it's doomed", when the pound weakens it's " doing what it's supposed to do".

It's like the BBC article saying the recent fall in the pound was due to a "stray algorithm"

The Euro isn't doomed because of its relative strength or weakness in the market now. It is doomed because it is designed for fiscal integration and a federal superstate structure like the US, but is made up of a disparate collection of countries, cultures, languages, fiscal approaches and economies.

The Euro will survive if they follow the path of political and economic integration, but I don't think the people of Europe will let them.

[turbobloke]

Driller said:

You guys are incredible.

Driller said:

When the Euro weakens "it's doomed", when the pound weakens it's " doing what it's supposed to do".

It's like the BBC article saying the recent fall in the pound was due to a "stray algorithm"

Carp swimming at the surface today.

loafer123 said:

The Euro isn't doomed because of its relative strength or weakness in the market now. It is doomed because it is designed for fiscal integration and a federal superstate structure like the US, but is made up of a disparate collection of countries, cultures, languages, fiscal approaches and economies.

The Euro will survive if they follow the path of political and economic integration, but I don't think the people of Europe will let them.

[Steffan]

turbobloke said:

Driller said:

You guys are incredible.

Driller said:

When the Euro weakens "it's doomed", when the pound weakens it's " doing what it's supposed to do".

It's like the BBC article saying the recent fall in the pound was due to a "stray algorithm"

Carp swimming at the surface today.

loafer123 said:

The Euro isn't doomed because of its relative strength or weakness in the market now. It is doomed because it is designed for fiscal integration and a federal superstate structure like the US, but is made up of a disparate collection of countries, cultures, languages, fiscal approaches and economies.

The Euro will survive if they follow the path of political and economic integration, but I don't think the people of Europe will let them.

Particularly apposite comments by turbobloke and loafer123 are absolutely spot on in reflecting the deeply serious problem that is contained within the combination of the EU grouping and the Euro currency . Without fiscal integration the EU cannot manage the currency and as loafer123 suggests that is not happening nor will it because the electors within the EU are not supportive of that move.nn

The falling Pound Sterling is steadily making exporting by the UK ever more competative in overseas markets. There are major advantages in having a floating currency which censures a self balancing effect. The problem the EU and the countries locked within the Euro have, is that fiscal independence and self governing spending cannot continue which is why the EU have attacked the Irsh/Apple taxation agreements as unlawful.

My thought are turning once again as to whether the UK can extract itself from this grouping, before the grouping itself starts to fall apart? I have my doubts i regret to say. We are watching a major political failure coming up within the EU, as the reality of the myriad of hidden problems, witn the EU, becomes apparent. The EU will not be able to hold this together and it has become a matter of time.

[Welshbeef]

You have to wonder if War is coming and a big one at that.

The tensions are there those who have those who don't and some countries dictating to others what they can and cannot spend.
You have a massive issue of freedom of movement again all linked to those that have and those that don't.
We have a fking retarded attitude to our Russian neighbours. We have to be totally pragmatic - we the West USA UK France etc have failed on many wars previously and so have Russia too but to now bemoan Russia for crimes/failures we are guilty of is idiotic. Sadly I think the lion is now out of the cage in this regard so we need to be respectful of them and their interests. Failure to do so could mean big problems for decades to come for what at the end of the day.

Disunity
financial woe
Mass unemployment
Mass automation removing roles
Protectionist economic policies
Disengagement with mainstream political parties.

To me it's got the tell tale signs it's like watching a slomotion accident and no one appears to have the political will to stop these cause of events.

[alfie2244]

Welshbeef said:

You have to wonder if War is coming and a big one at that.

Worthy of it's own thread IMO.

[Kawasicki]

Welshbeef said:

You have to wonder if War is coming and a big one at that.

