Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[Gargamel]

I think domestic politics plays a bigger role in the timing of Article 50, rather then "foreign" elections. May to some extent has an uneasy coalition of Conservative MPs to coral. Plus the longer nothing happens the greater the uncertainty. Which in general terms is a bad thing.

Moving to trigger, starting negotiations and then going slowly whilst EU politics plays out, might be a better way of focusing the EU leaders on the impact of a major player leaving, and think themselves about how their position will play with their own electorates back home.

EG France talking tough at EU level, when likely they will have to step up EU funding, will not play well in France domestic politics. Nor in Germany.

The posturing (on both sides) is slightly tiresome, though I think the comment about asking for a Pony and being bid down to a puppy is probably the right call.

Trying to explain to the EU leaders how inflexibility in policy and meaningful reform has led to this, is like trying to teach Hindi to a Beagle.

Re the FTSE, certainly too high at present, Hope the BOE gets in soon and raises interest rates, we are going to have inflation again with the level of the pound so low. (Eg Oil & Petrol prices will rise)

[911gary]

I have to say and offer congratulations to Steffan for one of the most long lived and well contributed forums Ive had the pleasure of reading with some excellent posts from the main contributors,I have been off it for a few months but have enjoyed catching up with the many pages, our news media could learn a lot from this forum IMHO well done chaps 3 volumes the last running to 426 pages amazing.

Edited by 911gary on Thursday 13th October 09:54

[Digga]

Incredible story, if true.

zerohedge said:

France's Hollande Reveals "Tsipras Wanted To Print Drachmas In Russia"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-14/frances-hollande-reveals-tsipras-wanted-print-drachmas-russia

[The Don of Croy]

I worry that our politicians - like all those before them - are less than straightforward in speaking to us (the great unwashed) and quite happy to cobble together some unsavoury deal which can be produced at the eleventh hour to 'save us from ruin'.

Thus we have the two years of Article 50 negotiations to look forward to, during which they'll alternate between hard and soft, see how the markets go (but likely they've already had the plan agreed and it's all done for effect) whilst we are softened up.

Cynical in the extreme, I know, but I really don't trust any of them (with maybe one or two exceptions).

I settle on these types of fanciful ideas when thinking back over the EEC/CM/EU evolution and how that was portrayed to 'us' in each member state, and how far they've pushed it - until June - with little restraint.

Time to visit the gold thread and see what's occurring.

[Steffan]

911gary said:

I have to say and offer congratulations to Steffan for one of the most long lived and well contributed forums Ive had the pleasure of reading with some excellent posts from the main contributors,I have been off it for a few months but have enjoyed catching up with the many pages, our news media could learn a lot from this forum IMHO well done chaps 3 volumes the last running to 426 pages amazing.
l

Edited by 911gary on Thursday 13th October 09:54

I do appreciate your very kind moments. In the early days f this thread i received a LOT of very kind support and encouragement from a significant number of posters on PH. Well recieved by me because the abuse was considerable. At the time i was trying to rebut all these nonsense comments, which eventually made me start referring to the whole m,EU shebang as the "Nonsense", which rightly I think. It seems to have stuck!

I have also read the comments of TheDonOfCroy and I am delighted to see from the comments on here that a number of contributors, recognise the reality of the wholly unsustainable position that so many failing states witn the EU are heading into. Sadly financial collapse is the only way I can see reality returning to the EU. When Greece, France, Spain, Portugal, and Italy are already visibly failing and even Germany with the Deutsche Bank affair are looking at a very expensive under the table bail out or deeply serious consequences to their Banking strengths, hopefully, (but very improbably) hidden from view then something is obviously totally wrong.
j
This nonsense has been teetering on the edge of discovery for some years and the EU blithely continuing to bail out Greece, when by any assessement Greece is totally insolvent is madness. Greece never will recover, because Greece never could afford to survive unaided within EU.

The British decision to leave the EU has seriously reduced the remaining strength of the EU. Brexit may well prove to be an expensive exercise with the EU looking for naximimum penalties and obstructive efforts to dissuade any other countries from following the same path. But the die is cast IMO and the EU ad Euro are both living on borrowed time. Change is coming to Europe and no amount of shenanigans and QE printing is going to put this nonsense back together again. Matter of time.

Edited by Steffan on Friday 14th October 18:14

[LongQ]

I slightly strange report about Greece from the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37648935

The end in particular where the person being questioned asserts that most Greeks are totally Pro Europe and Euro.

Apart from the thought that they really have no option now that they are so deeply into the international debt culture, one has to wonder whether this is because the speaker is indeed one of many who genuinely believe in the European Project or that they have, all along, seen the the Eu/Euro as a relatively easy life most of the time so long as it does not become unbalanced - as it is now.

As for the "multiple generations living in the same house" comments earlier in the piece - is that so different from any other country at the moment?

It may have a greater day to day impact on lifestyle expectancy but culturally it's hardly an outlier that determines unusual living conditions is it?

One starts to wonder what sort of reporting can be used as a basis for comparison between countries and lifestyle expectations for changes over the periods of an economic cycle.

[Digga]

Parents are out with the Greek relatives right now, so will be interesting to get the reports back from them. I have come across the dichotomy before though; they know the Euro project has shafted them in many ways, but are also hugely reluctant to relinquish the currency.mi think there's a strong, collective memory of the social cost of having an unstable domestic currency.