The tensions are there those who have those who don't and some countries dictating to others what they can and cannot spend.
You have a massive issue of freedom of movement again all linked to those that have and those that don't.
We have a fking retarded attitude to our Russian neighbours. We have to be totally pragmatic - we the West USA UK France etc have failed on many wars previously and so have Russia too but to now bemoan Russia for crimes/failures we are guilty of is idiotic. Sadly I think the lion is now out of the cage in this regard so we need to be respectful of them and their interests. Failure to do so could mean big problems for decades to come for what at the end of the day.

Disunity
financial woe
Mass unemployment
Mass automation removing roles
Protectionist economic policies
Disengagement with mainstream political parties.

To me it's got the tell tale signs it's like watching a slomotion accident and no one appears to have the political will to stop these cause of events.

Good post. Sometimes I get the feeling that people are bored with the status quo.

[LongQ]

loafer123 said:

Driller said:

You guys are incredible.

When the Euro weakens "it's doomed", when the pound weakens it's " doing what it's supposed to do".

It's like the BBC article saying the recent fall in the pound was due to a "stray algorithm"

The Euro isn't doomed because of its relative strength or weakness in the market now. It is doomed because it is designed for fiscal integration and a federal superstate structure like the US, but is made up of a disparate collection of countries, cultures, languages, fiscal approaches and economies.

The Euro will survive if they follow the path of political and economic integration, but I don't think the people of Europe will let them.

But who will be the people of Europe at the point when the fiscal and social compact looks like it might be crumbling?

[loafer123]

LongQ said:

loafer123 said:

Driller said:

You guys are incredible.

When the Euro weakens "it's doomed", when the pound weakens it's " doing what it's supposed to do".

It's like the BBC article saying the recent fall in the pound was due to a "stray algorithm"

The Euro isn't doomed because of its relative strength or weakness in the market now. It is doomed because it is designed for fiscal integration and a federal superstate structure like the US, but is made up of a disparate collection of countries, cultures, languages, fiscal approaches and economies.

The Euro will survive if they follow the path of political and economic integration, but I don't think the people of Europe will let them.

But who will be the people of Europe at the point when the fiscal and social compact looks like it might be crumbling?

That is a very good question.

I have argued for an associate membership in the past. It would allow the weakest, like Greece, to exit the Euro elegantly, and the non-Euro countries to trade and generate economic growth, whilst the core Euro countries get closer and closer.

Unfortunately that doesn't fit the goals of the politicians in charge.

[Steffan]

loafer123 said:

LongQ said:

loafer123 said:

Driller said:

You guys are incredible.

When the Euro weakens "it's doomed", when the pound weakens it's " doing what it's supposed to do".

It's like the BBC article saying the recent fall in the pound was due to a "stray algorithm"

The Euro isn't doomed because of its relative strength or weakness in the market now. It is doomed because it is designed for fiscal integration and a federal superstate structure like the US, but is made up of a disparate collection of countries, cultures, languages, fiscal approaches and economies.

The Euro will survive if they follow the path of political and economic integration, but I don't think the people of Europe will let them.

But who will be the people of Europe at the point when the fiscal and social compact looks like it might be crumbling?

That is a very good question.

I have argued for an associate membership in the past. It would allow the weakest, like Greece, to exit the Euro elegantly, and the non-Euro countries to trade and generate economic growth, whilst the core Euro countries get closer and closer.

Unfortunately that doesn't fit the goals of the politicians in charge.

I do agree with the comments of both LongQ and loafer123 on this matter.

As loafer123 suggests the goals of the politicians who are in charge are very different from the goals of the Leave voters in the June Referendum in the UK. As LongQ suggests in his comments it seems highly unlikely that the EU electorate are going to support much more of this EU aggrandisement. One way of another major change is coming to the EU and the beloved games of lots of Junkets ad loads of gravy train earnings are coming to a stop. Matter of time I think the glory days of the EU are gone.

Latest news from Deutsche Bank are not looking at all good see

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-10/ecb-allow...

 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/deutsche-bank-ceo-returns-home-empty-handed-after-failing-reach-deal-doj-bild

Not looking at all rosy is it!