[LongQ]

Digga said:

Parents are out with the Greek relatives right now, so will be interesting to get the reports back from them. I have come across the dichotomy before though; they know the Euro project has shafted them in many ways, but are also hugely reluctant to relinquish the currency.mi think there's a strong, collective memory of the social cost of having an unstable domestic currency.

I sometimes wonder if we in the "western" economies are losing, or have lost, the collective will to survive and the individual will to take issue with a nannying State machine.

To accept "Nanny" and all she wants to do is an easy way to have someone else take the responsibility and make all of the decisions.

A Nanny philosophy state understand that and the need to keep people oppressed as much as is acceptable without appearing too overt. Take away expectation or even hope of self determination at all levels and personal responsibility becomes somewhat pointless for the majority of the populace as individuals.

If you stand out from the crowd you become a target - not something that most people would relish on other people's terms.

So you here people say "it is what it is" or "nothing I can do about it" and they are, frequently, correct. Eventually some sort of extreme happening my foment some type of revolution, but in the main the majority of people tend to accept the "the authority" will win and even "they are the people in the know so they must be right".

It is in Nanny's interest to keep them thinking like that - reinforcing that impression at every opportunity.

It strikes me that the Greek IMF relationship is pure theatre. Making loans to pay off old loans is somewhat meaningless but it provide an opportunity for self promotion and sending messages "pour les autres" on a recurring basis and so serves various purposes for those involved to do with prestige and power reinforcement.

Right now I have to wonder whether a resolution to the problem is really what anyone is looking for.

[BlackLabel]

The European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of monetary union has warned."One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency.

[LongQ]

BlackLabel said:

The European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of monetary union has warned."One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency.

Yes, but what does he know?

[Digga]

LongQ said:

Yes, but what does he know?

And if his opinion was not sufficiently damning, Delors has chimed in to say in its current form, the Euro cannot survive.

Edited by Digga on Monday 17th October 19:53

[superlightr]

LongQ said:

Right now I have to wonder whether a resolution to the problem is really what anyone is looking for.

It isn't and hasn't been for decades. Its a big long gravy train party only now they are trying to move the train off the main track into a siding as they can see the edge of the cliff looming. The carriages are starting to detach with the UK at the end casting free and controlling itself slowing down away from the train wreck that's going to happen. Will we stop in time fek knows. Certainly it will be less of an impact.

It power,money and more feking money with no accountability that's keeping the EU going and chugging along the ones driving it want the money so they can retire and jump. I sincerely think they have no real interest in the democratic ways of individual countries and Nanny state knows best. Clearly being the elite of the elite it panders to their ego and wallets. Why would they want it to end? Its a feking disaster with our money and they know it.

[Driller]

Meanwhile,

Pound fall a 'shock absorber', says BoE's Ben Broadbent

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37675907

[anonymous-user]

Driller said:

Meanwhile,

Pound fall a 'shock absorber', says BoE's Ben Broadbent

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37675907

Why the laughing smiley?

[paul789]

LongQ said:

BlackLabel said:

The European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of monetary union has warned."One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency.

Yes, but what does he know?

Ignore him, he's an expert.

[turbobloke]

paul789 said:

LongQ said:

BlackLabel said:

The European Central Bank is becoming dangerously over-extended and the whole euro project is unworkable in its current form, the founding architect of monetary union has warned."One day, the house of cards will collapse,” said Professor Otmar Issing, the ECB's first chief economist and a towering figure in the construction of the single currency.

Yes, but what does he know?

Ignore him, he's an expert.

See under 'Feynman'.

[anonymous-user]

Gargamel said:

Yes, and by Autumn

Post 1, over 3 years ago...
I bet its still going in 2020

[Driller]

fblm said:

Driller said:

Meanwhile,

Pound fall a 'shock absorber', says BoE's Ben Broadbent

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37675907

Why the laughing smiley?

Propaganda. If the pound had stayed strong the speech would be "look at this, inspite of all the fears of Brexit, the British economy is staying competitive" or whatever.

[Digga]

Driller said:

fblm said:

Driller said:

Meanwhile,

Pound fall a 'shock absorber', says BoE's Ben Broadbent

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37675907

Why the laughing smiley?

Propaganda. If the pound had stayed strong the speech would be "look at this, inspite of all the fears of Brexit, the British economy is staying competitive" or whatever.

It's all very fluid right now. Renimbi is weakening, uncertainty in US elections, uncertainty with sterling, uncertainty in the Eurozone.
https://twitter.com/notayesmansecon/status/7882820...

[Borghetto]

Driller said:

Propaganda. If the pound had stayed strong the speech would be "look at this, inspite of all the fears of Brexit, the British economy is staying competitive" or whatever.

I don't doubt you are right, but how is their statement wrong. Free floating currencies are mean't to float and when they drop in value this allows the country to gain a competitive advantage. It does of course come at a price of higher inflation and making imports much more expensive, no bad thing given our balance of payments deficit. We are already seeing a surge in tourists in London going on shopping sprees, we'll probably see less foreign holidays by Brits and more people coming here to spend their higher value currencies. So shock absorber sounds a pretty accurate description to me; if only Club Med could have devalued their currencies, they would be in a much better position than they currently are.