Too many problems and totally insufficient solutions I suggest. Trouble is coming in volume for the EU.

[LongQ]

Steffan said:

loafer123 said:

LongQ said:

loafer123 said:

Driller said:

You guys are incredible.

When the Euro weakens "it's doomed", when the pound weakens it's " doing what it's supposed to do".

It's like the BBC article saying the recent fall in the pound was due to a "stray algorithm"

The Euro isn't doomed because of its relative strength or weakness in the market now. It is doomed because it is designed for fiscal integration and a federal superstate structure like the US, but is made up of a disparate collection of countries, cultures, languages, fiscal approaches and economies.

The Euro will survive if they follow the path of political and economic integration, but I don't think the people of Europe will let them.

But who will be the people of Europe at the point when the fiscal and social compact looks like it might be crumbling?

That is a very good question.

I have argued for an associate membership in the past. It would allow the weakest, like Greece, to exit the Euro elegantly, and the non-Euro countries to trade and generate economic growth, whilst the core Euro countries get closer and closer.

Unfortunately that doesn't fit the goals of the politicians in charge.

I do agree with the comments of both LongQ and loafer123 on this matter.

As loafer123 suggests the goals of the politicians who are in charge are very different from the goals of the Leave voters in the June Referendum in the UK. As LongQ suggests in his comments it seems highly unlikely that the EU electorate are going to support much more of this EU aggrandisement. One way of another major change is coming to the EU and the beloved games of lots of Junkets ad loads of gravy train earnings are coming to a stop. Matter of time I think the glory days of the EU are gone.

Latest news from Deutsche Bank are not looking at all good see

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-10/ecb-allow...

 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/deutsche-bank-ceo-returns-home-empty-handed-after-failing-reach-deal-doj-bild

Not looking at all rosy is it!

Too many problems and totally insufficient solutions I suggest. Trouble is coming in volume for the EU.

I think that the question of Who are Europeans, looking ahead, may be somewhat more nuanced

If you think of what we call British values and then extend that to what "European Values" might mean and then consider the question of migration, whether temporary or permanent one might start to wonder how the values of "Europeans" might change of the next generation or so.

The balance of values - if there is such a thing generation on generation in the modern world is almost certain to shift over the period of a generation or two.

With Europe generally breeding quite slowly, a generation in a low reproduction population might now be in excess of 30 years on average. In other parts of the world it might still be closer to 15 years, 20 being normal.

With significant influx or young people of breeding age (and assuming they can find mates to breed with) the balance of "values" may shift quite rapidly. We are talking of the ability of minorities to grow large enough to influence decisions akin to the the influence of "floating voters" in elections.

Even within European countries the balance could change significantly. For example I have read that 2 million young Poles have left Poland in recent times. Presumably that would suggest 2 million young people of breeding age, thus explaining why the Polish birthrate is now even lower than Germany's.

So if we just think about what might happen in, say, 20 years, the proportion of the population who would see their traditions and family history existing outside the UK or Europe could increase quite significantly just as the largest demographic (older people who probably have the strongest hold on European Tradition) starts to decline post baby boomer generation thus forcing an ever faster change in the "balance" with no way for any lost birth decades to be recovered from the low breeder rate generations.

When that balance changes, assuming that migratory movement is not significantly reversed for any reason at any point before then, who can predict which way the "European" population might vote for by way of changes - assuming that democracy, or the appearance of democracy, is still something to be clung to as far as public perception is concerned.

I think the coming generations will be living in interesting times.

Whether any of them will be living in a "Europe" as we currently experience it is not easy to predict.

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

Steffan said:

loafer123 said:

LongQ said:

loafer123 said:

Driller said:

You guys are incredible.

When the Euro weakens "it's doomed", when the pound weakens it's " doing what it's supposed to do".

It's like the BBC article saying the recent fall in the pound was due to a "stray algorithm"

The Euro isn't doomed because of its relative strength or weakness in the market now. It is doomed because it is designed for fiscal integration and a federal superstate structure like the US, but is made up of a disparate collection of countries, cultures, languages, fiscal approaches and economies.

The Euro will survive if they follow the path of political and economic integration, but I don't think the people of Europe will let them.

But who will be the people of Europe at the point when the fiscal and social compact looks like it might be crumbling?

That is a very good question.

I have argued for an associate membership in the past. It would allow the weakest, like Greece, to exit the Euro elegantly, and the non-Euro countries to trade and generate economic growth, whilst the core Euro countries get closer and closer.

Unfortunately that doesn't fit the goals of the politicians in charge.

I do agree with the comments of both LongQ and loafer123 on this matter.

As loafer123 suggests the goals of the politicians who are in charge are very different from the goals of the Leave voters in the June Referendum in the UK. As LongQ suggests in his comments it seems highly unlikely that the EU electorate are going to support much more of this EU aggrandisement. One way of another major change is coming to the EU and the beloved games of lots of Junkets ad loads of gravy train earnings are coming to a stop. Matter of time I think the glory days of the EU are gone.

Latest news from Deutsche Bank are not looking at all good see

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-10/ecb-allow...

 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/deutsche-bank-ceo-returns-home-empty-handed-after-failing-reach-deal-doj-bild

Not looking at all rosy is it!

Too many problems and totally insufficient solutions I suggest. Trouble is coming in volume for the EU.

I think that the question of Who are Europeans, looking ahead, may be somewhat more nuanced

If you think of what we call British values and then extend that to what "European Values" might mean and then consider the question of migration, whether temporary or permanent one might start to wonder how the values of "Europeans" might change of the next generation or so.

The balance of values - if there is such a thing generation on generation in the modern world is almost certain to shift over the period of a generation or two.

With Europe generally breeding quite slowly, a generation in a low reproduction population might now be in excess of 30 years on average. In other parts of the world it might still be closer to 15 years, 20 being normal.

With significant influx or young people of breeding age (and assuming they can find mates to breed with) the balance of "values" may shift quite rapidly. We are talking of the ability of minorities to grow large enough to influence decisions akin to the the influence of "floating voters" in elections.

Even within European countries the balance could change significantly. For example I have read that 2 million young Poles have left Poland in recent times. Presumably that would suggest 2 million young people of breeding age, thus explaining why the Polish birthrate is now even lower than Germany's.

So if we just think about what might happen in, say, 20 years, the proportion of the population who would see their traditions and family history existing outside the UK or Europe could increase quite significantly just as the largest demographic (older people who probably have the strongest hold on European Tradition) starts to decline post baby boomer generation thus forcing an ever faster change in the "balance" with no way for any lost birth decades to be recovered from the low breeder rate generations.

When that balance changes, assuming that migratory movement is not significantly reversed for any reason at any point before then, who can predict which way the "European" population might vote for by way of changes - assuming that democracy, or the appearance of democracy, is still something to be clung to as far as public perception is concerned.

I think the coming generations will be living in interesting times.

Whether any of them will be living in a "Europe" as we currently experience it is not easy to predict.

Very interesting informative and balanced posting from LongQ and I wholeheartedly support his comments. The reality of the accuracy and wisdom contained within his post really is exceptionally apposite and I commend the reading and rereading of his posts to every reader of thread.

You will see nothing like the measured and considered post from LongQ and many others on here
elsewhere and it is the quality and lucdity of such postings that have made this such an enjoyable taskfor me. The fact is that few if any of the mainstream media actually have the knowledge required to emulate such postings.

As LongQ says whether "Europe" will be anything like it has been recently is indeed not at all easy to predict. Huge changes are inevitable within Europe because of all the fraudulent misrepresentation by the EU of the reality of the hoplessly impoverished failing states that has been deliberately hidden by the EU to buy more time for them to continue to receive their monumental earnings (!!) and the devil take the hindmost approach. Not for much longer I suggest. But what will replace this, I really cannot say.

Turning to todays events the falling sterling values overnight are a bit of a challenge! The Stock Exchange has also risen exceptionally to the highet point for some years, falling back a little, but nevertheless much higher than before these events? Has anyone, any thoughts, on where this might be leading? Interesting and challenging times indeed! The politicians have, perhaps unsurprisingly, been conspicuous by their absence! Any reactions as to where this is all leading?

[loafer123]

Markets hate uncertainty and the GBP is being punished by investors running scared of the unknown.

One thing is certain and that is that the effect of uncertainty doesn't last. One of three things happen;

1 certainty - the way forward becomes clear, and the markets can accurately price the outcome
2 fatigue - the markets get used to the uncertainty and realise that it isn't likely to be the end of the world
3 intervention - governmental and/or international bodies take action to trigger a rebalancing

Whether we have overshot yet is a whole different question...

[AstonZagato]

Feels oversold in the short-term.

However, something negative on Brexit would see it becoming more oversold.

[loafer123]

AstonZagato said:

Feels oversold in the short-term.

However, something negative on Brexit would see it becoming more oversold.

That is the interesting thing, though. The markets are arguably pricing in Hard Brexit, the basis of which is already certain, so what would worse be for the markets?

[B'stard Child]

loafer123 said:

AstonZagato said:

Feels oversold in the short-term.

However, something negative on Brexit would see it becoming more oversold.

That is the interesting thing, though. The markets are arguably pricing in Hard Brexit, the basis of which is already certain, so what would worse be for the markets?

Similar to the market circumstances after the result of the Referendum

The market expected a remain - some adjustment (that would have been taken much earlier over a period of time had the polls indicated the true potential result) was rapidly actioned

So some gradual further adjustments in the weeks following have rapidly accelerated as the potential for an exit with no deal becomes a realistic possibility.

If there is a deal some correction the other way could be reasonably expected

Bumpy ride for sure - anyone expecting any different??

[B'stard Child]

I'm waiting for the effects (of the expected fall out in the EU) to start hitting the Euro........

Another Greek Bail out
Elections in 2017

Right now the EU appears to be the stronger currency but it's not looking great if you look at 6 mths

[LongQ]

There are piles of sources of crap heading down the chutes at the moment.

Whichever is the easiest to play on the day will get the most attention.

What next?

US Election/Syria and Putin/German Banking system/Anniversary of Paris Terrorist strike/Philippines Politics/Samsung Phones and Whirlpool Dryers destroying consumer faith in big companies/UK consumers realising that they don't actually NEED so many new cars that all look the same?

(Ok the last one may not be that significant ..... but this is PH.)

The first 3 or possibly could easily have people forgetting all of their worries about Brexit have been significant. (Unless they don't have any fears and are just playing a game for the benefit of the next Soros.)

[911gary]

Welshbeef said:

You have to wonder if War is coming and a big one at that.

The tensions are there those who have those who don't and some countries dictating to others what they can and cannot spend.
You have a massive issue of freedom of movement again all linked to those that have and those that don't.
We have a fking retarded attitude to our Russian neighbours. We have to be totally pragmatic - we the West USA UK France etc have failed on many wars previously and so have Russia too but to now bemoan Russia for crimes/failures we are guilty of is idiotic. Sadly I think the lion is now out of the cage in this regard so we need to be respectful of them and their interests. Failure to do so could mean big problems for decades to come for what at the end of the day.

Disunity
financial woe
Mass unemployment
Mass automation removing roles
Protectionist economic policies
Disengagement with mainstream political parties.

To me it's got the tell tale signs it's like watching a slomotion accident and no one appears to have the political will to stop these cause of events.

I agree.

[rovermorris999]

Slightly off topic but an interesting article about the effect of Brexit on the EU.
http://capx.co/bost-brexit-brussels/

[turbobloke]

rovermorris999 said:

Slightly off topic but an interesting article about the effect of Brexit on the EU.
http://capx.co/bost-brexit-brussels/

Thanks for the link.